Is This Real? Week 3

Photo: USA Today Sports

After two weeks, it is important to consider what is real and what is not sustainable for fantasy production.

Is Derek Carr’s Surge Real?

The New Orleans Saints offense is off to a surprising start, and at the heart of it is an unexpected duo—Derek Carr and Rashid Shaheed. The Saints are 2-0, and Carr is currently QB4 in fantasy scoring, shocking for a quarterback many saw as a mid-tier option heading into his 11th season.

While most expected Chris Olave to be Carr's top target, it’s Shaheed who has taken center stage. The young receiver has put up 9 targets, 7 receptions, 169 yards, and 2 touchdowns, making him WR9 in fantasy football. His explosiveness has been a revelation, and his chemistry with Carr has been instant.

In contrast, Olave, who many projected to have a breakout year with Carr under center, has been a bit of a disappointment. Olave currently ranks as WR52, with 8 targets, 6 receptions, 82 yards, and no touchdowns. Despite being involved, he hasn’t seen the kind of production expected from a player of his caliber.

Carr’s performance has also been surprising. He’s thrown 5 touchdowns on just 39 attempts, leading the league with a stunning 12.8% touchdown rate—an unsustainable pace for any quarterback.

New offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak is playing a major role in this shift. Carr holds the highest Pro Football Focus (PFF) grade in the league at 92.0. Notably, Carr has only 2 big-time throws (4.7%) and 1 turnover-worthy play (2.1%).

What's fueling his success is his deep-ball performance, which is among the best of his career. He leads the league with an adjusted completion percentage of 86.5%. Notably, Carr has thrown three touchdowns of over 50 yards. There are only 13 total such plays across the league this season, with the only other quarterback having more than one being Anthony Richardson.

Given that quarterback performance is generally stable year over year, expecting a significant shift from Carr in his 11th NFL season seems unlikely. However, Kubiak's system maximizes Carr’s strengths, focusing the offense around their top three playmakers.

Verdict: While Derek Carr’s red-hot start is unlikely to continue at this pace, and regression is expected, he’s shown that he’s capable of delivering top-12 fantasy quarterback production in this new-look Saints offense. As for Shaheed, his emergence as a key weapon could be here to stay—though Olave’s slow start is one of the more surprising developments of the young season.