Go here for this week's Rushing Matchups.
Top 5 Passing Matchups
Cleveland at Cincinnati
The Browns' decision to start Dorian Thompson-Robinson at quarterback is far from ideal for their passing attack. In his limited 2023 starts, Thompson-Robinson struggled to establish consistency, though a favorable matchup against the Bengals offers some hope for better production. Jerry Jeudy, Cleveland's primary receiving option, has evolved into a reliable weapon, averaging an impressive 112 yards over his last seven games. While his breakout stats are bolstered by a 235-yard performance in Week 13, Jeudy's recent surge is no fluke. He has drawn a hefty 24% target share during this span and has consistently delivered, never dipping below 64 yards in a game. Facing a weak Bengals secondary, Jeudy could be the centerpiece of Cleveland's offense, particularly if tight end David Njoku remains sidelined. Quick, high-percentage throws to Jeudy will likely dominate Cleveland's game plan, and the wideout is well-positioned to exploit Cincinnati's subpar cornerbacks.
The Bengals' defense has struggled mightily against the pass throughout the season, often failing to contain even average aerial attacks. Despite the presence of Defensive Player of the Year candidate Trey Hendrickson (12.5 sacks), Cincinnati ranks a mediocre 17th in pressure rate. The lack of a consistent pass rush leaves the Bengals' depleted secondary vulnerable. While cornerbacks Cam Taylor-Britt and Mike Hilton are serviceable, the unit is hampered by rookie Josh Newton, who has allowed numerous big plays in recent weeks. The departure of Jessie Bates III and Vonn Bell has left the safety position in disarray, with coverage lapses frequently exploited. This leaky defense has been a fantasy boon for opposing pass-catchers, with 14 different players reaching 70+ receiving yards this season. Tight ends, in particular, have torched the Bengals over the middle, as recent games have seen season-best outings from the likes of Will Dissly and Pat Freiermuth. If Njoku is active, he could build on his strong Week 7 performance against Cincinnati, where he hauled in 10 passes and a touchdown. Together, Jeudy and Njoku could feast in a matchup that has consistently yielded big fantasy numbers.
Chicago vs Detroit
Caleb Williams continues his upward trajectory, showcasing improvement in decision-making and efficiency. Since Week 11, his passer rating of 99.1 ranks among the top 10 in the league, highlighting his ability to manage games effectively while limiting mistakes. Impressively, Williams hasn't thrown an interception since Week 6, a testament to his growing poise. The Bears have relied on his ability to stay controlled and create big plays when necessary. Williams excelled against the Lions three weeks ago, throwing for 256 yards and three touchdowns in a near-upset. With a trio of dynamic pass-catchers in Keenan Allen, DJ Moore, and Rome Odunze, he's poised to capitalize on another favorable matchup. Allen has established himself as Williams' go-to target, commanding a 29% share over the past five games, while Moore continues to provide explosive playmaking opportunities downfield.
The Lions' pass defense, once a strength, is now in disarray due to a mounting injury crisis. Already playing without star edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson, Detroit's defensive line has been further weakened by Za'Darius Smith's limited availability. In Week 15, injuries to defensive tackle Alim McNeil and cornerback Carlton Davis dealt crushing blows to the unit. The loss of Davis, one of the most improved players of 2024, leaves the Lions with a patchwork secondary struggling to contain opposing offenses. Against the Bills, this undermanned defense allowed 362 passing yards and two touchdowns, and the outlook isn't any brighter against the Bears. Detroit's current cornerback rotation includes Terrion Arnold, Kindle Vildor, and Amik Robertson, none of whom have stepped up effectively in Davis' absence. Arnold, in particular, struggled last week, frequently beaten on intermediate and deep routes. Safety Brian Branch offers some hope with his standout play in the slot, but he can't compensate for the lack of depth and the absence of a consistent pass rush. Without Hutchinson or Smith at full strength, Detroit's ability to pressure the quarterback is limited, further exposing its secondary.
Detroit at Chicago
Jared Goff and the Lions' offense are firing on all cylinders, even more so with David Montgomery sidelined. Goff has stepped up, averaging 336 passing yards and tallying 14 touchdowns to just one interception over his last five outings. Efficiency has been key for Goff, who ranks among the top three quarterbacks in several metrics. His impressive supporting cast includes Amon-Ra St. Brown, the team's top target with a commanding 27% share. St. Brown's versatility allows him to dominate at all levels of the field, as evidenced by last week's performance: 14 catches on 18 targets for 193 yards and a touchdown. Jameson Williams complements St. Brown as a big-play threat, earning seven or more targets in three of his last four games, while tight end Sam LaPorta remains the wild card. LaPorta has shown the ability to produce at elite levels, though his weekly output is inconsistent.
The Bears' pass defense began the season strong but has regressed significantly since Jayden Daniels' Hail Mary in Week 8. Their average yards allowed per game have risen from 219 to 241, placing them among the league's worst. Two of their last seven opponents surpassed the 300-yard mark, and Brock Purdy nearly joined them if not for a favorable game script. Jaylon Johnson is the lone bright spot in a secondary that otherwise struggles, particularly Tyrique Stevenson, who continues to be targeted successfully. The absence of safety Jaquan Brisker since Week 5 has further destabilized this unit. Kevin Byard III has been tasked with filling the gap but has shown signs of decline at age 31. Tackling issues have exacerbated their woes, as speedy receivers like Jordan Addison (8 catches, 162 yards, and a touchdown) and Christian Watson (4 for 150) have exploited mismatches for big gains. In their meeting three weeks ago, Detroit posted respectable numbers with 221 yards and one touchdown but narrowly missed on several deep throws. With the Lions' offensive rhythm and the Bears' declining secondary, there's ample reason to expect those opportunities to materialize this time around.
Las Vegas vs Jacksonville
Aidan O'Connell looks like he will get the start once again for Las Vegas after missing last week with a knee injury. This would be tremendous news for the Raiders after they struggled to move the ball with Desmond Ridder last week, which has been the trend when Ridder gets the start. Brock Bowers is simply a different player when O'Connell is in the lineup, as he has over 100 yards and a touchdown in each of his last two games with O'Connell, but with Ridder, he has under 50 yards and no touchdowns in each of his last three games. At wide receiver, Jakobi Meyers is basically the only wide receiver that they have that is competent at this point, as Tre Tucker and Terrace Marshall Jr were the only other two wide receivers to get snaps last week. With the Raiders struggling at running back due to the loss of Sincere McCormick for the season, look for them to take a pass-heavy approach into this week to exploit the favorable matchup against Jacksonville.
Jacksonville has been unable to stop anyone this season against the pass. Last week, Aaron Rodgers torched this defense for 289 yards and three touchdowns as the Jaguars were unable to stop Davante Adams, who had 198 yards and 2 touchdowns. The Jaguars have now allowed four 100-yard receivers over the last four games, which should make for a great matchup for Meyers as he will get to face off against the struggling Tyson Campbell. However, the real struggle for the Jaguars has been at safety. Neither Darnell Savage nor Antonio Johnson have been able to cover anyone all season, although it is not all their fault, as the Jaguars, who invested heavily in their pass rush with Josh Hines-Allen and Trayvon Walker, have the third-fewest team sacks in the NFL this season. If you have the combination of unable to rush the passer with a secondary that has struggled to cover anyone, you're going to end up in a situation where you've allowed the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks and second-most passing yards this season.
Seattle vs Minnesota
Seattle could look to a pass-heavy approach this week as Zach Charbonnet and Ken Walker III are dealing with injuries that kept them out of Wednesday's practice. Since getting out to a hot start early on in the season - over his first nine games of the year, Smith averaged 284 passing yards per game - but over his last five games, Smith is averaging just 212 passing yards per game. The Seahawks have faced difficult matchups, but the fall off of DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett has been a big reason why this team is struggling. Lockett does not have more than 25 yards over his last five games, while Metcalf has not topped 70 after having three 100-yard performances over the first nine games. Jaxon Smith-Njigba continues to be the bright spot in this offense as he is averaging 121 yards per game over his last five while topping at least 70 in all five games.
Minnesota's pass defense looked better in Week 15 but was facing a Bears team that has struggled to throw the ball over the last two weeks and has struggled on the road all season. Minnesota has allowed 340 passing yards or more in two of their last four games, and on the season, are allowing 265 yards per game, which is the third most in the NFL. The Vikings should get Stephon Gilmore back this week, but it will only be a minor upgrade as he and Shaq Griffin have been inconsistent at the cornerback position. At 34 years old, Gilmore has lost a step, and if he is less than 100% healthy, it could cause issues for the Vikings. The cornerbacks are not helped by an aging Harrison Smith, who has been a liability in coverage for most of the season as the soon-to-be 36-year-old safety has fallen off compared to his former All-Pro self. The one bright spot for the Vikings has been their ability to rush the passer, as they're fifth in the NFL in sacks, led by edge rushers Jonathan Greenard and Andrew Van Ginkel, who have a combined 20 sacks. Defensive Coordinator Brian Flores is trying to cover up his secondary deficiencies by bringing pressure from various linebackers and edge players in his unique scheme.
Bottom 5 Passing Matchups
Washington vs Philadelphia
Jayden Daniels' promising rookie season has hit a bit of a roadblock in recent weeks, as his production has dipped from earlier highs. Through Week 9, Daniels averaged an impressive 8.5 yards per throw and 242 passing yards per game. However, over the past five games, those numbers have fallen to 6.7 yards per throw and just 220 yards per game. His lone game over 230 yards in this stretch was bolstered heavily by a pass-heavy game script. Daniels has become more conservative in his approach, sticking to shorter, safer throws, as evidenced by his 19th ranking in yards per completion among 34 qualified quarterbacks. Part of the issue lies with the supporting cast. While Terry McLaurin remains a consistent presence, leading the team with a notable 10.9 yards per target, no other Washington pass-catcher averages more than 40 receiving yards per game. McLaurin commands a substantial portion of Daniels' focus, with 22% of the team's targets, but his efforts alone haven't been enough to elevate the offense. Zach Ertz, the team's second-leading receiver, has been inconsistent and is now questionable for Week 16 as he navigates concussion protocol. Without Ertz, the already thin receiving corps becomes even less imposing as the team will also be without Noah Brown this week. Expect a heavy usage of Terry McLaurin with the Commanders mixing in Dyami Brown, Ben Sinnott, and maybe Luke McCaffrey as they just look for playmakers.
The Eagles' pass defense has been nothing short of dominant, ranking first in yards allowed per attempt (5.5) and second in total passing yards allowed since Week 5. They haven't allowed a quarterback to surpass 250 yards since Week 4, an incredible feat given the caliber of passers they've faced, including Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson. Rookie cornerbacks Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean have emerged as immediate stars, consistently locking down opposing wideouts. Supported by safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson, this secondary has minimized big plays and sustained drives. When these teams faced off in Week 11, McLaurin and Ertz combined for just 57 yards on nine targets, showcasing how effectively the Eagles can neutralize Washington's limited options.
Miami vs San Francisco
Tua Tagovailoa continues to be a volume passer, stringing together three 300-yard games over the past four weeks. However, much of that production has come from a shift in offensive philosophy. Miami's attack now emphasizes short, ultra-quick throws, limiting the explosive plays that once defined their passing game. Tagovailoa's average depth of target (5.7 yards) ranks last among all qualifying quarterbacks, underscoring the conservative nature of this scheme. His yardage and touchdowns remain respectable due to volume, but efficiency metrics have taken a hit, with his yards per completion dropping by 2.0 compared to last year. In this adjusted offense, Jonnu Smith has emerged as a key target. Since Tagovailoa's return in Week 8, Smith is nearly on par with Tyreek Hill in catches and yardage, signaling a growing role. Meanwhile, Jaylen Waddle, who's nursing a knee injury, has alternated between big fantasy days and forgettable outings, contributing to the unit's inconsistency. Despite their talent, Hill, Smith, and running back De'Von Achane now project as volume-dependent plays, relying less on big-play upside.
The 49ers' defense, meanwhile, is hitting its stride and leads the league in yardage allowed. They've held opponents under 250 passing yards since Week 6 and haven't relented even against high-volume passers like Geno Smith. Last week, they limited Matthew Stafford and the Rams to just 160 passing yards, with nearly a third of that coming on a single busted-coverage play. They effectively erased Cooper Kupp, who failed to record a catch, showcasing their ability to neutralize star receivers. Nick Bosa and Leonard Floyd anchor a pass rush that creates consistent pressure without heavy blitzing. Charvarius Ward and Deommodore Lenoir form an elite cornerback tandem, while safety Talanoa Hufanga's return bolsters their coverage. The 49ers excel at eliminating downfield options, forcing offenses to settle for short-yardage plays.
San Francisco at Miami
The 49ers passing offense has fallen off since the loss of Brandon Aiyuk, Christian McCaffrey, and possibly the most surprising of all, Deebo Samuel Sr.'s struggles. Samuel has been a non-factor over the last five weeks failing to top 25 receiving yards. Last week, in what should have been a favorable matchup against the Rams, the 49ers threw for just 142 yards as George Kittle had 61 of those yards, while Jauan Jennings was the only other receiver who had over 30 yards in that game. With Isaac Guerendo out, he was the checkdown option for this team, and it now becomes uncertain as they lose yet another pass-catching option for Brock Purdy as the options should likely consolidate between Kittle and Jennings unless Deebo can somehow turn things around over the last three weeks of the year.
Miami's secondary continues to be one of the best units in the NFL all season. In 2024, they're allowing the fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks and 219 passing yards, which is sixth in the league. We have seen some recent slippage of this defense, which is a combination of their run defense emerging as one of the best in the NFL combined with an offense that is clicking. But they rebounded nicely last week, holding C.J. Stroud to just 131 passing yards after allowing Aaron Rodgers to throw for his first 300-yard game in three seasons. If there is one concern for the Dolphins, it has been the pass rush. Miami has just 28 sacks on the season, which is the seventh worst in the NFL. However, they match up extremely well this week against San Francisco given that Jalen Ramsey has a history of covering tight ends if they need to put him on George Kittle, while Jevon Holland and Jordan Poyer have a lot of experience playing at a very high level.
Philadelphia at Washington
Jalen Hurts and the Eagles passing offense rebounded nicely last week after some recent struggles. Prior to last week, Hurts had failed to top 200 passing yards in three straight games but exploded with 290 yards against the Steelers. Both A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith topped 100 yards, while Kenneth Gainwell also had 40 yards as Saquon Barkley was dealing with an injury in the second half of that game. When the Eagles are a balanced offense, they're as dangerous as any team in the league, as they're playing behind the league's best offensive line, have an MVP-caliber candidate at running back, and have two elite wide receivers.
If there was an award for the most improved unit, it would have to go to the Washington secondary. For those that don't remember last season, this was the equivalent of the Rushing Matchups version of the Carolina Panthers. They were an automatic target each and every week as they allowed 272 passing yards per game and six quarterbacks to top 300 yards. This season, Dan Quinn has completely turned this unit around as they're allowing just 204 passing yards per game and have allowed just two quarterbacks to top 300 yards. The Commanders have had to make some critical decisions that have enabled this improvement. They weren't afraid to cut ties with Emmanuel Forbes Jr., their first-round 2023 selection, as they traded for Marshon Lattimore mid-way through the season. Rookie Mike Sainristill has been a strong addition to this secondary to complement Lattimore on the outside as the team has also benched 2023 third-round selection Benjamin St-Juste. One of the big surprises of this unit has been their pass rush. While firmly in the middle of the pack, this was a team that lost Jonathan Allen to injury, and traded away Chase Young and Montez Sweat last season. Dan Quinn has turned to a pressure-heavy scheme, blitzing middle linebacker Frankie Luvu, who has eight sacks on the season, just behind Dante Fowler Jr at 8.5 for the team lead.
Indianapolis vs Tennessee
Anthony Richardson has been better since his benching earlier this season but still faces significant flaws. Most of his production has come as a runner, as he has run for at least 40 yards in his last three games, but as a passer, he still has a long way to go. Since the benching, Richardson has thrown for over 200 yards just once, completed over 50% of his passes just once, and is averaging exactly 50% completion percentage which simply is not good enough for an NFL quarterback. Last week, we saw Michael Pittman Jr have most of the work here as he had 6 receptions for 58 yards. Josh Downs did see 8 targets last week, but was only able to connect with Richardson on three of those. Downs has been the number one receiver when Richardson has been the quarterback, so while the results were not there last week, he still should have a solid target share once again this week.
Tennessee's pass defense has been as consistent as any secondary all season. On the year, they're allowing just 195 passing yards per game, which is third in the NFL. Tennessee invested heavily in the offseason, but most of those players have been injured, as L'Jarius Sneed, Quandre Diggs, and Chidobe Awuzie have all been placed on IR this season. The good news for Tennessee is that they did get Awuzie back in Week 14, which provided a nice bump to the secondary. Tennessee has allowed just one quarterback to throw for more than 275 yards all season, as Josh Allen did back in Week 7, throwing for 323. They've been a team that has suffocated struggling pass defenses. Earlier this season, against the Colts, they held Joe Flacco to just 189 yards on 38 attempts. The one area that they have struggled with is against mobile quarterbacks as both Malik Willis and Drake Maye topped 70 rushing yards, so expect the Colts to take a run-heavy game plan this week to try to take advantage of Kenneth Murray Jr. who, throughout his career has been one of the worst run-stopping linebackers in the NFL.
