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This article will be a high-level strategic article with some DFS Week 1 DraftKings and FanDuel thoughts now that pricing has been released. With still 30 days until the first main slate locks, there will be a significant change on a day-to-day basis between what looks good now and what is recommended in your lineup.
Key Changes for 2024
FanDuel has implemented new scoring for 2024. While they will still be a 0.5 PPR site compared to the full PPR on DraftKings, they have aligned to the bonus structure of DraftKings compared to years past. This season, you’ll receive a 3-point bonus if your quarterback throws for 300 yards or any player has 100 yards rushing/receiving. This is a sizable change for FanDuel, as given the lower scoring already due to 0.5 PPR, it’s going to add value to the elite running backs.
Quarterback
DFS Strategy
With FanDuel releasing a new pricing model, it will greatly impact the quarterback position. Over the last few seasons, it has been critical to favor quarterbacks with significant rushing upside, given the lack of a 300-yard bonus and the pricing differential being smaller on FanDuel than DraftKings from the top-end quarterbacks compared to the lower end. Typically, you’ll see the top-end quarterbacks in the mid-8k range, while the bottom tier is only $1,500-2,000 less than that. Unless a quarterback is massively mispriced in a given week, you’re often going to want to try to pay up for a quarterback when you can simply because of the expected outcome on a point-per-dollar basis compared to the bottom-tier quarterback. The savings that you would get to apply to a position elsewhere do not offset the risk incurred by the highest-scoring position.
On DraftKings, it is very different. DraftKings pricing traditionally is tighter, forcing every dollar spent to be agonized over and, therefore, often leads to cheaper quarterbacks coming into play. With the PPR scoring, it’s more important to ensure that the money that you’re spending is on players who are going to be getting those targets and receptions compared to FanDuel, where the 0.5 receptions do not matter nearly as much when it comes to sacrificing some salary to be able to spend up at the quarterback position.
Week 1 Initial DFS Thoughts
Jayden Daniels, Washington
Daniels' price looks very affordable at both $5,700 on DraftKings and $7,000 on FanDuel. Daniels has been tremendous in training camp thus far showing the dual threat play that carried him into winning the Heisman as well as being the number two overall pick this season. The matchup should be a favorable one, facing the Buccaneers who had one of the worst pass defenses in 2023. Turnovers could be an issue for Daniels, but they often hurt less than people fear, as it gets the ball back into the quarterback's hands and creates additional opportunities for the team to throw the ball. Daniels is going to be extremely popular as we stand today but could be a fade in GPPs depending on where his roster percentage ends up as it is still a rookie making his first start.
Josh Allen, Buffalo
Allen on FanDuel is going to be a problem. He’s going to be one of those players who you’re going to have to make a critical decision on as while the price is high at $9,200 on FanDuel and $8,000 on DraftKings, it is a very fair price against arguably the league’s worst secondary heading into 2024. Allen ran for 15 touchdowns last season, and with the team getting worse at the wide receiver position as they lost Stefon Diggs, replacing him with Curtis Samuel and Keon Coleman, expect more rushing upside from Allen this year in a favorable matchup against Arizona.
Matthew Stafford, LA Rams
Stafford gets to return to Detroit for the second time as an opposing quarterback as the Lions knocked the Rams out of the playoffs last season. Stafford, in that game, was tremendous, throwing for 367 yards and 2 touchdowns as one of the Lions' weaknesses is their pass defense, allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks last year. Stafford is cheap on FanDuel at $7,300 on the main slate but is not offered on DraftKings as FanDuel is including the Sunday Night game this year in their main slate offering.
Running Back
DFS Strategy
Trying to pick running backs four weeks in advance of a slate is almost impossible, especially for Week 1. With the pricing being released so early, injuries almost always come into play, leaving cheap running backs who were slated as backups in line for a significant role. The key to the running back position in most weeks is to ensure quality touches on FanDuel and DraftKings; you want reception upside.
Quality touches essentially are touches that lead to significant opportunities. With so many running backs splitting time these days, getting touchdown opportunities is more and more important. So, when picking a running back, you want it to be from a quality offense that has opportunities to score touchdowns, and when they’re in the red zone, they trust the running back enough to give him carries.
Week 1 Initial DFS Thoughts
Browns Running Backs
Cleveland is going to be an area of focus. While it would seem that Jerome Ford should get the nod to start the year, that’s not a guarantee. Ford was a boom-or-bust type of player in 2023, and if he struggles in camp, you could see D’Onta Foreman or Pierre Strong get more of a role heading into the season. Ford, at $5,500 on DraftKings and $6,200 on FanDuel with a strong camp, would become a strong play heading into Week 1 if we know he’s going to have a primary role.
Tony Pollard, Tennessee
Pollard is really interesting in his first game in Tennessee. They are taking on a Bears defense that allowed the 8th-most fantasy points to opposing running backs and still has some issues on the defensive line, most notably up the middle. Tennessee’s offensive line was horrendous last season but should be much improved with spending first-round picks each of the last two years on Peter Skoronski and JC Latham. Skoronski had always been a left tackle, but the Titans moved him to guard in his rookie season last year. Brian Callahan is moving from Cleveland to Tennessee; he’s the league’s best offensive line coach, so expect significant improvement from this unit in 2024.
Aaron Jones, Minnesota
Jones seems to be cheaper than he should be on FanDuel. At just $6,800 on FanDuel, Jones is a player who ended the 2023 season with five consecutive 100-yard performances. The question for Jones has always been whether he can stay healthy, as he played in just 11 games last year. But in Week 1, and with much less competition surrounding him, Jones should be in a prime position to see 15 touches, who, at $6,800, could easily get to value against the Giants, which allowed the third-most rushing yards per game in 2023 and continue to have linebacker issues heading into the 2024 season.
Wide Receiver
DFS Strategy
Wide receiver is another position that can change significantly between the start of training camp and the first week of the season. The big thing to monitor heading into the 2024 season is roles and how rookies are doing in particular. Someone like Malik Nabers is cheap on both DraftKings ($5,900) and FanDuel ($6,300) that could be intriguing if he shows that he has a role when the number one offense is on the field.
Week 1 Initial DFS Thoughts
Mike Evans, Tampa Bay
Evans continues to be an excellent GPP play each week. At $7,300, the vibes out of Tampa Bay are relatively stable. They seem to have their quarterback in Baker Mayfield, but more importantly, Evans has carved out a niche as Mayfield’s top receiver with 1,450 yards and 14 touchdowns last season.
Bills Wide Receivers
Which Buffalo receiver is going to emerge throughout the preseason? Curtis Samuel, Khalil Shakir, and Keon Coleman are all extremely cheap heading into the season. Shakir could be the upside play for GPPs. At the same time, Curtis Samuel seems to be in line for a significant amount of targets, similar to the role he played when Terry McLaurin was out in Washington, only with a significantly better quarterback situation.
Colts Wide Receivers
We’ve seen our first injury throughout the spring in Josh Downs, who is out 4-6 weeks with a high ankle sprain. This should open up opportunities for Michael Pittman Jr to receive an even greater percentage of the targets if Downs were to miss Week 1. Pittman had 156 targets last season, which was ninth in the NFL, despite the turnover at the quarterback position for the Colts. The one concern here will be whether he and Anthony Richardson can get on the same page, as they only played two full games together last season, with Pittman failing to top 50 yards in each of them. Something to watch in the preseason but could become more of a cash game play than a GPP play if he becomes popular because of the Downs injury.
Chargers Wide Receivers
One thing to monitor throughout the spring is the Chargers. Everyone is down on them because of the hiring of Jim Harbaugh and the expectation of being a run-first offense, given the departures of Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. However, the pricing certainly reflects that. You have Justin Herbert questionable for Week 1 with a plantar fasciitis injury, and Ladd McConkey can’t stay healthy, but for how cheap players such as Joshua Palmer or Quentin Johnston are, if either of them do anything in the preseason, expect there to be some interest heading into Week 1. Especially if no value is created due to a running back injury.
Cardinals Wide Receivers
What if Marvin Harrison Jr. starts slow? The expectation is that the wide receiver is as NFL-ready as any player this season, but we must remember that he is just 21 years old. What if it takes a game or two to adjust to the NFL? This could open opportunities for a player like Michael Wilson or Greg Dortch, who are both extremely cheap as value plays heading into the season. Harrison has been embroiled in a legal back-and-forth with Fanatics regarding autographs that, at the very least, has to be a headache for the rookie. Even if he shines in the preseason, taking Wilson, who has shown upside in the past as a GPP play, could have a nice payoff, as Harrison won’t be seeing the same coverages, defenders, or focus in the preseason as he will in the regular season.
Tight End
DFS Strategy
Tight End is always tricky, and it largely depends on the site. Historically, the pricing disparity between the high-end and low-end tight ends has been greater on DraftKings than on FanDuel.
On DraftKings, we are often stuck looking at a player who is $4.5k or cheaper simply because of the upside of other players at other positions compared to tight ends. This is a great cash game play and can work in most GPPs, but being different from the rest of the field can be a viable strategy as you’ll get the higher-end tight ends at a lower roster percentage compared to FanDuel most of the time. There is not a magical solution each week, but know that if you’re gravitating toward a sub-4k player, odds are the rest of the field is also gravitating towards that player as a cheap option, hoping that the tight end can find the end-zone.
On FanDuel, it’s a little bit different. Here, there are no concerns about the roster percentage, as historically, you could find ways to pay up for that star power tight end. The way to look at it here is typically on a 2 vs 2 option or even 3 vs 3. If you’re only playing one lineup, build multiple, one with the high-priced tight end first, and then take that player out for a cheaper tight end that you may be ok within that week. See if you can drastically improve your lineup anywhere with that extra savings from downgrading the tight end while comparing the lineup options in that 2 vs 2, which becomes much more easily digestible than a full lineup comparison.
Week 1 Initial DFS Thoughts
Pat Freiermuth, Pittsburgh
Freiermuth is interesting simply because of a lack of options for the Steelers as they’ve lost their possession receiver in Diontae Johnson, who left for Carolina this offseason. Freiermuth is entering that historical sweet spot for developing tight ends as he is in his age-25 season and will look to rebound from an injury-plagued year that caused him to average just 25 yards per game. The team has now moved on from Kenny Pickett and brought in both Russell Wilson and Justin Fields, both of whom have at least some history of involving the tight ends as we saw Greg Dulcich become fantasy-relevant last season for Denver, while Cole Kmet has had upside games with Justin Fields over the last two years. At just $4,400 on DraftKings and $5,300 on FanDuel, he’s a value player you could be looking towards on Week 1.
Kyle Pitts, Atlanta
The big focus at the tight end position this season is going to be on Kyle Pitts. The Falcons have brought in Kirk Cousins, which is a massive upgrade compared to Marcus Mariota and Desmond Ridder whom Pitts has had to deal with throughout his career so far. If we look back to his rookie season with Matt Ryan, Pitts had his best season with 110 targets and 1,026 yards. Now, catching passes from Cousins, who elevated T.J. Hockenson’s play in Minnesota, Pitts should be in a prime position to once again emerge as that rare player that caused him to be the 4th overall pick in 2021. On FanDuel, he’s a little too expensive at $6,300, but on DraftKings at $4,600, expect him to be the most popular tight end in Week 1.
Evan Engram, Jacksonville
Engram is interesting heading into Week 1. The Jaguars are going to look for Engram to continue to build off his 963-yard season last year, as they let Calvin Ridley head to intra-division foe Tennessee this offseason. This should open up more opportunities, especially early for Engram as rookie Brian Thomas may need time to get acclimated to the NFL. We know that Christian Kirk can be volatile, and this should be a high-scoring game taking on Miami, which will lead to plenty of opportunities, while some may look towards other higher-end players at the top of the board and simply pass over Engram.
