Go here for this week's Rushing Matchups.
Top 5 Passing Matchup
Tampa Bay vs Baltimore
Baker Mayfield is experiencing a true resurgence in Tampa Bay this season, delivering career-best numbers in completion percentage, yardage, and touchdown rates through six games. His latest performance was especially impressive: completing 24 of 36 passes for 325 yards and 4 touchdowns in a 51-point blowout win against the Saints. Notably, this came against a quality pass defense, making his success even more significant. However, Mayfield still has his share of flaws. Even in that breakout game, he threw three mid-game interceptions that could have changed the outcome, highlighting his inconsistency at times. Much of Mayfield's success can be attributed to Tampa Bay's strong receiving corps. While Mike Evans' status is uncertain due to a limp he sustained during the Saints game, Chris Godwin has stepped up as the team's most consistent playmaker. Godwin caught 11 of 13 targets last week, including two touchdowns, and has been a reliable force for Mayfield throughout the season. Even on his “worst” day this year, Godwin managed five receptions for 64 yards against a tough Falcons defense. If Evans is limited or sidelined, rookie Jalen McMillan or tight end Cade Otton may have opportunities to shine.
The Ravens' pass defense, while effective in preventing touchdowns, has allowed over 269 passing yards in five of their six games this season. Their pass rush is underperforming, ranking 24th in both hurry and blitz rates, which has increased pressure on their secondary. Although Marlon Humphrey and Brandon Stephens are solid in coverage, the secondary overall is vulnerable to blown coverages and missed tackles. This was particularly evident in their recent game against the Bengals, where Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins both had standout performances. Last week, Washington's Terry McLaurin also won key one-on-one battles, scoring two red-zone touchdowns. The Ravens' inability to consistently defend deep passes makes this a favorable fantasy matchup for Mayfield and the Buccaneers' passing game, particularly if Godwin remains involved and Evans is able to suit up. Until the Ravens show they can tighten up their downfield defense, opposing quarterbacks and wide receivers should continue to find success against them.
Baltimore at Tampa Bay
Lamar Jackson has been putting on a show in the Ravens' passing game, proving doubters wrong by throwing for over 300 yards in back-to-back weeks and tallying five touchdowns in the process. His only interception in that span came off a dropped pass by tight end Mark Andrews. The Ravens' offense is now fully embracing Jackson's strengths, blending play-action and his natural playmaking ability to keep defenses on edge. Last week against Washington, Jackson spread the wealth among his receivers. Zay Flowers emerged as his top target, catching 9 passes for 132 yards, while Rashod Bateman chipped in with 71 yards on 4 receptions. Even Andrews, who had been relatively quiet, came alive with 66 yards on 3 catches. This high-functioning air attack now faces another favorable matchup against the Buccaneers, a defense that has struggled recently against top-tier wideouts.
Tampa Bay's pass defense may appear solid in the rankings, but that could be deceiving. In Week 5, they were exposed by Kirk Cousins, who threw for 509 yards and 4 touchdowns, raising major concerns. Although they were able to rebound somewhat last week, it was against a Saints team led by a fifth-round rookie quarterback and missing top receiver Chris Olave for much of the game. Todd Bowles' aggressive, blitz-heavy defense can create havoc, but it also leaves the secondary vulnerable, particularly in coverage. Jamel Dean, their top cornerback, left last week's game with a hamstring injury, potentially weakening the unit even further. If the Buccaneers can't get to him consistently, it's hard to imagine their secondary, which may rely on inexperienced players like Tyrek Funderburk, Dallis Flowers, and Keenan Isaac, being able to contain the Ravens' high-powered passing game. This sets up another promising outing for Jackson and his primary weapons, particularly Flowers and Andrews, who could thrive against this defense.
New England at Jacksonville
Drake Maye offers a much-needed spark for the Patriots after Jacoby Brissett's five uninspiring starts. Brissett managed just two touchdowns during that stretch, never surpassing 170 passing yards, leaving the offense stagnant. In contrast, Maye's first start showcased his dynamic potential, as he completed 61% of his passes for three touchdowns. This newfound willingness to test defenses downfield immediately stood out, particularly on a well-placed throw to Kayshon Boutte along the deep right boundary. Maye's chemistry with Boutte and slot receiver Demario Douglas was a clear highlight, with Douglas hauling in 7 receptions for 92 yards and a score. Tight end Hunter Henry also contributed with a short touchdown, rounding out what could be a more balanced attack moving forward. While this Patriots offense might not be explosive just yet, Maye's ability to stretch the field gives them a much-needed boost heading into the back half of the season. This week's matchup could offer the best opportunity for the Patriots to capitalize on Maye's strengths over the next couple of months.
The Jacksonville Jaguars' pass defense has struggled mightily, hitting a low point in London, where they allowed Chicago's Caleb Williams to complete 79% of his throws for four touchdowns. On the season, Jacksonville has allowed 330+ passing yards in half of their games and has been repeatedly gashed by top wideouts like Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and Nico Collins. Deep threats and underneath weapons alike have found success, and opposing quarterbacks have thrown four touchdowns in two separate games this season. The Jaguars' defensive woes can be attributed to a lack of pass rush and weak coverage, particularly from replacement-level players like Montaric Brown and Antonio Johnson. While top cornerback Tyson Campbell's return could help, Jacksonville's secondary remains a major vulnerability. This matchup with the Patriots provides Maye with a prime opportunity to continue his development and attack a unit that has struggled against both deep and short passing plays.
LA Chargers at Arizona
Justin Herbert continues to show why he's considered one of the NFL's top young quarterbacks, even as the Chargers adjust their offensive approach under coach Jim Harbaugh. Herbert has adapted well to a more balanced, run-heavy system, emphasizing efficiency rather than sheer volume. Although he's not dropping back as often, Herbert's accuracy and playmaking remain top-tier, making every opportunity count. Rookie wideout Ladd McConkey has quickly emerged as Herbert's go-to target, particularly in critical situations. With a 26% target share, McConkey has solidified his role in the offense, especially inside the red zone. Over the last two weeks, he's garnered four targets inside the 10-yard line, converting two into touchdowns. His reliability in short-yardage situations has been vital to the Chargers' offense, which has pivoted to a more controlled, play-action-based scheme. Meanwhile, Quentin Johnston offers big-play potential, though inconsistent, providing more of a boom-or-bust option.
On the other side of the ball, the Arizona Cardinals' pass defense looks statistically middle-of-the-pack, sitting at 19th in passing yardage allowed. However, this number is misleading. The Cardinals have faced one of the lightest passing workloads in the league due to several unusual game scripts. When opponents do choose to pass, they've done so with great efficiency, completing 72% of their passes (31st in the league) and averaging 7.8 yards per attempt (30th). Opposing offenses have also found the end zone through the air 10 times this season, ranking the Cardinals 24th in touchdowns allowed. The Cardinals' secondary is especially vulnerable. Soft coverage schemes across the field have led to significant struggles, particularly against slot receivers who have exploited mismatches in the short and intermediate areas. Safeties Jalen Thompson and Budda Baker are more effective in run support and offer little in terms of deep coverage. Last week's game against the Packers was a prime example of the Cardinals' defensive issues, as Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs both succeeded in finding the end zone multiple times, capitalizing on blown coverages.
Arizona's pass rush has also been ineffective, ranking 29th in pressure rate. Without any real disruption up front, opposing quarterbacks have had plenty of time to exploit this weak secondary. Herbert and the Chargers should find plenty of opportunities, especially with McConkey likely to see open space throughout the game. If Arizona can't generate pressure, the Chargers' controlled passing attack could have a field day.
Denver at New Orleans
Bo Nix continues to grow into Sean Payton's offense week by week, showcasing better efficiency and decision-making, even though he's not attacking downfield often. This measured approach has helped him build a solid connection with wide receiver Courtland Sutton, who has become the clear focal point of the passing game, garnering 24% of Nix's targets. Sutton's role as a big-play and red-zone threat was evident last week when he caught four passes for 53 yards, including a highlight-reel one-handed touchdown. He also had a 46-yard reception wiped out by a penalty, further showing his explosive potential in this offense. Sutton's ability to win contested catches and make plays in the red zone will be critical, especially in a favorable matchup against the Saints' defense, which does not shadow receivers with star cornerback Marshon Lattimore. Expect Payton and Nix to continue scheming ways to get the ball to Sutton downfield.
On the defensive side, Dennis Allen's once-vaunted New Orleans pass defense is having an uncharacteristically poor season. After years of being one of the NFL's best units, they've fallen to 29th in yardage allowed (24th per attempt) and have given up 299 or more passing yards in four of their six games. The only quarterback who didn't exploit them was Bryce Young in Week 1. The Saints were further exposed last week when Baker Mayfield threw for 325 yards and four touchdowns in a blowout win. This defense is aggressive and often gambles on big plays, but recently, that risk-taking has led to more losses than wins. Over the last two weeks, they've been gashed by JuJu Smith-Schuster (7 catches, 130 yards) and Chris Godwin (11 catches, 125 yards, and two touchdowns), who did significant damage after the catch. Marshon Lattimore remains one of the NFL's top cornerbacks, but even he has been susceptible to occasional missteps. On the opposite side, Paulson Adebo has struggled, which only compounds the Saints' issues. Their safety play has also declined, particularly against tight ends, as Dallas Goedert and Travis Kelce combined for 19 catches and 240 yards when facing this defense. With a suspect pass rush and secondary, the Saints' aggressive style has turned into a liability more often than not, making this a favorable matchup for an improving Nix-Sutton connection.
Bottom 5 Passing Matchups
Pittsburgh vs NY Jets
The Steelers face significant questions at quarterback, despite their 4-2 record. Justin Fields has played conservatively, limiting turnovers, but coach Mike Tomlin is reportedly considering a change under center. There's speculation that Tomlin may turn to Russell Wilson, though it's unclear whether he would provide much of an improvement given the current limitations of the passing attack. The air game primarily revolves around George Pickens, who has shown big-play ability but lacks consistency. Pickens has surpassed 60 yards in just two of the six games so far, and has yet to score a touchdown in 2024. While he remains a threat, Pickens' output is unpredictable, and last week he managed just 22 yards before salvaging his day with a garbage-time catch. Beyond Pickens, the Steelers lack other reliable receiving options, as no other player has seen more than 26 targets. This makes the passing game highly volatile, with little room for consistent production, even in games where the team is winning.
The Jets' defense, particularly its secondary, remains a dominant force. They've allowed just one opponent to surpass 231 passing yards this season, ranking second in the league in passing yards allowed per game and third in yards per attempt. Sauce Gardner continues to solidify his standing as one of the league's premier cover corners. Gardner doesn't shadow opposing receivers but has been instrumental in shutting down top playmakers like Justin Jefferson, Courtland Sutton, and DeAndre Hopkins. Jefferson's 92-yard outing came on 14 targets, highlighting Gardner's ability to limit efficiency. Meanwhile, D.J. Reed has been nearly as effective, though he is likely to miss this week after leaving last game with an injury. Michael Carter II, another key piece in the slot, is questionable with a back injury but could return. If the Jets are without Reed and Carter, they'll rely even more on Gardner and a mix of Cover-2 and Cover-3 zone defenses to neutralize the Steelers' limited passing game. Considering the volatility of Pittsburgh's offense and the lack of reliable weapons beyond Pickens, the Jets' defense is in a favorable position to control this matchup.
New Orleans vs Denver
Spencer Rattler's debut as a replacement for Derek Carr was about as expected for a fifth-round rookie quarterback thrust into action. While he showed flashes of poise, Rattler struggled to move the offense effectively, completing passes at just 6.1 yards per attempt and taking five sacks behind a porous offensive line. The Saints' offensive line, currently ranked last in pass-blocking by Footballguys' Matt Bitonti, gave him little time to make anything happen downfield. The situation is further complicated by the likely absence of top wide receivers Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed, making it even harder for Rattler to find reliable targets. Without much of a downfield threat, the game plan will likely lean heavily on Alvin Kamara's short-yardage gains, as well as quick check-downs to tight ends and secondary receivers like Bub Means. Rattler's ability to stretch the field and generate explosive plays will be severely limited, making it tough for the Saints to develop any kind of sustained offense.
Guided by defensive coordinator Vance Joseph, the Broncos' defense has been one of the league's most formidable units, particularly against the pass. The Broncos have held every opponent under 240 passing yards this season, including shutdowns of top-tier quarterbacks like Geno Smith and Aaron Rodgers. Their success largely stems from a blitz-heavy approach—they send extra rushers on 42% of snaps, which has resulted in them ranking second in sacks and fourth in pressure rate. This aggressive style of defense is likely to create even more issues for Rattler, who will face significant pressure with little help from his offensive line. Even if star cornerback Patrick Surtain II is unable to play, the Broncos boast enough depth in the secondary to maintain strong coverage. Riley Moss has emerged as an excellent man-to-man corner, complementing the Broncos' already dominant pass defense. Given the Saints' current state, it's unlikely Rattler or the offensive unit will find much success against this relentless defense.
Buffalo vs Tennessee
Josh Allen's performance has taken a notable dip from his early-season MVP-level play. Over the last three weeks, Allen has averaged just 175 passing yards per game, completing only 6.3 yards per attempt. This dip in production can be attributed to multiple factors, including the Buffalo Bills' shift away from a pass-heavy offense. Even when trailing, Allen hasn't been asked to air it out, with only two games this season where he's thrown over 30 passes or surpassed 220 yards. In a Week 6 game, running back Ray Davis took center stage for the offense, highlighting the Bills' preference to lean on their run game when possible. The addition of Amari Cooper could provide a spark to the passing attack if he suits up this week. Cooper would provide Allen with a legitimate No. 1 option, which could lead to an uptick in passing volume, especially in a more improvisational “street-ball” style of play that Allen excels in. Without Cooper, the Bills' passing game is a more distributed attack, where tight end Dalton Kincaid (with a 21% target share) and slot receiver Khalil Shakir (18%) have been the most targeted options. However, this has not translated into major production for the receiving corps, as no receiver has hit the 75-yard mark in a game all season.
The Tennessee Titans have established themselves as one of the league's premier pass defenses. They've dominated across six games, allowing only one opponent to top 200 passing yards—Malik Willis of the Packers with 202 yards in an unusual gameplan. Most recently, the Titans stifled Joe Flacco and the Colts, holding them to a mere 5.0 yards per attempt. This secondary has shut down some of the league's most dynamic wideouts, including DJ Moore, Garrett Wilson, Jayden Reed, and Tyreek Hill, who have all struggled to make an impact. Tennessee's defensive backfield, led by L'Jarius Sneed and breakout star Jarvis Brownlee Jr.., has been a nightmare for opposing quarterbacks. Sneed, a key piece from his time in Kansas City, continues to dominate in coverage, while Roger McCreary has solidified his role in the slot. With such talented coverage personnel, opposing quarterbacks often shy away from targeting their top receivers, making it difficult for offenses to find a rhythm. If the Bills' passing attack does get going, the Titans' two-deep safety scheme will ensure that any deep passing attempts are well-contested. This matchup suggests Allen will continue to rely on short, safe throws and the run game to move the ball.
Indianapolis vs Miami
It remains uncertain whether franchise quarterback Anthony Richardson will suit up for the Colts this week. While Richardson has returned to full practice, a final decision has yet to be made. From a performance standpoint, the Colts' offense has actually functioned more efficiently with veteran Joe Flacco under center, especially in the passing game. Richardson, who is still developing as a passer, has yet to top 220 yards in any of his three starts, with totals of 212, 204, and 167 yards. While he brings big-play potential, his inexperience is still evident, and this offense tends to sacrifice efficiency for explosiveness when he plays. Michael Pittman Jr., Richardson's go-to receiver, has been a non-factor with Richardson in the lineup, particularly over the first few weeks of the season. Pittman has now added a nagging back injury to his concerns, which may limit him further. Over the past three games, slot receiver Josh Downs has emerged as Flacco's most productive weapon, averaging 8 catches and 72 yards, along with two touchdowns. However, Downs' production may crash if Richardson returns, as he has averaged just 4 catches for 44 yards with the quarterback under center.
The Dolphins' defense enters this matchup on a favorable stretch, having faced two of the NFL's lowest-rated passers in their last two games: Will Levis and Jacoby Brissett. This week, they may face another in Richardson, the 32nd-ranked passer in the NFL. While this unit hasn't been truly tested, their talent level is high enough to limit an inexperienced quarterback like Richardson, especially one working with a banged-up receiving corps. Cornerback Jalen Ramsey is enjoying a strong season, and Kendall Fuller remains a reliable presence on the other side of the field. Wide receivers not named DK Metcalf have been mostly shut down in this matchup, and while they do miss safety Jordan Poyer, Marcus Maye has proven to be a reliable contingency plan.
Seattle at Atlanta
Geno Smith continues to lead the NFL in passing volume, with a league-high 41.8 attempts per game, resulting in plenty of completions and yardage. However, his efficiency has taken a sharp decline as the season has progressed. Smith is currently 17th among quarterbacks in yards per attempt, sitting at 7.1, and his touchdown-to-interception ratio (6 TDs to 6 INTs) shows he's struggled to convert those opportunities into points. When considering sacks and giveaways, Smith drops to 21st in adjusted net yards per attempt. This highlights the growing inconsistency in his game. A significant change over the past three weeks has been a reduced focus on the deep ball, which had been a staple in the early season. In the first three games, Smith targeted DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett on 41% of his throws, with just 15% going to running backs. However, since then, the percentage of targets to running backs has risen to 23%, with 20% now going to slot receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba. This shift in approach has resulted in lower-impact plays, which could become a problem against a defense like the Falcons'.
The Atlanta Falcons boast one of the most formidable secondaries in the NFL. Led by safeties Jessie Bates III II and Justin Simmons, they have yet to allow a single opponent to reach 240 passing yards. Even quarterbacks like Patrick Mahomes II and Jalen Hurts struggled against this defense, managing just 5.6 and 6.1 yards per attempt, respectively. Both were forced to lock onto one receiver, as the Falcons' coverage unit excelled in limiting options. A.J. Terrell Jr. continues to improve in man coverage, and cornerbacks Mike Hughes and Dee Alford have made significant strides in their roles. Atlanta's success comes despite a lack of pressure on quarterbacks; they rank 19th in blitz rate and 30th in pressure rate. Still, the secondary's sheer talent has allowed them to stifle opposing passing attacks. Smith's recent struggles and the Falcons' smothering defense could spell trouble for Seattle's aerial attack, especially if the Seahawks continue to focus on short-yardage plays instead of challenging the Falcons' secondary downfield.
