One of fantasy football's greatest conundrums is who to pick in a wide receiver room when there are two or even three worthy options. The Houston Texans currently have that scenario, with Nico Collins, Tank Dell, and the newly arrived Stefon Diggs, but Collins is the receiver you should choose.

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Fresh off the fabled third-year breakout, Collins is all set to truly complete his ascent into the WR1 that we, as fantasy football players, always assumed was a possibility when he was drafted into the NFL in 2021. He had meager statistics in his first two seasons, but quarterback C.J. Stroud's arrival, coupled with new offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik's offensive scheme, made things click in the perfect manner.

The question here isn't whether Collins is good enough or not to lead this receiving corps -- that's something we already know the answer is yes to. The real question is this: can he pay off his ADP this season, even with Diggs and Dell garnering their target share as well?

Nico Collins' Profile

Collins entered the NFL in the 2022 NFL Draft out of Michigan, having been drafted in the second round, but his college production made him far from a sure thing and more of a projection. Our Matt Waldman had this to say about Collins' projected NFL role, from his Rookie Scouting Portfolio:

Rotational Starter: Executes at a starter level in a role playing to his strengths. On the cusp of a Contributor, which means starter production in a limited role and diminishing returns outside of that responsibility.

For the first couple of seasons, that held true for Collins, as he could not surpass 500 receiving yards in a season or 40 receptions. The talent he was playing with, notably at quarterback, was understandably an issue, but plenty questioned whether Collins could break out. He was talented enough to flash plenty of potential. But his speed was questionable at times, and he would struggle to earn separation.

That all changed in 2023 with the arrival of Slowik and Stroud. Slowik brought plenty of West Coast offense influence from his time spent with Kyle Shanahan in San Francisco, and Stroud got moving right away on his way to an Offensive Rookie of the Year award. That offensive output got passed down to Collins, and the results were fruitful: nearly 1,300 receiving yards and eight touchdowns.

Stefon Diggs' Arrival

Diggs had spent the last few years in the Buffalo Bills organization, where he was traded to in 2020. As the Bills continued to miss on converting their Super Bowl window, though, Diggs seemed to get frustrated, and his final season as a Bill saw his playtime dip considerably, from around 90% to some games in the 60s.

As a result, Diggs was traded to the Texans, along with multiple future draft picks, in April 2024 in exchange for a second-round pick in 2025. This trade immediately leapt the Texans from a mid-level wide receiver room into one of the NFL's best trios, and ensured that Stroud would have plenty of options to look at when throwing. You can check out our Dave Kluge's view on the Diggs trade here.

Diggs' 2023 season posited a major question for the generational but also mercurial wideout: Was 2023 just a down year due to Diggs' perceived frustration, or was there a true decline in play?

He experienced a drop in efficiency, almost across the board. His Yards per Route Run decreased from 2.87 in 2022 to 2.03, his Target Separation from 2.04 to 1.65, and his Fantasy Point per Target from 2.07 to 1.71. He also only saw two total redzone touches across the Bills' final eight games.

Can Collins Keep It Going?

Collins' 2023 season was a masterclass in projection meets opportunity meets talent. Adding Stroud to the offense elevated seemingly every player on the offensive side of the ball, and Collins' numbers were amazing.

• 3.24 Yards per Route Run (2nd in NFL)
• 6.9 Yards after Contact/Catch (5th)
• 27% Targets per Route Run (5th)
• +93.4 Expected Points Added (5th)
• 2.39 Fantasy Points per Target (3rd)

There are plenty more, but you get the gist. Collins had an incredible season and got paid like it this offseason, with the Texans ponying up nearly $73 million on a three-year extension. It's WR1 money, and the young wide receiver definitely earned it. 

The question that follows: Where does Diggs fit into the landscape alongside Collins and Dell, who is recovering from a fractured fibula but is back to full health?

Let's dive into production with both Collins and Dell on the field to start. When both were healthy, and there were seven games last year when both played at least half of the offensive snaps, Dell was step-for-step with Collins. Both receivers finished as weekly WR1s twice in that span and tied Collins in total targets (52) over that period.

The Texans were missing a true outside receiver during this time frame, with Collins spending almost half of his snaps (48.9%) running out of the slot and Dell up at 65%. Diggs' arrival should make that interesting, considering he spent 36% of his snaps last season in the slot, the highest number of his career so far,  but his age might make a full-time move to the slot more sensible. He had almost as many fantasy points per 100 plays out of the slot as he did outside, and with Collins able to man the outside and Dell strong at beating press coverage already (68.2% success rate on his Reception Perception profile), Diggs could spend a lot of time in the slot.

If Diggs moves to the slot, Collins should be able to continue to handle the X-receiver role, as he did full-time for the first time in Slowik's offense last season. The Shanahan scheme is at its best when you have a true X outside who can beat press and man coverage at a high rate, and Collins achieved that plenty in 2023.

Nico was also one of the best Yards after Catch receivers last season. He ranked sixth in yards after the catch with 549, and his ability to turn on the jets and accelerate using his long speed after completing his route showed an elite factor.

Collins is a true alpha receiver. If the roles from last season hold, then I think he can continue his torrid run of production despite Diggs' arrival. The tweet below best describes where I am on this offense. I could go a little lower in the rankings for Diggs and a bit higher for Dell, but I think this is accurate.

If I had to give redraft tiers to each of the three Houston WRs post-Diggs trade:

Nico Collins: Tier 3 (WR10-WR16)

Stefon Diggs: Tier 4 (WR17-WR24)

Tank Dell: Tier 6 (WR30-WR36)

I think that Diggs definitely may have lost a step, but Collins' emergence pairs well with Diggs'…

— Sam Wagman (@swagman95) April 3, 2024

Nico Collins' Stats

Nico Collins 2024 Projections

Final Thoughts

At the end of the day, Nico Collins proved last year what we have always thought possible but weren't sure of before: he has elite tools and could be a WR1 in the right scheme. He's the type of player that, when you build a great system around him, as Bobby Slowik and the Texans have done, will excel in it and make you look great. The Texans have a real window for a Super Bowl now, and Collins can be the receiving face of this team. Don't look past him being a league winner again; he may make you regret it.

Follow @swagman95