Contrarian means opposing or rejecting popular opinion; going against the current practice. Being a contrarian in fantasy football is difficult because you’re taking a risk, but it can be a winning strategy. Contrarian is where the big money is made within DFS, especially in large tournaments because you’ll submit more unique lineups than your competitors.
Mix one or two of these players within a lineup to maximize individuality.
Do not create your entire lineup based on the contrarian picks below.
The key for charts:
- Player = recommended contrarian play
- Opponent = Home or away and the opponent
- FD Roster % = This week's FanDuel roster percentages
- FD Salary = FanDuel salary to roster the player
- DK Roster % = This week's DraftKings roster percentages
- DK Salary = DraftKings salary to roster the player
Contrarian Quarterbacks
Jared Goff was mentioned in this article last week, and he rewarded people with a 412-yard passing performance with 4 TDs. Goff has thrown for multiple TDs in seven of his previous eight games. He’ll face a Colts defense ranked 21st against the pass. The Colts have allowed an average of 25 PPG to their last four opponents.
Mike Evans returning to the lineup is music to Baker Mayfield’s ears. Mayfield averaged two TD passes a game without Evans in the last three games and 2.6 TDs per game with Evans this season. Mayfield has scored 26 TDs in 10 games and faces a Giants defense, allowing opposing QBs the second-best QB passer rating in the NFL.
Bo Nix has accounted for 10 TDs in his last four games, including four last week. Nix has averaged over 257 passing yards and 10 rushing yards in the previous four games. He’ll face a Raiders defense ranking 26th against the pass, and all three starting CBs haven’t practiced this week due to injuries.
Tua Tagovailoa has progressed since returning from injury, culminating in three TD passes and 288 passing yards last week. He’s thrown for six TDs against only one INT in his last three games. Tagovailoa gets to play a Patriots defense ranking 28th against the pass. Last week, the Patriots defense allowed Matthew Stafford to throw for 295 yards with four passing TDs.
Contrarian Running Backs
Tyrone Tracy Jr.. has earned 17 or more touches in five of his last six games and averaged 112 total yards in those five games. The Giants’ change at starting QB should motivate them to lean even more on Tracy. He’ll face a Tampa Bay defense ranking 19th against the run and have averaged 143 rushing yards allowed over their last four games.
The Tampa Bay backfield is a full-blown committee. Rachaad White and Bucky Irving had 16 touches last week, but Irving had nine more during the previous two games. Irving is averaging 0.55 more expected yards per attempt than White and dominates the rushing TDs, while White is a more efficient receiver with more receiving TDs. The game script should favor the Buccaneers leading the Giants, providing Irving with more rushing opportunities.
It sounds like Isiah Pacheco will return to the field this week after breaking his leg in week two. Kareem Hunt will still be involved, so don’t expect Pacheco to get a 79% snap share like he had in week one. However, the Chiefs are coming off their first loss of the season, and Hunt is one of the least efficient runners in the NFL. He’s averaging -0.48 yards under expectation per rushing attempt. They’ll face a Panthers defense allowing the most fantasy points to RBs. Pacheco getting more touches than people expect against the worst defense is a fun contrarian option.
Jaymyr Gibbs is getting the majority of snaps in the Detroit backfield, which is why David Montgomery is a contrarian option most weeks. Montgomery has scored three TDs in the last two games and 10 TDs overall this year. He’s averaged over 82 yards over his last three games as well. Montgomery has a high floor and faces a Colts defense, allowing the 15th most fantasy points to opposing RBs.
Contrarian Wide Receivers
Jameson Williams has averaged over 13 yards per target on the season, and he’s finally developing into the player they need on offense. In the last two games, Williams has averaged four receptions and 89 yards per game. The Colts pass defense is ranked 21st in the NFL, and they don’t have a talented secondary.
Terry McLaurin has been up and down this season. Two multiple TD games and five games with over 97 receiving yards, but he’s also had four games with less than 25 receiving yards. McLauren has bounced back after most of his low-productive games this season, and last week, he was held to only 10 receiving yards. He’ll face a Dallas defense ranked 23rd against the pass and they’re not motivated with no playoffs in sight.
Nico Collins played well in his first game back from injury, with 54 yards on seven targets. He had a 76-yard TD reception called back due to a penalty, but it showed he’s fully recovered from his hamstring injury. The Titans’ defense ranks 19th against the pass but ranks 4th in fantasy points to WRs. However, just last week, the Titans allowed Justin Jefferson to gain 81 receiving yards and Jordan Addison 61. PFF ranks Collins as the top WR in the NFL.
Josh Downs has earned at least 60 receiving yards in seven of his last eight games and scored a TD in half of those contests. It’s a true testament to Downs’ ability when you factor in multiple starting QBs in that timeframe. Detroit’s pass defense ranks 2nd in the NFL, but they allow the 15th most fantasy points to WRs. The Lions have four CBs on the injury report, with Ennis Rakestraw Jr. out, Terrion Arnold and Emmanuel Moseley questionable, and Carlton Davis practicing in full. The game script should favor Downs, with Detroit being heavily favored.
New OC Thomas Brown utilized D.J. Moore efficiently in his first game, coordinating the offense. Moore caught all seven targets and produced his third-highest yardage game of the season. He’s due for a big game as he’s been scoreless in his last five games and didn’t reach 63 receiving yards in any of those contests. The Vikings' defense ranks seventh against the pass, but solid offenses have been able to move the football against them. Minnesota’s secondary is the weakest part of the defense. Also, Moore has produced at least 51 receiving yards in all four career games against Minnesota.
Last week’s cheap WR contrarian option was Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, and he produced 117 receiving yards and a TD. Westbrook-Ikhine has scored a TD in five of his last six games and has averaged five targets per game over his last five games. He’s a cheap option again this week with a salary of only $5,500 in FanDuel and $4100 in Draftkings.
Contrarian Tight Ends
Evans returning to the lineup will make Cade Otton no longer the number one option in the passing game, but that’s why he’s available as a contrarian play. Otton has averaged 10 targets per game over the previous four games and was the focal point of the passing game. However, he averaged seven targets per game in the four games prior. Otton is consistently involved in the passing game, which speaks to his five TD receptions in his last five games.
Sam LaPorta is a full practice participant after missing the game last week. After a slow start to the season, LaPorta has been progressing recently as he’s averaged five targets per game in his previous three games, which allowed him to produce two TD receptions and average 47 receiving yards. LaPorta will play a vulnerable Colts defense, allowing the third-most fantasy points to TEs this year.
T.J. Hockenson’s snap share has slowly increased as he’s recovering from knee surgery. Hockenson has averaged over five targets per game this season after averaging over eight targets per game in 2023. Chicago’s defense has lost multiple starters due to injuries and isn’t as strong as early in the year.
Brock Purdy not playing will change the game plan for the 49ers. Expect a run-heavy scheme with a short passing game and play-action shots. George Kittle thrives in all of those areas, and he’s averaged 70 receiving yards and almost one TD per game this year. Green Bay will be missing Jaire Alexander and Edgerrin Cooper, which helps Kittle’s cause.
Contrarian Team Defenses
The last time the Raiders faced Denver, they turned the football over three times, scored 18 points, allowed three sacks, and the Broncos scored a defensive TD. The Broncos defense is a top-five unit on the season, while the Raiders offense ranks 31st. The Raiders' top two RBs haven’t practiced yet this week and listed as doubtful to play.
The Panthers have won two games in a row, but they’re averaging 22 PPG and 276 offensive yards in the process. Carolina’s offense ranks 30th in the NFL, and the Chiefs defense generates the fourth-most pressure in the league. Kansas City should be hungry as they’re coming off their first loss of the season.