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Top 5 Passing Matchups
Tampa Bay vs Washington
Baker Mayfield is coming off of a career-saving year with Tampa Bay. After a strong start to his career and then bouncing around the league to Carolina and Los Angeles, Baker seemed to find a home in Tampa Bay, returning to the early days of his time in Cleveland. Mayfield threw for a career-high in both yards with 4,066 and touchdowns with 28. What is even more impressive for Baker is that he lowered his interception rate from a 2.8% career average down to 1.8%. Mayfield has had to deal with constant turnover throughout his career, and this year is no different. Liam Coen was named the offensive coordinator this spring after Dave Canales was named the Carolina Panthers head coach. Coen comes from the Sean McVay coaching tree and eventually became their offensive coordinator in 2022 after a year coaching Will Levis in college before leaving to go back to Kentucky as their offensive coordinator last season. The Buccaneers brought back nearly the entire offense outside of the center position as Ryan Jensen retired. The team took Graham Barton out of Duke and gave Mayfield a speed option in Jaelen McMillan by using a third-round pick on the receiver from Washington. This is an offense that is primarily going to run through Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, both players topped 1,000 yards while Cade Otton and Rachaad White were the next two leaders in receiving yards. Both should have a role in this passing game but expect both Evans and Godwin to see the primary bulk of the work once again.
Washington's defense was amongst the league's worst last season. They allowed the most fantasy points to the quarterback position in 2023 while allowing 272 passing yards per game, which was the worst in the NFL. While Dan Quinn is amongst the best defensive coaches in the NFL, the team let their best corner depart this offseason as Kendall Fuller went to Miami while safety Kamren Curl left for the Rams. The Commanders will largely rely on second-year players Emmanuel Forbes and Benjamin St-Juste, who they spent first and third-round picks on in the 2023 draft. Both players struggled immensely last season. Washington did add Mike Sainristil, who is expected to start in the slot this year, and Mike Davis, who will likely see playing time competing with Forbes for the starting outside position. A big question for the Commanders will be how they can replace the loss of Montez Sweat and Chase Young, who were traded mid-season last year. Washington brought in Clelin Ferrell, who hasn't had more than 4.5 sacks in his five seasons, while they also brought in Dorance Armstrong from Dallas. Armstrong is coming off of two strong seasons with 7.5 and 8.5 sacks but will now be in a much larger role compared to being an afterthought for offensive lines who had to focus on Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence.
Buffalo vs Arizona
Josh Allen and the Bills are going through a little bit of a transitional period. They're attempting to mimic the build of the Chiefs in almost every way from a roster construction standpoint as they traded Stefon Diggs this offseason and allowed Gabe Davis to sign with Jacksonville. They're taking the Kansas City approach of having a committee of wide receivers while instead focusing on the tight end as a focal point of the offense. That's what the Bills hope that they have with Dalton Kincaid the second-year former first-round pick out of Utah. Kincaid had a good, but not great, rookie season, catching 73 passes for just 673 yards, which leaves a significant number of yards for the Bills to replace as they lost both Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis. This leaves Khalil Shakir as the only returning receiver with over 150 receiving yards as the team brought in rookie Keon Coleman and veteran slot receiver Curtis Samuel.
The Cardinals are expected to have one of the worst secondaries in the NFL this season. Last season, this unit allowed just 225 passing yards per game but allowed the third most passing touchdowns on the season. They rebuilt their secondary compared to last year as Marco Wilson went to New England and Antonio Hamilton left for Atlanta. The Cardinals invested heavily in Sean Murphy-Bunting, signing him to a three-year $25M deal. Murphy-Bunting will be heavily relied upon alongside veteran Budda Baker, as the rest of the secondary is extremely inexperienced. The Cardinals will rely heavily on second-round rookie Max Melton, third-round rookie Elijah Jones, and second-year slot corner Garrett Williams, who played in just nine games last season. The Cardinals' pass rush is unlikely to help them this season as they had the third-fewest sacks in the NFL last season and will be relying on Zaven Collins and second-year sixth-round pick Dante Stills. Both had just 3.5 sacks each last season. If they're unable to get pressure, this could make for a long season for the Cardinals, especially in Week 1 against a quarterback like Josh Allen, who, given time, can beat just about any defense.
Green Bay at Philadelphia
Jordan Love's first year as a starter could not have gone more perfectly. He quickly emerged as a potential star in the league, finishing with 4,159 yards and throwing for 32 touchdowns. This is a young offense that is proud that they do not have a wide receiver, with Matt LaFleur going as far as stating that he wants to “vomit” when talking about number one receivers. This is a team that had four wide receivers with 400 yards or more, with no receiver having more than 800 yards, as Jayden Reed led the team with 793 on the season. The Packers should see an upgrade at the running back position as Josh Jacobs is a tremendous receiving back, replacing Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon as Dillon was placed on IR this week. Expect LaFleur and the Packers to be a fantasy headache each week with no receivers separating themselves but being extremely productive each week, taking advantage of the matchups and defensive schemes with Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, Jayden Reed, and Dontayvion Wicks. The Packers also can turn to Luke Musgrave in his second season, who showed promise at times while dealing with injuries throughout the year, playing in just 11 games.
The Eagles secondary comes into the 2024 season with significant questions. Last season, Philadelphia allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, the fourth-most passing yards per game at 268, and allowed 300-yard passing games to 8 teams. While the Eagles are trying to rebuild this roster by drafting Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean with their first two picks of the 2024 NFL Draft, there are still some major questions heading into this season. The team lost their best pass defender, Kevin Byard III, in free agency as the safety signed a massive deal with the Bears this offseason. The Eagles will rely heavily on 33-year-old Darius Slay to be the backbone of this defense. Alongside Slay, Philadelphia hopes for a second-year improvement from Kelee Ringo, the team's fourth-round pick in the 2023 Draft, who was inconsistent in his rookie season. Alongside Ringo, the team also has Isaiah Rodgers who was suspended for the 2023 season for gambling. The Eagles did bring in Vic Fangio this offseason, which should provide some stability to the team as Fangio is the most experienced defensive coordinator in the NFL this season.
Minnesota at NY Giants
The Vikings' plans for the 2024 season took a significant hit when J.J. McCarthy was lost for the year with a torn meniscus. The Vikings were almost certainly looking towards Sam Darnold getting the first shot at the quarterback position to be able to develop McCarthy, but
There are a lot of questions heading into this season for the Giants, but one of the biggest is how their secondary will play with the departure of Xavier McKinney. The Giants did not have a great solution for the departure of McKinney, who signed a massive contract with Green Bay. They will replace him with Dane Belton who has struggled in his limited playing time over his first two seasons. Consistency is the key for the Giants this upcoming year, as at times last season, their secondary looked more than capable while, at other points, looking completely lost. At corner, this team is expecting some significant growth from Cor'Dale Flott, who beat out Adoree' Jackson, last year's starting cornerback. Flott is a third-year player moving from the nickel to the outside this season, as the team will rely on third-round rookie Dru Phillips in the slot. This team will need their pass rush to help their secondary, at least for the early parts of the season, as with so much inexperience and new positions, it will take time to see if this will work. The Giants invested heavily in their pass rush, signing Brian Burns to a massive 5-year $141 million contract this offseason. The Giants are relying on Burns to be able to take his career to another level after just 8 sacks in 2023 with Carolina. It should be much easier for him in New York as the Giants can create mismatch nightmares with Kayvon Thibodeaux, the former top 5 pick entering his second season, alongside Dexter Lawrence II, who is one of the best pressure defensive tackles in the NFL. With new defensive coordinator Shane Bowen, expect the Giants to potentially struggle early given all the changes within this team, but if they can figure it out, this could be one of those defenses that consistently rises through the rankings throughout the year.
LA Rams at Detroit
If it can stay fully healthy, the Rams head into the season with one of the more dangerous passing offenses. Last season, Cooper Kupp dealt with an injury for most of the season, which allowed for the emergence of Puka Nacua to show he is one of the league's best receivers, as the fifth-round rookie had 105 catches for 1,486 yards. The issue for the Rams this year is whether they can stay healthy. Puka Nacua is already nursing a knee injury, causing him to miss a significant portion of the preseason. The good news for the Rams is that Cooper Kupp appears to be healthy for the first time since early 2022 and can provide one of the best wide receiver duos in the NFL this season. If there's a concern for the Rams, it is the offensive line, particularly at the left tackle position, as Alaric Jackson has been suspended for two games, while both KT Leveston and Conor McDermott have been placed on IR. Meanwhile, right tackle Rob Havenstein is very questionable for this week with an ankle injury. Sean McVay is saying all the right things, with veteran backup Joe Noteboom expected to start at left tackle and second-year fifth-round draft pick Warren McLendon slotting in at right tackle.
Detroit's secondary was the team's major flaw last season, as they allowed 340 passing yards or more in five of their last six games, including the playoffs. This ultimately led to significant changes for Detroit, as they drafted Terrion Arnold in the first round this offseason and traded Carlton Davis for a significant contract. There remain questions, as Davis comes from Tampa Bay, where he struggled since signing a large contract after the 2022 season. The pass rush will be critical to help the secondary as it will likely take time to come together. The Lions have invested heavily in their defensive line, bringing in Marcus Davenport to play alongside Aiden Hutchinson and adding D.J. Reader to secure the middle of the defense. Reader is questionable for this game with a quad injury, but he was removed from the PUP list last week, indicating that if he does miss time, it will likely only be this week.
Bottom 5 Passing Matchups
Baltimore at Kansas City
The hiring of Todd Monken significantly improved the passing game of the Ravens last season. Lamar Jackson is coming off a career-high in passing yards, yards per attempt, and completion percentage. The Ravens could be a team with upside compared to their 2023 results, given that Mark Andrews only played in 10 games and another year of development for their two former first-round picks in Zay Flowers and Rashod Bateman. If there is a concern for the Ravens, it is the right side of their offensive line, as they're going to be relying on inexperienced players in 2nd-round rookie Roger Rosengarten and third-year former fourth-round pick Daniel Faalele, who has made just one career start for the Ravens.
While Kansas City's offense gets most of the credit for their dynasty-level success, the secondary was a primary reason they won the Super Bowl last season. Coming off a year where they allowed just 197 passing yards per game, this unit has had some turnover but still should have high expectations heading into the 2024 season. The Chiefs did lose L'Jarius Snead to Tennessee this offseason but have drafted extremely well as Trent McDuffie is coming off of a First Team All-Pro season, while Joshua Williams emerged as a solid contributor, allowing the Chiefs to have some comfort in letting Snead go to Tennessee. This team is built to stop the pass, realizing that they will frequently have the lead, and the pass rush of the Chiefs is amongst the league's best, as they had the second-most sacks in the NFL last season. They have a unique ability to create pressure up the middle, with Chris Jones making life extremely difficult for an offense that also uses a heavy blitzing Steve Spagnuolo defense that has George Karlaftis and Charles Omenihu rushing off the edge. Lamar Jackson and the Ravens should be in the Chiefs' recent memory as they faced them in the AFC Championship game which should help them be better prepared against a unique offense that can be difficult to prepare for. Andy Reid is widely regarded as the best coach in the NFL when given added time to prepare; this should make a difficult week for the Ravens in the opening game this season.
San Francisco vs NY Jets
Now that the Brandon Aiyuk saga is past the 49ers, they quickly pivoted to Trent Williams, signing him this week. Williams, who has been First Team All-Pro the past three seasons, looks questionable to play this week as the 36-year-old did not have any offseason this year. Not having Williams would be a significant loss to an offense with high expectations and star talent at each position. Last season, the 49ers had two 1,000-yard receivers, Aiyuk and George Kittle, while Deebo Samuel had 892 in just 15 games. Adding Christian McCaffrey out of the backfield gives the 49ers the most dynamic offense in the NFL. Without Williams, however, Jaylon Moore will get the start. Moore has started just seven games throughout his career, but if there's a team that can handle pressure through quick passing, it would be the 49ers, as they can be just as dangerous going lateral instead of vertical with Deebo Samuel and Christian McCaffrey on underneath passes.
The Jets secondary heads into this season as the premier secondary in the NFL, and all five starters return this year. Last season, the Jets allowed just 187 yards passing which was the third fewest in the NFL. Only Joe Flacco in Week 17 topped 300 yards as this was a unit that shut down Patrick Mahomes (203), Justin Herbert (136), C.J. Stroud (91), Tua Tagovailoa (224 and 243) and held the Giants' passing offense of Tyrod Taylor and Tommy DeVito to just 7 passing yards in Week 8 last year. Led by Sauce Gardner, the Jets also have two very strong cornerbacks in Michael Carter and D.J. Reed. The Jets get safety Chuck Clark back after he missed the entire 2023 season with a torn ACL in training camp, and he's expected to start alongside Tony Adams, who is also returning this season. This unit is designed to stop the pass, as the linebackers C.J. Moseley and Quincy Williams are tremendous coverage linebackers. Pass rush for the Jets could be an issue as they brought in Haason Reddick via trade this offseason, but he won't play this week, given an ongoing contract dispute with the team. The Jets can create pressure through the middle with Quinnen Williams and Javon Kinlaw, but whether the edge rushers in Jermaine Johnson, Will McDonald, and Michael Clemons can as well is a question.
Dallas at Cleveland
Dallas' offense is expected to be even more pass-heavy than it was in the 2023 season after the team let Tony Pollard depart this offseason while bringing in veterans Ezekiel Elliott and Dalvin Cook, who struggled last season. The Cowboys instead invested their cap space into re-signing CeeDee Lamb to a four-year $136 million contract. Lamb was arguably the league's best receiver last season, with 135 receptions for 1,749 yards and 12 touchdowns. This season, a key for the Cowboys will be whether they can get additional production from Jake Ferguson or Brandin Cooks. Ferguson, in his second year, had 761 yards and 5 touchdowns, while Cooks has had six 1,000-yard seasons throughout his career and has averaged just 678 yards over the last two seasons.
The Browns have arguably the best trio of cornerbacks in the NFL. While outside of Denzel Ward, they may not stand out on their own merits, cohesion makes this trio of Ward, Greg Newsome, and Martin Emerson so great. All three were drafted by Cleveland and have been in the system for three or more seasons with Emerson being the youngest of the group. Last season was the first in Jim Schwartz's system, and it paid off for Cleveland, who allowed just 185 passing yards last season. The Browns' pass rush, led by Myles Garrett and Za'Darius Smith, had the sixth-most sacks last season, as they had a sack on 9.2% of pass attempts. At safety, the Browns saw tremendous growth from Grant Delpit last season alongside the addition of Juan Thornhill, both of which are strong coverage safeties. If there is one concern for this team, it is the health of Denzel Ward, who suffered his fifth concussion throughout his seven-year career back on August 12. He has said he will be ready for Week 1. If he cannot play, this would be a significant downgrade for this defense as this defense is not particularly deep as they would need to replace him with 2023 fifth-round pick Cameron Mitchell.
Jacksonville at Miami
Jacksonville is undergoing some turnover this offseason, as the team had higher expectations after building a dynamic roster last season with Christian Kirk, Calvin Ridley, Evan Engram, and Zay Jones. Both Ridley and Jones left in the offseason, with the team bringing in deep threat Gabe Davis who is averaging 16.7 yards per catch over his four-year career. The team also drafted Brian Thomas Jr. in the first round of the 2024 draft. Thomas, another downfield threat, ran a 4.33 40-yard dash at the combine and averaged 18.0 yards per catch last season. Expect Engram to continue to play the possession role for this team as they look to stretch opposing defenses out with the downfield threats of their receivers. Engram caught 114 passes, 19 more than the next closest tight end for the 2023 season. Despite catching 114 passes, he averaged just 8.4 yards per catch. This is a big year for the Jaguars as they look to help Trevor Lawrence bounce after a disappointing 2023 season.
No team has improved their secondary this offseason more than the Miami Dolphins. This unit struggled in 2023, plagued by injury to Jalen Ramsey and underwhelming play from Xavien Howard, who the team released this offseason. One bright spot for Miami last season was Jevon Holland, one of the league's best coverage safeties as the 2021 second-round pick had a breakout season last year. Alongside Ramsey and Holland, the Dolphins brought in Kendall Fuller and veteran safeties Jordan Poyer and Marcus Maye. Poyer is the more relevant acquisition of the two, as he has been a mainstay for the Bills since 2017 and was awarded First Team All-Pro in 2021 and a Pro Bowl bid in 2022. Maye is an intriguing addition who has never really been able to stay healthy, averaging just 8 games played over the last three seasons. However, he is a depth piece that the Dolphins desperately needed. The Dolphins have as much star power in Ramsey, Holland, Poyer, and Fuller as any passing defense this season, but the big question for them will be in the slot. The Dolphins will rely on Kader Kohou again this season, but the undrafted third-year player had a strong rookie season but struggled at times last year. The Dolphins had to move him away from his natural slot position to the outside, given the ineffectiveness and injuries of other players. If he's able to bet back to the strong slot coverage that he had his rookie season, this is going to be one of the league's best secondaries. The Dolphins' defensive line is a unit that is a big question mark heading into this season. After having the third-most sacks last season, the team lost Christian Wilkins and Andrew Van Ginkel via free agency and will be without Bradley Chubb who was placed on the PUP list as he recovers from a torn ACL last season.
Carolina at New Orleans
There's not much to say about the Panthers other than they may have finally made the first smart move in the David Tepper ownership era by hiring Dave Canales. Canales, who spent most of his career as a Pete Carroll protégé, was the Tampa Bay offensive coordinator last season and was a big reason that Baker Mayfield had a significant bounce back to reset his career. Allowing Bryce Young to spend time with a coach who had to manage a quarterback with high talent but low expectations could be the perfect combination. Talent is still an issue on this Panthers offense. But they did make some offseason moves to try to build around Young by adding Diontae Johnson, who will provide a possession-receiving option, which should hopefully open up space for Jonathan Mingo, the team's second-round pick in the 2023 Draft.
Bryce Young draws about as difficult of a start as he can to the 2024 season, as this should once again be a very good New Orleans defense. The Saints struggled against the pass down the stretch of last season, but this was a unit that was amongst the league's best through the first 10 weeks of the season, allowing just 209 passing yards per game, which was 8th in the NFL, while no quarterback threw for over 270 yards and the team shut down C.J. Stroud (199) and Trevor Lawrence (204). The big question heading into this year is how Marshon Lattimore will play. When fully healthy, he has shown he can be one of the league's best cornerbacks, but the four-time Pro Bowler and former Defensive Rookie of the Year has played just 7 and 10 games over the last two seasons. Alongside Lattimore, the Saints have arguably the most underrated cornerback in the NFL in Paulson Adebo as the fourth-year player has quietly outperformed Lattimore over the last couple of seasons.
All of the Passing Matchups
