Fantasy Sports Writers Association Hall-of-Famer Bob Harris and Gary Davenport have well over 40 years of experience as fantasy football analysts and three Football Writer of the Year Awards between them. They know their stuff—or at least that's what they tell themselves.
Each week during the 2024 season, Harris and Davenport are going to come together here at Footballguys to discuss some of that week's most polarizing fantasy options.
The theme of last week's edition of Polarizing Players was surprise players, and at the risk of seeming lazy, we're right back there again—because danged if players don't keep surprising us. The top two fantasy quarterbacks, A top-five running back. A top-10 receiver—fantasy leaderboards do NOT look like we expected.
Whether it's no-names blowing up or big names just blowing, the first two weeks of the 2024 campaign have been wild. Harris and Davenport are trying to make sense of it all—and how things will proceed moving forward.
Perhaps in Week 3, order will be restored to the universe.
Carr's Coronation
We'll save the rookie quarterback panic question for next week because it will still be there. Through two games, Derek Carr of the New Orleans Saints has more fantasy points than Anthony Richardson, Josh Allen, and C.J. Stroud. Can Carr continue carousing? Is he a buy or sell?
Harris: I wrote about this in my Week 3 Fantasy Notebook. With 91 through two games, the Saints have the most points through two weeks of any team in the NFL in the last 15 years and the fourth-most ever. Carr, operating effectively in new coordinator Klint Kubiak's offense, has been a huge factor.
New Orleans scored on their first 15 drives of the season with the former Raider under center, scoring on all nine drives in the opener before Jake Haener replaced Carr. Then they got TDs on the first six possessions against the Cowboys before an interception ended that run. Sportradar has tracked player participation since 2006, and no other quarterback in that span had led 15 straight scoring drives at any point of a season. While I believe the Saints will continue to outperform expectations, any time an outlier player -- at any position -- is producing historic numbers, it's an opportunity to sell.
Davenport: Watching the Saints carve up the Panthers was one thing. Watching them slice-and-dice a Dallas defense that was fifth in the league in total defense was quite another. When you have been doing this as long as Bob and I have, not a ton surprises you anymore. Watching Carr perform surgery in Klint Kubiak's offense has been a surprise.
In a day and age when teams are dinking and dunking through the air in an effort to combat two-deep safety sets, Carr is averaging a ridiculous 11.4 yards per attempt. He's averaging almost 13 air yards per attempt—and that's without No. 1 receiver Chris Olave doing a ton over the first two games.
With all that said, there's just no way this is sustainable. Carr will cool off, although it may not be this week against an Eagles secondary that doesn't look much better this year than last. Defenses are going to adapt. Find something that slows New Orleans down. Carr is a textbook sell high—especially if, as I expect, he has another big outing in Week 3.
Can J.K. Dobbins Keep It Up?
We're also avoiding the Kansas City backfield, because it's less polarizing than depressing. However, elsewhere in the AFC West, JK Dobbins of the Los Angeles Chargers is leading the NFL in rushing and averaging almost 10 yards a pop. Has (ironically) Jim Harbaugh finally unlocked the former Buckeye into a fantasy league-winner—and again, are you buying or selling?
Harris: I'm not buying for the obvious reason: I have no interest in being taken to the cleaners by the seller. Along those same lines, I'm not against selling if I have Dobbins on my roster. While his Week 2 effort -- 131 yards and one touchdown on 17 carries -- was as impressive as his Week 1 showing, Dobbins still shares with Gus Edwards, who remains the more likely goal-line option.
Still, Dobbins is currently RB5 with a 21.5-point per-game average. You likely drafted him in the double-digit rounds. If you have needs at other spots, and attrition hasn't hit your backfield, reap those benefits. If you don't have significant needs? Holding is reasonable, and I'm assuming you all know his injury history. I'm injury agnostic, but there's no denying Dobbins' bad luck in this regard after he was limited to just nine games over the last two seasons.
Davenport: It figures that the season where I tell myself I am finally not going to let Dobbins' talent overcome his injury history and fade him that the 25-year-old seemingly does just that. Remember, Dobbins averaged 6.0 yards a carry as a rookie. Only Archie Griffin has more career rushing yards than Dobbins at Ohio State, and Dobbins is the only Buckeye to ever clear 2,000 rushing yards in a season.
If he can stay healthy, Dobbins has elite-level talent. He's showing that now.
However, that injury history and the presence of Edwards in the Chargers offense also can't be ignored. The reality is that most teams fortunate enough to have Dobbins rostered probably don't have the depth to consider dealing a top-five running back. But if you somehow do, Dobbins' fantasy value has nowhere to go but down from here. Just don't under-sell—if another manager wants Dobbins, they have to pay retail.
Wide-Open Wideouts
Between injuries and slow starts, a large percentage of high-end wide receivers have fantasy managers freaking out two weeks in. Who is your “stay the course” call? Who are you most willing to bail on? And who will be this week's Marvin Harrison Jr.. who reminds us why he was drafted where he was?
Harris: It's Brandon Aiyuk Redemption Week. After two weeks to ramp up after his summer-long hold-in, with Deebo Samuel Sr. and Christian McCaffrey out (and George Kittle suddenly nursing a tender hamstring), it's time for the 49ers to unleash their former first-round pick.
More to the point, he'll be facing the same Rams defense Harrison Jr. used to remind us why he was drafted where he was. In particular, Harrison burned the Rams deep. So, it's worth noting, as ESPN.com's Tristan Cockroft pointed out, Aiyuk has had 29 percent of his catches go for 20-plus yards since the beginning of 2022. Time to get the Aiyuk party started.
Davenport: I'm not bailing on Tyreek Hill or Jaylen Waddle of the Miami Dolphins—there's no way to get value in a trade, and most managers have no choice but to start them. But Tua Tagovailoa's concussion hammered their fantasy value. Skylar Thompson has barely averaged 120 passing yards a regular-season start, and Tyler Huntley (if he winds up starting) is hardly Derek Carr.
So far as a one-week explosion, DeVonta Smith of the Philadelphia Eagles is hardly a reach after he went 7/76/1 on 10 targets last week against the Atlanta Falcons. But it doesn't look like A.J. Brown will be on the field in New Orleans, and given how the Saints are piling up the points, the Eagles are going to have to grip-and-rip Sunday. Double-digit catches, over 100 receiving yards and a score. Book it.
Despite all those offensive fireworks in the Big Easy, Chris Olave of the Saints ranks outside the top-50 fantasy receivers two weeks into the season. Don't stress about that slow start. There's just too much yardage being piled up in New Orleans for Olave to not start getting his share. I still think drafting Olave as a WR1 over the summer was drafting at ceiling, but he'll finish the year inside the top 20. He starts his rebound this week against the Eagles.
The Kelce Konundrum
Through two weeks, Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce has four catches for 39 yards. As blasphemous as it seemed to ask not that long ago, is it time to be genuinely worried about the 34-year-old? Panic-Meter…1 to 10.
Harris: Panic meter at 2. I'll readily acknowledge that Kelce is getting older, and Kansas City is deeper at wide receiver than in recent years. They also have receiving alternatives at tight end in Noah Gray and Jared Wiley. And as much as we all would have preferred if Patrick Mahomes II had targeted the veteran tight end more than seven times this year, we're close to having a different conversation here.
Remember, Kelce came just short of his first touchdown of the season in the third quarter against the Bengals, getting tackled inside the 1-yard line before backup left tackle Wanya Morris caught a touchdown on the next play. He also had an impressive 41-yard catch-and-run nullified by a holding penalty. Beyond that, Kelce has been on the field for nearly 90 percent of the offensive snap and leads the team in routes run and red-zone targets. "He'll get his catches," coach Andy Reid said Monday about Kelce. Correct.
Davenport: I might go all the way to say 3, but everything Harris said about Kelce is spot-on. We're literally a couple of plays away from not even having this conversation. The targets will go up. The red-zone targets are already there. And we're talking about Travis freaking Kelce.
Yes, Kelce's old. Yes, the options at wide receiver in Kansas City are better than in the past—even with Hollywood Brown out for the regular season (at least). But the broken fibula suffered by running back Isiah Pacheco could actually be good news for Kelce's fantasy manager. A backfield led by a UDFA rookie in Carson Steele and a castoff in Samaje Perine doesn't inspire a ton of confidence, and if Kansas City can't run the ball the short pass could become a substitute.
And who do you think will be peppered with 6-8 yards passes all game long?
It's a rhetorical question.
Plant the Flag
We're going to close every edition of this column this season with a little exercise called “Plant the Flag.” Make a player a polarizing one—by selecting a guy outside the top 15 quarterbacks and tight ends or outside the top-25 running backs or wide receivers per the Footballguys Rankings who will blow up for week-winning numbers.
Harris: I'm such a glutton for punishment, but here we go . . . With the Raiders passing attack showing signs of life in Baltimore, it's time to fire up the rushing attack. All they need is a positive game script, which is possible going up against the Panthers. That being the case, it's worth noting Zamir White is expected to be the primary back for this one. "Our goal is to get 20-plus touches with him . . . It ain't Zamir, we gotta start up front, man" head coach Antonio Pierce said Monday. "The big boys up front gotta block. Bottom line."
Make no mistake: White has fallen short of expectations early on. The former fourth-round pick has averaged 13.5 touches per game over the first two weeks, with just 84 scrimmage yards, including 68 on the ground. Adding to concerns over White, Alexander Mattison has cut into the workload. While Mattison has had the touchdown luck, The Sporting News notes that White has still out-touched him 27-13. And if White gets the 20 carries Pierce wants? Running the ball has been easier against the Panthers than it has been against every other NFL team except the Colts.
Davenport: Harris thinks he's a glutton for punishment? I'm going with a wide receiver who had one catch a week ago—that went backward. Who has a pair of receptions for the season.
The Jacksonville Jaguars are 0-2, in large part because of a floundering offense that ranks 25th in passing despite three quality wide receivers and a supposed franchise quarterback in Trevor Lawrence. Christian Kirk is the best of those wide receivers, but he has been a non-factor thus far this year—seven targets in two games.
Lawrence told reporters this week that the Jaguars need to get Kirk more involved in the offense, saying that, “He's a guy I trust a lot, and you're exactly right. I've got to get him going this week, and I've got a lot of trust and faith that it will get going this week and I'm not really concerned about that. I know it's going to happen."
Add in that the Jaguars will more likely than not be playing from behind on Monday night, and it's not a stretch to imagine say 15-plus PPR points and something that resembles what we expected of Kirk in fantasy leagues in 2024.
Bob Harris was the first ever Fantasy Sports Writers Association Football Writer of the Year and is a member of the FSWA Hall of Fame. Follow Bob on X at @footballdiehard.
Gary Davenport is a two-time FSWA Football Writer of the Year. Follow Gary on X at @IDPSharks.
