DraftKings Sunday Night Showdown: Week 9

NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage and uniqueness. Fading the highest-rostered plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge is going to come by identifying the best low-rostered plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.

This article will have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the Showdown decision-making process is more interesting, given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. FanDuel's pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You will usually need the slate's top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel's strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.

Advice in this article will pertain predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.

Game Theory

Vegas isn’t overly worried by the 49ers’ injury woes. They’re still a solid -4.5 home favorite over the down-bad Cowboys. That said, the 48.5 projected total reflects a serious lack of offensive firepower on the field. Cash games will favor the simple, stripped-down approach: chase the locked-in volume of CeeDee Lamb and Jordan Mason. Those looking to win deep Showdowns, though, will look at all the peripheral options.

Injury Report

Indianapolis will be starting Joe Flacco after Anthony Richardson was benched this past week. On the defensive side of the ball, Kwity Paye is questionable for a defensive end unit that is not deep, as they've already had three players be placed on IR. If he was unable to go, this would boost the Vikings deep threat ability. Viking's deep-threat 

Minnesota lost Christian Darrisaw for the season with a knee injury. This is a massive loss to lose their potential Pro Bowl left tackle. They traded for Cam Robinson this week, but Robinson himself is not 100% healthy as he has not played since Week 7. It’s unclear whether Robinson is able to play this week on just three days' notice since joining the team. It seems likely they give him the start with very little other options at left tackle. The Vikings did get some good news this week as guard Dalton Risner was activated off of IR. Risner will likely start at left guard this week which should improve their rushing upside this week.

Captain Consideration

1. Justin Jefferson
2. Josh Downs
3. Joe Flacco
4. Aaron Jones
5. Michael Pittman Jr.
6. Jordan Addison (longshot captain)

Indianapolis Colts

Quarterback

Joe Flacco (CPT or FLEX)

With the return of Joe Flacco comes upside within this Colts passing offense. While Flacco has not produced the level of success that he did in Cleveland last season, the signs are still there for a breakout performance this week. In his two games as a starter, Flacco has had one game under 200 passing yards and one game against Jacksonville, where he threw for 359 yards and three touchdowns. Flacco is mostly going to be matchup-dependent going forward as he has the arm talent to carve up a team like Jacksonville, but he will struggle against some of the better pass defenses like we saw against Tennessee. The good news for Flacco is that this matchup is much closer to the Jacksonville matchup, as Minnesota is struggling to stop the pass. Last week, they allowed Matthew Stafford to throw for 279 yards and four touchdowns. Minnesota has allowed 275 passing yards in three of their last four games while allowing multi-touchdowns in all four of those contests.

Running Back

Jonathan Taylor (FLEX)

This is a difficult spot for Jonathan Taylor this week, but the talent alone should keep him in flex consideration. Taylor looked great in his return from injury last week, rushing for 105 yards against the Texans. Taylor has now ran for over 100 yards in three of his last four games while scoring four touchdowns in that timeframe. The issue for Taylor is Minnesota is allowing just 77 rushing yards per game, and while they have allowed big games to Kyren Williams and Jahmyr Gibbs over the last two weeks, they are one of the better defenses that the Colts have played this season against the run.

The biggest worry this week for Taylor is the game script. With Indianapolis on the road against one of the best offenses in the NFL, this could very quickly become a game where the Colts take a pass heavy approach against the Vikings. Taylor has caught just seven passes in the five games that he has played this week, which for him to pay off as a captain at this price, he would likely need 100 yards and multiple touchdowns. This is a week where there are very few value plays that allow you to spend up at that running back position.

Wide Receiver

Josh Downs (Captain or Flex)
Michael Pittman Jr (Captain or Flex)
Alec Pierce (Captain Only)
Adonai Mitchell (Flex)

The Colts receivers have a tremendous opportunity here in Week 9. They’re facing Minnesota who are allowing the most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers so far in 2024 as they’re allowing 205 yards per game and 1.6 touchdowns to the position. For Joe Flacco, so far his favorite target has been Josh Downs in Flacco’s limited playing time this season. Downs has at least 60 yards and 9 targets in four of his last five games scoring a touchdown in three of those contests.

For Pittman, you’re getting more volatility, but the upside certainly is still there for him based on his current price on this slate. With the return to Joe Flacco, you’re hoping that Pittman can duplicate his 6 reception, 113-yard performance against Pittsburgh back in Week 4, as he has not had nearly the success that Downs has had with Flacco at quarterback. In the two games that Flacco started this season, Pittman had just 3 receptions for 35 yards against Tennessee and 5 receptions for 37 yards against Jacksonville. Thankfully, he scored a touchdown in each of those games. While he is cheap, he’s likely a better flex play than a captain play, although he should still be considered a captain.

With Alec Pierce, you have to realize you’re going to get 2-3 deep shots per game. Averaging 24.6 yards per catch, Pierce has three receptions longer than 40 yards this season, which is 19% of his total catches. If you’re taking him, you’re hoping for his performance against Jacksonville with Joe Flacco as he had 3 receptions for 134 yards and a touchdown. The Vikings have issues at the safety position, and the speedster could match up well against the aging Stephon Gilmore at corner, who is in his 13th season in the NFL.

Despite the record-breaking speed, the Colts have utilized Adonai Mitchell primarily as a possession-type player trying to leverage his speed through wide receiver screens or quick throws to get him in space. Mitchell has four or more targets in three of his last four games, but the issue for the rookie is the lack of playing time. Since Josh Downs returned in Week 3, Mitchell has only been on the field for about 20% of the snaps each game. At $3,000, it’s likely he will have some involvement in the passing game, but they just are not utilizing him enough in the downfield throws to justify playing him as a captain this week.

Tight End

Mo Alie-Cox (Flex)

If you’re looking for a pure punt play. Alie-Cox at $1,600 could be a way to look this week. In the two games that Alie-Cox started, he had four targets in both of them averaging 39 yards per game. If he can duplicate this production and get 6-8 points he will allow you to spend up at other positions this week.

Minnesota Vikings

Quarterback

Sam Darnold (Flex)

Sam Darnold has been extremely consistent in 2024, but is lacking the upside that you want from a captain. In a Showdown contest to take a quarterback as your captain, you want one of three things. Either rushing upside, 300+ yard upside, or a quarterback who distributes the ball to a number of different receivers. For Darnold, he does not meet any of those three criteria. Even though the matchup against Indianapolis is strong, Darnold is averaging just 15 rushing yards per game, has not thrown for over 300 yards this season, and has a narrow target tree with Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison.

Running Back

Aaron Jones (Captain or Flex)

Aaron Jones is in a great matchup this week against the Colts. Indianapolis is allowing 123 rushing yards per game while allowing a running back to top 100 yards in four of their eight games this season. For Jones, he’s a low-end captain just because we have not seen the upside, but it could be there as he had 92% of the snaps last week, which was a season-high as Ty Chandler largely fell out of favor in Minnesota with just 4% of snaps last week. For Jones, he will likely need to either be more involved in the passing game this week as he has averaged just two receptions over the last three games, or rush for over 100-yards which he has done just once this season. The volume will be there and makes for a strong flex play in this matchup as he has 20 or more touches in 3 of his last 5 games.

Wide Receiver

Justin Jefferson (Captain or Flex)
Jordan Addison (Captain Only or Flex in a Vikings stack)

At $11,600 for the flex position, Justin Jefferson is expensive, but is actually somewhat underpriced considering he’s only $1,000 more than Jonathan Taylor this week. When it comes to upside, no player has the upside that Jefferson will have on this showdown as 34% of the targets for Minnesota are going to Jefferson on the year. We’ve seen the Colts struggle with deep threats which both Jefferson and Jordan Addison both are as George Pickens had 113 yards on 7 receptions, Rome Odunze had 112 yards on 6 catches, and Nico Collins had 117 yards on 6 catches. This is an opportunity for Jefferson, who is averaging 15.8 yards per catch to get behind this defense as the Colts safeties have struggled in coverage this year.

For Addison, he’s likely only a captain play this week. The price is simply too high for a player who has four targets or less in four of his five games this season. This is a player similar to Jefferson who the Vikings utilize heavily in the deep throws, so the upside is there for him as he’s averaging 16.5 yards per catch, but there likely is not much of a middle ground here. He’s either going to catch multiple long passes and get close to 100-yards and a touchdown, or he’ll have less than 40 yards which he has done three out of the five games this year.

Tight End

T.J. Hockenson (Flex Only)

T.J. Hockenson returns from injury this week and will make his season debut after missing the first eight weeks of the season after suffering an ACL injury last season. Hockenson claims that he is “bigger, faster, and stronger” than he has ever been before, which simply is contradictory as he could be bigger and stronger, but certainly not faster in his first game back from an ACL injury and if he’s carrying more weight. Hockenson has always been a high-volume, low-ceiling receiver in Minnesota. In his 25 games with the team, he’s averaging just 9.5 yards per catch, although he has topped 100 yards four times. However, this week he has to establish a relationship with a new quarterback that he has not had much time to prepare and that is likely going to take time. Sam Darnold has not been someone who has involved the tight end all season, as no tight end has 100 yards on the year for this team. Asking Darnold to change his progressions and begin starting all new plays just seems unlikely in a game where the Vikings have lost two in a row. Expect 40-50 yards from Hockenson and maybe they draw something up to try to get him a touchdown.

Kicker and Defense

Will Reichard has been one of the best kickers in the NFL this season. Reichard is 14/14 on the year, having made all four of his 50+ yard kicks. In an indoor kicking environment, this should give the Vikings confidence in the rookie. Matt Gay, on the other hand, has struggled with the longer kicks that you’ll want to see if you’re taking a player in showdowns. He’s just 1-3 on 50+ yard kicks on the season and does not have a  kick longer than 52 yards. He was slightly better last season from a distance, as he was 8-13, but the Colts just are not giving him the opportunities this season.

Of the two defenses, Minnesota’s is likely going to be the one that you’re going to want to target if you’re targeting one here. Joe Flacco has had sack issues this season, as in his first two games against Pittsburgh and Jacksonville, he was sacked on 10% of his dropbacks. He did avoid getting sacked against Tennessee, but the Titans have one of the worst pass rushes in the NFL. Minnesota’s pass rush has been good this year as they’re seventh in the NFL in sacks led by their linebackers Andrew Van Ginkel, Jonathan Greenard, and Patrick Jones II each who have 5 sacks this season.

Player Chart