Go here for this week's Rushing Matchups.
Top 5 Passing Matchups
Cincinnati at Baltimore
The Bengals, currently a middling 4-5, have shown flashes of high-caliber passing, especially with Joe Burrow healthy and leading the way. Ranking 11th in net yardage rate and sitting second in the league in touchdown passes, this air attack is one of the more effective in the NFL. Burrow’s numbers dipped slightly prior to a standout Week 9 game, where he exploded for five touchdowns against the Raiders. Missing Tee Higgins has impacted the Bengals’ passing dynamics, often shifting their strategy to shorter, more conservative throws. However, even with Higgins likely sidelined again for Week 10, Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase remain potent forces. Chase has become the focal point of the offense in Higgins' absence, commanding over 30% of team targets in the past two weeks. The Bengals are utilizing him mainly on screens, but with his skill set, he remains a consistent deep threat. Chase’s 10.2 yards per target ranks him 24th among 187 qualifiers, underlining his efficiency and playmaking ability. This week presents an appealing matchup for him, as he dominated the Ravens back in Week 5 with 10 catches for 193 yards and two touchdowns. Tight end Mike Gesicki has also been impactful in recent games, especially in favorable matchups. Playing on about half of the team’s snaps, Gesicki has posted 173 yards and two touchdowns over the last two games and could see similar involvement here.
The Ravens, despite holding Super Bowl aspirations, continue to struggle defensively, particularly against the pass. Their pass defense ranks last in the NFL, allowing explosive performances on a near-weekly basis. While Baltimore has faced a challenging lineup of quarterbacks, it’s concerning that nearly every passer has found success. Six of their nine opponents have topped 275 yards, and four of the last five have thrown multiple touchdowns. The Ravens’ defensive struggles seem to be rooted in depth issues and perhaps a misaligned scheme, not a significant talent drop-off. Marlon Humphrey and Brandon Stephens are dependable cornerbacks, but they haven’t been able to contain passers on their own. Rookie cornerback Nate Wiggins, who returned from injury alongside Humphrey in Week 9, has been inconsistent, alternating between flashes of dominance and allowing costly plays. Until the Ravens can solidify this secondary, Burrow and his pass-catchers, led by Chase and Gesicki, are well-positioned to exploit this vulnerable unit in Week 10.
San Francisco at Tampa Bay
Brock Purdy and the 49ers head into Week 10 looking for a bounce-back performance after a rough outing against Kansas City in Week 8. Purdy’s recent play has shown a mix of both the highs and lows typical of a developing quarterback, but his ability to capitalize on softer matchups has been impressive. Against weaker pass defenses, he’s delivered strong results, posting 515 yards at an efficient 9.5 yards per attempt, four touchdowns, and no interceptions. Purdy’s struggles have largely come from a rotating lineup, with star players like Christian McCaffrey, Brandon Aiyuk, and Deebo Samuel Sr. all missing time. However, he seems to be finding a rhythm even without his full complement of weapons. He performed well against the Cowboys by targeting George Kittle frequently, demonstrating a growing ability to utilize his secondary receivers effectively. This week, he may benefit from the return of Samuel and Jauan Jennings, both of whom would provide a significant boost to San Francisco's offensive potential. Jennings, who recorded 263 yards and three touchdowns in Weeks 3 and 4, should be a valuable fill-in for Aiyuk if needed, while McCaffrey’s presence, if he’s healthy enough to play, would enhance both the yardage and scoring opportunities across the board.
The matchup itself appears promising, as Tampa Bay’s pass defense has struggled immensely as the season has progressed. Beset by injuries and facing high-powered offenses, they now sit 30th in pass defense, with a recent stretch that’s exposed their limitations even further. Over the past three games, they’ve allowed 283 passing yards per game and 8.3 yards per throw, ranking near the bottom of the league. This period excludes Kirk Cousins’ explosive Week 5 performance, where he threw for 509 yards and four touchdowns against them. Tampa Bay’s secondary is notably lacking in talent, especially with top cornerback Jamel Dean sidelined. Safety Antoine Winfield Jr. remains a versatile playmaker, but he can only cover so much ground. With Dean out, unproven names like Tykee Smith and Josh Hayes have taken on larger roles, but they’ve struggled against both speedy and physical receivers. Recent games saw Rashod Bateman and Darnell Mooney exploit the secondary’s gaps with deep catches, while the physical DeAndre Hopkins put up 86 yards and two touchdowns last week. Even elite tight ends have found success against this unit, making this a matchup ripe for Purdy to exploit with Kittle, and potentially Samuel and McCaffrey, in the mix.
Philadelphia at Dallas
Jalen Hurts continues to be a reliable fantasy producer, especially given his rushing ability, but his recent success through the air has only added to his value. Over Philadelphia’s four-game winning streak, Hurts has reached peak efficiency, completing 72% of his passes and averaging an impressive 10.2 yards per attempt. His passing yards per game sit at a modest 211, but that number is deceptive, given the blowouts that have limited his opportunities. This week’s close 1.5-point spread suggests a more competitive game script, which should allow Hurts to leverage both his rushing and passing talents fully. The timing couldn’t be better, as Hurts finally has his elite wide receiver duo, A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, healthy and on the field together. Brown’s Week 9 knee injury appears minor, and he’s expected to play in this crucial divisional matchup. Over the last four games, both Brown and Smith have topped 60 yards three times each, underscoring the efficiency and versatility of Philadelphia’s passing game. Given the recent struggles of the Dallas defense, Hurts seems primed for another productive outing.
The Cowboys’ defense, which started the season strong, has faltered in recent weeks. Since Week 3, opposing quarterbacks have completed 71% of their passes against Dallas. This decline coincides with injuries to key defenders like Micah Parsons, Demarcus Lawrence, and DaRon Bland. Although Parsons has a decent chance of returning for Week 10, he’s unlikely to solve all of the defense’s issues single-handedly. Bland’s absence, in particular, has forced Dallas to lean heavily on Jourdain Lewis and Caelen Carson in coverage, both of whom have struggled as full-time players. Even star corner Trevon Diggs has been inconsistent this season. The result has been a vulnerable secondary: opposing wide receivers have scored five touchdowns over the last three weeks, with five different receivers topping 70 yards in that span. That number doesn’t include standout performances from tight ends, like George Kittle’s 6 catches for 128 yards and a touchdown in Week 8 or Sam LaPorta’s 52-yard touchdown in Week 6. While Dallas’s defense is working to get healthy, it remains a unit with exploitable weaknesses, especially against a high-octane Eagles offense led by a red-hot Hurts.
Chicago vs New England
Caleb Williams’ upward trajectory has hit a bump over the past couple of weeks. Since his standout performance against Jacksonville in Week 6, he’s struggled with accuracy, completing just 49% of his passes and seeing his yards per attempt dip from 6.6 to 5.4. In last week’s loss to the Cardinals, Williams was ineffective, hampered by an ankle injury that briefly left his availability for this Sunday in question. However, the rookie is expected to suit up and will face a New England defense that has had trouble containing mobile quarterbacks. Williams has shown an impressive ability to create space and time in the pocket, working with an explosive receiving corps that includes the dynamic trio of D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen, and fellow rookie Rome Odunze, as well as a reliable tight end in Cole Kmet. Odunze has been a particularly exciting downfield threat, averaging 15.6 yards per catch and already logging two 100-yard games. Allen, though primarily working out of the slot, hasn’t drawn too much attention away from Moore, who remains a focal point. This matchup has the potential for Williams to recapture his Week 6 success, especially as the Patriots have consistently allowed receptions to tight ends, which could open up opportunities for Kmet to contribute.
The Patriots’ pass defense, once one of the league’s most respected units, is now clearly in a rebuilding phase. While their secondary has some talent, the overall group is struggling, allowing the sixth-most yards per pass attempt and 12th-most yards per game. Three of their last four opponents have thrown for multiple touchdowns, and some passing performances were kept in check only by game flow. With the Bears unlikely to dominate on the scoreboard, Williams should have four quarters to work against this unit. The absence of key pass rushers Matthew Judon and Joshua Uche has left New England unable to generate pressure, ranking 27th in pressure rate and 29th in sacks. This lack of pressure has placed a heavy burden on their secondary, which, while solid, can’t fully compensate for the pass rush’s inefficiencies. The Patriots’ defensive struggles against quarterbacks who can throw on the move could spell trouble, as Williams thrives in those scenarios and has the receivers to exploit it. The Patriots have already allowed 15 different receivers to reach at least 50 yards this season, and Williams’ talented group could easily add several more to that list this Sunday.
Minnesota at Jacksonville
Sam Darnold’s impressive start to the season has many wondering when or if the wheels will fall off. Yet, through nine weeks, Darnold’s form has held steady, and his favorable matchup against the Jaguars this week suggests he’s set to keep up his momentum. Before a slight stumble against the Jets in Week 5, Darnold posted a robust 118.9 passer rating. Since then, he’s bounced back with a 113.6 rating over the last three games, averaging 263 yards with six touchdowns and just three interceptions. Much of his success can be attributed to his consistent connection with Justin Jefferson, who commands an impressive 33% target share. Jefferson’s weekly output is as reliable as they come; he’s posted over 81 yards in every game since Week 2 and has crossed the 115-yard mark three times. This consistent production gives Darnold a stable foundation to build on, no matter the opponent. Darnold’s arsenal is deep, as he now has two healthy secondary options in Jordan Addison and Jalen Nailor, while tight end T.J. Hockenson’s return adds another dynamic target to keep defenses guessing.
The Jaguars’ pass defense, meanwhile, has been anything but formidable. At 2-7, they often find themselves on the wrong end of the score, meaning teams rarely need to air it out to get results. When opponents do throw, however, they find easy success, as Jacksonville’s pass defense ranks 31st in both yards per throw (7.8) and yards per game allowed (278). While top cornerback Tyson Campbell offers solid coverage and rookie Jarrian Jones has flashed in the slot, the overall scheme and lack of support in the secondary present glaring issues. Jacksonville’s pass rush, led by Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker’s combined 11.5 sacks, has been gradually improving but hasn’t been impactful enough to make up for the weaknesses on the back end.
Much of the problem lies in their reliance on safeties Andre Cisco and Darnell Savage, who are stronger against the run than in pass coverage. Their two-deep scheme frequently leaves them exposed downfield, with the Jaguars allowing the second-most completions of 30+ yards in the league. This is an especially enticing statistic for Jefferson and Addison, who excel in deeper routes (average depths of 12.7 and 15.3 yards, respectively). Against a secondary that is vulnerable to big plays, Darnold and his receivers should be in prime position for another productive week.
Bottom 5 Passing Matchups
Arizona vs NY Jets
Kyler Murray’s 2024 season began with promise, including a perfect passer rating in Week 2’s win over the Rams. However, his production has since tapered off, and he now averages just 6.8 yards per attempt and 190 yards per game. This Cardinals offense is heavily concentrated around two primary weapons: rookie sensation Marvin Harrison Jr. and tight end Trey McBride, who account for 47% of the team’s targets. Both have exceeded 300 receiving yards, while Harrison, in particular, adds a dynamic element with his ability to make plays near the line and occasionally stretch the field. Yet, the condensed nature of this offense also makes it predictable, allowing defenses to key in on Harrison as the lone deep threat. Complicating matters is a subpar offensive line ranked 25th by Matt Bitonti. With the Jets’ ferocious pass rush on deck—fresh off a dominant performance against C.J. Stroud, in which they forced eight sacks and held him to 37% completions—Murray could be in for a challenging day.
The Jets’ pass defense, long regarded as a potential force, showed its full might in Week 9 against Stroud and the Texans. Allowing just 191 passing yards and forcing Stroud into hurried, low-percentage throws, this unit has established itself as one of the league’s premier defensive groups. Their pass rush pressures quarterbacks at the NFL’s third-best rate, and they’ve achieved this without major contributions from Haason Reddick, suggesting there’s still untapped upside. The pressure up front has had a ripple effect on the secondary, led by elite cornerbacks Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed. Together, they’ve created an environment where opposing receivers, even top talents, have to work extremely hard for production. In their Week 5 matchup, Justin Jefferson was held to six catches for 92 yards, needing a whopping 14 targets to reach that total. Gardner and Reed are well-suited to counter Harrison Jr., Arizona’s primary deep target. With bracket coverage likely and relentless pressure on Murray up front, Harrison may struggle to find space. Murray’s tendency to keep throws quick and close to the line may be tested heavily, as the Jets will look to press both the line and Harrison’s routes. This matchup presents a daunting challenge for Murray and the Cardinals’ offense, which will need to find creative ways to overcome New York’s disciplined and punishing defensive unit.
Dallas vs Philadelphia
The Dallas passing game was underperforming even before Dak Prescott’s injury, showing signs of stagnation and predictability. This air attack wisely centers around star receiver CeeDee Lamb, who commands a hefty 26% target share but overall lacks the downfield dynamism found in more explosive offenses, ranking just 20th in completed air yards. With backup quarterback Cooper Rush taking the reins for at least the next month, the offense may take another step back. Rush has a limited arm compared to Prescott, which likely means more of the same conservative play, leaning heavily on high-percentage throws. Assuming Lamb is healthy and able to suit up on Sunday, Rush should continue to target him frequently, keeping Lamb’s fantasy outlook steady even with the quarterback change. Tight end Jake Ferguson, coming off a solid 7-catch, 71-yard performance, also projects well to be involved under Rush’s conservative style. However, despite Ferguson’s upside, it’s hard to see this unit maintaining above-average productivity with a backup quarterback, especially against a tough Eagles defense.
Philadelphia’s defense, once a liability as recently as Week 4, has rebounded impressively over a four-game winning streak, reestablishing its presence as a formidable unit. Two weeks ago, they held Joe Burrow and the Bengals to just 6.3 yards per attempt in a commanding win, showing the depth and talent that this group possesses. Their pass rush, led by Josh Sweat and Jalen Carter, is highly effective without relying heavily on blitzes, allowing the defense to play conservatively and minimize big plays downfield. In the secondary, they’ve demonstrated impressive coverage ability, even in the absence of top cornerback Darius Slay Jr. Slay’s availability for Sunday remains uncertain, but backup Isaiah Rodgers filled in admirably last week, while rookie Cooper DeJean has impressed since stepping into a larger role. This secondary has not allowed a single wide receiver to surpass 55 yards since Week 4.
Against this defense, the Cowboys may lean on tight end Jake Ferguson, as opponents have found modest success targeting their tight ends for short gains. With Cooper Rush at quarterback, Dallas’s offense is likely to focus on shorter, safer throws, which could boost Ferguson’s target volume. However, given Philadelphia’s steady coverage and improving form, it’s hard to see many explosive plays emerging from this matchup, especially with a backup quarterback in play.
Kansas City vs Denver
Patrick Mahomes II has shifted his approach this season, moving away from his typical highlight-reel, downfield passing to a more measured and controlled strategy with head coach Andy Reid. Through eight games, Mahomes has only surpassed 250 yards four times and currently holds a career-worst interception rate of 3.3%. While his efficiency remains solid, Mahomes’ play has catered more to ball control and safe, short completions rather than explosive plays. The addition of DeAndre Hopkins last week provided a reliable set of hands, but Hopkins is no longer a deep threat, limiting the Chiefs’ ability to stretch the field. This approach is typically effective for Kansas City, but it dampens Mahomes’ fantasy appeal. Against a challenging Week 10 defensive matchup, it’s unlikely Mahomes will find many opportunities to post huge numbers.
The Denver defense, a stingy unit all season, finally allowed a 240-yard passing day for the first time against Lamar Jackson, a leading MVP candidate. However, their pass defense remains formidable. The Broncos’ defense focuses heavily on limiting air yardage by tightening coverage on opposing wide receivers. Led by star cornerback Patrick Surtain II, who is playing at an All-Pro level, the Denver secondary has consistently shut down top-tier receivers. Surtain is complemented by emerging talent Riley Moss, creating a dynamic duo on the outside that has stifled big names like DK Metcalf, George Pickens, Garrett Wilson, and Tampa Bay’s Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. These receivers averaged minimal yards per target, highlighting how challenging Denver makes it for opponents to move the ball downfield. This elite boundary coverage pushes opposing offenses toward the middle, yet even there, Denver manages to control production, allowing very few big-play opportunities. They have effectively funneled passing attempts to less dangerous parts of the field, maintaining a bend-don’t-break mentality. Mahomes will need to rely heavily on shorter, inside routes to keep the ball moving, which may not yield explosive results but could keep the offense steady. For fantasy managers, this game script points toward modest production for Mahomes and his pass-catchers, as Denver’s defense presents one of the toughest tests in the league.
Detroit vs Houston
Jared Goff has been effective for the Lions, but his role has shifted far from that of a traditional stat-stuffer. In their ground-focused approach, Detroit hasn’t exceeded 25 pass attempts since Week 2, preferring to lean on the run game and keep Goff’s passing controlled and efficient. This shift has brought mixed results for Goff’s talented receiving corps. Amon-Ra St. Brown, the primary target, has topped 60 yards in only three of eight games this season. Tight end Sam LaPorta has been limited to two catches or fewer in five games, and deep threat Jameson Williams continues to be the very definition of a “boom-or-bust” player. Goff has relied on a high completion rate to sustain value, sitting near the top of the league with precise short throws, but he ranks 29th among qualified passers in average depth of target (aDOT). He’s not taking many risks downfield, so any decrease in his high completion percentage would likely translate to a challenging fantasy week. A volume breakout is unlikely this week against the Texans' formidable pass defense, which has consistently stifled opponents.
Houston’s success this season has largely been due to their dominant defense rather than their offense, which has shown inconsistency throughout 2024. This defense, led by head coach DeMeco Ryans, is both aggressive and effective, ranking among the league’s top three in sack rate. Ryans has deployed a relentless pass rush scheme that disrupts quarterbacks and limits opportunities for explosive plays. This approach has led Houston to a 6-2 record, with their defense often closing out games where the offense has faltered. Despite facing a challenging lineup of quarterbacks, the Texans haven’t allowed a single 250-yard passing game, and they’re holding opposing passers to a league-best 5.4 yards per attempt. Rookies Kamari Lassiter and Calen Bullock have emerged as reliable every-down players in the secondary, combining with standout cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. and safety Jalen Pitre to create a versatile and potent unit. Even productive wideouts have had to grind hard for yardage against Houston, finding few big-play opportunities in this tight coverage. For the Lions, facing this Houston defense could spell another low-volume, high-efficiency game plan for Goff, keeping expectations tempered for a high fantasy output.
Pittsburgh vs Washington
Russell Wilson has undeniably provided an upgrade for the Steelers over Justin Fields, and the recent addition of wide receiver Mike Williams bolsters his supporting cast. Yet, there’s reason to temper expectations about this passing game’s potential volume and consistency. The Steelers have leaned heavily on a run-focused, ball-control approach, aiming to control time of possession and limit risky passing. In fact, only the Eagles have a lower dropback rate, with the Steelers opting for a conservative game plan whenever possible. Wilson’s pass attempts (28 and 29 over his last two games) reflect this trend, and it’s unlikely he’ll be asked to air it out much more frequently. Instead, Pittsburgh seems focused on grinding out yards on the ground and occasionally seeking splash plays to Williams and George Pickens. Both receivers bring considerable playmaking ability, particularly Pickens, who has shown a knack for acrobatic catches, but this approach may make their fantasy production unpredictable.
Adding to the challenge, Wilson and Co. face an improving Washington pass defense that is quickly becoming one of the league’s tougher units. Head coach Dan Quinn has revitalized a group that struggled last season, guiding them to fifth in the league in passing yards allowed per game. Washington’s defense has found a strong rhythm lately, holding five of their last six opponents under 175 passing yards. Lamar Jackson was the only quarterback to surpass this mark in Week 6, and even then, the Commanders applied steady pressure. Quinn has implemented a dynamic, blitz-heavy scheme, ranking Washington ninth in both sacks and overall pressure rate. Perhaps most notably, the secondary has improved significantly, a stark contrast to their performance in 2023. Rookie cornerback Mike Sainristil has been a breakout contributor, playing well both in the slot and outside. Now, they add Pro Bowler Marshon Lattimore, who not only replaces the struggling Emmanuel Forbes Jr. but provides a high-impact upgrade. Lattimore’s play has been outstanding in 2024, often neutralizing a significant portion of the field and making it difficult for opposing quarterbacks to find a rhythm. This combination of a revitalized secondary and an aggressive pass rush presents a tough test for Wilson and his wideouts, potentially limiting the effectiveness of Pittsburgh’s passing game this week.
