Go here for this week's Rushing Matchups.
Top 5 Passing Matchups
Seattle at Chicago
Despite the losing effort in Week 16 to Minnesota, Geno Smith was great, throwing for 314 yards and three touchdowns while completing 71% of his passes. While Smith did throw two interceptions, one was at the end of the game as the team was trying to amass a comeback. Jaxon Smith-Njigba continues to show why he is the number one receiver in Seattle, as he has at least 70 receiving yards in seven straight games while scoring five touchdowns in those seven games. Meanwhile, DK Metcalf has continued to struggle. After three 100-yard performances in his first four games of the season, Metcalf does not have a 75-yard game in his last six games. He's just not seeing enough consistent volume, as he has four or fewer receptions in each of his last five games. On a short week, Ken Walker III and Zach Charbonnet are dealing with injuries, and if they were to both miss, this could force the Seahawks into a pass-heavy approach in this favorable matchup.
Chicago's defense has not been the same since the Jayden Daniels Hail Mary back in Week 8. Since they fired head coach and defensive play-caller Matt Eberflus, the defense has fallen to a different level as they're allowing opposing teams to score 34 points per game in their three games without Eberflus. Since Eberflus was fired, Chicago has allowed 297 passing yards per game, as two of the three quarterbacks they faced topped 300 yards against them, with both Jared Goff and Brock Purdy topping the milestone. Tyrique Stevenson has been a liability in coverage in his second season in the NFL, while the pass rush is not helping matters. The Bears brought in Montez Sweat last season and signed him to a massive extension, but the pass-rusher has just 4.5 sacks on the season. As a team, the Bears have just four total sacks over their last three games, as they just seem to be a defense that is lacking an identity with a struggling secondary and bad pass rush.
San Francisco vs Detroit
Brock Purdy has been extremely volatile over the last six weeks, as the team just lacks consistent playmakers. The issue largely has been that when he has time to throw against struggling pass defenses, he's been able to take advantage of the matchup, as he's now thrown for over 300 yards in three of his last six games against Miami, Tampa Bay, and Chicago. However, when facing average or better pass defenses, the passing attack has been neutralized as he failed to top 200 yards in his other three games. The good news for San Francisco is that we finally saw Deebo Samuel Sr. have a rebound game, as he had seven receptions for 96 yards and a touchdown while adding 25 yards rushing for a total of 121 yards. Samuel had just 101 total yards in his combined five previous games, so to have that big of an outbreak should help the 49ers offense finish the year strong. The big question will be how motivated this team is to finish the season now that they've officially been eliminated from playoff contention. With Trent Williams out for the season, the team also suffered critical injuries along the offensive line last week. The 49ers lost backup left tackle Jaylon Moore for the season with a quad injury last week and right guard Aaron Banks with a knee injury. To make matters worse, Spencer Buford, a third-string left tackle, is questionable after having an MRI on his calf. If Buford is unable to go, this could cause issues for the 49ers, even though they're facing an equally injured Lions secondary.
Detroit's pass defense is struggling due to all of the injuries, as well as just inexperience. With cornerback Carlton Davis out for the next five weeks with a fractured jaw, a lot of pressure is being put on rookie Terrion Arnold, who has hit a rookie wall and is struggling. This has forced the Lions to give more help to Arnold with Kirby Joseph, who is amongst the league's best safeties but has also exposed the other pieces of their defense. Brian Branch has struggled in coverage over the last several weeks and was a big reason Keenan Allen had 141 yards and a touchdown in Week 16. The Lions have now allowed back-to-back 300-yard performances, as Josh Allen and Caleb Williams both had 330 yards or more. This was one of the strongest units in the NFL, and it simply fell apart due to the number of injuries it suffered. With losing Aidan Hutchinson, the Lions have struggled to get a consistent pass rush as they have just three sacks over their last three games, which has put even more pressure on the secondary.
Green Bay at Minnesota
Jordan Love has not been asked to do much in recent weeks, as the Packers have relied upon their rushing attack to carry them to victory in five of their last six games. Over the last six weeks, Love has averaged 219 passing yards per game. Love has just one 300-yard game on the season, which he accomplished back in Week 2 against this Minnesota Vikings defense. The Packers' passing outlook may be a little more difficult this week as they may be without Christian Watson, who suffered a knee injury on Monday. The team did get some good news that it is a knee bruise, and there's a chance that he could play this Sunday. If he's unable to go, expect the Packers to consolidate the volume between Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs, Dontayvion Wicks, and tight end Tucker Kraft. It remains an unpredictable and crowded receiving room, considering the lack of upside we've seen from Love. If Watson is unable to go, expect to see some more workload from Doubs and potentially Bo Melton, who saw 32% of snaps with Watson out on Monday.
Minnesota's secondary continues to be the weak link in this defense. It is a perfect combination of a very good run defense, a high-powered offense, and an exploitable secondary. Last week, the Vikings were torched by the Seahawks passing attack, as Geno Smith threw for 314 yards and two touchdowns, but they were able to come up with the key interception on the final drive to secure the victory. There have now been five quarterbacks who have topped 300 yards against Minnesota this season, as they've allowed 269 passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks, which is third in the NFL this year. The Vikings did receive good news that Harrison Smith should return this week after missing Week 16 with a foot injury. While Smith is far past his prime as he approaches 36, he's still an important leader on this defense. The Vikings defense is pressure-based, as they run a unique style of defense under Brian Flores to get the ball out quickly. While edge rushers Andrew Van Ginkel and Jonathan Greenard have been great this season as they both have 11 sacks each, if they don't get to the quarterback, there are issues as neither Stefon Gilmore nor Shaq Griffin are good enough to sustain one-on-one coverage throughout the play.
Carolina at Tampa Bay
Bryce Young has given Carolina fans hope that Young is a player that they can be competitive with and build around. The coaching staff has completely changed the offense after his benching. They're no longer asking him to fit their system of being a pocket passer but instead leveraging his mobility to create time and utilize throws outside the pocket to put pressure on opposing defenses. Despite the future optimism, from a pure passing perspective, expectations for this offense should remain somewhat low unless there is an extremely favorable matchup. The Panthers have one of the weakest receiving rooms in the NFL, as Adam Thielen continues to be their top receiver. The Panthers lost Xavier Legette in Week 15 to injury, and Dave Canales came out and said that it is unlikely that Legette would be able to play on Sunday, which once again will force the Panthers to utilize David Moore, and undrafted rookie Jalen Coker this week as secondary options for Young.
Tampa Bay is another funnel defense that teams are just throwing against, as that is the weak link of this defense combined with an elite run-stopping unit. In their first meeting, Bryce Young threw for a season-high 298 yards in an overtime loss. Tampa Bay has allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks and the fourth-most yardage on the year. The issue for the Buccaneers continues to be at safety. This team depended on Antoine Winfield Jr. to build off of his All-Pro 2023 campaign, but Winfield has dealt with injuries and poor play to become a liability in coverage this season. On the other side, the Buccaneers lost Jordan Whitehead to IR in Week 12 and have been trying to fill in for Whitehead with Kaevon Merriweather and Christian Izien, who have struggled in coverage.
Denver at Cincinnati
While Bo Nix will likely fall just short of Jayden Daniels in the Offensive Rookie of the Year voting, he's had an outstanding rookie season. Heading into the year with extremely low expectations, Nix is averaging 248 passing yards per game over his last eight games. With a struggling rushing offense, the Broncos have needed to rely on their passing game over the second half of the season to get to the 9-6 record that has positioned themselves to potentially make the playoffs for the first time since their Super Bowl victory in the 2015 season. A big reason for the passing game success over the second half of the season has been Courtland Sutton, who is averaging 81 receiving yards over his last eight games, while Devaughn Vele and Marvin Mims Jr. have also been role players in this offense.
Cincinnati's recent defensive stats suggest they're an improving defense after being one of the worst secondaries in the NFL this season. However, in the last three weeks, Cincinnati has faced Dorian Thompson-Robinson, Mason Rudolph/Will Levis, and Cooper Rush. The Bengals have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks all season while consistently getting in shootout-type games, as they've allowed 26.2 points per game, the fifth-most in the NFL. This is a combination of issues for the Bengals, as they have major issues with their pass rush and secondary. While Trey Hendrickson is having a remarkable season with 13.5 sacks, the Bengals have been unable to get any pass rush from any of their other defenders as they have the fifth-fewest sacks in the NFL this season, and no player other than Hendrickson has more than four sacks this season.
The team tried to get younger in the secondary, but it has largely failed this season. At cornerback, the team lost 2022 first-round pick Dax Hill in Week 5 to a season-ending injury. This put a significant amount of pressure on an inexperienced secondary as third-year corner Cam Taylor-Britt and 2024 5th-round rookie DJ Turner have been the starters. Both players are below-average cornerbacks who are not helped out by the safeties. Geno Stone, a big signing from Baltimore, has fallen off significantly since coming over from the Ravens. Meanwhile, the switch from Vonn Bell to second-year Jordan Battle has also come with its struggles as the team starts to evaluate talent going forward. The one bright spot here has been slot corner Mike Hilton, which could make for a difficult day for Devaughn Vele.
Bottom 5 Passing Matchups
Minnesota vs Green Bay
Sam Darnold and the Vikings' passing attack have been an extremely consistent unit this season, outside of a few rare exceptions, as the Vikings routinely range between 240 and 275 yards per game. The big question they still have to face is whether they can continue to find another level that we saw back in Week 14 when Darnold took advantage of the bad Falcons secondary, throwing for 347 yards and five touchdowns. That game seemed to have woken Justin Jefferson up, as he has topped 130 yards or more in two of his last three games while scoring five touchdowns in his last three games. While Jefferson has been great recently, getting Jordan Addison along with T.J. Hockenson will likely be critical for the Vikings if they want to make a deep run in the playoffs. Addison has just two 100-yard games this season, both of which were Sam Darnold's only 300-yard performances, while Hockenson has not found his rhythm with Darnold, as he's averaging just 6.0 targets per game compared to 8.5 last season.
Green Bay is coming off the first shutout performance in the NFL last week after beating the hapless Saints offense 34-0. While getting too excited about this performance is hard, this team was without Jaire Alexander, safety Evan Williams, and safety Javon Bullard. The Packers should get Alexander back this week after he practiced all week last week as he recovers from his MCL injury that has kept him out since Week 8. With Alexander back, this is a massive upgrade to this secondary, as it should free up Xavier McKinney to be more of the ballhawk that we've seen the safety excel at throughout his career. McKinney is playing at an All-Pro level this season, while at the other safety position, Zayne Anderson and Evan Williams have played well, filling in for the injured Bullard. Green Bay's secondary has shown inconsistencies at times, as Tua Tagovailoa threw for 365 yards and two touchdowns on Thanksgiving. Still, they're allowing the fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks since Week 10 and, based on the return of one of the league's best cornerbacks, should have another level that they could get to as they prepare for the playoffs.
Jacksonville vs Tennessee
Mac Jones has struggled mightily in his stint replacing the injured Trevor Lawrence for the Jaguars. In six starts, the Jaguars have gone 1-5, with Jones throwing two interceptions in their lone victory. Over the past two weeks, game flow has forced Jones into high-volume passing situations, tallying 85 attempts in that span. Unfortunately, his inefficiency remains glaring—his 6.1 yards per throw is tied for 31st out of 34 qualifiers, alongside Daniel Jones and Bryce Young. Jacksonville will likely look to limit Jones' impact by emphasizing the run game whenever possible. Rookie Brian Thomas Jr., who has emerged as Jones' clear favorite target, is the one bright spot in this passing attack. Thomas is the only consistent producer, while the rest of the receiving corps, including Parker Washington and Devin Duvernay, provides little upside. Washington has been capped at 54 yards in each of the last two games and is unlikely to do much more in this divisional matchup.
The Titans' defense continues to exceed expectations, particularly in the secondary, where they've built one of the league's better units. As a "run funnel" defense, Tennessee excels at limiting passing production while struggling mightily against the run. They rank first in gross pass defense and sixth on a per-attempt basis, making it clear that teams prefer to attack them on the ground. Over the last nine weeks, only one opponent has surpassed 250 passing yards, and even Joe Burrow needed a high-volume outing to get there in Week 15. Tennessee's secondary is led by a strong group of playmakers. Boundary corners Darrell Baker Jr. and Jarvis Brownlee Jr. have been solid all year, while the return of Chidobe Awuzie from a 10-game absence adds depth and experience. Slot specialist Roger McCreary is also back in action, further strengthening the unit. Together, they've compensated well for the absence of L'Jarius Sneed for much of the season. Safety Amani Hooker rounds out the group, providing elite downfield coverage and the ability to roll help toward speedy threats like Brian Thomas Jr. This defense is well-equipped to stifle an already struggling Jaguars passing attack, forcing Jacksonville into a one-dimensional game plan.
Tampa Bay vs Carolina
Baker Mayfield has outperformed expectations for much of the 2024 season, but his Week 17 outlook is shakier than usual. When these teams met four weeks ago, Mayfield delivered one of his worst outings in months, completing just 21 of 33 passes for 235 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions. While he topped 300 yards in last week's loss, it required 43 attempts in a game where the Buccaneers were forced to play catchup. Mayfield is also dealing with multiple injuries to the same leg, which could limit his mobility and ability to plant effectively on throws. Complicating matters, Mayfield's receiving corps has been thinned by injuries. Mike Evans remains a standout regardless of the matchup, but Chris Godwin is on IR, and breakout tight end Cade Otton missed Week 16 with a knee issue. Even if Otton returns, the group lacks depth, leaving Mayfield with fewer reliable options against an improving Carolina secondary. Availability has been an ongoing concern for this roster, and with a hungry Panthers defense that excelled in their previous matchup, Mayfield may face a tough road to fantasy production.
The Panthers' pass defense has been one of the league's most improved units in the second half of the season. Since Week 9, they've ranked near the top in efficiency, allowing the fifth-fewest passing yards per game (208.4). This resurgence has come against a challenging slate of quarterbacks, including Patrick Mahomes II, Jalen Hurts, and Mayfield himself. The secondary has been a major strength for Carolina. Jaycee Horn, finally healthy after three injury-plagued seasons, has emerged as a premier cornerback. Horn and Mike Jackson, who often alternate sides of the field, don't shadow specific wideouts but have consistently limited production from opposing receivers. Just three weeks ago, they held A.J. Brown to 43 yards on four targets, and last week, they stifled Marvin Harrison Jr., holding him to 39 yards on eight receptions. Also, helping this pass defense has been a historically bad run defense for the Panthers as they're allowing 141 rushing yards per game, which is 24 yards worse than the next closest defense, so teams are just choosing to take a run-heavy approach against this team.
LA Rams vs Arizona
Matthew Stafford and the Rams have shown little urgency in the passing game over the last two weeks, largely due to game flow and frigid conditions. While circumstances dictated a run-heavy approach, the Rams typically prefer to grind out wins on the ground when possible. That philosophy should hold against an Arizona team they can likely control without airing it out extensively. Stafford's two primary targets, Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp, thrive on short and intermediate routes, which play directly into the Cardinals' defensive strengths. Kupp, in particular, has struggled to contribute recently, failing to reach 25 yards in three of his last four games, including a catchless Week 15. Nacua has become the centerpiece of this passing attack, offering more consistency and volume. While Nacua remains a must-start in fantasy formats, Kupp's supporting role significantly limits his value, especially against Arizona's improving slot coverage. This matchup, featuring standout nickel corner Garrett Williams, looks challenging for both receivers. The Rams may need to lean more on deep threats like Demarcus Robinson or Tutu Atwell, but those players remain secondary options with limited fantasy relevance.
The Arizona pass defense has quietly turned a corner over the second half of the season. After a rough stretch midway through the year, the Cardinals have held their last eight opponents under 255 passing yards. Over that span, they rank among the league's top three in yardage allowed, signaling marked improvement under coach Jonathan Gannon. This defensive revival is due in part to an emerging secondary. Sean Murphy-Bunting has been steady on the boundary, while young cornerback Starling Thomas V continues progressing. Garrett Williams has proven to be one of the league's more underrated specialists, excelling against opposing slot receivers. His presence will be crucial against Nacua and Kupp, whose production is heavily concentrated in the middle of the field. Arizona has shown an ability to limit similar threats, making it difficult to project dominant outings for either Rams receiver. While the Cardinals' defense has flaws, their structure and personnel are well-suited to slow this Rams passing game and force Stafford into low-percentage looks.
Cleveland vs Miami
The Browns' passing game has devolved into one of the league's least effective units. Deshaun Watson struggled mightily before being replaced by Jameis Winston, whose turnover issues led to the Browns taking a look at Dorian Thompson-Robinson. Unfortunately for Cleveland, Thompson-Robinson has proven unable to lead a functional NFL air attack, posting a career completion rate of just 52.8% and a meager 3.9 yards per attempt. Both figures are historically bad, ranking below those of infamous quarterback busts like Tim Tebow and Jake Locker. Last week, he turned 34 attempts into only 157 yards with two interceptions. To make matters worse, Thompson-Robinson is questionable for Week 17 due to a calf injury, leaving the possibility of Bailey Zappe under center. Neither quarterback has shown any ability to sustain drives or support their receivers, as Jerry Jeudy and Elijah Moore combined for just 41 yards last week. With no volume, efficiency, or touchdown upside, Cleveland's pass catchers are unusable in most formats.
The Dolphins' pass defense has endured an inconsistent 2024 campaign, performing well early in the season before faltering against elite competition. They ranked second in yardage allowed through Week 7 but have since faced a brutal stretch against the likes of Josh Allen, Matthew Stafford, and Jordan Love. This week provides a much-needed reprieve, as Cleveland's struggling quarterback situation offers little threat. Miami's secondary remains highly talented and well-rounded, led by Jalen Ramsey and Kendall Fuller on the outside, with Jordan Poyer and Jevon Holland providing elite deep help. Boundary receivers have found little room for efficiency, as seen with Nico Collins' six targets for just 17 yards last week. Even receivers who've managed production in this matchup have required significant volume to do so. The Dolphins are more vulnerable in the middle of the field, where tight ends have enjoyed some success against them. However, Cleveland lacks a quarterback capable of exploiting those matchups. The combination of Miami's talent and Cleveland's ineptitude points toward another stifling performance for the Dolphins' secondary, further capping the Browns' offensive potential.
