The Chargers Offense
Coming into the season, the prevailing thought was the Chargers’ offense would be a run-heavy unit. This was certainly true through the first four weeks of the season, as the team threw the ball 10% under the expected rate for their game situations.
After the team’s week 5 bye, the team is 2% over the expected pass rate.
This marks a major shift for a Chargers team that is not well suited to be a high-volume passing attack.
The change was not apparent in Denver's blowout win in week 6, which Denver closed to a one-score game in garbage time, but it showed up in a major way in week 7.
On Monday Night Football, Herbert had a season-high in completions (27), attempts (39), and receiving yards (349) and did so with his best yards per attempt of the season (8.9).
The beneficiary of the increase was Will Dissly. In the past two weeks, Dissly has played the top two route participation games of the season at 55% and 75%, accounting for 18% and 29% respectively. This has come at the expense of Hayden Hurst getting injured in week 6 and missing week 7.
Quentin Johnson missed week 7, allowing Simi Fehoko to jump to 95% route participation in week 7, which tied Ladd McConkey for the team-high in week 7. Johnston’s and Hurst’s return could complicate Fehoko and Dissly’s roles.
Notably, this could decrease J.K. Dobbins' workload. While his production was strong in week 6, it was in a blowout game script.
Verdict: If the volume increase is real, Herbert could be a better fantasy producer, with an opportunity for McConkey and Johnston to outperform expectations. While Hurst is out, Dissly should be a TE2 with TE1 ranges of outcomes.
Arizona’s Passing Game
Arizona is on the other side of the equation from the Chargers. In weeks 1 through 3, the team threw the ball at 3% under passing expectation, but in weeks 4 through 7, the passing rate fell to 9% under expectation.
This change has had a major impact on Marvin Harrison Jr. during the season. On the season, Harrison has been targeted on 23% of his routes. Harrison was targeted on 22% of his routes in the first three weeks, which jumped in weeks four through seven on 24% of his routes.
The problem has been the change in Harrison’s route volume. In the first three weeks of the season, Harrison averaged 31.7 routes per game. Excluding his injury-shortened week 6, Harrison has averaged 27.6 routes per game in weeks 4, 5, and 7.
James Conner's rushing production has gone up. He has had at least 18 carries and 86 rushing yards in three of the past four weeks when he has averaged 14 points per game.
The bigger outcome is that Harrison will suffer from Murray’s drop in passing game volume. This change could lead to disappointment for those who drafted Harrison with a first-round pick in the offseason.
Verdict: Murray could still sustain his fantasy production in the rushing game, but Harrison and McBride could suffer from the drop in passing game volume.
