Go here for this week's Rushing Matchups.
Top 5 Passing Matchups
Chicago vs LA Rams
Caleb Williams' Week 3 performance could be seen as his breakout game, despite the Bears' loss and his three turnovers. Williams finally showcased his ceiling as a passer, providing a glimpse of his potential despite working behind one of the league’s weakest offensive lines and a struggling running game led by D’Andre Swift, who has averaged a dismal 1.8 yards per rush. The silver lining for Williams is that these struggles afford him more opportunities to shine through the air, as the Bears’ best path to success clearly lies in his connection with his top-tier weapons. Against the Colts, Williams spread the ball effectively, with primary targets D.J. Moore, Rome Odunze, and Cole Kmet receiving 32 of the team's 48 targets. This is a crucial shift from Williams’ earlier struggles, which involved relying too heavily on underperforming reserves like DeAndre Carter and Gerald Everett. With Keenan Allen expected back in action, there’s a significant ceiling for the offense if Williams can maintain this level of play. However, his ability to sustain this performance will be the key to determining whether Week 3 was truly a breakout or just a flash in the pan.
The Rams' pass defense, once one of the most formidable units in the league, has regressed significantly in 2024, currently ranking 28th against the pass. They’ve allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 72% of their throws at an average of 9.8 yards per attempt, yielding seven touchdowns across three games. In the season opener, Detroit's Jameson Williams made plays at all levels of the field, even beating veteran cornerback Tre’Davious White with a double move for a long touchdown. Kyler Murray and Marvin Harrison Jr.. followed suit in Week 2, exploiting the Rams' secondary with several big downfield plays. The struggles continued last week when 49ers' backup Jauan Jennings caught 11 of 12 targets for 175 yards and three touchdowns, easily the best performance of his career. The Rams' secondary, particularly Tre’Davious White, appears to be a shell of its former self, struggling to provide consistent coverage or downfield support. Safeties Kamren Curl, Kamren Kitchens, and Quentin Lake have all taken turns giving up big plays, and the lack of a strong pass rush following Aaron Donald's retirement has forced the Rams into frequent blitzes, often exposing their coverage vulnerabilities.
Arizona vs Washington
Kyler Murray continues to show growth as a quarterback, but he’s still not a finished product. Inconsistencies remain, as seen in last week’s loss to Detroit, where he had moments of brilliance mixed with lapses in execution. However, Murray’s development as a passer is evident, and he's been particularly impressive in getting the ball downfield, ranking ninth in air yards per completion. The standout aspect of his game has been his connection with prized rookie Marvin Harrison Jr.., which is developing into one of the league’s most potent quarterback-receiver tandems. Over the past two weeks, Murray has targeted Harrison on 35% of his passes, throwing his way 19 times out of 55 total attempts. Harrison has responded in spectacular fashion, racking up 194 yards and three touchdowns on nine receptions during that span. Despite the Lions’ best efforts to contain him with double coverage, Harrison managed to score and repeatedly beat first-round cornerback Terrion Arnold. His dynamic play even forced the defense into situations where they could have been flagged for pass interference multiple times. Offensive coordinator Drew Letzing has been adept at scheming Harrison open, and Murray has consistently fed him the ball. With tight end Trey McBride questionable due to a concussion, Harrison’s target share could climb even higher, making his ceiling virtually limitless in this matchup.
The Washington Commanders are in a rebuilding phase, primarily focusing on the offensive side of the ball, but their pass defense remains a significant liability. Ranked among the league’s worst, the Commanders have been a fantasy-friendly matchup for opposing quarterbacks. Over the first three weeks, Baker Mayfield and Joe Burrow combined to complete 78% of their passes against Washington, throwing for seven touchdowns. Even Daniel Jones managed a respectable outing against this struggling secondary. Washington’s once-formidable defensive line has been largely dismantled, leaving behind a unit that has struggled to pressure quarterbacks, ranking 30th in sack rate so far this season. This lack of a pass rush places tremendous pressure on an inexperienced secondary, including rookie cornerback Mike Sainristil, who has been exposed in coverage. Slot corner Benjamin St-Juste continues to struggle as one of the league’s weakest interior defenders, while safety Jeremy Chinn, a key offseason addition, is more effective near the line of scrimmage than in deep coverage. With such vulnerabilities, Kyler Murray and Marvin Harrison Jr.. are primed to exploit this matchup, making it one of the most favorable pairings of Week 4. There’s a chance starting cornerback Emmanuel Forbes Jr. returns this week, but that looks like subtraction by addition
Washington at Arizona
Jayden Daniels has emerged as one of the most exciting rookie quarterbacks in 2024. He plays with a fearless, almost reckless style, and while he’s still raw in some aspects of his game, his ability to make plays that few others can is already setting him apart. In Week 3’s thrilling win over the Bengals, Daniels showed why he could be something special, even if inconsistent at times. He completed 21 of 23 passes, including a stunning 27-yard game-winning touchdown to Terry McLaurin. The play was a testament to his instinct and arm talent, as he threw a perfectly placed pass while heaving off his back foot against tight coverage. Daniels’ playmaking mentality keeps him always searching for the big play, and in Week 3, he took more downfield shots than ever. With a legitimate No. 1 wide receiver in McLaurin, Daniels has a reliable target who can elevate his game even further as the young quarterback continues to push the ball downfield. The short-term question remains around the distribution of Austin Ekeler’s targets, but rookie slot receiver Luke McCaffrey could be the beneficiary. McCaffrey has run 20 or more routes in each game and caught all three of his targets last week for 44 yards in a game script that leaned heavily on the run.
The Arizona Cardinals’ pass defense has yet to be truly tested in 2024, facing just 24.3 pass attempts per game. Opponents have completed 75% of their passes against this unit, and only the Rams have allowed more yards per attempt. The Cardinals have shown vulnerability against upper-tier receivers, as seen last week when Detroit’s Amon-Ra St. Brown tallied 7 catches for 75 yards and a touchdown. His hook-and-ladder play with Jahmyr Gibbs highlighted the Cardinals’ defensive flaws, as they often leave their secondary exposed in one-on-one situations. Sean Murphy-Bunting, the Cardinals’ top cornerback, lacks the shutdown ability needed to contain top receivers consistently, and slot corner Garrett Williams is exploitable on shorter routes. The lack of safety support further compounds these issues, making the Cardinals susceptible to big plays. As Jayden Daniels grows more comfortable and confident, he’s well-positioned to exploit all levels of this defense, setting the stage for another standout performance in Week 4.
Buffalo at Baltimore
The Buffalo Bills are not leaning heavily on Josh Allen in the passing game this season. He has thrown just 23, 19, and 30 passes in his first three games, but despite the lower volume, Allen is thriving in this more efficient, streamlined offense. He currently leads the NFL in key metrics like QBR, adjusted yards per throw, and sack rate, with seven touchdowns and no interceptions. Instead of forcing deep balls to big-play threats like Stefon Diggs or Gabe Davis, Allen has adapted his game, taking advantage of opportunities when they present themselves, much like Patrick Mahomes II has done in recent years. Allen’s top target has been slot specialist Khalil Shakir, who has drawn 20% of the team’s targets. Shakir has been incredibly efficient, catching all 14 of his targets so far and scoring twice. At some point, the Bills are likely to get tight end Dalton Kincaid more involved in the offense despite being relatively quiet so far with just eight catches.
The Baltimore Ravens’ pass defense has not looked like the dominant unit of past seasons. While some of their struggles can be attributed to a tough early schedule, including matchups against Patrick Mahomes II and Dak Prescott, they have also allowed Gardner Minshew II to post an efficient performance in a comeback win. Number 1 receivers like Rashee Rice and Davante Adams have had big games against this secondary, and the unit has shown significant vulnerability. Marlon Humphrey has played well, but he can’t cover the entire field. First-round rookie Nate Wiggins is still finding his footing, and All-Pro safety Kyle Hamilton has struggled, notably allowing a long touchdown in Week 1 and making more errors in subsequent games. The Ravens are also missing Arthur Maulet, their slot corner, who has yet to play this season, leaving the middle of the field exposed. Tight ends have also taken advantage of these lapses, with Brock Bowers and Jake Ferguson both posting big games. As the Ravens’ defense continues to sort through positioning and communication issues, Josh Allen and his efficient, adaptable approach could be set up for another strong performance, particularly with Shakir and Kincaid working against a soft middle.
Houston vs Jacksonville
C.J. Stroud has started the 2024 season with solid, if not spectacular, performances. Coming off one of the greatest rookie quarterback seasons in NFL history, the bar was understandably high. Through three games, Stroud has led the Texans to a 2-1 record, averaging 7.2 yards per throw and posting four touchdowns to two interceptions. While this mirrors his start to the 2023 season, Stroud's performances have varied with the quality of his protection. Despite playing behind a Houston offensive line that is generally regarded as solid, he has already been sacked 11 times on 110 dropbacks, suggesting the line's performance hasn't lived up to its potential so far. Stroud has demonstrated the ability to make the most of his weapons, with a strong connection evident between him and wide receiver Nico Collins, who recorded eight catches for 135 yards and a touchdown against the Bears. Collins, who has emerged as the top receiver, continues to be a reliable target. Meanwhile, Stefon Diggs appears to have lost some of his explosiveness, and Tank Dell, who has been relatively quiet with just 17 targets through three games, is poised for a breakout game. If Dell suits up on Sunday despite rib and hand injuries, he projects well against an underperforming Jaguars secondary. If he can’t go, Diggs and Collins are expected to see the bulk of the targets.
Jacksonville's pass defense, which was already modest in 2023, has regressed significantly this season. They rank among the bottom five teams in net yardage allowed per throw and are one of just five teams without an interception so far. The absence of top cornerback Tyson Campbell, who is on injured reserve, further complicates matters, as does the potential absence of impressive rookie Jarrian Jones due to a shoulder injury. Montaric Brown is being stretched as an every-down player in their absence, and safeties Andre Cisco and Antonio Johnson have been more effective in run support than in pass coverage. The Jaguars’ pass defense issues were on full display in Week 2 against the Bills when Josh Allen picked apart their secondary, completing 23 of 30 passes for 263 yards and four touchdowns before exiting early. Buffalo’s slot receiver Khalil Shakir caught all six of his targets for 72 yards, while rookie Keon Coleman beat Brown and the lack of safety help for an easy touchdown. The Jaguars’ issues are compounded by a pass rush that has fallen to 24th in sack rate, leaving their cornerbacks vulnerable on deep plays. For Stroud and the Texans, this matchup offers an ideal opportunity to exploit a struggling defense, provided they can keep pressure from Josh Hines-Allen and the Jaguars’ pass rush at bay.
Bottom 5 Passing Matchups
LA Rams at Chicago
The Rams' passing game is currently limited by injuries, making it a challenging option for fantasy managers. With Puka Nacua on IR and Cooper Kupp still sidelined, Matthew Stafford finds himself relying on a depleted receiving corps. While Stafford remains an elite passer with the ability to create big plays—highlighted by his impressive 50-yard strike to Tutu Atwell and a crucial pass interference call in Week 3—those moments are hard to project consistently, given the current personnel. Last week, Stafford threw just 26 times for 221 yards and one touchdown, and he even opted for a late touchdown run by Kyren Williams instead of targeting a quick pass, showing how much the absence of his top targets affects the offense's approach. Currently, Stafford's primary targets are Tutu Atwell, Demarcus Robinson, and tight end Colby Parkinson. However, these players combined for just 8 catches on 14 targets last week and lack the volume or touchdown potential to offer reliable fantasy upside. Until Kupp or Nacua returns, Stafford's fantasy outlook remains limited, and the rest of the Rams’ receiving options are tough to trust.
The Bears’ defense, on the other hand, has been a significant bright spot, thanks to a series of impactful moves. Since last November, they've bolstered their roster with the trade of edge rusher Montez Sweat, re-signed rising star cornerback Jaylon Johnson, and brought in veteran safety Kevin Byard III to solidify the secondary. Under new coordinator Eric Washington, the Bears’ defense ranks third in pressure rate, seventh in net yardage allowed, and fourth in touchdowns given up through three weeks. Johnson and Tyrique Stevenson frequently swap sides of the field but do not play a true shadow cornerback role, making their matchups harder to predict. This Bears defense has proven to be effective against opposing passing games, and with Stafford's current lack of weapons, it’s not the ideal scenario for a fantasy breakout. The Rams' passing game could only muster modest production against a strong Chicago secondary, and without reliable targets like Kupp or Nacua, Stafford and his receivers may continue to struggle to generate significant fantasy value.
Denver at NY Jets
Coach Sean Payton has seen some progress from rookie quarterback Bo Nix, who managed a controlled and efficient performance in Week 3, completing 25 of 36 passes. However, Payton’s approach remains highly conservative, favoring low-risk plays and using short passes as an extension of the running game. Despite Nix showing a willingness to throw downfield (12th in air yards attempted), his efficiency remains low (26th in air yards completed). As a result, Nix’s output has been modest, with yardage totals of 138, 246, and 216 through three games, and he’s still searching for his first touchdown pass. Wide receiver Courtland Sutton leads the team with a 25% target share but has turned his 27 targets into just 12 catches for 132 yards without a score. Sutton’s lack of red zone involvement (only one target inside the 10-yard line) further limits his ceiling, and the rest of the receiving corps, including Josh Reynolds and Lil’Jordan Humphrey, hasn’t shown much upside. Overall, the Broncos’ passing attack lacks the explosiveness needed to generate significant fantasy value, and Payton’s current strategy appears to be built around a controlled, run-first offense that doesn’t set up Nix or his receivers for big numbers anytime soon.
The Jets’ defense continues to be the backbone of their team, especially their pass defense, which has dominated in recent weeks. They’ve had favorable matchups against inexperienced quarterbacks like Will Levis and Jacoby Brissett but have proven their capability to disrupt opposing offenses. The Jets’ defensive front, led by players like Sauce Gardner and a deep rotation of pass rushers, generated 17 pressures and seven sacks in Week 3 against New England, even without key edge rusher Jermaine Johnson. Gardner has not been at an All-Pro level thus far in 2024 but still commands respect as one of the league’s premier cornerbacks, effectively shutting down the left side of the field. Opposing offenses rarely test him, which could spell trouble for the Broncos’ top wideout, Courtland Sutton, who has struggled to make an impact downfield. The Jets’ slot coverage, anchored by Michael Carter II, remains a tough obstacle as well, making it hard to envision Nix and the Broncos finding much success through the air. New England’s Demario Douglas found limited success on quick passes last week, and that might be the most realistic expectation for Nix against this tenacious Jets pass defense.
Indianapolis vs Pittsburgh
Anthony Richardson’s rookie season has been a rollercoaster, showcasing his incredible physical tools but also highlighting just how much development he still needs as a passer. Richardson’s big-play ability is undeniable, as he possesses a rare combination of arm strength and athleticism, allowing him to extend plays and create scoring opportunities out of seemingly nothing. However, he remains a work in progress in the pocket, often struggling with decision-making and ball placement. This week’s matchup presents a significant challenge, as the Steelers are adept at containing quarterbacks who thrive on deep passes and broken plays. Richardson’s best fantasy value lies in his rushing ability and occasional big throws, but consistently connecting on downfield passes will be difficult against this defense. Michael Pittman Jr, Richardson’s top target, has seen a heavy share of targets (29%) but has yet to produce meaningful yardage, totaling just 88 yards over three games at a meager 4.4 yards per target. The Steelers’ defense is particularly adept at limiting deep plays, allowing only one completion of 30+ yards through three games. This trend will make it tough for Richardson and Pittman to find a rhythm, especially given the Steelers’ reputation for stifling young, raw quarterbacks. If Richardson is to have any success, it will likely come from short, efficient throws that keep the chains moving rather than explosive downfield plays.
The Steelers’ defense is designed to dominate games with minimal offensive production, as evidenced by their track record of limiting opponents to low yardage. T.J. Watt, a perennial Defensive Player of the Year candidate, anchors a pass rush that ranks third in hurry rate and seventh in sack rate, consistently collapsing the pocket and forcing quarterbacks into uncomfortable situations. This aggressive approach disrupts offensive game plans, making it difficult for teams to establish their downfield passing games. The Steelers have allowed only one 300-yard passer in their last 17 matchups, and that came in a garbage-time scenario. Pittsburgh’s secondary complements their pass rush with rising stars like Joey Porter Jr. and established talents like Minkah Fitzpatrick, whose ball-hawking skills make him a constant threat in coverage. Donte Jackson has also adapted well in his first year with the Steelers, providing strong support opposite Porter. Together, this unit has all but erased opposing No. 1 receivers, shutting down players like Drake London and Courtland Sutton in recent matchups. The combination of relentless pressure and disciplined coverage will make life extremely difficult for Richardson and the Colts’ passing attack, emphasizing the need for quick throws and ball security to avoid turnovers.
NY Jets vs Denver
Aaron Rodgers showed significant improvement in Week 3, leading the Jets to a convincing win over the Patriots by throwing for 281 yards and two touchdowns. This performance marked a notable step forward in his comeback season, displaying his trademark poise and accuracy. However, the upcoming matchup presents a more formidable challenge. The pace of play will likely increase, and the Jets will face a stiffer defense, requiring more from Rodgers and his supporting cast. A key area needing improvement is Rodgers’ connection with top receiver Garrett Wilson, who has caught just 15 of his 26 targets this season for a modest 10.0 yards per catch. The offense’s reliance on short, conservative throws is evident, with 58 of Rodgers’ 66 remaining targets going to running backs, tight ends, and Allen Lazard. Mike Williams’ increasing involvement, with his routes jumping from 4 to 20 over the last two games, offers a potential downfield threat, but the overall attack remains cautious. Rodgers’ growing comfort and trust in his body and his receivers will be crucial for unlocking higher upside in this offense.
The Broncos’ defense, however, is well-prepared to make things difficult for Rodgers and the Jets. Denver’s defensive resurgence has been a key factor in their early season success, including their impressive Week 3 victory over the Buccaneers. The Broncos’ defense was relentless, sacking Baker Mayfield seven times and holding Tampa Bay’s offense to just 163 passing yards. Even Mayfield’s lone touchdown pass was contested heavily, illustrating the tight coverage and disruptive pass rush Denver can bring. This defense is also one of the few to have contained Geno Smith and the Seahawks’ high-powered passing game, emphasizing their ability to impact top-tier offenses. Denver’s pass rush, which ranks fifth in pressure rate and second in knockdown rate, has been a driving force, making life difficult for opposing quarterbacks. Cornerback Patrick Surtain II has returned to form after a rough start to the season, showcasing his shutdown capabilities against elite receivers like Mike Evans, whom he limited to just one catch on 24 routes in their last matchup. If Surtain continues to play at this high level, it could spell trouble for Garrett Wilson, who has yet to find his rhythm with Rodgers. The Broncos’ secondary, with its depth and talent, further complicates matters for the Jets, as few holes exist for secondary receivers to exploit. This defense, built on pressure and strong coverage, presents a significant challenge for a Jets offense that is still finding its footing.
New Orleans at Atlanta
Derek Carr and the Saints’ offense generated significant buzz in the NFC South during the first two weeks of the season, with Carr showing off an unexpected big-play capability. Carr completed 30 of his 39 passes at an impressive 11.4 yards per attempt, throwing five touchdowns against just one interception. His ability to push the ball downfield stood out, especially given his longstanding reputation as a conservative, game-managing quarterback. However, the Saints’ offensive success came to a screeching halt in Week 3 against the Eagles, whose defense had looked vulnerable in previous games. Carr’s struggles under pressure were evident, with Eagles’ C.J. Gardner-Johnson dismissing the Saints as “pretenders,” pointing specifically to Carr’s limitations. The loss of Pro Bowl center Erik McCoy, an anchor of the Saints’ offensive line, complicates matters further, leaving Carr even more vulnerable to pressure, particularly from teams like the Falcons who excel at disrupting offensive rhythm with stunts and blitzes.
The Falcons’ revamped pass defense has been a revelation in 2024, quickly establishing itself as one of the league’s most formidable units. In back-to-back weeks, the Falcons have stifled two of the NFL’s premier quarterbacks, Jalen Hurts and Patrick Mahomes II, holding them to a combined 5.6 yards per attempt. Cornerback A.J. Terrell Jr. continues to ascend toward elite status, and the addition of Mike Hughes has provided solid support in the secondary. The Falcons’ safety duo of Jessie Bates III and Justin Simmons has also been a game-changer, providing both physicality and ball-hawking skills that make it difficult for offenses to generate yards after the catch. This was on full display when the Falcons neutralized speedster Xavier Worthy, holding him to just 30 yards on seven touches, and stifled Travis Kelce, preventing the star tight end from making any significant impact. While not flawless, Terrell still takes aggressive risks that occasionally backfire, as seen in the opener against George Pickens—the Falcons’ defense is a disruptive force. Their ability to shut down deep passes and close quickly on short throws forces offenses into uncomfortable situations. For Carr and the Saints, who have been trying to expand their downfield passing attack this season, the Falcons’ swarming defense could prove too challenging to navigate effectively, especially without the stabilizing presence of McCoy in the middle of the line. The matchup sets up as a significant test for Carr, whose efficiency drops markedly under pressure, making this an uphill battle for New Orleans’ passing game.
