Is This Real? is a weekly article focused on whether player performance is real and sustainable or should be expected to change going forward. Through the use of stats and analytics, the article will help decipher difficult situations around the league.
Is Cedric Tillman’s breakout real?
Cedric Tillman was in the DraftKings Millionaire Maker lineup this week, and his 38-yard touchdown reception in the closing minutes of Cleveland’s Week 8 win over Baltimore cashed several SGPs for yours truly.
Was this a profitable blip or something very real?
To start, Jameis Winston brought a level of competence to the Cleveland offense that has been rare in Cleveland’s Deshaun Watson era. In fact, the only other time there was legitimate competence at the quarterback position in Cleveland since Deshaun Watson returned from his suspension in 2022 was when Joe Flacco started for an injured Watson at the end of last season.
In the Watson era, there was little variance: Watson was consistently bad and dragged down his supporting cast. The change from Watson to Winston is not perfect. Winston is high variance. For example, in 2019, Winston led the league in passing yards (5109) and interceptions (30). Importantly for Cleveland, Winston’s variance includes actual highs, like a 334-yard 3-touchdown upset of the Baltimore Ravens.
This has a boosting impact to the entire offense.
The change to Winston was not the only difference for Tillman. Since the Amari Cooper trade to Buffalo, Tillman has seen a major spike in usage.
In weeks 1 through 6, Tillman ran a route on 29% of the team’s dropbacks and was only targeted on 6% of his routes. In the past two weeks, Tillman has run routes on 87% of the team’s dropbacks and been targeted on 23% of his routes. Since the Cooper trade, Tillman accounts for 24% of the team’s targets, which leads the team. His 87% route participation is the second highest among Cleveland’s receivers, behind only Jerry Jeudy. This participation and usage in the offense should only be more solidified after his week 8 breakout.
Verdict: The change from Watson to Winston came at the perfect time for Tillman. Tillman was a disappointment as a rookie and struggled through the first six weeks of the season. The trade of Cooper and Winston’s installation as the Cleveland quarterback has created a jump in volume and efficiency that could create top-36 production for the rest of the season.
Is Darnell Mooney a top-12 wide receiver?
On the season, Darnell Mooney ranks as WR23 with 13.8 PPG. Mooney’s season has been a tale of two halves. In week 1 through 4, Mooney ranked as the WR40 with 10.9 PPG in PPR scoring. Since week 5, Darnell Mooney ranks as the WR11 with 16.6 PPG.
The jump in the past four weeks is certainly volume-related: Mooney’s 157 routes in the past four weeks rank fourth at the wide receiver position behind only Darius Slayton, Garrett Wilson, and Jerry Jeudy.
This is not a new development, as Mooney has been a very high route volume player this season, running a route on 97% of his team’s dropbacks, the fourth-highest rate in the league among wide receivers.
This is a big increase for Mooney from his time in Chicago. From 2020 through 2023, Mooney's route participation in games he played fell between 78% and 93% of his Chicago’s dropbacks.
Mooney is also seeing a high rate of targets. From 2020 through 2023, Mooney had target rates of 18%, 22%, 19%, and 12%. On the season, Mooney has a target rate of 20%, which has been consistent throughout the season.
The jump in recent production can be attributed to touchdown variance. On the season, Mooney has converted 2.7 expected receiving touchdowns into 4 receiving touchdowns, 3 of which have come in the last four weeks.
Verdict: While Mooney’s route volume is high, his recent top-12 production is fueled by strong touchdown output. His future production profile is in line with the WR23 in PPG on the season, and he can be confidently started in an improving Atlanta offense.
