Is This Real? Week 5

Photo: USA Today Sports

After four weeks, it is important to consider what is real and what is not sustainable for fantasy production.

Jayden Reed's Hot Start is Unsustainable

Reed finished as WR26 in overall points in 2023 and averaged 13.4PPG, good for WR27. Through four weeks in 2024, Reed ranks as WR6 in points per game (19.4) through week 4. While the production boost is nice, do not depend on it going forward. 

In 2024, Reed has run a route on 77% of the team's dropbacks and has been targeted on 21% of his routes.  This is a significant jump in route participation from 2023 (64%) but a drop in his target rate (23%). 

On the season, he has 17 receptions, which is a slight overperformance of his 15.9 expected receptions.  He has produced big plays, resulting in 336 receiving yards on 173.6 expected yards and two receiving touchdowns on 0.9 expected touchdowns. 

Reed's overperformance extends to the rushing game, where he has run for 91 yards with an expectation of 23.5.  He also scored a touchdown with an expectation of 0 rushing touchdowns. 

In short, this has resulted in Reed performing 5 points above expectation through four weeks.  This is bound for regression. 

A couple of things are in Reed's favor.  First, two of the games came with Malik Willis at quarterback when Green Bay deployed an extremely run-heavy approach.  In the two games Jordan Love has played, the team has thrown the ball 44 times per game.  In the two games Willis started, Green Bay threw the ball only 17 times per game.  Green Bay lost both games that Love started, so his passing attempts should fall, but the pass volume should be closer to the 44 attempts per game than the 17 attempts per game under Willis.

Second, Christian Watson's injury could linger, allowing Reed to see an expanded route participation. Reed will need this to continue his hot start for the remainder of the season.

Verdict: Overall, Reed is an efficient player, but this is a situation to sell high after Week 4.