There really is no offseason in the NFL—no sooner did the confetti settle from Kansas City's victory over San Francisco than teams started looking ahead to 2024. To free agency. Toward the 2024 NFL Draft in Detroit. And an important part of the annual pre-draft evaluation is the scouting Combine in Indianapolis.
Fans and pundits like to attach significant importance to the Combine, and there's no denying that a great (or terrible) workout can impact a player's draft stock. But whether you're an NFL Scout, an IDP pundit, or a fantasy manager, what the Combine should be is an opportunity to re-examine the evaluation you have already done on a player.
If you think a player is a promising prospect and he blows off the roof at Lucas Oil Stadium, then on some level, that confirms your belief that said player is the real deal. Conversely, if a highly-rated prospect on your board struggles in Indianapolis, that may mean it's time to go back and review tape of that prospect once again.
At the end of the day, tape don't lie.
A great combine won't get a Day 3 prospect drafted in Round 1. It also won't knock a top-10 prospect into the third round. But for better or worse, the Combine absolutely can affect a player's fortunes in the draft. Given how important landing spot is to a rookie IDP's dynasty fantasy value, it can affect that as well. Big-time.
These young defenders either have reason to celebrate or work to do after this year's workouts.
WINNER: EDGE Chop Robinson, Penn State
There's a fair amount of disagreement regarding the 6'3", 253-pound Robinson—some draftniks view him as a Day 2 selection, while others believe that Robinson won't make it out of the first round. You can count Bleacher Report's Matt Holder among the latter camp—and that was before Robinson had arguably the best workout of any edge-rusher at the Combine.
"Robinson might have the best combination of get-off and bend in this draft class," Holder wrote. "He's lightning-quick off the ball and very flexible in his lower body. He's a top-tier athlete which, combined with how well he sets up his pass-rush moves, gives him a ton of potential as an edge-rusher in the NFL. Robinson also has sneaky strength and is physical at the point of attack. That helps him take advantage of weaker offensive tackles when turning speed to power and overcome some of his size deficiencies as a run defender when his hands and leverage are right."
Robinson showed off his athleticism and explosiveness at the Combine—his 4.48-second 40-yard dash, 1.54-second 10-yard split and 10-foot-8 broad jump was all either tops or tied for the top spot among edge-rushers. There are legitimate questions about Robinson's play strength and hand placement, but the latter can be coached. Put Robinson at "rush" linebacker, where he can best use that speed and bend, and the youngster could do some damage early in his career.
LOSER: EDGE Bralen Trice, Washington
Washington's Bralen Trice was a key component of the Huskies' run to the College Football Playoff Championship Game, and he's considered a borderline first-round prospect by some draftniks. However, where Chop Robinson won in college with speed and quickness, Trice logged 11.5 tackles for loss and seven sacks a year ago with power and (in his words) relentlessness.
"I think it's my relentlessness out there on the field," Trice told reporters at the Combine. "Constantly going. Never getting tired. Even if I was tired, you're going to catch me crawling to the quarterback. If I'm out there dying on the field before you stop me. That, on top of knowledge of the game and taking a lot of time watching all the films and getting all the calls right. Just that love for that game. That passion to go out there for my brothers and that camaraderie it's just really what drove me out there."
Trice's game does not translate well to an event like the Combine, so it wasn't that surprising when he ran in the 4.7s. What was surprising, though, was that Trice showed up in Indianapolis at 245 pounds—down almost 30 pounds from his listed weight at Washington. He also struggled in movement drills. That, combined with his lower weight, could cause potential 4-3 fits like the Detroit Lions to hesitate on selecting Trice late in Round 1.
WINNER: LB Payton Wilson, North Carolina State
At 6-foot-3 and 233 pounds, Wilson is a prototypical off-ball linebacker with as much athleticism as any player at the position in his draft class. But Wilson also has a lengthy injury history that includes a serious knee injury in high school and a shoulder injury that wiped out almost his entire 2021 season. However, Wilson stayed relatively healthy the past two years, and he told Rick Spielman of CBS Sports that those injuries have caused him to treasure the game that much more.
"I just don't take this for granted," Wilson said. "I don't take the weight room for granted because I've been in situations where it's been taken away from me. These last two years I've stayed super healthy, and I praise the Lord for that. Just continuing to push myself every single day and play the game like it's going to be taken away from me. Because at the end of the day, none of us know when it's gonna be taken away."
Wilson certainly didn't take anything for granted in Combine workouts. Quite the opposite, in fact. Wilson's 4.43-second 40-yard dash led all linebackers; he posted an impressive 34.5" vertical and 9-foot-11 broad jump and looked quick and fluid in change-of-direction drills. The medicals are still a valid concern, but Wilson's workout was so impressive that he may have worked his way into the conversation to be the first off-ball linebacker in a relatively unimpressive class to be drafted.
LOSER: LB Tommy Eichenberg, Ohio State
In many respects, Ohio State's Tommy Eichenberg is something of a throwback linebacker—a tenacious run defender and ferocious hitter with solid instincts and an old-school attitude about the game. However, in 2024, playing linebacker is all about sideline-to-sideline speed and agility—an area where Damian Parson of The Draft Network wrote that the 6-foot-2, 233-pounder has been known to struggle.
"Eichenberg is an average sideline-to-sideline athlete," Parson said. "He lacks the speed to cover ground from the inside linebacker position. He is not an ideal candidate to deploy in man-to-man coverage against tight ends or running backs out of the backfield. There are some hip tightness concerns along with athleticism that make man coverage a difficult ask. Eichenberg is not a great change-of-direction mover. Versus the run, he can be a tad over-aggressive when working downhill and will bite on play-action. Fighting through and shedding blocks is a bit of a challenge for him."
Eichenberg didn't necessarily have a bad combine. But his 9-foot-8 broad jump and 32.5" vertical aren't going to cause any jaws to hit the floor. Neither is a 4.24-second 20-yard shuttle time. Most importantly, Eichenberg elected not to run the 40-yard dash—a decision that isn't going to help dissuade opinions that he's too slow to be a three-down player at the NFL level.
WINNER: S Kitan Oladapo, Oregon State
The general consensus heading into Indianapolis was that Miami safety Kamren Kinchens was the top prospect at his position in the 2024 class. However, there are those who feel that Oregon State's Kitan Oladapo isn't far behind at all—and Bleacher Report's Cory Giddings and Derrik Klassen believe the gap may well have narrowed at the Combine.
"Oladapo is one of the bigger and most versatile safeties in the draft," they wrote. "He's an imposing prospect. He's also rather athletic. At 6'2" and 216 pounds, a 4.58-second 40-yard dash is rather good. He moved well throughout the day and flashed some range as a deep defender. His long strides covered a lot of ground, with the ability to high-point the ball and enough body control to tightrope along the sideline."
Oladapo has already been lauded by some scouts for his versatility—he's a plus run defender who can also hold his own in man coverage. In an era where many NFL teams value safeties capable of playing both deep and in the box, Oladapo's well-rounded skill-set will be appealing—especially if he can improve that 40 time at Oregon State's Pro Day.
LOSER: S Kamren Kinchens, Miami
The Class of 2024 at safety isn't especially strong—there's no Kyle Hamilton or Jamal Adams who will be drafted in the top 10. There may be a safety selected in Round 1. But coming into Indianapolis, the general consensus was that the 5-foot-11, 206-pound Kinchens was the best of the lot. But as Bill Huber wrote for Packer Central, that consensus was shaken up a bit by what transpired in Indy.
"Kinchens ran his 40 in 4.65 seconds," Huber said. "That was tied for the slowest among the safeties who ran the 40 on Friday. In a less-important drill, the broad jump, Kinchens was last at 9-foot-2. Relative Athletic Score combines height, weight, speed, and other testing numbers into a 0-to-10 score. Kinchens' mark was 2.11 – a woeful number."
Now, one bad day or workout doesn't erase everything Kinchens put on tape at Miami, where he was a solid coverage player and stout run defender who always seemed to be around the ball. But scouts and draftniks will likely re-watch that tape with a more critical bent now, and Kinchens needs to put on a show at Miami's Pro Day if he's going to be the first safety drafted in 2024.
Gary Davenport is a two-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association Football Writer of the Year. Follow Gary on Twitter at @IDPSharks.
