Slate Overview- Week 9 Thoughts- High Scoring
This is going to be one of the most fun weeks of the season. On the main slate, we have nine teams that have a team total of 25 points or higher. This makes it a very easy staking slate with this many opportunities. The key to this week is to ensure that you are factoring in the projected roster percentage as you build your roster. Typically, on a given week, you’re only going to see 3-4 games that are truly stackable with a potential shootout, which drives the roster percentages up in those given games. This week, as of Saturday, we’re seeing just one quarterback who is projected to be more than 10% rostered.
Games to Target:
- Green Bay vs Detroit
- LA Rams vs Seattle (LA Side)
- Miami vs Buffalo.
Games to potentially fade based on ownership. These players are not fades but instead just overall game stacks that are going to have most of the roster percentage.
- New Orleans vs Carolina. This game worries me simply because of the blowout factor. Alvin Kamara is projected to be around 40% rostered, while some of the Carolina options are also getting some love this week because of the Diontae Johnson trade and because of the 0
Key Injuries for Week 9
- Cincinnati is a mess this week. Both Tee Higgins and Zack Moss are doubtful. We mentioned it last week, but with Higgins out, people are going to look at Ja’Marr Chase as a top play this week. That’s a mistake, which we will get into further detail in the wide receiver section. Meanwhile, Chase Brown should see a majority of the volume for the Bengals in a favorable matchup against Las Vegas.
- DK Metcalf will miss this week with a knee injury. Noah Fant is also out for the Seahawks. This should force a significant amount of volume through Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Tyler Lockett. There is risk here, even in a positive matchup against the Rams, as last week we saw both Smith-Njigba and Lockett struggle against Buffalo in a 31-10 blowout.
- Carolina will once again start Bryce Young this week even as Andy Dalton returns from injury. The Panthers traded Diontae Johnson to Baltimore this week, which will leave them incredibly thin in terms of wide receivers. Both Xavier Legette and Jalen Coker should see an increase in the role this week.
- One big injury situation to watch is the health of Tony Pollard. Tyjae Spears has already been ruled out this week, while Pollard has not practiced Wednesday through Friday. If Pollard would miss this week, Julius Chestnut would become interesting in a very positive game script against one of the league’s worst run defenses in New England.
- Puka Nacua was a late addition to the injury report due to a knee injury. While he’s expected to play, it’s still a concern for any player that’s added late to the injury report.
Stacks
Top Stack
Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, Kyle Pitts
We saw this Prescott/Lamb relationship take time to develop last year and then when it clicked it won GPP’s for several weeks in a row. We may be approaching that again this week, as Lamb had 13 receptions for 146 yards and two touchdowns last week. The Cowboys are in desperation mode at 3-4 this season. With Ezekiel Elliott going to be inactive, they’re going to rely even heavier on their passing attack than they normally would this week. Atlanta has not faced a receiver even close to the caliber of Lamb, but the receivers that they have faced they’ve struggled against, as DK Metcalf, Diontae Johnson, Rashee Rice, and Devonta Smith, all had big games against the Falcons secondary.
For Pitts, he’s finally emerging as the player that most thought he could be when he was a top 5 pick in the 2021 draft. Pitts has at least 65 yards in each of his last four games and is facing a defense that was absolutely torched by George Kittle last week, allowing 128 yards and a touchdown to the 49ers tight end.
Josh Allen, Khalil Shakir, Tyreek Hill
The game that seemingly no one is talking about being a potential shootout this week is the Buffalo vs Miami game. It’s likely due to the recent history where the Bills won 12 of the last 13 games against Miami, with 8 of those being blowout victories. However, we’ve seen three of the last five meetings between these two teams, with a total score of over 60 points. Josh Allen has flown completely under the radar this season as he is consistently less than 5% rostered while still being third overall in fantasy points scored this season. Picking a receiver to stack him with can always be a challenge, but it appears that Khalil Shakir is emerging and excelling, especially with the team adding Amari Cooper, who is taking some attention away from the young receiver. Over the last two weeks, Shakir is averaging eight receptions for 86 yards per game.
For Tyreek Hill, he’s going to be a solid GPP play until DraftKings adjusts his pricing. There’s simply no reason that the player who was second in DraftKings points scored per game with Tua Tagovailoa last season is just $7,300. He needs to be in your player pool until he either has a breakout game or DraftKings raises his price.
Under the Radar Stacks
Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Matthew Stafford is going very much under the radar this week. At just 2% rostered, Stafford is coming off of a 279-yard four-touchdown performance last week and is now priced at just $5,700. This is a secondary that has allowed 250 passing yards or more in four of their last five games, as Brock Purdy, Daniel Jones, Jared Goff, and Josh Allen all topped 250 against this defense. For Kupp, this is all about the projected roster percentage shifting towards Puka Nacua and leveraging that to take the 31-year-old receiver this week. Kupp should draw a favorable matchup this week against former first-round draft pick Devon Witherspoon, who has seen a second-year regression after a very promising rookie season.
With no DK Metcalf or Noah Fant this week, both Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Tyler Lockett should be in consideration. However, the difference maker is the matchup, as Smith-Njigba is going to get to the lineup against undrafted rookie Josh Wallace. Wallace played collegiately at Michigan, where typically if you’re undrafted from the National Champion, the chances that you’re going to succeed are far lower than if you are from a small school that scouts just did not get enough evaluation on. So far, Wallace is proving that he simply is not an NFL-caliber corner thus far in his career, as the Rams are struggling to defend slot receivers this season.
Jameis Winston, Cedric Tillman, David Njoku, Ladd McConkey
We saw this last season when Deshaun Watson went out, and all of a sudden, the Browns passing offense was one of the elite units for several weeks under Joe Flacco. Last week, we saw Jameis Winston lead the Browns to a 29-24 victory against the Ravens while throwing for 334 yards and three touchdowns. Of the Browns targets, Cedric Tillman is the most intriguing simply because of the skillset and the draft capital that the Browns used on him in the 2023 draft. There’s a bit of a psychology game going on in Cleveland, as the GM and coaching staff are going to do everything they can to point toward the future and showcase their 3rd-round pick in the 2023 draft as a piece that the Browns can build around is something that could help keep their case for the team to retain the leadership for an additional season. Over the last two games, Tillman has 21 targets, and his price has not increased nearly enough to reflect that, as he is still priced at just $4,300. For Njoku, he also has 21 targets over the last two weeks and has topped 60 yards in each of those games.
Ladd McConkey had his breakout game last week with six receptions for 111 yards and two touchdowns. The Browns have struggled mightily against slot receivers this season as Greg Newsome II has taken a significant step backward compared to 2023. With the Chargers struggling to run the ball, expect them to once again look at their second-round pick receiver out of Georgia who is the Chargers most talented receiving option.
Jordan Love, Tucker Kraft, Amon-Ra St. Brown- very much a longshot
This could end up being one of the highest-scoring back-and-forth games of the season, and it would surprise no one. These are two of the best offenses in the NFL this season, and the way to beat Detroit is through the air, as they allow 265 passing yards per game. Jordan Love has been volatile this season when he’s been great. He’s looked like the best quarterback in the NFL as he’s thrown for four touchdowns twice this season, but his floor is relatively low given the lack of rushing upside that the quarterback has shown this season, averaging just 4.7 rushing yards per game. The thinking here for Love is that at $7,000, he’s largely going to be overlooked due to the injury that caused him to leave the game early last week. He’s currently projected to be just 1% rostered this week. Meanwhile, Tucker Kraft is another player largely under-looked at for all of the tight-end options. Kraft’s ceiling has been tremendous, as he has four touchdowns over the last four games. While he’s not a tight end who is going to have a significant amount of targets, he's a big-play tight end, averaging 14.3 yards per reception while catching a touchdown on 21% of his targets this season.
For St. Brown: with Jameson Williams suspended once again this week, Amon-Ra St. Brown will be extremely low rostered as he’s projected to be just 10% rostered due to his performance last week, where he only saw two receptions for 7 yards. St. Brown has had a disappointing 2024 season but has scored a touchdown in five consecutive games, which has kept his value and price high. St. Brown still has those ceiling performances, which is really what we’re looking for as he has topped 100 yards twice this season, and if this game shoots out, it will likely be because of St. Brown this week for the Lions.
Position Breakdown
The purpose of this section is to discuss how opponents are going to approach their lineups as well as the top plays at each position. Note a player that is not mentioned does not necessarily mean that he is a poor player. Oftentimes, when players are roughly the same each week, it's difficult to mention them in every article. Also, players listed in the Stacks section will not be listed twice down here, as we’ve already established the analysis for them.
QUARTERBACK
High-End Play
Jayden Daniels- $7,500- 2%
With all of the high-scoring stacking opportunities this week, Jayden Daniels is going completely under the radar at 2% rostered. In the team’s first meeting this season, Washington was very close to a breakout game only to be on the wrong side of variance as they kicked seven field goals, winning the game 21-18. Daniels showed last week against a very good Chicago defense that he is largely matchup-proof as he threw for 326 yards while rushing for another 52 on the day, alleviating any concern of still dealing with his rib injury that kept him out of Week 7. At 2% rostered, even the opportunity to have a multi-rushing touchdown game would have him pay off his $7,500 price tag.
Value Play
Bo Nix- $5,900- 3%
Why is Bo Nix going up against the league’s worst secondary, only 3% rostered when everyone loved him last week? Nix was tremendous last week against Carolina, throwing for 284 yards and three touchdowns while also rushing for a touchdown. This week, the only way for the Broncos to stay competitive will be on the arm of Nix, as they will have very little chance to run the ball against Baltimore, who have one of the league’s best-run defenses this season, while the Broncos have one of the league’s worst rushing offenses. The reason Nix is largely going to be overlooked is the lack of stacking options. You could stack him with Courtland Sutton, who had 100 yards last week, but Sutton is extremely volatile and, just the week prior, had 0 receptions on 0 targets in a game in which he saw 86% of the snaps.
Gardner Minshew II- $4,500- 7%
If you elect not to stack this slate, you can make some extremely competitive lineup builds with Gardner Minshew II this week. At $4,500, you really need two things to happen. While it’s easy to point to just a pure multiplier and say if he gets to 18 points, which is 250 yards and two touchdowns, you’re at 4x his salary, it doesn’t really work that way. You need him to do that, but you also need one of the high-end players to not have their ceiling game. For example, Lamar Jackson having a 4-5x performance would be difficult to come back from as people will have correlated lineups around them, meaning that those players in those games would also get to 4-5x, putting you very far behind for the week. Gardner Minshew II's path is for him to throw for 250-300 yards, while some of the high-end quarterbacks have down performances. Meanwhile, you’re able to load up on high-end running backs to have a completely different lineup build than the rest of the field.
Running Back
Kyren Williams- $8,000- 19%
With Alvin Kamara garnering 30% ownership projections this week, looking at another running back on the high end could make a lot of sense. At $8,000, Kyren Williams is an undervalued player in a very good matchup against Seattle. Seattle’s run defense has been amongst the worst in the NFL in 2024 as they have allowed three of the last four running backs they’ve faced to top 100 yards, with the only running back failing to do so being Isaac Guerendo, who had 99 yards. When it comes to the red zone, Kyren Williams is a workhorse who has scored in 10 consecutive games. He leads the team with 44 red zone opportunities, which is amongst the highest in the NFL this season. One downside for Williams has been that the targets have been unpredictable, but he does have three games with four or more receptions and is primarily utilized as a receiver in the red zone, which is going to be a more valuable target than a normal target because of the touchdown upside.
D'Andre Swift- $6,400- 16%
Swift’s price continues to be too cheap because of the struggles that the Bears offense faced early on in the 2024 season. Over the last four games, Swift has topped 100 total yards in all four of those contests while scoring a touchdown in each of those games. This week, he got a Cardinals defense that just allowed 147 total yards and a touchdown to De’Von Achane, which was the sixth time we saw a running back top at the 100-total-yard mark against this defense. At just 15-20% rostered this week, he’s a player who is a strong stand-alone option, as he can still have a big game even without a full game stack this week.
Tyrone Tracy Jr.- $5,500- 4%
If Tyrone Tracy Jr.’s roster percentage stays as low as it is, it would be somewhat surprising. It is almost as if people don’t realize that he was cleared of his concussion protocol and should be 100% healthy this week. The committee backfield is largely a non-consideration for the Giants, as Devin Singletary has just 5 and 2 carries over the last two games. Meanwhile, for the rookie Tracy, he has been excellent. He has at least 100 total yards in three of his four games as a starter this season while having at least 17 carries per game, topping 100 rushing yards in two of those four games. The primary reason that Tracy fell as far as he did in the NFL draft is that he is one of these old Covid-era rookies. Tracy just turned 24 years old, and there’s very little reason for the Giants to slowly bring him along this season. They need to figure out whether he is a guy they can build around, and they inevitably look to rebuild heading into next season. Facing a Washington defense that has been a team that we’ve targeted for most of this season, Tracy should be an excellent value play this week.
Derrick Henry- $8,300- 4%
Having some piece of the Ravens could make sense this week. After giving away two games that they should have won this season, their margin for error is quickly diminishing. Somehow, Derrick Henry only had 11 carries last week despite averaging 6.6 yards per carry, finishing the day with 73 yards against a good Cleveland run defense. The path to a GPP win is relatively simple here. The Ravens are at home and are 9-point favorites against Denver. If they cover that spread, which should theoretically be a 50% chance if the line is optimal, it will mean they’re winning by at least 10 points. In that scenario, it should provide a run-heavy game script for Baltimore this week and get Henry back to the 20+ carries that we saw earlier this season. In Ravens wins Henry is averaging 21 carries per game this season.
Wide Receiver
Chris Olave- $6,100- 18%
Chris Olave is a fantastic stand-alone option in this New Orleans offense this week. Due to the blowout potential, as well as Alvin Kamara and the Saints' rushing offense, it seems unlikely that Derek Carr, in his first return back from injury, has enough upside to win a GPP in a stack this week. However, for Olave, we have seen Carolina struggle against the number-one receivers lately. Last week, Courtland Sutton had 100 yards against this defense, while they allowed 15 or more DraftKings points to the position in each of their last six games. With Derek Carr back at quarterback, Olave’s value increases significantly. Olave has at least 80 yards receiving in each of his last three games with Carr as the Saints quarterback.
Calvin Ridley- $5,700- 11%
Even prior to the DeAndre Hopkins trade, we saw the Titans making an effort to get Calvin Ridley involved in this offense. Over the last three weeks, Ridley has 8, 9, and 15 targets. While last week was the first successful week, as he had ten receptions for 143 yards, the Titans should be able to throw the ball against a New England defense that is struggling. Last week, Garrett Wilson had 113 yards against this team, while we’ve seen a receiver have at least 75 yards in four of the last five games against New England. The only concern for Ridley here is that he did not practice all week, but his injury designation was removed on Saturday, indicating he should be as close to 100% as possible this week, but there’s always a chance that the injury reports aren’t completely accurate as missing all week of practice is strange for a player who is coming off of his biggest game of the season. Tyler Boyd seems unlikely to play for Tennessee, which should only help the receiver this week.
Fade: Ja’Marr Chase- $8,600- 12%
With no Tee Higgins, many people are going to be drawn towards Ja’marr Chase this week. However, this could very easily be a trap. Chase has not topped 100 yards in each of the last six games that Higgins has missed and is averaging just 43.8 yards in those performances. Last week, with no Higgins, Chase did catch nine passes but was able to amass just 54 yards. Without Higgins, the Bengals have no wide receiver that sparks any fear into opposing defenses and, therefore, can double or even triple-cover Chase to force the Bengals to look elsewhere. At $8,600, the price is just too high this week.
Other Receiving Options:
Jalen Coker- $3,600- 6%
Jalen Tolbert- $5,100- 2%
Jaylen Waddle- $5,500- 6%
Elijah Moore- $4,200- 3%
Keon Coleman- $5,400- 5%
Tight End
Sam LaPorta- $4,800- 3%
Sam LaPorta being this under-the-radar is somewhat surprising this week. While he has had a very disappointing 2024 season, there are some signs that improvement could be coming. Last week, the Lions threw the ball just 15 times in a dominant 52-14 win against the Titans. In that game, LaPorta had 6 of the team’s 15 targets, which was a season-high for LaPorta. This is a player who is averaging 13.6 yards per catch and is one of the more athletic tight ends in the NFL this season. At $4,800, he provides a nice upside while also providing savings compared to some of the higher options, such as David Njoku or Trey McBride.
Taysom Hill- $3,800- 2%
Taysom Hill should always be taken into consideration simply because of the multiple touchdown upside that he brings almost every time he touches the field, and he will have a couple of games per season where he seemingly breaks the slate. This could be that week in Week 9. With both Jamaal Williams and Kendre Miller out for New Orleans, if something were to happen to Alvin Kamara or if this game gets out of hand, it’s likely that we will see Taysom Hill getting goal-line opportunities with Derek Carr back this week. We saw Hill have 34 red zone opportunities in 2023, and while he has not had the same success under offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak, there’s still that opportunity this week.
Grant Calcaterra- $3,400- 4%
If you’re looking for an upside for a player under $4k who could break a long reception, it is likely Grant Calcaterra. With no Dallas Goedert again this week, Calcaterra is filling in for the same role as Goedert which is the big play tight end. Calcaterra is averaging 15.5 receiving yards per catch and had 55 yards or more in two of his last three games. He has three receptions longer than 25 yards on the year, and if he’s able to turn one of those into a touchdown this week against a bad Jacksonville secondary, he will easily pay off the $3,400 price point.