Jameson Williams’ Hot Start
Jameson Williams is in the midst of a strong stretch of his season. In the two games since week 4 (week 5 bye), Williams is averaging 16.9 points per game, ranking as WR16 over the past three weeks.
On the season, Williams ranks WR22 in points per game (14.7).
On the season, Williams has run routes on 91% of Detroit’s dropbacks and has been targeted on 18% of his routes. Williams has 19% of his targets, which ranks behind Amon-Ra St. Brown (29%) but ahead of Sam LaPorta (11%) in the offense.
Williams has been a major improvement over where he was last season. In 2023, Williams only ran routes on 51% of Detroit’s games when he played, but he was only targeted on 17% of his routes, accounting for 10% of Detroit’s targets.
This season has seen a major improvement in his workload, but his production is unlikely to be sustained. Johnson ranks ninth in yards after the catch over expectation per catch and is doing so on a very high average depth of target (14.2).
On the season, Williams has only 16 receptions, 365 yards, and 3 touchdowns. The receiving yardage is substantially over expectation, with his 243.6 expected receiving yards.
Verdict: Jameson Williams has a good role in a great offense, but he is performing on the high side of variance, with production more in the role of his WR2-3 role going forward.
Baker Mayfield’s Great Start
Baker Mayfield is currently QB2 in standard scoring. He is averaging 31.5 attempts per game, and his 248.2 passing yards per game ranks as the second-best season of his career in passing yards.
Tampa Bay’s passing offense has high passing volume, ranking tied for third with a dropback rate over expectation of 4% under new offensive coordinator Liam Cohen. This is a jump from 1% in 2023, which is a great sign for the passing volume in the offense.
Mayfield has a league-high 15 passing touchdowns and is averaging 2.5 passing touchdowns per game, which is a touchdown rate of 7.9%. Based on his play thus far, Mayfield has an expectation of 11.7 passing touchdowns, which ranks 3rd in the league. His expected touchdown rate of 6.1% is still on the high side of the league.
Touchdown rate is one of the higher variable stats in quarterback play, with season-long production being a poor predictor of the following season’s production. This is especially true in smaller sample sizes.
Notably, Baker Mayfield’s PFF grade is 74.9, which ranks third for his career, while other advanced metrics, like big-time throw rate, rank in line with career numbers. This is a split in his performance compared to your production output.
Verdict: Mayfield is the beneficiary of high volume and good variance through week 6. This is a good offense, but expect Mayfield to produce more in the low-end QB1 through mid-QB2 range.
