Slate Overview- Week 2 Thoughts
Injuries are the big story to the Week 2 season. This is going to aggregate roster percentage to very similar roster builds. Jordan Mason is projected to be over 50% rostered this week, which will be the highest rostered player in the history of this article. We’ve often written about thinking about fading players who are 30% or higher, but this is a different situation. This is a week where Jordan Mason is so cheap because of the injury to Christian McCaffrey that he is extremely likely to hit value. This is a scenario where you should either go with Mason in your lineup or have him in 0% of your lineups and just understand the risk that you’re taking on. With Mason, what this does is it will concentrate roster percentage up at the high-end salary players due to the value plays.
One strategy to differentiate yourself from the competition is to go with more of a balanced approach, ignoring some of the players who are going to be close to 30% rostered such as Rashee Rice, Deebo Samuel, or Breece Hall. One thing to be careful about this week is to not feel overconfident based on how easy lineups are to build this week. Stick to proper bankroll management, and don’t be afraid to take some chances by fading these guys who are propped up because of the values that exist due to the injuries.
Key Injuries for Week 2
- Christian McCaffrey has been placed on IR with an Achilles/Calf injury. Jordan Mason had 28 carries last week and is just $5,200 this week. Deebo Samuel and George Kittle are also tremendous values this week based on the available touches created by McCaffrey. While Mason had 28 carries last week, it was a positive game script, and if that game script changes, we could see more of a passing approach from the 49ers.
- Puka Nacua will miss this week as he’s been placed on IR. Cooper Kupp is going to be a near must-play this week after having 21 targets on Sunday Night. This is a position for Kupp where his price has not adjusted due to the timing related to the Sunday Night game finishing after the pricing for the following week already being complete. Therefore, he’s underpriced at $7,600. Kyren Williams, Demarcus Robinson, Tyler Johnson, and Colby Parkinson are all good value plays as well based on the pricing assuming that Nacua would play this week.
- Justin Fields looks like he will start for Pittsburgh this week. Fields is about as high-risk high-reward of any quarterback on this slate at $5,400. Last week, we saw Fields run the ball 14 times for 57 yards. At just 5% he’s an intriguing play in a favorable matchup.
- Kenneth Walker is doubtful this week. Zach Charbonnet is going to get the start, which at $5.8k is a decent value play this week. The only question for Charbonnet will be his popularity. More on Charbonnet in the running back section.
- Marquise Brown could miss the full season as he is dealing with a shoulder injury. For Kansas City, this we can expect their target share to be similar to last week which was to Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy, and Travis Kelce.
Stacks
Top Stack
Kyler Murray, Marvin Harrison Jr, Cooper Kupp
Most people are not going to want to target Marvin Harrison after his dreadful season opener. He’s currently projected to be 2% rostered which to get a player as talented as Harrison at 2% rostered is just too low. Given the narrative of Arizona not getting Harrison the ball, they’re almost certainly going to script some plays early with Kyler Murray saying it is the offensive coordinators job to get him the football.
For Kupp, this is a way to get a receiver who had 21 targets last week at a slightly lower roster percentage. With how high of volume Kupp gets, you don’t necessarily need to have Matthew Stafford stacked with him. Stafford could throw for 240 yards and 2 touchdowns, with Kupp still delivering over 100 yards and a touchdown based on his target share.
Under the Radar Stacks
Jayden Daniels, Malik Nabers
This is a weird one. You could add Terry McLaurin in this stack, but so much of Jayden Daniels’ value is based on his running ability as we saw last week. This is a stack that very few will have, as most will throw in some receiver in Washington. The Giants have major issues at linebacker, as they made a surprising move by benching Micah McFadden in Week 1 replacing him with rookie linebacker Darius Muasau. Now, both Darius Muasau is out which will bring Micah McFadden back into the starting lineup. McFadden led the NFL in missed tackles in 2023, and to be replaced by a 6th-round rookie is not a bode of confidence from the coaching staff that he has improved. The Giants will also be without starting cornerback Nick McCloud. Daniels should be able to run all over this Giants defense this week.
For Nabers, he’s facing the worst secondary in the NFL. Nabers had 7 targets last week, but has the big play upside almost any time he touches the field. Washington allowed four passing touchdowns last week two to Mike Evans and one to Chris Godwin. Targeting receivers against this defense will be a trend all season as Benjamin St-Juste, Noah Igbinoghene, and Mike Sainristill make up the worst secondary in the NFL.
Trevor Lawrence, Brian Thomas, Amari Cooper
The Browns are a mess, and this could easily be a season that starts to turn sideways on them. Cleveland put three key defensive plays on IR this week, and have now allowed 29 points per game over their last 8 games dating back to last season. This was a defense that started out as one of the best in 2023, but quickly has shown that it has issues in Jim Schwartz’ scheme. Last week, we saw Brandin Cooks’ speed cause issues for Cleveland as he caught the team’s lone touchdown in the 33-17 blowout victory. For Cooper, he only had 2 receptions for 16 yards last week, but the encouraging piece is that he had 9 targets. The Jaguars secondary is far worse than Dallas, which should open up opportunities for Cooper at an extremely low roster percentage.
Position Breakdown
The purpose of this section is to discuss how opponents are going to approach their lineups as well as what are the top plays at each position. Note, a player that is not mentioned does not necessarily mean that he is a poor play. Often times, when players are roughly the same each week, it's difficult to mention them in every article. Also, players listed in the Stacks section, will not be listed twice down here, as we’ve already provided the recommendation on them.
QUARTERBACK
High-End Play
Lamar Jackson- $7,700- 6%
For Lamar Jackson in Week 1 he had the most rushing attempts he has had since 2021. If you could guarantee 16 carries for Jackson this week, he would be the number one quarterback on this slate without question. However, the urgency to run the ball for Jackson is likely much different against Kansas City compared to this week facing Las Vegas. With the Ravens being 8 point favorites, for Jackson to be on a winning GPP lineup, you’re likely going to need the Raiders to get out to an early lead forcing Jackson to move the ball with his legs as it will be difficult for him to do enough with his arm to pay off his $7,700 salary.
The Raiders have major holes at linebacker and safety which could lead to a big game for Jackson if the game script can lead that way.
Value Plays
Justin Fields $5,400- 11%
Fields is the perfect quarterback to not stack with a receiver. All of his value is on the ground with the 14 carries that he had last week in his first start with the Steelers. This week, he’s facing one of the worst run-stopping units in the NFL as the Broncos have massive issues at linebacker starting Cody Barton and Alex Singleton. Last week, we saw Seattle run the ball for 146 including 30 yards and a touchdown from Geno Smith. With Russell Wilson’s return likely next week, this is Fields’ last chance to prove that the Steelers should keep him as their starter.
Other Options:
Brock Purdy
Daniel Jone
Running Back
High-End Play-
Breece Hall- $7,400- 28%
For Hall, despite a difficult matchup and a negative game script, he was still able to manage an overall solid performance against San Francisco. Hall touched the ball 21 times including 5 receptions for 93 yards and a touchdown. He’s such a dynamic running back both on the ground and through the air. This week, the matchup is not a simple one as the Titans shut down the Bears rushing game, but the Jets should be in a positive game script and Hall should be heavily utilized in this game. At $7,400 the price at least $600 cheaper than it should be.
Jonathan Taylor- $7,700- 3%
All things considered, Jonathan Taylor is too expensive, but at just 3% rostered in a very favorable matchup does have the upside to be a GPP winner this week. Taylor struggled in Week 1, but he was facing one of the league’s best run defenses as the Texans defense allowed just 3.2 yards per carry in 2023 and looks to be as good as last year’s unit. This week, the Colts will get to face the Packers who were absolutely shredded by Saquon Barkley who found the end-zone three times while amounting 132 total yards. We’ve seen Taylor have some of the biggest rushing totals in the NFL over the last several seasons.
Value Plays
Jordan Mason- $5,200- 57%
As of Saturday, we are projecting Jordan Mason to be over 50% rostered. While it’s unlikely he will have 28 carries again this week, he’s the only running back that the coaching staff has faith in as the 49ers are without both McCaffrey and Elijah Mitchell leaving just Mason and 4th-round rookie Isaac Guerendo.
J.K. Dobbins- $5,400- 7%
For J.K. Dobbins, we saw just how much better of a running back he could be this year than Gus Edwards. Dobbins looked completely healthy in Week 1 after returning from an Achilles injury. Dobbins had 10 carries for 135 yards and a touchdown while being on the field for 58% of the plays. Meanwhile, Edwards had only 26 yards on 11 carries. With the Chargers facing the abysmal Panthers defense, this could very easily the time that Dobbins starts to take over as the primary ball carrier if he continues to have the big play success.
Derrick Henry- $6,700- 9%
We spoke about Lamar Jackson in the quarterback section, and a lot of that remains to be true for Derrick Henry. We saw what J.K. Dobbins was able to do against the Raiders poor tackling linebackers and safeties. The Ravens have offensive line issues that hindered Henry’s upside in Week 1 against Kansas City, but if the Ravens get out to an early lead, we could see a significant amount of volume for Henry this week against this defense.
Fade
Zach Charbonnet- $5,800- 18%
Charbonnet will see the volume this week with Kenneth Walker being out, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that Charbonnet is GPP viable. Charbonnet has been a better running back as a complimentary running back rather than the primary back. In this three games that he has 14 or more carries, he is averaging just 3.2 yards per carry. Charbonnet is not a running back. Last week, despite Walker running for over 100-yards, Charbonnet had just 12 yards on 8 carries. He just has not shown the upside that you’d want to see to justify a $5,800 price tag.
Wide Receiver
High-End Plays-
Amon-Ra St. Brown- $8,100- 10%
If you’re trying to get some differentiation this week, targeting Amon-Ra St. Brown instead of a player like CeeDee Lamb could be a great strategy. St. Brown was largely shut down against Los Angeles this past week as he had just 3 receptions for 13 yards. Last season, St. Brown had just two games with 50 yards or less, and the 13 yards was the lowest since 2022. The Lions are going to need to rely on a bounce back from St. Brown as Jameson Williams will likely be limited this week dealing with an ankle injury. The Buccaneers should be throwing frequently in this game as the way to beat the Buccaneers is through the air as their run defense is one of the best in the NFL.
Ja'Marr Chase- $7,800- 7%
This goes back to trying to find a differentiation from the extremely popular players on this slate such as Deebo Samuel, Rashee Rice, and Cooper Kupp. The Bengals offense was miserable in Week 1. However, Joe Burrow has been a slow starter throughout his career as he has had some of his worst games in Week 1. The good news for the Bengals is that they get to face a Chiefs team that Burrow has had success against as Burrow has thrown for 250 yards or more in each of his four starts against Kansas City. With Tee Higgins still out this week, the Bengals are going to need to rely on Chase who did have 6 receptions for 62 yards last week despite the offensive struggles against New England.
Value Plays
Allen Lazard- $3,300- 11%
Allen Lazard paired with Aaron Rodgers showed that their chemistry still exists from their time together in Green Bay. In Week 1, Lazard had 6 receptions for 89 yards and 2 touchdowns. More importantly, he saw 9 targets from Aaron Rodgers. The Jets completed passes to just two wide receivers in this game as it was just Lazard and Garrett Wilson. At just $3,300 this is a situation where the role is greater than the price as his price has not adjusted due to the Monday Night game being played after the pricing was released.
Bottom of the Barrel-
You can take a chance on the following players if you need to save salary
Wan’Dale Robinson
Andre Iosivas
Ladd McConkey
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Tight End
Travis Kelce- $6,200- 6%
When looking at the high end of the tight end position, it really comes down to Travis Kelce or Trey McBride. While McBride may be safer, there is concern with McBride as he had just 9 red zone targets last year compared to Kelce’s 20. McBride also has some yards per catch issues as he is averaging just 9.7 yards per catch throughout his career and was just 6.0 yards per catch last week.
For Kelce, the risk is higher, but the upside should also be higher than any tight end on this slate. First of all, he gets to catch passes from the best quarterback in the NFL in Patrick Mahomes, and when it comes to the red zone he is a primary target. Kelce has multiple touchdown upside and does not have to deal with Kyle Hamilton this week. McBride is likely going to be 15-20% rostered, while Kelce is going to be less than half of that.
Isaiah Likely- $4,800- 3%
It’s a little surprising that Isaiah Likely is not seeing more love this week. While it’s unlikely that he’s going to emerge as the primary receiver in Baltimore this season, it’s not impossible for him to be a top target for this team. On the off-chance that he does become the number one or two target behind Zay Flowers, $4,800 is a tremendous price for a player who had 9 receptions for 111 yards and a touchdown last week.
Other Options:
George Kittle
Colby Parkinson
