Week 1 of the 2023 NFL season has come and gone and it's on to Week 2. It's important to take note of different storylines and situations, but it's also important not to overreact to some of these circumstances and occurrences. Let's dig deep and try to decipher some clarity as we look back at Week 1 and look ahead to Week 2. 

Chasing points is real, and it's a slippery slope. We've all done it. Player X has a huge week (on your bench), so you do what any self-respecting fantasy enthusiast would do. You start him next week, and he is a disappointment. So now you've lost out on the first week of success, and you followed it up with a dud in the second week. What do you do in the third week? We've all been there. Every single one of us. That's the downside of chasing points. The upside, of course, is racking up the points each week. How can you predict those who will have a successful outcome and those who won't? It's tricky, but there are signs, triggers, and factors. I'll get to that...

Don't worry too much about Week 1 failures

Some teams take time to right the ship, figure out their blocking schemes, find the right mix of personnel to handle an assignment, the right coaching decisions, play the right opponent, get a healthy player back, etc. Take a look at last year, for example...

• The Jets beat the Bills despite Aaron Rodgers tearing his Achilles in the opening minutes of the season. An overtime punt return for a touchdown sealed the victory for New York. The Jets lost their next three games and finished with a 7-10 record while Buffalo won their next three games and eventually circled the wagons with six wins in their last seven games en route to a two-seed in the playoffs.
• C.J. Stroud failed to throw a touchdown in his debut game. He threw at least 2 touchdown passes in four of his next five games. 
• Jahmyr Gibbs, Isiah Pacheco, Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs, Rachaad White, and Najee Harris all had fewer than 10 fantasy points in Week 1 last year. 
• De'Von Achane was a healthy scratch in Week 1 and we saw him blossom into a winner.
• Gus Edwards scored 3 fantasy points in the first game and he went on to score 13 touchdowns. 

In reality, Week 1 is one of 18 weeks of the NFL regular season. It stands out more because it's the first game. We're all watching with bated breath trying to get clarity on situations across the league. Some performances may be a sign of things to come, but others may be an anomaly. It's a small sample size but we think we may be able to predict the future from one week. There may be something there, but then again, it may be a ruse. How do you know the difference?

There are more wide receivers on the field than players in any other position. This means more receivers have a chance to rank high, but on the other hand, more receivers also have a chance to rank lower. Don't overreact, especially when it comes to wide receivers.

Here is a list of ten factors you should consider to understand a player's fantasy value when looking ahead to the rest of the season. You can use Footballguys as a resource for this information

• Observe snap counts and snap percentages. How often were they on the field? Footballguys displays offense and defense snap count numbers every week.
• Examine the depth chart around them. Is there an opening for this player to thrive moving forward?
• What are coaches saying their players? Google Gemini can help with this - Try using this prompt - "What are coaches saying about Jameson Williams' Week 1 performance?" AI for sports is improving and if you know the right prompts, it can be super helpful. 
• Did an injury open the door for more involvement? Footballguys has you covered here, too - Injury Articles
• Was a particular matchup the main reason for their success or failure?
• Did their points come in garbage time? Will this be a commonality with his team?
• Did their production come from one or two big plays?
• How many red-zone targets did they have? Red zone targets by team
• What was their target share % compared to the rest of the team? Player targets or targets by position
• Was their fantasy production touchdown-dependent, or were they consistent throughout the game?

Sometimes it's just a feeling. Texans running back Joe Mixon started off the year with 30 carries for 159 yards, 3 receptions for 19 yards and a touchdown. It's only one game, but there are signs that it may not be a fluke. In eight seasons, Mixon has six top-15 finishes. He signed with a contending team with a quality quarterback who isn't a running threat, and this year he'll have a fullback leading the way for him for the first time in his career. Before the successful performance in Week 1, coach DeMeco Ryans said "Mixon will be a focal point of the offense, carrying a significant workload and playing a crucial role in both the running and passing game." Sometimes, you just have to read the tea leaves and listen to relevant people. 

Week 1 Injury Update

Notable Injuries:

• Jake Ferguson (DAL): Likely lateral meniscus/bone bruise, expected to miss 1-4 weeks.
• Jordan Addison (MIN): Right high ankle sprain, potential 2-3 week absence.
• Christian McCaffrey (SF): Calf, potential re-inury. Week 2 in doubt
• Jordan Love (GB): MCL sprain, possible return in Week 4 with limitations.
• Kenneth Walker (SEA): Abdomen injury, expected to play Week 2 but monitor groin/oblique history.
• David Njoku (CLE): Right high ankle, anticipated 2-3 week absence.
• Kirk Cousins (MIN): Achilles repair affecting performance, Michael Penix Jr. could see playing time.
• Puka Nacua (LA): Right knee reinjury, return to play is uncertain.

Other Injuries:

• Keenan Allen (LAC): Favored right leg, returned to game, likely minor.
• Saquon Barkley (NYG): Stinger, returned to game and did not appear to affect him.
• Jaylen Waddle (MIA): Cleared concussion screening, returned to game.
• DJ Moore (CAR): Right shoulder/AC, returned to game without issue.
• Josh Allen (BUF): Left hand confusion, unlikely to significantly impact next week.
• DeAndre Hopkins (TEN): Played but saw minimal production, expected dip in performance for 6 weeks.
• Mark Andrews (BAL): Ravens offensive scheme, not injury, led to weak production.
• Tee Higgins (CIN): Hamstring - Average return time of his severity is 2 weeks, but may miss Week 2.
• Marquise Hollywood Brown (KC): Shoulder - Expected to return in Week 2-3. Monitor practice
• Russell Wilson (PIT): Calf - likely available Week 2 but may not start.
• Roman Wilson (PIT): Ankle - trending towards playing Week 2.

Contenders & Pretenders

While it’s only one game, let’s consider who might be worth keeping an eye on this season and who might not live up to the hype.

Contenders

• Joe Mixon, HOU - Mixon received a league-leading 30 carries in 33 total backfield opportunities, showcasing his trust from the coaching staff and the team's commitment to utilizing him as a primary workhorse. He averaged 5.3 yards per carry, caught 3 passes for 19 yards and scored a touchdown. He was the fuel of the offense for Houston in Week 1 which bodes well for his future outlook. 
• Baker Mayfield, TB - Mayfield's Week 1 performance against the Commanders was uplifting to see. He completed 24 of 30 passes for 289 yards and 4 touchdowns and showed his ability to lead the offense and distribute the ball efficiently. This strong showing suggests a promising start to the season for both Mayfield and the Buccaneers. His performance echoes his late-season success in 2023, when he ranked as the QB8 from Weeks 10 to 18. Mayfield's ability to maintain a high level of play despite the changes in the Tampa Bay coaching staff bodes well for his 2024 outlook.
• All rushing quarterbacks - This is no secret. Rushing quarterbacks do well for fantasy purposes. The passing prowess is an added bonus, but for the most part, quarterbacks who run well, produce much better than those who don't. Anthony Richardson finished with 26.1 fantasy points despite having only 9 completions. Jayden Daniels had zero touchdown passes but finished with 28.2 fantasy points. As usual, Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson performed well and finished in the top 5 this week. In comparison, Tua Tagovailoa had 338 yards passing but only 18.6 points. If you don't have a rushing quarterback, there better be no mistakes and at least two touchdown passes to hold serve to these other dual-threat phenoms. 
• Cooper Kupp, LAR - Cooper Kupp has benefited from playing with Matthew Stafford, an underrated quarterback known for his toughness and ability to move the ball down the field. With Puka Nacua likely out due to a knee injury, Kupp is expected to take on the majority of the receiving duties. He has a history of dealing with knee, ankle, and hamstring issues, but when healthy, he is one of the best receivers in the league. In 2021, when he was the top target, he had an impressive 145 receptions. While he may not reach those heights again, it is clear that he will continue to be a significant part of the team’s offense in 2024.
• Isaiah Likely, BAL - This is a tough decision. Likely has shown flashes in the past and it's clear that Baltimore wants to get him more involved in the offense, with or without Mark Andrews. Andrews was not on the injury report for Week 1, however, he had a fibula fracture and high-ankle mechanism that ended his season last year. He also was involved in a car accident in August. How much of that affected him? Did it affect him? He looked less than spry on the field and the Ravens gravitated more toward the faster, more athletic Likely. Will this be a sign of things to come? It might, and Baltimore seems fine with his usage in Week 1. Andrews is a good receiver, but he benefits from a system that heavily involves the tight end. Now, it appears as if his level of play has dwindled some, while Likely's play has improved. There may be games where both are productive, but the writing on the wall seems to indicate a slight changing of the guard in Baltimore. If Likely performs well in the coming weeks, that change may be more permanent. 
• Malik Nabers, NYG - This is more of a hunch, but it feels like Malik Nabers is going to be the top target on the Giants this season. Wan'Dale Robinson may have had 12 targets in Week 1 compared to Nabers 7 targets, but Robinson worked out of the slot 87% of his snaps and the Giants felt comfortable with the slot against Minnesota. Nabers will be on the field more and eventually will be moved around to get him diesigned plays. His ability to consistently make plays downfield will ultimately lead to him taking over as the top target. This week's matchup against Washington is a favorable one. If Daniel Jones and Nabers don't produce this week, maybe the development will take some time, but all indications suggest Nabers will a key piece to the Giants offense. 
• Jameson Williams, DET - Jameson Williams had a huge Week 1 against the Rams with 5 catches for 121 yards on 9 targets with a touchdown. After seeing his speed utilized, there is a universe where both he and Amon-Ra St. Brown can co-exist and be productive. St. Brown may not dominate targets like he has in the past, but both can be productive and Detroit is starting to learn this. 

Pretenders

• Jayden Reed, GB - Jayden Reed currently leads the wide receiver rankings with 33.1 PPR points, thanks to 138 receiving yards on 4 receptions, a receiving touchdown, as well as 33 yards rushing and a rushing touchdown. So, what's wrong? The Packers have three, if not four capable wide receivers. Who's to say Reed will consistently be the top producer? He may be, but Week 1 may have been his best game of the year. The Packers pass distribution leaders in Week 1 were Christian Watson (5 targets 63% snaps), Reed (6 targets, 72% snaps) and Romeo Doubs (7 targets, 87% snaps). Consistency could be an issue. The biggest reason this type of production might not be sustained is the health of Jordan Love. Love suffered a grade 1-2 MCL sprain to his left knee. He will be out 2-6 weeks and Green Bay's medical staff is known for taking extra caution with their stars. Replacing him is Malik Willis, who has not shown he can be an effective downfield passer. This is a concern for any Packers receivers. Hold on to Reed (as well as Watson and Doubs) but don't expect big numbers with Willis under center. 
• Allen Lazard, NYJ - The Jets top wide receiver is Garrett Wilson. Allen Lazard is a convenient option that Aaron Rodgers has a history of playing with. He may fare better than expected overall but he is not expected to be a consistent scorer week in and week out. This looks to be a clear case of chasing points if you decide to add him on the waiver wire. 
• Xavier Worthy, KC - It is challenging to type this because the Chiefs, Patrick Mahomes, plus Andy Reid’s playcalling greatly elevate Worthy. His low volume of targets is reminiscent of how Reid initially used Tyreek Hill. Although Worthy’s speed is evident and the Chiefs will find ways to use him, it raises the question of whether he will consistently get enough opportunities. Kansas City has several weapons to choose from, such as Travis Kelce, Rashee Rice, and Isiah Pacheco. Where will Worthy fit in that mix? What will happen when Marquise Brown returns from his shoulder injury? With concerns about the lack of volume, it’s hard to be too excited about Worthy, at least for now.

Tyreek Hill's targets in his first 9 games. https://t.co/z2wFjV6b5A

— Jeff Haseley (@JeffHaseley) September 6, 2024

A FEW TIDBITS WORTH NOTING

10+ targets but zero touchdowns

• Wan'Dale Robinson, NYG: 12 targets, 6 recs, 44 yards
• Courtland Sutton, DEN: 12 targets, 4 recs, 38 yards
• Garrett Wilson, NYJ: 11 targets, 6 recs, 60 yards
• Keenan Allen, CHI: 11 targets, 4 recs, 29 yards
• CeeDee Lamb, DAL: 10 targets, 5 recs, 61 yards
• Zay Flowers, BAL: 10 targets, 6 recs, 37 yards

Players who scored a receiving touchdown with 4 or fewer targets

• 4 Foster Moreau, NO
• 4 Brian Thomas Jr, JAC
• 3 Zach Charbonnet, SEA
• 3 Juwan Johnson, NO
• 3 Jalen McMillan, TB
• 3 Alec Pierce, IND
• 3 Kyle Pitts, ATL
• 3 Khalil Shakir, BUF
• 3 Xavier Worthy, KC (two scores)
• 2 Saquon Barkley, PHI
• 2 Mack Hollins, BUF
• 2 Chigoziem Okonkwo, TEN
• 2 Michael Wilson, ARI
• 1 Ashton Dulin, IND
• 1 Jalen Nailor, MIN

15+ PPR points without a touchdown

• 17.7 Nico Collins, HOU
• 17.3 Rashee Rice, KC
• 16.6 Rachaad White, TB
• 16.2 Jalen Waddle, MIA
• 16.1 Bijan Robinson, ATL
• 15.4 DeVonta Smith, PHI

Team Defense Stats

Defenses with 4+ sacks

• 6 DAL
• 5 MIN
• 4 BUF, IND, NO, LAC

Defenses who allowed 15 points or less.

• 6 MIN
• 10 LAC, PIT, NE, NO

Defenses with 2+ turnovers

• 3 LAC, CHI, GB, NO, PIT, SEA
• 2 MIN, DEN, NYG, SF

Defenses with 0 turnovers

• ATL, CIN, CLE, IND, JAC, LV, TB, WAS, NYJ

Thanks for reading. Questions or comments, hit me up on "X" formerly Twitter.

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