Go here for this week's Rushing Matchups.
Top 5 Passing Matchups
San Francisco vs Arizona
Brock Purdy has surprised many by leading the NFL in passing through four weeks, averaging 283 yards per game. This is a notable increase from his usual pace, largely driven by the absence of Christian McCaffrey, who is sidelined due to injury. Though Jordan Mason fills in capably, he’s not quite the offensive centerpiece McCaffrey is when healthy. Purdy is now throwing 31 passes per game, a 15% increase over his career average. While this figure isn’t extraordinary by league standards, Purdy thrives in the highly efficient San Francisco system under head coach Kyle Shanahan. Surrounded by elite pass-catching talent, Purdy has become one of the league’s premier deep-ball passers. In fact, he ranks second in air yards per attempt and completion, trailing only Anthony Richardson. Despite several injuries to key players, Purdy’s outlook remains promising. Tight end George Kittle has returned and is contributing impactful plays, while Jauan Jennings has emerged as one of the best backup wideouts in the league. Jennings has led the 49ers with 18 targets over the last two weeks, translating them into 263 yards and three touchdowns. With this versatile group, Purdy continues to lead one of the NFL's most efficient offenses.
On the other hand, the Cardinals have faced relatively few passing attempts (fourth-lowest in the league), but when challenged, their defense has faltered. They rank 31st in yards allowed per throw and 25th in expected value against the pass. Over the last two weeks, opposing quarterbacks Jared Goff and rookie Jayden Daniels have completed a staggering 83% of their passes against Arizona at 8.2 yards per attempt. Both quarterbacks also saw a receiver haul in seven receptions against this unit. Arizona’s defense lacks young talent, particularly in the secondary, where Sean Murphy-Bunting is miscast as an outside cornerback, and Starling Thomas V has struggled in coverage. Safeties Jalen Thompson and Budda Baker are far more effective in run support than in pass defense. Meanwhile, slot corner Garrett Williams excels at limiting yards after the catch, but this often leads to high-reception games for opposing receivers, especially in PPR formats. The Cardinals' defense has yet to face a true passing barrage, but a close divisional game against a prolific passing offense like the 49ers could push them into a high-volume shootout, exposing their weaknesses further.
Indianapolis at Jacksonville
Despite not having a secured starting job since 2019, Joe Flacco has made at least one start every season from 2020-2023, and this could be his first start in 2024. Anthony Richardson exited Week 4 with a hip pointer, an injury that could potentially sideline him for Week 5. If Flacco starts, we can expect him to drop back and throw regularly, just as he did during his time filling in for Cleveland in 2023. Last week, Flacco dropped back 28 times in just 3.5 quarters despite the Colts leading comfortably for much of the game. This quarterback shift might benefit top wideout Michael Pittman Jr, who finally had a breakout game in Week 4. Pittman, who had just 11 catches for 88 yards across the first three weeks, exploded for 6 receptions and 113 yards against the Steelers. However, Pittman is talented enough to produce no matter who is under center, as his first two big plays of the day (a 32-yard and a 28-yard reception) came with Richardson at quarterback. If Flacco remains the starter, Pittman and wideout Josh Downs are likely to dominate the Colts’ target share. In Week 4, the two combined for 14 catches, 195 yards, and a touchdown, with Downs continuing to emerge as a reliable slot receiver.
The Jaguars’ pass defense remains weak, as they were scorched yet again in Week 4. This time, it was by division rival C.J. Stroud, who passed for 345 yards and led a game-winning drive late in the fourth quarter. Houston’s top wideout, Nico Collins had his way with the Jaguars’ secondary, posting 151 yards and a touchdown on 12 catches. The absence of star cornerback Tyson Campbell is a glaring issue, leaving young and inexperienced players like Montaric Brown and Jarrian Jones to try and hold things together. Brown has been consistently targeted by opposing offenses, while Jones, despite showing potential, is still growing into a full-time role. The Jaguars’ safeties, Andre Cisco and Antonio Johnson, are more comfortable defending the run than the pass, which further limits their ability to help against the deep ball. Adding to their defensive struggles, the Jaguars’ once-solid pass rush has regressed significantly. They’ve dropped from 12th to 23rd in pressure rate, and even edge rusher Josh Hines-Allen has managed just six quarterback hits and one sack this season. Without any improvement in their pass rush or secondary, the Jaguars could continue to be vulnerable to opposing passing attacks.
Jacksonville vs Indianapolis
The 2024 season hasn’t started as expected for the Jaguars or Trevor Lawrence, as they find themselves at 0-4, and Lawrence has yet to hit his stride. Despite not surpassing 220 passing yards in a single game thus far, Lawrence still displays his physical gifts and potential. His efficiency downfield is promising, as he ranks fifth among qualifying quarterbacks in air yards per completion. A favorable Week 5 matchup could provide an opportunity for Lawrence to elevate his game. The Jaguars’ passing attack still features dynamic weapons. Rookie wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr. continues to win against man coverage on the outside, offering big-play potential. Christian Kirk remains a reliable possession receiver who can operate effectively both inside and outside. Additionally, Gabe Davis, who started the season strong with 6 catches for 105 yards over the first two weeks, could see a resurgence after a dip in production. Although the Jaguars’ passing unit hasn’t been especially enticing in recent weeks, there are signs that Lawrence and his receivers could switch into a higher gear soon.
The Colts' defense has allowed opposing quarterbacks to find their rhythm for two consecutive weeks. In Week 3, rookie Caleb Williams from the Bears threw for 363 yards and 2 touchdowns in a breakout performance. The following week, Pittsburgh’s Justin Fields recorded 312 passing yards and a touchdown, marking his best game since early last season. The Colts’ cornerback duo of Jaylon Jones and Samuel Womack III has struggled against big-bodied downfield receivers like Nico Collins and George Pickens, who have taken advantage of this matchup. Slot cornerback Kenny Moore II’s potential absence due to a hip injury could further weaken the secondary. Moore had been instrumental in limiting early-season performances from players like Tank Dell and Jayden Reed. If he remains sidelined, Chris Lammons, who has limited NFL experience, will be tasked with covering Christian Kirk or even Evan Engram. This opens the door for Trevor Lawrence to exploit this matchup and capitalize on yards after the catch (YAC) opportunities.
Green Bay at LA Rams
Jordan Love made a significant return in Week 4, tasked with leading the Packers' offense through 54 pass attempts in a game where they had to rally from behind. However, Love’s performance was visibly affected by his physical condition, as he appeared to struggle with his mobility, making it difficult to generate power on his deep throws. Despite those physical limitations, Love was still able to involve a wide range of receivers, spreading his targets across 10 different players. His ability to distribute the ball helped keep the Packers' offense competitive, even as they trailed for most of the game. Love’s task becomes more challenging with Christian Watson unavailable, but the Packers' receiving depth has proven valuable. Romeo Doubs, Jayden Reed, and Dontayvion Wicks were heavily involved in Week 4, with Reed offering significant upside due to his explosiveness. Reed has made the most of limited targets, accumulating impressive lines such as 4-138-1 and 7-139-1 in previous games. Additionally, Wicks emerged as a top target last week, seeing 13 targets and scoring twice, signaling his potential importance in Love’s passing game.
On the defensive side, the Rams have encountered significant struggles in their secondary. Despite not facing an unusually high volume of pass attempts, they have allowed an alarming 8.6 yards per throw, the most in the league. In Week 4, Bears rookie quarterback Caleb Williams posted an efficient game against them, completing 17 of 23 passes. Veteran cornerback Tre’Davious White has been unable to regain his pre-injury form and was notably beaten for a long touchdown by Marvin Harrison Jr. in Week 2. Meanwhile, the Rams’ safeties, Quentin Lake and Kamren Curl, have struggled to provide adequate help downfield. Their coverage breakdowns were evident when San Francisco’s Jauan Jennings exploited wide gaps in their zone defense, particularly on easy crossing routes, leading to significant gains.
Cincinnati vs Baltimore
Despite the Bengals’ 1-3 record, Joe Burrow has actually opened the 2024 season in strong form. Burrow currently ranks fourth in completion rate, third in success rate, and ninth in adjusted yardage rate, which factors in both sacks and interceptions. However, due to poor game scripts and inconsistent protection from his offensive line, Burrow has struggled to push the ball downfield. Footballguys’ Matt Bitonti ranks the Bengals’ offensive line 15th overall but a disappointing 21st in pass protection. With Burrow consistently facing pressure, he’s been forced into shorter, quicker throws. The good news is that this attack still shows plenty of potential. With defenses bracketing Ja'Marr Chase in coverage, the star receiver has adjusted well, consistently beating defenders on digs and crossing routes. His 63-yard touchdown against the Panthers is a prime example of his ability to break free despite constant defensive attention. Meanwhile, the return of Tee Higgins gives Burrow another downfield weapon. Higgins' Week 4 performance (6 catches, 60 yards on 10 targets) offers a solid baseline, and the Bengals offense is poised to take off if he continues to ramp up.
On the defensive side, the Ravens might finally be waking up from their early-season struggles. Their performance against Josh Allen and the Bills in Week 4 was impressive, holding them to just 5.9 yards per throw. However, their early-season struggles can’t be ignored—before that, they allowed an alarming 8.1 yards per attempt across their first three games. Patrick Mahomes II, Gardner Minshew II, and Dak Prescott all led strong rallies against them, with the Ravens giving up 291, 276, and 379 passing yards in those matchups. Their pass rush has been underwhelming, with only two players recording multiple sacks. Despite blitzing more frequently than in previous seasons, they’ve been unable to apply consistent pressure, slipping to the middle of the pack in pressure rate. If Burrow is given a clean pocket this week, the Bengals’ passing attack could exploit the Ravens’ lingering defensive issues.
Bottom 5 Passing Matchups
New England vs Miami
For better or worse, Jacoby Brissett will remain the starting quarterback for the New England Patriots. However, his performance has been underwhelming so far this season. Among 33 qualifiers, Brissett ranks near the bottom in key quarterback metrics, sitting 28th in completion percentage, 30th in yards per throw, and 28th in adjusted net yardage, which accounts for sacks and interceptions. The struggling Patriots offense is compounded by playing behind one of the NFL’s worst offensive lines, ranked 24th by Matt Bitonti, leading to frequent pressures and sacks. Even when Brissett has time to set and throw, the lack of downfield talent on the team limits his options. The Patriots’ passing attack has focused on tight end Hunter Henry and slot receiver Demario Douglas, who have collectively garnered 35% of the team's targets. However, neither has been particularly effective at stretching the field, averaging 9.3 yards per reception. Rookie wideout Ja'Lynn Polk, who was expected to inject some explosiveness into the offense, has played 62% of the offensive snaps but has managed just 61 receiving yards through four games. Outside of a few decent performances, such as Henry’s strong Week 2 and Douglas’ serviceable Week 3, no Patriot has topped 31 receiving yards in a single game. With this anemic passing offense, it's tough to envision New England staying competitive in any sort of high-scoring matchup.
Meanwhile, the Miami Dolphins are thriving on the defensive side of the ball, and for the time being, they are relying on this defense to win games. The Dolphins’ pass defense has been excellent, effectively shutting down some of the league's top quarterbacks. They've managed to hold Trevor Lawrence and Josh Allen to a combined 301 passing yards at just 7.5 yards per attempt, and no opposing wide receiver has topped 65 yards against them outside of DK Metcalf, whose 71 yards came on a single play. Miami’s success in pass coverage can be attributed to their outstanding veteran cornerback duo of Jalen Ramsey and Kendall Fuller. Ramsey, enjoying his best year in coverage since 2022, has anchored the defense, while Fuller has been an ideal complement, excelling as the No. 2 cornerback. The Dolphins also bolstered their secondary by adding safeties Jordan Poyer and Marcus Maye, significantly strengthening the overall unit. Against a struggling Patriots offense, this Dolphins defense looks well-positioned to keep Brissett and his limited arsenal in check, potentially holding them to minimal production once again.
Carolina at Chicago
Andy Dalton is a much more competent quarterback than Bryce Young at this stage in their careers, but he’s far from a dependable fantasy option. Dalton has revitalized the Carolina offense after a tough stretch under Young, who has struggled to find consistency as one of the more challenged rookie quarterbacks in recent memory. Dalton’s experience and ability to read defenses have made him more reliable in feeding the offense's top weapons, specifically Diontae Johnson, who has seen 30% of team targets since Dalton took over. Despite Dalton's ability to distribute the ball effectively, he remains limited when pushing the ball downfield. He’s still a veteran backup, prone to mistakes under pressure, often forcing him into safe, short throws that lack big-play potential. In this matchup against Chicago, Dalton will likely lean heavily on Johnson once again, as the game plan is expected to revolve around quick passes to avoid the Bears’ pass rush. That could translate into solid volume for Johnson, but the overall ceiling of this offense remains capped with Dalton’s conservative style.
Chicago’s defense has looked like one of the league's top pass-defending units through the early part of the season. Ranking in the top 10 in both completion percentage and yards allowed, the Bears have consistently limited opposing offenses, holding them to under 225 passing yards in three of their four games. They've also allowed only two passing touchdowns while snagging five interceptions. Key to Chicago’s success is their elite boundary coverage, led by cornerback Jaylon Johnson, who is emerging as one of the premier shutdown corners in the league. Johnson, a second-team All-Pro last year, looks poised to reach even higher accolades this season. He was instrumental in bottling up Indianapolis’ Michael Pittman Jr in Week 3, and he’s expected to make life difficult for Carolina’s wideouts this week. Alongside Johnson, safeties Kevin Byard III and Jaquan Brisker have been excellent in coverage and should further stifle Dalton's limited deep passing game. As a result, Dalton and the Panthers could be in for a low-upside day through the air.
Dallas at Pittsburgh
The Cowboys are dealing with significant offensive challenges, particularly at the receiver position and along the offensive line. Dak Prescott, who has been inconsistent this season, currently ranks 23rd in completion percentage and 19th in yards per attempt, struggling to produce big plays for the team. The Cowboys heavily rely on CeeDee Lamb, but even he has yet to have a breakout performance, failing to surpass 100 receiving yards in any game this season and seeing only a modest 22% target share. The departure of Brandin Cooks due to a knee infection has only exacerbated the situation, placing more pressure on Jalen Tolbert, who, despite showing potential, hasn’t been a major contributor. Tight end Jake Ferguson is a steady option, but overall, the Cowboys lack the firepower to consistently move the ball through the air. The offensive line is a work in progress, particularly with the loss of veteran left tackle Tyron Smith. Rookie Tyler Guyton is being asked to step into that role, and rookie center Cooper Beebe is transitioning from guard, leaving Prescott with inconsistent protection. The injuries and new faces on the line have significantly impacted Prescott’s ability to find a rhythm, leading to struggles in generating offense.
The Pittsburgh defense, in contrast, is performing at a high level. They’re anchored by one of the league’s best pass rushers in T.J. Watt, who leads a unit that ranks fifth in quarterback knockdowns. Alongside Cameron Heyward, Watt and the Steelers' defense have been creating chaos up front, which has translated into limiting opponents’ passing games. Pittsburgh’s secondary, featuring a rising star in Joey Porter Jr. and the always-dangerous Minkah Fitzpatrick, has been instrumental in shutting down wideouts. Drake London and Courtland Sutton were effectively neutralized by this defense earlier in the season, underscoring how difficult it is for opposing quarterbacks to push the ball downfield against this unit.
Tampa Bay at Atlanta
The Buccaneers are seeing a resurgence from Baker Mayfield, who was once considered a bust after bouncing around the league. Through four games, Mayfield has been productive, sitting 7th in passing yards per game (246 yards) and 5th in touchdown rate. However, it's important to acknowledge that much of his success has come against weaker pass defenses, such as the Commanders, Lions, and Eagles. When facing stronger competition, such as the Denver Broncos, Mayfield’s efficiency dropped dramatically, as he struggled under pressure, averaging just 4.9 yards per attempt in a blowout loss. While he still possesses mobility and playmaking ability, Mayfield remains prone to sacks and head-scratching throws when pressured, making him a volatile fantasy option. Mike Evans has been seeing a decreased share of the targets, commanding just 23% of team targets so far this season. If Evans doesn’t suit up this weekend due to a leg injury, it will be a major blow to Tampa Bay’s deep passing game. Chris Godwin, primarily a slot receiver, is reliable, but without Evans, the Buccaneers will likely struggle to move the ball downfield. Overall, while Mayfield offers some potential in terms of volume, this matchup against Atlanta’s defense appears less than favorable.
The Falcons have faced elite quarterbacks like Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes II, and Derek Carr, allowing just 213 yards per game on average and only 6.1 yards per attempt. This points to a successful retooling of their defense, which now features elite coverage from safety Jessie Bates III and cornerback A.J. Terrell Jr. This season, they’ve added veteran safety Justin Simmons, creating a dangerous secondary that baits quarterbacks into poor throws. Last week, for instance, the Falcons contained Derek Carr, limiting him to short passes that resulted in minimal yardage after the catch. Additionally, after struggling earlier in his career, Mike Hughes has emerged as a key contributor in their defense. Now, he has found his place in Atlanta’s defense, playing 75% of defensive snaps and providing solid coverage. Given how the Falcons’ defense has performed so far, it’s hard to imagine Mayfield finding success against this secondary.
Minnesota vs NY Jets
At the NFL's quarter mark, Sam Darnold has surprisingly snuck into the top 10 for MVP odds, though it’s been more about efficiency than flashy fantasy stats. He ranks second in the league in yards per throw and first in touchdown rate, showing his ability to capitalize on opportunities. However, Darnold’s pass volume is low, ranking only 22nd in attempts, limiting his production. Despite that, the Vikings have leaned heavily on Darnold’s smart play and efficiency to stay competitive, although he has yet to be asked to carry the team in a shootout. Even his top receiver, Justin Jefferson, hasn’t put up monster numbers yet, with just one 90+ yard game through the first four weeks. The offense has mainly thrived through a balanced game plan, and Darnold hasn't had to operate under too much pressure. There are signs that the offense may face challenges if Darnold is forced to take on a bigger load. The offensive line, ranked 19th in pass-blocking by Footballguys’ Matt Bitonti, has allowed Darnold to be hurried 17 times, the second-most in the NFL. This week, the Jets’ diverse and aggressive pass rush could exploit any weaknesses. They’ve been highly effective at disrupting quarterbacks, ranking in the top 10 in both pressure and sack rate.
The Jets' defense remains their strength despite offensive struggles led by a not-yet-fully-recovered Aaron Rodgers. Second-year edge rusher Will McDonald IV has been dominant with 8 quarterback hits and 5 sacks already, leading a pass rush that can disrupt from multiple angles. Their elite secondary, featuring cornerback Sauce Gardner, has also excelled at shutting down opposing wide receivers. Even with Gardner struggling to start the season, the secondary has kept top receivers like Deebo Samuel Sr., Brandon Aiyuk, and DeAndre Hopkins in check, allowing just 6 yards per target on average. Michael Carter II, an elite slot cornerback, will also make it difficult for Darnold to rely on quick slot throws, a key component of his success. Though the Jets’ defense isn’t unbeatable, they present the toughest challenge Darnold has faced thus far this season.
