Slate Overview- Week 13 Thoughts
I hope everyone had a Happy Thanksgiving as we prepare for the final third of the NFL season.
This is an interesting slate, particularly at the quarterback position, given how highly rostered Justin Herbert is going to be. It’s rare that we get a quarterback projected to be rostered in more than 15%, and we’re currently at 22% for Justin Herbert. All the reasons for success are there; the team is without J.K. Dobbins, facing an Atlanta Falcons defense that just allowed over 300 yards and four touchdowns to Bo Nix. However, with a player that is going to be rostered in more than 20% of rosters, it creates a very similar build throughout the remaining roster positions. With an underpriced Herbert, it’s going to allow spending for running backs and receivers.
This creates an opportunity that deviating from this build and taking a quarterback who has more upside than Justin Herbert could create an advantage this week against your opponents, especially if some of those high-end players struggle, which we’ve seen happen over the last several weeks, particularly at the running back position.
The other way to create an advantage is by targeting this Baltimore vs Philadelphia game. The roster percentage of these players is lower than it normally is because of the defenses that both of the teams have, particularly when it comes to stopping the run. However, with Baltimore having issues stopping the pass, there is a scenario where this turns into a shootout-type performance. On just a 10-game slate, there’s no reason that these players, who are some of the best in the NFL, are going to be rostered in as low of rosters as what they are currently projecting for.
Key Injuries for Week 13
- J.K. Dobbins will miss this week. Gus Edwards should get the first shot at taking over the backfield. He will likely split some carries with rookie Kimani Vidal. Vidal does offer some pass-catching ability that Edwards lacks. In his four games this season, Vidal has caught three passes in an extremely limited role. The rookie, at just $4k, could be someone to target as a punt play, while Edwards will likely be touchdown-dependent this week.
- Josh Downs will miss some time with a shoulder injury suffered last week. This should open the door for Michael Pittman Jr. to re-emerge as the team’s number-one receiver. At $5,200, he’s a strong value. Play more on him later in this article.
- Austin Ekeler is out this week with a concussion. The matchup is a difficult one for Washington’s rushing offense, but Brian Robinson should get an increased workload this week.
- Breece Hall is questionable this week with a knee injury. If he were to miss, Braelon Allen would vault up into a top play this week.
- Devonta Smith is questionable with a hamstring injury. It seems likely that he’s going to play based on Smith being a limited participant on Thursday and Friday practice, but if he were to miss, A.J. Brown would be a top play for Week 13.
Stacks
Justin Herbert, Ladd McConkey, Darnell Mooney
If you’re going to take Justin Herbert in a stack, you’re going to need to find somewhere to get a little bit different. With Herbert’s price being just $5,600 against a struggling Falcons secondary in a game where the Chargers are not going to have their lead running back, it should lead to plenty of opportunity for Herbert this week. The problem is he’s going to be rostered likely in 20-25% of rosters, as he’s currently projected for 22%. At wide receiver, the Chargers play is obvious here, as McConkey has averaged 103 yards over his last two games, topping 80 in both. McConkey is also going to be one of the most popular players on this slate at 22%, as he’s underpriced at just $6,100 this week. This stack will be popular in just about all contests as it provides enough savings to comfortably build out the rest of your lineup.
When it comes to Atlanta, the question is which target you want to go with. It personally seems pretty clear in the decision between Drake London and Darnell Mooney to go with Mooney this week. He’s $900 cheaper, going to be rostered in about half of the lineups as London, and has been better as of late compared to the second-year receiver. Mooney has 80 yards or more in three of his last four games while scoring a touchdown in two of them. He now leads the team in receiving yards ahead of London by one yard. For London, everyone is going to remember the 154-yard performance against Tampa Bay earlier this season. However, that was an overtime game that Kirk Cousins threw for 509 yards. That was one of just two games all season in which London topped 75 yards. With London getting all of the defensive attention, it has opened up opportunities and should be a spot where you can save some salary and have just as much upside this week.
Matthew Stafford, Puka Nacua, Taysom Hill
The Rams’ passing offense is fully clicking as they push to make the playoffs in the competitive NFC West. The big question for the Saints is what defense shows up this week after the bye. We’ve seen multiple instances where teams who have nothing to play for simply don’t show up after a bye. The psychological reasons are fairly obvious: players are human, and after a week's vacation, almost everyone is a little bit slow to their job after returning, especially if what they’re doing isn’t that important. The last two times we’ve seen this Saints defense, they’ve allowed 306 yards to Kirk Cousins and 395 yards to Jameis Winston. Stafford is a better version of Winston, with better weapons, and should easily be able to carve through this defense like a Thanksgiving Turkey. For Nacua, it took a week for him to get back into the rhythm of returning from his injury, but over the last three weeks, he has been dominant. Nacua has 98, 123, and 117 yards over those three games while averaging 8.3 receptions and 12 targets per game. The only criticism of Nacua that you could have over those last three weeks is that he only has one touchdown. However, he does lead the wide receivers in red zone targets, which should bode well for him that he is involved, and that should normalize at some point.
You could honestly go with either Alvin Kamara or Taysom Hill in this game, as those are the only two players on this roster who touch the ball enough to be in a primary stack. Prior to the bye week, we saw Hill have 15 touches for 188 yards and three touchdowns. This is all about leverage against the field play in the decision between Hill and Kamara. Kamara is projected to be one of the highest-rostered players on this slate, given Saquon Barkley’s dominant performance last week against Los Angeles. For Hill, he’s projected to be popular, but only about 14% compared to Kamara’s 30%. The ceiling game of Hill in a shootout seems higher in comparison to the other tight ends on this slate than Kamara’s ceiling compared to the rest of the running backs on this slate. Yes, Kamara had a six-touchdown game last season, but this is a new offense under Klint Kubiak where Kamara has just seven touchdowns all season, doesn’t have one in his last five games, and three of those seven touchdowns came in one game. It’s splitting hairs as they’re both great plays, and you could even fully game stack this with both, but Hill just seems the more likely of the two to have a GPP-winning performance if there is one to be had with this stack, while Kamara is likely the better stand-alone play which is indicated by his roster percentage.
Joe Burrow, Tee Higgins, George Pickens
Joe Burrow and the Bengals offensively are one of the hottest teams in the NFL. Over the last two weeks, Burrow has thrown for an average of 392 yards and a total of seven touchdowns in those games. To get that type of upside, at just $7k and a projected roster percentage of 2.5%, is almost automatic this week. The matchup against Pittsburgh is largely neutral to slightly unfavorable. They have played an incredibly weak schedule when it comes to opposing quarterbacks. For Pittsburgh, Dak Prescott is the best pure passer that they’ve faced, and he torched them for 352 yards and two touchdowns earlier this season. For Higgins, he’s quietly been fantastic over the last four games. Topping at least 75 yards in each of his last four games while scoring four touchdowns in the last four games. As he approaches a contract year, it is critical that Higgins has a big remainder of the season after 2023, which was the worst season of his career.
The last time that we saw George Pickens was in the snow in Cleveland, getting in a fight after the Steelers lost to the Browns. Pickens gets a fantastic matchup, taking on a Bengals team that has allowed six receivers to top 80 yards over the last five games. The issue for Pickens has been his red zone involvement this season, as he has just two touchdowns on the year, but the red zone targets for the Steelers are extremely narrow as Pickens leads the team with 15 red zone targets with the next closest player being Pat Freiermuth with just 8.
Under-The-Radar
Lamar Jackson, Mark Andrews, A.J. Brown
Lamar Jackson is currently projected to be rostered by just 1.9% of rosters as of Friday. The $8,000 price point is difficult to fit into your lineup, but only Jackson and Jalen Hurts have a 40+ point upside. Taking Jackson in these games where he is forced to run is typically the way that you want to do it. Jackson is a player who plays with his food a little bit. When it is a team that he respects, he has some of his best rushing performances. Against Buffalo and Kansas City, Jackson had two of his best rushing performances of the season. The Eagles have done a good job defending mobile quarterbacks as they held Jayden Daniels to just 18 rushing yards in Week 11, but Jackson is a different level of threat when combining him with Derrick Henry.
For some reason, DraftKings refuses to raise Mark Andrews’ price. After struggling early on in the season, Andrews has scored six touchdowns over his last seven games. Since Week 6, Mark Andrews is averaging 13.4 DraftKings points per game. At $3,900, he is a steal of a price this week.
A.J. Brown and the Philadelphia passing offense are in a dream matchup this week. Facing one of the league’s best-run defenses, the Eagles are going to need to throw the ball against Baltimore this week. The Ravens are allowing the most fantasy points, third-most yards, and third-most touchdowns to opposing receivers this season. We’ve seen what elite receivers can do against this team, as Ja’Marr Chase (58.4), Courtland Sutton (26.3), Cedric Tillman (28.9), Terry McLaurin (23.3), Ja’Marr Chase (44.3), Tee Higgins (29.3), and Xavier Worthy/Rashee Rice (both had 20.8) have topped 20 DraftKings points this week. At $8,300, he’s projected to be rostered in just 6% of lineups, which is far too low this week.
QUARTERBACK
C.J. Stroud- $6,400- 4%
It is now or never for C.J. Stroud, who has struggled this season. However, he gets to face one of the league’s worst pass defenses in Jacksonville, which he absolutely torched earlier this season. In their Week 4 meeting, Stroud threw for 345 yards and two touchdowns, which was just one of two games all season where he topped 300 yards. Last week, despite the loss to Tennessee, the offense showed moments, especially with Nico Collins, that it can get back to the team it was over the first several weeks of the season where it looked like Collins was going to win Offensive Player of the Year. Last week, against a good Titans defense, Stroud and Collins connected for 92 yards and a touchdown. If there is a concern about Stroud, however, it is that he is going on the road this week. He’s a player who, throughout his career, has not performed well on the road, seeing significant drop-offs in yards per attempt, completion percentage, and yards.
Anthony Richardson- $5,500- 9%
Anthony Richardson’s play last week was so much better than his overall stat line. Finishing with just 11/28 for 172 yards looks abysmal, but this was a player who did not get much help, as there were some massive drops and penalties committed by the Colts that wiped out several massive drive-ending plays. The good news for Indianapolis this week is that they get the Patriots’ defense, which should be the most favorable defense that the Colts have faced all season. Richardson has faced a gauntlet of some of the league’s best pass defenses this season, but we did see the upside in Week 11 against the Jets, throwing for 272 yards and a touchdown while rushing for an additional two touchdowns. That type of upside is second-tier on this slate, just below Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson. At $5,500, there is significant risk with Richardson, but because of that, you’re getting him at a lower price than other quarterbacks with that upside.
Running Back
Bucky Irving- $5,800- 6%
For the first time all season, Bucky Irving had more snaps than Rachaad White in a favorable matchup against the Giants. Irving dominated as he had 88 yards on 12 carries with a touchdown while also adding 64 yards on six receptions. Meanwhile, Rachaad White struggled as he had just 3.1 yards per carry while catching just one pass for 10 yards last week. It’s clear that Irving is the better running back for this offense, and that should lead to continued growth in Irving’s role as the season progresses. At $5,800, facing the league’s worst run defense in Carolina, Irving should be in line for a massive game this week.
Chase Brown- $6,200- 15%
This is just a misprice. Chase Brown, at $6,200, has averaged 27 touches per game over the last three games since Zack Moss went down to injury. As a receiver, Brown has at least five receptions in those three games, including a nine-reception game against Baltimore in Week 11. Taking on a Steelers’ defense that has allowed 18 DraftKings points or more in four of their last five games to Austin Ekeler, Nick Chubb, Tyrone Tracy, and Breece Hall. Going back to the strategy conversation at the top of this article, this is a scenario where you could look at Brown as a pivot compared to some of the high-end, higher-rostered running backs.
Saquon Barkley- $8,500- 3%
This is a matchup of the immovable object vs unstoppable force. Saquon Barkley has been absolutely dominant. Barkley has topped 100 rushing yards in five of his last six games, with at least 40 receiving yards in three of those games. Baltimore is allowing just 61 rushing yards to opposing running backs this season, which is the second-best in the NFL, and has not allowed a 100-rushing-yard performance since last season. The key to Barkley’s success is going to be off-tackle this week. The strength of this Baltimore defense is up the middle with Travis Jones and Michael Pierce as their two defensive tackles are a combined 700 pounds. However, the Eagles have the best tackle duo in the NFL, led by Jordan Mailata and Lane Johnson. Outside linebacker Kyle Van Noy is unlikely to play, which could force some additional pressure on the Ravens defense. If Barkley can get to the second level, a big play could occur, as the Ravens have had to move to Ar’Darius Washington at safety to help their pass defense. The problem is that Washington is 5’8’’ and 180 pounds, and if he’s asked to tackle Barkley one-on-one, that is going to be a problem. To get a player with Barkley’s upside at just 3% rostered is too low this week.
Tony Pollard- $6,300- 8%
Pollard has been volatile over the last couple of weeks, as when the Titans have fallen behind, they’ve been quick to abandon the run. However, Pollard dominated last week in a tough matchup against the Texans. He had 24 carries for 119 yards and a touchdown despite having just 9 carries in each of his two prior games. This week, he gets a far more favorable matchup and is still going completely underlooked at just 8% rostered. Pollard has over 20 carries in three of his last five games, has three or more receptions in four of his last five games, and is facing a Washington defense that is allowing the second-most rushing yards per game to opposing running backs.
Wide Receiver
As a reminder, these are receivers who are not in the stacking section. Most of the top-end receivers are going to be listed in stacks; these are more under-the-radar type receivers. Refer to the chart at the bottom of this article to reference the quality of each play.
Brian Thomas Jr.- $5,500- 14%
With Trevor Lawrence looking like he will return this week, this is a massive boost to Brian Thomas. The Jaguars receiving options are completely depleted as Christian Kirk and Gabe Davis are both on IR, so the Jaguars are going to start Thomas, Parker Washington, and Tim Jones this week. Thomas has been volatile this season, but at $5,500, he provides a nice upside as he has topped 80 yards in five games this season. With the Jaguars needing to throw the ball in what could be a high-scoring game this week, Thomas should see a significant increase in targets compared to earlier this season when the Jaguars had their full arsenal of receivers.
Michael Pittman Jr.- $5,200- 9%
There are not a lot of ways to save salary at the wide receiver position, but Michael Pittman Jr. is a cheap player who is elevated due to Josh Downs’ injury. Last week, Pittman had 6 of the 11 completions from Anthony Richardson. With other depth pieces Ashton Dulin out and Alec Pierce very questionable, Pittman should be the focal point of this passing offense and should see at least ten targets this week.
Jordan Addison- $5,300- 2%
If you’re looking for these mid-tier receivers, you’re looking for two things. You’re looking for players who are going underlooked and have the upside to be in a GPP-winning lineup. For Addison, the signs are trending up for a player who is coming off of a 162-yard performance with a touchdown last week against Chicago. Addison has at least eight targets in each of his last two games, which was something that he had done just once in his first seven games this season. With Justin Jefferson taking so much focus from opposing offenses, Addison is going to need to continue to step up and be a focal point in this offense over the remainder of the season.
High Upside Cheap Receivers-
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine- $4,300- 4%
David Moore- $3,500- 10%
Marquez Valdes-Scantling- $4,500- 2%
Tight End
T.J. Hockenson- $4,400- 15%
The tight-end pool on this slate is quite limited. Hockenson has dealt with injuries throughout the season, but last week, in his fourth game of the year, Hockenson finally had the breakout performance that he has shown in years past. Last week, Hockenson had seven receptions for 114 yards. Similar to Jordan Addison, the Vikings are looking for consistency outside of Justin Jefferson as he draws so much focus from opposing defenses.
Trey McBride- $5,800- 6%
McBride is in a tremendous spot this week. Facing a Minnesota defense that has had issues throughout the season in the secondary. While most of their struggles have been against wide receivers, as they allow the second-most fantasy points to the receiver position, they have faced a fairly weak schedule against the tight end position. The receiving tight ends that they have faced have performed well against the Vikings, as George Kittle, Tucker Kraft, Tucker Conklin, and Cole Kmet have all topped 50 yards this year. Last week, Trey McBride had 12 receptions on 15 targets. While he’s expensive, it is entirely doable to fit him in this week, and at 6% rostered, if you’re not going with one of the tight ends in the stacks above, McBride could be a great option.
Fade: Hunter Henry- $4,200- 11%
Hunter Henry is a player who continues to be popular due to his target volume and his role in this offense. Henry has at least five receptions in five of his last six games. The problem with Henry is that he has just one touchdown all season despite having 13 red zone targets this season. At 11% rostered, you’re just not getting enough upside and are paying for a floor that is not a winning GPP strategy.
