Slate Overview- Week 18 Thoughts
Most people despise Week 18, but it actually can be a profitable week for you if you play your cards right. Every year, there are people who become way too invested in the “value” that is created by teams that are resting players, as well as going overboard based on player incentives, and who have “extra” motivation to play well as if it is a real thing. Fading these players that get propped up in roster percentage because of these financial incentives
Let’s start with player incentives. An incentive is different than a record, as it is entirely personal, meaning a player will achieve a financial bonus if he hits a certain milestone. While the player certainly cares about this, unless the head coach, play caller, and quarterback also care about the finances of an individual player, then it’s unlikely that they’re going to get more carries or more targets simply because of a financial number. If it is a reasonable number, such as four catches for 50 yards, to get a bonus, then you might see that more likely than not. But for this to have a real GPP value, it’s crazy to think that NFL head coaches and Offensive Coordinators are sitting at a pre-game meeting with a sheet that says here are all of our bonuses for the week; how can we make sure that our players hit these. That just doesn’t happen, especially in Week 18, when that head coach and offensive coordinator often are wondering whether they will have a job next week.
The one exception to this could be quarterbacks running. Take Kyler Murray for example, he needs 50 rushing yards and a rushing touchdown for a $750k bonus. That is entirely in Murray’s control whether he wants to do that or not, as he could simply tuck the ball and run more often than normal, and the coaching staff is not going to have to change their entire game plan around it.
Records, on the other hand, are completely different. These are things that the teams will game plan around. Coaching staff view these as team accomplishments, often being able to put on their individual resumes, and are something that the organization takes pride in. Think about the Eagles and how they wanted to talk to everyone about whether or not to play Saquon Barkley and allow him to go for the record. It’s an organizational achievement rather than a financial one that the team could just end up paying out anyway, as happens in a lot of cases if they want to appease the player.
A key record that we’re tracking this week is Brock Bowers, who needs nine receptions to break the all-time receptions by a tight end record. With the Raiders having nothing to play for, you could see a few extra targets go to Bowers.
Key Injuries for Week 18
- James Conner and Trey Benson are both out for the Cardinals. This will make Michael Carter the starter for the Cardinals. We saw Carter last week have a significant role as he had 13 carries for 70 yards while also catching two passes for the Cardinals.
- Several teams are resting their starters this week. Kansas City, Los Angeles Rams, Philadelphia, Buffalo, and potentially Houston and LA Chargers are going to be resting their players. These are teams that could have value created from their backups, but they are ones that you need to be careful with. Houston and Los Angeles Chargers are teams that you likely should avoid completely. It is going to be difficult enough to win with these backup players, but if you’re only getting the backup players for half a game, you’re likely severely limiting your upside.
- One key injury in Philadelphia is Will Shipley. If he were not to be cleared due to a concussion, Kenneth Gainwell would become a top play this week.
- Kendre Miller is out for the Saints, as they’ll start Clyde Edwards-Helaire against the Buccaneers' elite run-stopping unit. This is probably just a stay-away, as Jamaal Williams will likely also have a role this week.
- Joe Flacco will once again start for Indianapolis. This should help the receivers once again, as Flacco threw for over 300 yards last week.
- Trey Lance reportedly will get significant snaps for the Cowboys this week. The Cowboys will need to pay Cooper Rush a $500k bonus if he plays the entire game.
- Joshua Dobbs will start this week for Brock Purdy. Deebo Samuel Sr. will also miss the final week of the season, while George Kittle remains questionable. This should open up the door for Jauan Jennings to have even more of a role than he already has in recent weeks, while Ricky Pearsall will also have a significant increase and can build off of his career game last week.
Stacks
Joshua Dobbs, Jauan Jennings, Trey McBride
Joshua Dobbs at $4,000 is too cheap on this slate. You’re going to need to find savings on this slate somewhere, and going cheap at the quarterback position allows you to avoid taking some of the replacement players who are going to see more playing time because of the team’s resting. For Dobbs, we’ve seen him have an extended starting stint with both the Cardinals and Vikings. Where Dobbs drives the most value is his mobility, as he ran for six touchdowns last season. For Jauan Jennings, he’s in a spot where the 49ers are going to need to throw the ball with Deebo and potentially George Kittle out. Earlier this season, we saw Brandon Aiyuk torch this defense for 147 yards back in Week 5. At $5,800, you’re getting a clear number-one player with very little competition around him this week.
Paying up at the tight-end position is going to be the popular route this week. Both Trey McBride and Brock Bowers give you such an advantage compared to the rest of the tight end position. We saw the Cardinals actively trying to get the tight end a touchdown, and they were able to connect for their first touchdown of the season. Ultimately, they tried going back to McBride in the red zone at the end of the game, but the ball hit off his helmet and was ultimately intercepted. With Marvin Harrison Jr. continuing to struggle, McBride saw 16 targets last week. San Francisco has struggled in recent weeks against the tight end position, as Sam LaPorta and Jonnu Smith have had over 60 yards in the last two games.
Jayden Daniels, Olamide Zaccheaus, Brandin Cooks (optional)
Jayden Daniels is going overlooked this week. At just 5%, he doesn’t fit the optimal builds because of the elite options at both the running back and wide receiver positions. Daniels showed his upside the last two weeks as he’s had 35 and 36 DraftKings points. There’s no other quarterback on this slate that has the upside that Daniels ultimately has with both his rushing and passing abilities. The Commanders are getting Austin Ekeler back from a concussion, which could open up even more passing opportunities this week. The reason for Zach Ertz instead of Terry McLaurin is that the game plan is similar to last week's. Last week, McLaurin was shut down by A.J. Terrell Jr., and this week, he will be facing another elite cornerback in Daron Bland. This will likely force Daniels to look at Olamide Zaccheaus once again. Zaccheaus has emerged as a reliable second option for the Commanders, as he has 23 DraftKings points or more in each of his last two games.
There’s not much to like with the Cowboys' offense since CeeDee Lamb went out for the season. Last week, we saw Brandin Cooks lead the team in targets as he had eight, with no other player having more than five, which was Jake Ferguson. Cooks has the experience to be the number one guy dating back to his years with the Saints, Rams, and Texans. With Trey Lance getting a significant number of snaps this week, it remains to be seen how this offense will perform, so there is significant risk with Lance. However, if he has any success, it will likely be because of Cooks.
Joe Flacco, Michael Pittman Jr, Brian Thomas Jr.
Joe Flacco may be making his last start in the NFL as the quarterback turns 40 years old next week. While he says he wants to play next season, it remains to be seen whether that will be the case or not. If it is his last time playing, it’s a perfect matchup, taking on a Jacksonville defense that Flacco torched earlier this season, throwing for 359 yards and three touchdowns. Michael Pittman Jr has had a disappointing 2024 season but can finish it on a high note this week after a 109-yard performance last week with a touchdown. The receiver saw 10 targets from Flacco last week, which led the team, as Josh Downs had a disappointing four targets for the Colts last week in the 45-33 loss to the Giants. Of the quarterbacks on this slate, Flacco and the Colts passing attack have as high of upside as any passing offense this week as Jacksonville is allowing the most passing yards per game. At just $5,400, he provides significant savings over Baker Mayfield, who is the other quarterback who would have a likely path to a 300+ yard game this week.
On the other side, Brian Thomas Jr.. continues to dominate for the Jaguars. He now has at least 75 yards in six straight games while having ten or more targets in five straight. Thomas has greatly benefitted from being the lone receiver left on this roster who can consistently produce, as Evan Engram, Gabe Davis, and Christian Kirk were all lost for the season. The Colts are coming off of a 171-yard, two-touchdown performance from Malik Nabers last week in a must-win game to keep their playoff hopes alive. It seems difficult to conceive that in Week 18, their pass defense will improve after a disappointing effort that was eliminated from the playoffs. In their first matchup, Thomas had 122 yards and a touchdown in one of his early season breakout performances.
Baker Mayfield, Mike Evans, Jalen McMillan
Baker Mayfield is on a different level right now. The quarterback has thrown for 280 yards or more in each of his last four games, and the team seemingly has not stopped when the game script indicates that they should just run the ball. In three of the last four games, the Buccaneers have won by more than two touchdowns, yet Mayfield threw for an average of 314 yards and four touchdowns. We all know that Mike Evans and the Buccaneers want to get him to 1,000 yards for the season to continue his consecutive 1,000-yard streak, as he has had at least 1,000 yards in every season of his career. However, they also need to continue to build McMillan as he progresses throughout his rookie career. McMillan has been a touchdown machine over the last four games, catching six touchdowns in those four games while having at least 50 yards in all four games. Most people who stack Mayfield are going to pair him with Evans, but this is a situation where instead of a run-back with an opposing team, you can easily pair him with McMillan, who remains too cheap at just $5,100.
Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams, Tyreek Hill
After Aaron Rodgers struggled in Week 17 against the Bills, most are just completely writing off the veteran quarterback heading into Week 18. However, this had been a player who was playing great football prior to that game, as he had 250 yards or more in three straight games, including a 339-yard performance against this Dolphins team back in Week 15. With this almost certainly being the last game in New York for Aaron Rodgers, he is just one touchdown away from 500, and the team has talked about what it would mean to get it to Davante Adams, who caught touchdowns 200 and 300 from Rodgers. Adams had scored a touchdown in four straight games prior to last week’s 40-14 loss in which the Jets were unable to move the ball. With the Dolphins having one of the best-run defenses in the NFL, expect the Jets to take a pass-heavy approach as they did back in Week 15.
While Tyler Huntley will start for the Dolphins this week, this may not necessarily be a bad thing for Tyreek Hill. Hill was great last week against Cleveland, as he caught all nine of his targets for 105 yards last week. Hill has had a disappointing season, but he’s projected to be rostered by just 2% of lineups despite his affordable $6,700 price point. In their first meeting, Hill had 115 yards and a touchdown as he had 14 targets. He did not practice on Friday, so it is something to keep an eye on because of an illness. If he were to miss, you could replace him with Jaylen Waddle, who is expected to return this week.
QUARTERBACK
This section represents quarterbacks who were not previously mentioned in the stacks section. While you can also stack these quarterbacks with their targets, they're just outside of the "top stacks" section or are better plays by themselves.
Kyler Murray- $6,000- 10%
Kyler Murray, at just $6,000, makes for an excellent GPP play this week. As mentioned earlier in the article, he has a significant financial incentive to run the ball this week. If Murray runs for 50 yards and a touchdown, he will receive a $750k bonus as his contract is incentive-heavy compared to most quarterbacks. Last week, we saw one of Kyler’s best games of the season as with no James Conner, the Cardinals took a pass-heavy approach, throwing the ball 48 times for 321 yards and a touchdown. Murray also added 32 rushing yards. This week, he gets a 49ers defense that has struggled against mobile quarterbacks. In their first meeting, Murray dominated rushing for 83 yards and a touchdown, and if he can combine the passing ability that he has shown over the second half of the season with the rushing upside that he did earlier this season, that is a player you’re going to need at $6,000 to be a GPP winner.
Running Back
Bijan Robinson- $8,500- 39%
In a must-win game against Carolina, expect the Falcons to heavily utilize Bijan Robinson this week. Robinson has seen a significant workload increase as he has 22 carries or more in four of his last five games and at least 20 total touches in all five games. Robinson has scored six touchdowns in his last five games while having at least 90 yards in every game. Facing a Panthers defense this week, the matchup could not be better for Robinson as the Panthers run defense is completely shattered. This is a team that has allowed 100 rushing yards or more to seven of the last eight running backs that they’ve faced. In their first meeting, the Falcons ran for a combined 200 rushing yards and three touchdowns between Robinson and Tyler Allgeier, back when he had a larger role with the team. The Panthers are now missing their top four middle linebackers, as they’ve just suffered too many injuries in their front seven to field a competitive roster.
Michael Carter- $4,700- 32%
With no James Conner, Trey Benson, or Emari Demercado, the entire backfield will turn to Michael Carter. While the Cardinals have had a disappointing season, we saw in Week 17 that they’re still playing hard. Carter had 13 carries for 70 yards after entering early in the game after James Conner’s injury. At $4,700, you’re really competing with running backs who are replacement guys due to team’s resting players. Carter has the most defined path and the most sustained success, and in a lot of these cases, teams are also resting offensive linemen, which will greatly hinder the chance of success for the offense. That’s not the case in Arizona. You’re getting a player who is a good pass-catching back, has an extensive history of being a starter back in New York, and overall should be in line for a significant role this week. Carter has seven receptions in the two games that he’s played this season, and if he can catch 3 to 4 passes while getting 14-16 carries, he’s going to quickly get to value.
San Francisco’s run defense has struggled as of late as they’ve allowed opposing running backs to run for 100 or more yards in five of their last six games as their defensive line has struggled against the run all season. With Dre Greenlaw now out for the year and De’Vondre Campbell suspended, the 49ers don’t have any linebackers outside of Fred Warner.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire- $4,100- 3%
With Kendre Miller and Alvin Kamara out this week, it’s very likely that the Saints will turn to Clyde Edwards-Helaire this week. The matchup is awful, as the Saints are taking on one of the league’s best-run defenses in Tampa Bay. However, the thinking here is that this could help Edwards-Helaire, as he had four targets last week on just 43% of the plays. The Saints have not used Jamaal Williams as a receiver in the two years that he has been with the team. If the Saints fall behind early, this is a scenario where Edwards-Helaire could see 70-80% of snaps and catch five or more passes. If that game script plays out, there’s a real opportunity at just $4,100 for him to exceed his salary, especially at just 3% rostered.
Rico Dowdle- $5,800- 9%
Rico Dowdle continues to produce despite Dallas’ disappointing season. Dowdle has 100 yards or more in four of his last five games, and while he was disappointing against Tampa Bay, everyone has been disappointing against the Buccaneers as of late. Last week against a very good Philadelphia run defense, Dowdle still had 104 yards despite a 41-7 loss. This is the most encouraging part about Dowdle is that even in a game that the Cowboys were down by 17 at half time the coaching staff did not abandon the run. With Trey Lance expected to see a significant amount of playing time this week, they’ll likely turn to Dowdle to run a balanced offense to help with Lance's evaluation this week. The way to beat the Commanders has been on the ground. Over the last two weeks, both Saquon Barkley and Bijan Robinson have had huge games against this defense, and on the year, they’ve allowed seven running backs to top 20 DraftKings points.
Fade:
Blake Corum- $5,600- 15%
There are a lot of issues with playing Blake Corum this season. First is the price. At $5,600, this is a crazy price for a completely unknown running back who is stepping into a starting position. When other running backs who are starting due to rest are $1,000 cheaper, you’re taking a risk here, with Corum being one of the highest-rostered players in this group. The second issue for Corum is that even in his limited appearances, he has not been impressive. Corum has averaged just 3.5 yards per carry, has not been involved in the passing game, and is largely getting interest this week based on his college success. The other issue for the Rams is that they’re sitting three of their top offensive lineman. Corum was unable to have success with their starting lineman, Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp, and Matthew Stafford, and is now going to be popular this week. It doesn’t make sense. Take chances on other players this week over Corum.
Wide Receiver
As a reminder, these are receivers who are not in the stacking section. Most of the top-end receivers are going to be listed in stacks; these are more under-the-radar type receivers. Refer to the chart at the bottom of this article to reference the quality of each play.
Drake London- $6,500- 15%
We’ve seen rookie quarterbacks find a receiver and lock onto them, and that appears to be what is emerging in Atlanta. London had 13 targets last week against Washington, with no other receiver having more than five targets in the overtime loss to Washington. In a must-win game, they get to face a Carolina defense that was exposed with no Jaycee Horn last week. Baker Mayfield threw for 359 yards and five touchdowns with this depleted defense that has one of the weakest pass rushes and now, without one of the best young corners in the NFL, does not have anyone who can cover some of the better receivers in football. London is a great pivot away from Bijan Robinson as well if you choose to fade the popular running back.
Jordan Whittington- $3,300- 3%
Choosing between Jordan Whittington and TuTu Atwell is going to be a critical decision. Both are great plays this week, as they should be the primary receivers for the Rams in Week 18. The reason that Whittington is the preferred play here is that there’s almost zero risk that they would bench the rookie to rest him, while Atwell still has a role in their primary offense. The second reason is that the Rams want to continue to get the rookie looks, as he had two games earlier this season with 60 yards or more when Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp were out.
Malik Nabers- $7,100- 22%
With the Eagles seemingly resting their entire team this week, Nabers should be in a great spot to once again have a big day. Nabers was dominant in Week 17 against the Colts, as he had 171 yards and two touchdowns in a 45-33 victory that cost the Giants the number one overall pick. Nabers has 10 or more targets in seven of his last nine games, and while he has not had the big game that he had last week, he’s consistently produced. The only way that he could be held back is if the coaches try to protect their draft position by limiting the explosive wide receiver, as Drew Lock is not going to care about the Giants’ future draft selection, given that it is unlikely he will be with the team next season.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba- $6,100- 13%
With the Seahawks eliminated from playoff contention, they’re adamant that they’re still going to be playing hard this week to finish the season strong. Facing a depleted Rams defense that will be resting their players in preparation for the playoffs, look for the Seahawks to continue to develop their future at the receiver position as Jaxon Smith-Njigba has emerged as the number-one target for Geno Smith this year. Smith-Njigba has 12 or more targets in two of his last three games as DK Metcalf has largely been irrelevant, failing to top 50 yards in three of his last four games, and Tyler Lockett is having the worst season of his career.
High Upside Cheap Receivers-
Marvin Mims Jr.-$4,600-2%
TuTu Atwell-$3,800-1%
Josh Downs- $5,300- 7%
Ricky Pearsall-$4,100-4%
Tight End
Zach Ertz- $4,000- 7%
Last week, we saw that this Commanders offense is a dynamic unit, and if Terry McLaurin struggles, they can find other options. We already mentioned Olamide Zacchaeus in the article, but with McLaurin shut down by A.J. Terrell Jr. last week, the team also turned to Zach Ertz, who had 72 yards and two touchdowns. Ertz has now scored a touchdown in four of his last six games, as he’s a primary red zone target for this offense. The downside is low as if McLaurin finds success; we’ve seen how he had just two targets in two of his last three games, but in terms of a cheap tight end having multiple touchdown upside, Ertz is likely that guy.
Brock Bowers- $6,600- 26%
If you’re paying up for a tight end this week and not starting Kyler Murray or Joshua Dobbs, Brock Bowers is the preferred option to Trey McBride. We mentioned that Bowers needs nine receptions to break the all-time tight-end reception record, surpassing Zach Ertz in 2018. Bowers has had 18 catches over the last two games, and he’s been the primary target for Aidan O’Connell, who has kept a narrow target share between Bowers and Jakobi Meyers.
Other Cheap Tight Ends:
Tucker Kraft- $3,700- 1%
Peyton Hendershot- $2,500- 5%
Juwan Johnson- $3,600- 1%
