After four weeks, it is important to consider what is real and what is not sustainable for fantasy production.
Jayden Reed's Hot Start is Unsustainable
Reed finished as WR26 in overall points in 2023 and averaged 13.4PPG, good for WR27. Through four weeks in 2024, Reed ranks as WR6 in points per game (19.4) through week 4. While the production boost is nice, do not depend on it going forward.
In 2024, Reed has run a route on 77% of the team's dropbacks and has been targeted on 21% of his routes. This is a significant jump in route participation from 2023 (64%) but a drop in his target rate (23%).
On the season, he has 17 receptions, which is a slight overperformance of his 15.9 expected receptions. He has produced big plays, resulting in 336 receiving yards on 173.6 expected yards and two receiving touchdowns on 0.9 expected touchdowns.
Reed's overperformance extends to the rushing game, where he has run for 91 yards with an expectation of 23.5. He also scored a touchdown with an expectation of 0 rushing touchdowns.
In short, this has resulted in Reed performing 5 points above expectation through four weeks. This is bound for regression.
A couple of things are in Reed's favor. First, two of the games came with Malik Willis at quarterback when Green Bay deployed an extremely run-heavy approach. In the two games Jordan Love has played, the team has thrown the ball 44 times per game. In the two games Willis started, Green Bay threw the ball only 17 times per game. Green Bay lost both games that Love started, so his passing attempts should fall, but the pass volume should be closer to the 44 attempts per game than the 17 attempts per game under Willis.
Second, Christian Watson's injury could linger, allowing Reed to see an expanded route participation. Reed will need this to continue his hot start for the remainder of the season.
Verdict: Overall, Reed is an efficient player, but this is a situation to sell high after Week 4.
Courtland Sutton's Luck Will Improve
Courtland Sutton has struggled through four weeks, averaging only 10 points per game at WR51 in scoring. Through four weeks, he has managed only 15 receptions for 192 yards and a touchdown.
On a deeper look, Sutton's profile is one to buy low on. Through four weeks, he has run a route on 88% of the team's dropbacks, above his 82% in 2023. Additionally, his route participation would be higher if not for a week 13 blowout win when he only ran routes on 73% of the team's dropbacks. In the other weeks, Sutton has run route on at least 93% of the team's dropbacks.
Sutton's target rate is also substantially higher than last year. In 2024, Sutton has been targeted on 25% of his routes and 27% of the team's targets. This is a significant jump from last year when he was targeted on 19% of his routes and 20% of the team's passing attempts.
Sutton's workshare is up, while Denver's passing offense also has the opportunity for significantly higher passing volume. In weeks 1-3, Denver passed 3% over expectation before a rain-soaked Week 4 game dropped their passing rate significantly. If Denver looks like they did in the first three weeks, Sutton could be in for a bigger passing volume than in 2023, when the team threw 2% under their expected rate.
On the season, Sutton has 48% of the team's air yards, which is tied for 6th in the league. His production has been held back by a catchable target rate of 53%, which ranks 87th out of 94 receivers with at least 60 routes through week 4. Notably, while Nix's completion percentage is 6% under expectation, of the three receivers with at least 40 routes in Denver's offense, Sutton is by far the worst in terms of catchable targets, behind Lil'Jordan Humphrey (85%) and Josh Reynolds (65%). This suggests that Sutton is the receiver in this offense who has been the least lucky in terms of his target, a stat that should rebound with more volume.
Verdict: Overall, Sutton is an enormous share of a Denver passing offense that could be higher volume than expected. He is held back by a low catchable target rate, which is likely a combination of poor quarterback play and bad variance. With Nix's continued development and some better variance, Sutton has top-10 production in his range of outcomes.
