Go here for this week's Rushing Matchups.
Top 5 Passing Matchups
Philadelphia vs Jacksonville
Jalen Hurts and the Eagles' passing game have hit their stride after an injury-riddled start to the season, particularly among key targets A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. Over the past three games, Hurts has completed 71% of his throws, averaging an impressive 10.4 yards per attempt. While the Eagles haven't needed high passing volume, their efficiency has made Hurts and his receivers valuable assets. Brown's 35% target share since his return highlights his central role, with games of 116, 89, and 84 yards. Smith complements Brown well, and both are consistently involved in the end zone, suggesting increased fantasy upside if game scripts push the Eagles toward a more pass-heavy approach. In the absence of tight end Dallas Goedert, Grant Calcaterra has emerged as the team's third read and is often used in downfield looks reminiscent of Goedert's role. Calcaterra's usage points to potential sleeper appeal, especially given the favorable matchup this week against a struggling Jacksonville pass defense.
The Jaguars' defense has been vulnerable to the air game, ranking 30th in total passing yards allowed and 31st in yards per attempt. Opponents have regularly surpassed 275 passing yards, with even higher potential yardage prevented by blowout scenarios. Jacksonville's cornerback situation remains in flux, as top corner Tyson Campbell has returned from injury, but Ronald Darby is now sidelined with a hip injury. This will likely result in heavy snaps for Montaric Brown and rookie Jarrian Jones, who has struggled in the slot, limiting their overall effectiveness against top-tier receivers like Brown and Smith. The Jaguars' issues extend beyond cornerbacks, as opposing tight ends have found consistent success. Cole Kmet, Hunter Henry, and Tucker Kraft posted big games, exposing a lack of support from Jacksonville's safeties and linebackers in covering short-to-intermediate routes. Given the recent performances of Brown, Smith, and Calcaterra, Hurts should have multiple options for moving the ball through the air in what looks to be a favorable matchup.
Kansas City vs Tampa Bay
Patrick Mahomes II, while not aiming to lead the league in yardage or touchdowns, remains one of the most efficient quarterbacks, especially in critical game situations. Through the season's first seven games, Mahomes has thrown for an average of 235 yards per game, surpassing 290 yards on two occasions. His consistent production has relied on adapting to the evolving structure of his receiving corps. This season, Mahomes has leaned more on high-percentage, underneath routes, primarily targeting star tight end Travis Kelce and rookie Xavier Worthy. In last week's win against Las Vegas, Kelce and Worthy were key, drawing a combined 20 of Mahomes' 35 targets, each finding the end zone. As DeAndre Hopkins integrates further into the lineup, we may see Mahomes diversify his targets even more. Hopkins played 22 snaps in his Chiefs debut, adding two receptions and setting up potential synergy with Mahomes, while JuJu Smith-Schuster's role may be in jeopardy upon his return. Mahomes' preference for targeting receivers underneath may be advantageous against a Tampa Bay secondary currently susceptible to high-tempo, quick-passing offenses. The Chiefs will likely look to exploit these gaps and take advantage of Mahomes' chemistry with Kelce and Worthy, while Hopkins could emerge as a red-zone threat.
Tampa Bay's defense, after starting strong, has seen considerable setbacks in recent weeks. Over the past four games, they've surrendered an average of 327 yards and allowed an alarming 14 touchdowns through the air. Struggles in the secondary are a major factor, worsened by injuries to key players. Jamel Dean, their top cornerback, is now on injured reserve, and Bryce Hall, a valuable reserve, is sidelined for the season. This has left Zyon McCollum as their most reliable option, though he's often left on an island due to a lack of depth and an inconsistent pass rush. Coach Todd Bowles, known for his aggressive defensive style, has been forced to blitz at a top-five rate to generate pressure. However, this strategy has exposed vulnerabilities in coverage, particularly against quick receivers who can stretch the field.
Denver at Baltimore
Bo Nix, the rookie quarterback, has shown significant improvement over his first NFL season, with his stats reflecting that growth. During his first four games, he managed just a 60% completion rate and averaged 4.8 yards per pass. However, over his last four games, he's upped those marks to a solid 67% completion and 7.1 yards per attempt. In Week 8, he posted his best game yet, completing 28 of 37 passes for 284 yards, three passing touchdowns, and a rushing score while avoiding turnovers. His development in poise and accuracy has been evident, showcasing the same qualities that earned him a first-round draft selection. This improvement is especially impressive given his limited receiving options, as Courtland Sutton stands as the only non-running back on the roster with over 20 catches this season. Sutton continues to play a pivotal role in the offense, contributing consistent playmaking ability. Although his target volume has decreased slightly as Nix becomes more comfortable, Sutton's efficiency has improved. His zero-target performance in Week 7 appears to have been an outlier, as he rebounded in Week 8 with his first 100-yard game of the season, with all of those yards coming in competitive game situations rather than garbage time. As this Broncos offense finds its rhythm, Sutton should continue to benefit from solid target share, creating opportunities for chunk plays and touchdowns as Nix progresses.
The Baltimore Ravens struggle to contain opposing passers, marking a significant vulnerability. Over the season's first eight games, seven quarterbacks have topped 265 passing yards against them, with four surpassing 325 yards. The one exception was Buffalo's Josh Allen, who stopped throwing early in a blowout win. Even Cleveland's backup, Jameis Winston, found success against this defense last week, throwing for significant yardage and engineering a late game-winning drive. Despite having talent in the secondary—two top cornerbacks and All-Pro safety Kyle Hamilton—the Ravens defense has underperformed, particularly in defending short and intermediate routes and allowing yards after the catch. Issues in positioning have created openings up the seams, as players struggle to react quickly enough, with Hamilton and the linebackers being more effective against the run than the pass.
Chicago at Arizona
Caleb Williams' recent performance streak came to a halt against Washington, where he struggled early but regained his rhythm to post a strong fourth quarter, ultimately salvaging the win. Williams has shown undeniable week-to-week growth, exhibiting one of the NFL's best downfield arms, complemented by his mobility and keen playmaking instincts. His accuracy has improved, missing fewer easy throws as he adapts to the pace of pro defenses. He's also effectively spread the ball across a deep set of weapons, with DJ Moore as the primary target but supported by versatile options. Five different Bears players have at least 17 targets, showing Williams' capacity to diversify his passing game. Rookie Rome Odunze, a feared deep threat with an impressive 14.9 average depth of target (ranking him eighth among qualifiers), appears to be overtaking Keenan Allen as the No. 2 receiver, while tight end Cole Kmet has topped 55 yards in three of the last five games.
The Cardinals' defense, meanwhile, has struggled against a tough slate of opposing quarterbacks, sitting 26th in pass defense and 29th in yards allowed per attempt. Opponents have completed a troubling 72% of passes against them, leaving Arizona vulnerable to efficient, well-rounded passers like Williams. Although top cornerback Sean Murphy-Bunting may return this week, his impact alone is unlikely to offset their defensive issues. In his absence, Max Melton and Starling Thomas V have not performed well in coverage, leading to frequent coverage gaps. Arizona's defense also plays with notably soft coverage, often conceding ample space underneath and through the middle. This scheme leaves room for receivers in the slot and intermediate zones, providing a prime opportunity for Williams to exploit these gaps. Slot defender Garrett Williams is strong but cannot cover all areas in the Cardinals' zone coverage scheme, which could signal a productive day for Kmet. Kmet excels at running routes over the middle and up the seams, where Arizona's zone leaves openings, making him a reliable target for Williams in the short to mid-range game.
Atlanta vs Dallas
Kirk Cousins is performing at an elite level, putting up remarkable numbers over his last four games. Hitting 71% of his throws during this stretch, Cousins has averaged 311 yards per game, highlighted by a pair of games where he threw for four and five touchdowns, respectively. Though much of this production came in two matchups against a struggling Buccaneers defense, Cousins still displays an impressive mix of volume and efficiency that can challenge even sturdier defenses. Aiding Cousins is a skilled supporting cast featuring Drake London and Darnell Mooney, adept at creating downfield separation and scoring opportunities. Together, they've already found the end zone nine times this season. London, in particular, has become a red-zone force, securing all five of his touchdowns inside the 20-yard line. Tight end Kyle Pitts is also coming into his own, adding another dynamic weapon to the offense. Pitts has tallied 65+ receiving yards in four straight games and notched two long touchdowns in his most recent outing. While Pitts' 16% target share may seem modest, his explosiveness is exactly what the Falcons envisioned when they selected him in the first round. This combination of red-zone prowess and big-play capability gives Cousins an array of options to exploit, especially if the Falcons continue to find Pitts open in critical situations.
Dallas' defense is struggling with key injuries and has been unable to pressure opposing quarterbacks or maintain strong downfield coverage. With Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence sidelined, the Cowboys' defensive front has had trouble creating pressure, which exposed the secondary. Since losing these defensive anchors, Dallas has allowed an average of 256 passing yards per game, a noticeable increase from the 198 yards they gave up earlier in the season. Cornerbacks Trevon Diggs and Jourdan Lewis have had inconsistent performances, and they receive minimal support from the safeties, leading to breakdowns, especially in the red zone, where they've been vulnerable to short touchdown passes.
Bottom 5 Passing Matchups
Houston at NY Jets
C.J. Stroud faces a challenging road to improve on his strong rookie campaign, as the Texans are emphasizing a more conservative, run-oriented approach to keep him protected and limit exposure. Compounding the difficulty, his core group of pass-catchers has been inconsistent due to injuries. Nico Collins, the team's top receiver, is still a week or more away from returning off injured reserve, and Stefon Diggs was just lost to an ACL injury, drastically reducing the veteran presence. As a result, the passing attack relies heavily on young receiver Tank Dell and tight end Dalton Schultz, with Dell needing to carry much of the burden. While Dell is a promising talent, his efficiency has dropped noticeably, going from an impressive 9.5 yards per target as a rookie to just 6.0 yards this season, reflecting both his increased responsibilities and defenses keying in on him.
The Jets are leaning heavily on their outstanding pass defense to maintain a slim hope of staying competitive. This unit allows only 180 passing yards per game, ranking second league-wide, and their 5.8 yards allowed per attempt is fourth. Much of their success comes from a secondary rich in talent and depth. Cornerbacks Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed form one of the NFL's best tandems, with Gardner's high-profile coverage skills complemented by Reed's physical, disruptive play. This makes it hard for opposing offenses to avoid Gardner, who typically shadows top targets. Michael Carter II further solidifies the Jets' defense as a premier slot corner, minimizing gains on short and inside routes. The recent absence of Reed due to injury exposed some vulnerabilities, as backup Brandon Echols struggled against George Pickens, allowing two big plays downfield. However, when this group is fully intact, they are exceedingly difficult to beat, even for promising young quarterbacks like Stroud.
Baltimore vs Denver
Lamar Jackson has been exceptional this season, using his arm and legs to keep Baltimore's offense dynamic. Over the last four games, Jackson has averaged 310 passing yards, taking advantage of matchups against softer defenses. This week, the addition of Diontae Johnson, acquired from Pittsburgh, adds a new layer to the passing game. Johnson's ability to create separation and operate in tight spaces should boost the Ravens' receiving corps, though it may introduce target competition with Zay Flowers, the current top option. Both Johnson and Flowers excel at short-to-intermediate routes, potentially splitting targets and reducing each other's ceiling in games where Baltimore leans on the run. Additionally, with Denver's secondary focused on limiting outside receivers, tight ends Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely may see an uptick in targets.
Denver's defense, however, poses a challenging matchup for Jackson. This unit has been a stabilizing force for the Broncos in 2024, consistently limiting opposing passers. So far, Denver has held every opponent to under 237 passing yards, only allowing multiple passing touchdowns in garbage time last week. Cornerbacks Patrick Surtain II and Riley Moss have proven to be a lockdown duo, collectively containing high-end receivers like DK Metcalf, Mike Evans, George Pickens, and Garrett Wilson to a mere 195 combined yards at just 7.0 yards per target. Denver's aggressive blitz packages, led by a versatile pass rush, apply frequent pressure on opposing quarterbacks while the secondary handles coverage. Denver's tendency to push passing action toward the middle of the field could bring Baltimore's tight ends into the spotlight. Andrews and Likely, who saw limited production recently, may find opportunities against the Broncos defense, which tends to emphasize outside coverage and can leave openings inside. Still, Denver's disciplined defense could contain Baltimore's top playmakers, especially given their skill at pressuring quarterbacks and restricting yardage after the catch. This matchup offers a notable challenge for Jackson and the Ravens, testing how effectively Baltimore's passing game can adapt against a well-rounded, disruptive defense.
NY Jets vs Houston
The Jets' passing game continues to fall short, primarily due to Aaron Rodgers' noticeable decline and the team's stagnant offensive scheme. Rodgers, now at 40, hasn't surpassed 250 passing yards in 19 of his last 25 games, including his final season with the Packers. His touchdown and yardage production have dropped considerably, compounded by a lack of effective offensive variety. This conservative play-calling offers limited pre-snap movement or tactical adjustments, leaving Rodgers and his talented receiving corps in predictable, often unproductive situations. Garrett Wilson has managed to shine despite these issues, consistently showing the ability to create plays regardless of who is throwing. However, high-profile addition Davante Adams has made minimal impact since joining, producing just 84 yards on 15 targets. At the same time, Allen Lazard and Mike Williams have been relegated to situational roles rather than consistent offensive threats.
The Texans' defense has thrived under head coach DeMeco Ryans, establishing itself as one of the league's top units, especially in pass defense. Known for an aggressive, high-pressure approach, Ryans has molded the Texans into a near-shutdown defense, sitting third in sacks and fourth in pressure rate. This potent combination has allowed them to hold opponents to only 5.4 yards per pass attempt and has limited every quarterback they've faced to under 250 passing yards this season. They've already caused significant struggles for strong competition, including a disastrous Week 5 outing for Josh Allen, who completed only 9 of 30 attempts for 131 yards, and they also held Packers quarterback Jordan Love to a modest 6.7 yards per throw. The Texans' defensive strength extends into the secondary, where standout cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. anchors coverage alongside versatile safety Jalen Pitre, who splits his time across roles but typically covers the slot. Pitre, following a quiet second year, has regained his playmaking form and adds an additional layer of coverage complexity to Houston's defense. With such high-caliber talent, the Texans have the tools to continue stifling downfield threats and disrupting offensive momentum, which spells trouble for the Jets' struggling passing attack.
New England at Tennessee
The Patriots' offense had shown promise with rookie quarterback Drake Maye, whose playmaking skills revitalized the passing game. However, after Maye suffered a concussion in Week 8, it's unlikely the team will risk rushing him back, especially given his status as a long-term investment. In Maye's absence, Jacoby Brissett is expected to start, which significantly lowers the outlook for the offense. Brissett's metrics this season have been among the league's worst: he ranks last in yards per throw and touchdown rate, only clearing 150 passing yards twice across his six starts and leading the team to four scoreless games through the air. His conservative, checkdown-heavy approach will make it difficult for the Patriots to produce consistently against a competent defense. The Patriots' current receiving corps doesn't inspire much confidence, especially without Maye's deep-ball capability. Hunter Henry, who leads the team with fewer than 45 yards per game, and slot receiver Demario Douglas may see slightly elevated targets due to Brissett's tendency to opt for short, safe throws. But beyond those two, none of New England's weapons appear poised for significant production, even in an ideal matchup.
The Titans' pass defense, despite their struggles on offense, has been formidable. Apart from a Week 7 breakdown against Josh Allen, they've held opponents to an impressive average of 141 passing yards per game and 5.4 yards per attempt. Their season thus far has involved matchups against weaker quarterbacks, though they've struggled in key outings, notably allowing Jared Goff to find the end zone three times last week. Nevertheless, they've managed to limit many top-tier wide receivers, holding Miami's Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle to just 4.5 yards per target combined. Tennessee has relied heavily on breakout corner Jarvis Brownlee Jr. to hold down the outside after L'Jarius Sneed's inconsistent performances and subsequent injury. While their coverage over the middle against tight ends remains a vulnerability, the Titans' well-coordinated secondary, paired with Brissett's conservative playstyle, minimizes the potential for a breakout game by the Patriots.
Cleveland vs LA Chargers
Jameis Winston gave the struggling offense a much-needed boost last week, throwing for 334 yards and three touchdowns to secure an upset over the Ravens. However, this week's matchup presents significant challenges, particularly given Winston's known risk-taking tendencies. Although Winston brought some big-play potential, he had several near-interceptions that could have been costly. Limited reps over the past two years—just 100 passes thrown in total—add to the unpredictability of his performance. Additionally, this offense lacks a true No. 1 receiver, with options like Jerry Jeudy and Elijah Moore providing only limited firepower. Cedric Tillman has shown potential with 15 catches for 180 yards and two touchdowns in his last two games, but prior to that, he had never posted more than 55 yards in a game. The inconsistency of these weapons and Winston's penchant for high-risk throws make this offense a shaky play against a disciplined defense.
The revamped Chargers defense under Jim Harbaugh has performed notably well this season, marking a strong improvement from previous units. They allowed a season-high 278 passing yards last week, primarily funneled through the Saints' top target, Chris Olave. Apart from that, the Chargers have stifled most receivers, limiting notable talents like George Pickens, Courtland Sutton, and Marvin Harrison Jr. Impressively, they've sustained this performance without star cornerback Asante Samuel Jr., who remains on IR. Veteran Kristian Fulton, who had struggled previously in Tennessee, has found his footing here, supported by rookies Tarheeb Still and Cam Hart in key roles. The secondary benefits from the presence of All-Pro safety Derwin James Jr., who adds versatility and leadership. Overall, this disciplined Chargers defense poses a significant challenge for Winston. Known for forcing mistakes from erratic quarterbacks, they are well-equipped to expose the high-risk, high-reward approach that Winston often employs. This matchup could reveal vulnerabilities in Winston's game, making it a tough week to expect consistent production from him and his supporting cast.
