Polarizing Fantasy Players: Week 3

Photo: USA Today Sports

Fantasy Sports Writers Association Hall-of-Famer Bob Harris and Gary Davenport have well over 40 years of experience as fantasy football analysts and three Football Writer of the Year Awards between them. They know their stuff—or at least that's what they tell themselves.

Each week during the 2024 season, Harris and Davenport are going to come together here at Footballguys to discuss some of that week's most polarizing fantasy options.

The theme of last week's edition of Polarizing Players was surprise players, and at the risk of seeming lazy, we're right back there again—because danged if players don't keep surprising us. The top two fantasy quarterbacks, A top-five running back. A top-10 receiver—fantasy leaderboards do NOT look like we expected.

Whether it's no-names blowing up or big names just blowing, the first two weeks of the 2024 campaign have been wild. Harris and Davenport are trying to make sense of it all—and how things will proceed moving forward.

Perhaps in Week 3, order will be restored to the universe.

Carr's Coronation

We'll save the rookie quarterback panic question for next week because it will still be there. Through two games, Derek Carr of the New Orleans Saints has more fantasy points than Anthony Richardson, Josh Allen, and C.J. Stroud. Can Carr continue carousing? Is he a buy or sell?

Harris: I wrote about this in my Week 3 Fantasy Notebook. With 91 through two games, the Saints have the most points through two weeks of any team in the NFL in the last 15 years and the fourth-most ever. Carr, operating effectively in new coordinator Klint Kubiak's offense, has been a huge factor.

New Orleans scored on their first 15 drives of the season with the former Raider under center, scoring on all nine drives in the opener before Jake Haener replaced Carr. Then they got TDs on the first six possessions against the Cowboys before an interception ended that run. Sportradar has tracked player participation since 2006, and no other quarterback in that span had led 15 straight scoring drives at any point of a season. While I believe the Saints will continue to outperform expectations, any time an outlier player -- at any position -- is producing historic numbers, it's an opportunity to sell.

Davenport: Watching the Saints carve up the Panthers was one thing. Watching them slice-and-dice a Dallas defense that was fifth in the league in total defense was quite another. When you have been doing this as long as Bob and I have, not a ton surprises you anymore. Watching Carr perform surgery in Klint Kubiak's offense has been a surprise.

In a day and age when teams are dinking and dunking through the air in an effort to combat two-deep safety sets, Carr is averaging a ridiculous 11.4 yards per attempt. He's averaging almost 13 air yards per attempt—and that's without No. 1 receiver Chris Olave doing a ton over the first two games.

With all that said, there's just no way this is sustainable. Carr will cool off, although it may not be this week against an Eagles secondary that doesn't look much better this year than last. Defenses are going to adapt. Find something that slows New Orleans down. Carr is a textbook sell high—especially if, as I expect, he has another big outing in Week 3.

Can J.K. Dobbins Keep It Up?

We're also avoiding the Kansas City backfield, because it's less polarizing than depressing. However, elsewhere in the AFC West, JK Dobbins of the Los Angeles Chargers is leading the NFL in rushing and averaging almost 10 yards a pop. Has (ironically) Jim Harbaugh finally unlocked the former Buckeye into a fantasy league-winner—and again, are you buying or selling?

Harris: I'm not buying for the obvious reason: I have no interest in being taken to the cleaners by the seller. Along those same lines, I'm not against selling if I have Dobbins on my roster. While his Week 2 effort -- 131 yards and one touchdown on 17 carries -- was as impressive as his Week 1 showing, Dobbins still shares with Gus Edwards, who remains the more likely goal-line option.

Still, Dobbins is currently RB5 with a 21.5-point per-game average. You likely drafted him in the double-digit rounds. If you have needs at other spots, and attrition hasn't hit your backfield, reap those benefits. If you don't have significant needs? Holding is reasonable, and I'm assuming you all know his injury history. I'm injury agnostic, but there's no denying Dobbins' bad luck in this regard after he was limited to just nine games over the last two seasons.

Davenport: It figures that the season where I tell myself I am finally not going to let Dobbins' talent overcome his injury history and fade him that the 25-year-old seemingly does just that. Remember, Dobbins averaged 6.0 yards a carry as a rookie. Only Archie Griffin has more career rushing yards than Dobbins at Ohio State, and Dobbins is the only Buckeye to ever clear 2,000 rushing yards in a season.

If he can stay healthy, Dobbins has elite-level talent. He's showing that now.

However, that injury history and the presence of Edwards in the Chargers offense also can't be ignored. The reality is that most teams fortunate enough to have Dobbins rostered probably don't have the depth to consider dealing a top-five running back. But if you somehow do, Dobbins' fantasy value has nowhere to go but down from here. Just don't under-sell—if another manager wants Dobbins, they have to pay retail.