Fantasy Sports Writers Association Hall-of-Famer Bob Harris and Gary Davenport have well over 40 years of experience as fantasy football analysts and three Football Writer of the Year Awards between them. They know their stuff—or at least that's what they tell themselves.
Each week during the 2024 season, Harris and Davenport are going to come together here at Footballguys to discuss some of that week's most polarizing fantasy options.
The 2024 fantasy football season is entering the second half, and for every player making fantasy managers happy there are two making them pull their hair out. The first tight end drafted in the majority of leagues has been all but invisible. The position thought to be the most bust-proof (quarterback) is littered with them.
It's the latter where this week's Polarizing Players begins.
Disappointing QBs
Halfway into the 2024 season, Dak Prescott of the Dallas Cowboys, Patrick Mahomes II of the Kansas City Chiefs, and Anthony Richardson of the Indianapolis Colts all rank outside the top 15 fantasy quarterbacks.
Do any have a shot at a top-five fantasy finish at the position? Who winds up with the most fantasy points?
Harris: I don't think any of them have a shot at finishing in the top five this season. It's possible, but the emergence of Jayden Daniels and the surprising rise of others (including Baker Mayfield up to this point) crowd the field at the top.
But more importantly, it would take some serious improvement for Prescott to hit the 20.2 fantasy point-per-game average that resulted in his QB3 finish last year. That said, if he and CeeDee Lamb hit stride the way they did last season, a rise from his current QB20 spot inside the top 10 is possible. Especially working in an offense that hasn't found a way to run the football, expecting Prescott's numbers to normalize to something closer to last year's output seems reasonable. I just don't think that will get him in the top five.
I plumbed the depths on Mahomes in last week's Polarizing Players. Still, if you want to argue that DeAndre Hopkins materially changes his trajectory, I'll remind you that Rashee Rice and JuJu Smith-Schuster were plenty productive and Mahomes still sits at QB22 in the season, scoring 13.7 points per game. From my perspective, the Chiefs' approach has changed. They win by playing defense and running the ball. Super-productive Mahomes is still there, but the team is no longer constructed to dial up the 30-50 TD passes that fueled previous fantasy success.
As the engineer of the Richardson hype train this year, I should probably recuse myself from any serious discussion about his potential -- although Footballguy Matt Waldman makes every argument I would in this week's Gutcheck column, which features the QB. I'm still hoping for a positive outcome for Richardson when all is said and done, but selling him as top-five anything is me failing to acknowledge a big miss this year.
Davenport: I'd love to be able to say that I disagree with Harris. But it's more likely to me that all three of these quarterbacks fail to crack the top 10 for the season than it is for one to sneak his way into the top five. There are problems with each—significant ones.
The problem for Prescott is a lack of any kind of offensive balance in Dallas. No team in the NFL is worse at running the ball than the Cowboys, and the offense just isn't functioning with any consistency. The notion of Dallas being the most pass-heavy team in the NFL may wind up more curse than blessing for Prescott in 2024.
Mahomes doesn't have to throw for 5,000 yards this year. And even if he could, I don't think the Chiefs want him to. There will be spike games, but Kansas City's offensive identity this season has been fairly conservative. They are the only team in the league without a loss, so I don't expect them to fix what isn't broken. The arrival of Hopkins isn't a sea change in that philosophy. They needed a body at wide receiver.
As for Richardson? Well, at the risk of sounding harsh, he's terrible throwing the football right now. He also isn't racking up the gaudy rushing totals that some expected. The Colts are too invested in Richardson (and too smart) to Bryce Young him, but Indy has a better chance of winning football games with Joe Flacco under center. There isn't any breakout coming. Moderate improvement would be a Godsend.
RB Faceoff
Cleveland's Nick Chubb found the end zone in Week 7, but he did so while averaging two yards per carry. Can his elite talent escape the inescapable void of doom that is 76 Lou Groza Boulevard?
You have to take one back for the rest of the season—Chubb or Pittsburgh rival Najee Harris, who is rolling of late. Who you got?
Harris: I was skeptical about Chubb making a comeback this year. That he made it onto the field is fantastic. But as you mentioned, it was a fairly inauspicious debut. Chubb carried 11 times for just 22 yards and a touchdown against the Bengals. My guess is that's all the "easing in" we see for Chubb. It's all they can afford. Chubb is Cleveland's only hope for establishing a rhythm and getting the offense on schedule. However, I don't know that he's enough to get them where they need to be.
Jaylen Warren is a concern for Harris, but he continues to produce at a level similar to what we've seen in the past. And what we've seen in the past is Harris has delivered three straight seasons with 250-plus carries, at least eight TDs, zero games missed, and better than 10 fantasy points per game. He's on pace to hit 1,000 yards again this year and currently averaging 12.5 fantasy points per game.
Chubb may well have greater potential as a better pure runner. And you could make the argument Harris will never have league-winning upside, but slow and steady can be part of the race. As long as I have some high-upside pieces around him, I love Harris as a high-floor play, and I'd take that over Chubb.
Davenport: As a Browns fan, answering this pains me. But as a Browns fan, everything pains me.
It was nice to see Chubb on the field again. Was even nicer to see him find the end zone. But we're talking about a player coming back from a serious injury involving multiple torn ligaments. The odds of that player re-gaining pre-injury form in the following season aren't great. Never mind that Cleveland's offensive line is an injury-riddled s**tshow and that the Browns haven't scored 20 points in a game this year.
Meanwhile, Harris has looked as good the past couple of weeks as ever. He's decisive. Running hard. Has a little extra juice in his step. This is the back the Steelers thought they were drafting. Two straight games with 100 rushing yards and a touchdown. And with Russell Wilson opening up Pittsburgh's passing game, Harris isn't going to see as many eight-man fronts as he did early in the season.
Harris—and it's not close.
Big Apple Brouhaha
Next week feels like Cooper Kupp-mania where polarizing receivers are concerned, but let's stick with trades that have happened for now. The first game in New York for Davante Adams was—yeah, although he tied for the team lead in targets.
Now that you know everything after seeing one game, what does the second half of the fantasy season hold for Adams and Garrett Wilson of the Jets?
Harris: Over the years, we've seen plenty of passing attacks support a pair of high-end fantasy wideouts. For example, the 2024 New York Jets, with Aaron Rodgers at the helm, fielded a pair of solid fantasy WR1s in Wilson and Allen Lazard over the first six games this year. That's right. Wilson was WR7 through Week 6. Lazard was WR11.
Could that continue with Adams moving ahead of Lazard? Yes. Could he also move ahead of Wilson? Also, yes.
I'm with Zack Rosenblatt of the Athletic, who wrote the following upon Adams' arrival: "Wilson will not be the Jets' No. 1 receiver as long as Adams is around, and Rodgers is the quarterback."
I'll acknowledge that Breece Hall and the rushing attack have come to the forefront in the two games since Todd Downing took over as the play-caller. Given that, I'll hedge a bit and go with Adams as a tail-end WR1/high-end WR2 and Wilson as a solid WR2 for the remainder of the season -- with both more than capable of delivering WR1 numbers any given Sunday.
Davenport: We need someone to argue with because I agree with just about everything Harris said. Where's Skip Bayless? I haven't agreed with him since 2015.
I was having a bad day. Don't judge me.
At some point soon, Adams is going to be Rodgers' No. 1 target, if he isn't already. It was half the reason the trade happened, for the same reason Lazard is making $11 million a season. The Jets are placating their quarterback/general manager/grand poobah. There's just too much history there, and Rodgers already took a backhanded shot or two at Wilson not being in the right spot on plays.
As such, I have more fantasy faith in Adams than Wilson the rest of the way, In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if Lazard stays relevant too—with most of those points coming at Wilson's expense. Does that make any sense? Not even a little. But it's the Jets.
They ain't 2-5 by accident.
Honolulu Blues
To say that Detroit Lions tight end Sam LaPorta has disappointed over the past seven weeks is an understatement—he's TE16 in fantasy points.
Did the Jameson Williams suspension open the door for a rebound with the second-year pro, and if so, should fantasy managers be looking to buy or sell as trade deadlines approach in many leagues?
Harris: Williams' suspension absolutely opens the door; I'm just not sure LaPorta is ready to walk through it. Does his 12 percent target share immediately balloon to help fill the 16 percent target share Williams? Sure. But LaPorta's success last year came from a 24.7 percent target share and 10 touchdowns. It's possible Detroit could turn back the clock, but with Amon-Ra St. Brown, Tim Patrick, Kalif Raymond, and Jahmyr Gibbs all capable of helping fill the void during Williams' absence, I don't think 2023 LaPorta is coming back.
That said, given the overall state of the tight end position, I'm not against making a move to acquire -- as long as it's not an overpay.
Davenport: HEY! We disagree! It's about time—disagreement is the American Way.
It's not about LaPorta—no magical rebound is coming. His rookie season was fantastic, but there were red flags galore regarding the viability of LaPorta repeating it in 2024. I have zero shares of LaPorta—not one. And I'm in so many leagues that I have at least one share of danged near everyone else.
Where we disagree is whether to acquire LaPorta or move him. There's a chance that the Williams suspension can cause a temporary spike in LaPorta's production, but it's almost certainly that—temporary. If there's a manager in your league who sees that spike as a return to 2023 and you have another semi-viable starter (This year, it feels like all tight ends are semi-viable) at the position, moving on isn't a bad idea.
Plant the Flag
We're going to close every edition of this column this season with a little exercise called “Plant the Flag.”
Make a player a polarizing one—by selecting a guy outside the top 15 quarterbacks and tight ends or outside the top 25 running backs or wide receivers per the Footballguys Rankings who will blow up for week-winning numbers.
Harris: Troy Franklin has emerged as the WR2 in the Denver offense. The rookie stepped to the forefront last week with a team-leading 23.1 percent target share and a 31.7 percent air-yard share. So how does this newfound role turn into week-winning upside? Two things. First, his built-in chemistry with quarterback Bo Nix, Franklin's college quarterback at Oregon. Second, he's playing the Panthers.
Carolina has allowed the highest PPR points per target and the fourth-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. According to FantasyPros' Derek Brown, they're at their worst defending deep passes, and Franklin is second on the Broncos in deep targets, behind only Courtland Sutton. Franklin might be more of a DFS play than a season-long prospect at this point, but his rise shouldn't be ignored.
Davenport: That is a flag-plant. And I like it.
I feel like Charlie Brown barreling toward a football I know is going to be pulled away at the last second, but I'm going to go with Tennessee wide receiver Calvin Ridley.
Stop laughing.
With DeAndre Hopkins gone, there's no reason at all that Ridley shouldn't be peppered with targets by Mason Mayonnaise (does it really matter which one?)—especially after grousing about not getting thrown at.
The Lions can be had through the air—second in PPR points per game allowed to wide receivers. And the Titans are going to be playing from behind. It's been a little while since we had a huge squeaky-wheel meets garbage-time game.
I'll take points however I can gets ‘em. I ain't proud.
Bob Harris was the first ever Fantasy Sports Writers Association Football Writer of the Year and is a member of the FSWA Hall of Fame. Follow Bob on X at @footballdiehard.
Gary Davenport is a two-time FSWA Football Writer of the Year. Follow Gary on X at @IDPSharks.
