Contrarian means opposing or rejecting popular opinion; going against the current practice. Being a contrarian in fantasy football is difficult because you're taking a risk, but it can be a winning strategy. Contrarian is where big money is made within DFS, especially in large tournaments, because you'll submit more unique lineups than your competitors.
Mix one or two of these players within a lineup to maximize individuality.
Do not create your entire lineup based on the contrarian picks below.
The key for charts:
- Player = recommended contrarian play
- Opponent = Home or away and the opponent
- FD Roster % = This week's FanDuel roster percentages
- FD Salary = FanDuel salary to roster the player
- DK Roster % = This week's DraftKings roster percentages
- DK Salary = DraftKings salary to roster the player
Will Levis was on the injury report, but after coming off a bye week he's more recovered from the injury in Miami and will be starting on Sunday. Levis has more intrigue than the market and salary cost indicate. He's run for 36 or more yards in half of his games this season. Levis averaged 193 passing yards over the initial three games of the season while facing all top 12 pass defenses. The Colts'' defense ranks 29th in pass defense and they're allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing QBs.
Jordan Love ranks fourth in the NFL in TD percentage, tied for 10th in yards per attempt and second in yards per completion. The Green Bay offense is designed around passing the football, and Love is the conductor. Romeo Doubs will return to the lineup in some capacity and Christian Watson is questionable to play. Both will only enhance Love's production from the past few weeks. He'll face a Cardinals defense ranked 23rd against the pass but ranks only 27th in generating pressure. Arizona allows the 11th most fantasy points to opposing QBs, and Love will play them in Green Bay.
The Saints' defense ranks ninth in pass defense and allows the fifth-least amount of fantasy points to QBs. Baker Mayfield ranks second in the NFL in TD %, third in completion %, and third in passer rating. He's rushed for two TDs and 107 yards as well. Mayfield has scored six total touchdowns in the last two games. The matchup appears to be strength against strength. However, the Saints will be without starting S Will Harris and LB Pete Werner, which gives the edge to a red-hot Mayfield in this matchup.
Dallas has the 30th-ranked run defense in the NFL and they're allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to RBs. Micah Parsons and Eric Kendricks won't play on Sunday, which makes a poor run defense worse. David Montgomery has scored a TD in every game this season and earned a minimum of 70 yards. He could have a monster game against a bad run defense.
Rhamondre Stevenson won't play this week, which allows Antonio Gibson to be an option as a cheap contrarian play. Gibson ranks fourth in the NFL in rushing YPC over expectation. The Patriots offense will be different with Drake Maye at QB, but Gibson could be a safe check-down option in the passing game and provide stability within the offense by running the football.
Rachaad White was downgraded from a limited practice participant to not practicing as the week progressed due to a foot injury. He's listed as doubtful. If he's inactive, then Bucky Irving will take over the backfield on Sunday and should earn the main share of the backfield touches. Irving has been more efficient than White, so he could be an asset to the Buccaneers offense and see a healthy volume of touches.
Week five was Alvin Kamara's worst game of the season and now he's an option to be contrarian. Kamara started the season with four straight games of over 100 total yards and scored six touchdowns. Taysom Hill won't play on Sunday, which eliminates Kamara's main competition in this backfield. Rookie Spencer Rattler will be starting at QB and it's in the Saints' best interest to make things more comfortable for him by leaning heavily on Kamara.
Chris Olave has a low roster percentage because Spencer Rattler is a rookie being forced into action. However, Rattler said this of Olave “Man, dude's different. I make it a key point that when he's in, get him the ball.” Before week 5, Olave had three straight games of more than 80 receiving yards. Hill is out and Rashid Shaheed was limited in practice, which could force more targets Olave's way. The Buccaneers have been allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to WRs this season and both of their safeties are limited in practice due to injuries.
The Drake Maye era begins this week in New England. Ja'Lynn Polk was drafted in round two to be a weapon for Maye and Polk is third on the team in targets and second most targets among WRs. Maye should have more of a connection with Polk than any other receiver on the team based on getting second-team reps and rookies tend to form stronger bonds. Polk earned 13 combined targets in the last two weeks and could earn a better target share moving forward. He could be the cheap contrarian play in a lineup full of studs.
Michael Pittman Jr. and Josh Downs both practiced on Friday after many thought they wouldn't play on Sunday. If they're both active, then don't use this play. But I wonder if some gamesmanship is going on after there was talk of Pittman going on injured reserve just two days ago. Targets could be available in this offense and Adonai Mitchell earned seven last week. While Alec Pierce has made a few splash plays, Mitchell has earned more targets. If Downs is inactive, then Mitchell becomes a stronger play who is cheap and will help you build better options at other positions.
Jameson Williams has started to live up to his first-round pick pedigree in 2024. He's produced at least 94 yards or a TD in every game but one this season. He'll face a Dallas defense that is only average in pass defense this year. However, Parsons won't play, DaRon Bland was downgraded to not practicing on Friday and four other defensive backs are on the injury report.
The Denver Broncos might have the best trio of CBs in the NFL. Their defense allows the least amount of fantasy points to WRs and the Chargers are playing on the road. However, Ladd McConkey is underrated. PFF ranks him the 11th-best WR on the season and tied for the 6th-best receiving grade. McConkey leads the Chargers in targets and has earned six or more targets in all but one game this season. Denver's run defense ranks fourth in the NFL, so the Chargers won't be able to run the football with ease either. McConkey is a good value for his price and coming off of career highs in receptions, and yards, and tied for his career high in TDs and targets.
Last week Dontayvion Wicks was one of the highest-owned WRs and many were disappointed with only two receptions on seven targets. Wicks has 20 targets in the last two games along with a 76% snapshare, which leaves optimism. Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson returned to practice this week, but it's difficult to envision either being a large part of the passing game plan. Tucker Kraft was limited due to a groin injury. Additionally, Luke Musgrave is headed to IR. Wicks scored a TD every other week this season and didn't score in week five. Last week's darling is a good contrarian option in a very good passing offense.
Earlier I spoke to Mayfield as a contrarian option as he's been on fire with six TDs in the last two games. Cade Otton has benefitted in that offense producing 44 or more receiving yards in three straight games and 21 targets over that same period. Otton has scored a TD in two of his last three games against New Orleans. If White misses this game, it should only help Otton's chances.
During week five Kyle Pitts set a season-high in receptions, receiving yards, and targets. The rapport with Kirk Cousins is growing and it could produce well against a bad Panthers defense. Carolina ranks 31st in pass defense and 32nd in pressure rate. The Panthers are allowing the 10th most fantasy points to TEs this season. Pitts is a discount TE who could have a big upside in week six.
A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith are both playing on Sunday, which explains the low roster percentage for Dallas Goedert as people anticipate his usage to diminish. Goedert has earned three or more receptions and 31 yards or more in every game this season. His best game of the season came with Smith playing as well, so it wasn't due to an absence of other quality targets. The Browns' defense will be without both starting safeties and Denzel Ward is questionable to play. The Eagles could have a big game passing and Jalen Hurts isn't going to forget the rapport he's earned with Goedert the last few games.
Brock Bowers should be the top DFS option this week, which makes it a shock he's available to be contrarian. The Raiders will be without Davante Adams and Michael Mayer. Jakobi Meyers is questionable with an ankle injury and Zamir White is questionable with a groin injury. The Raiders gave Bowers 12 targets last week and they may have to force-feed him more targets on Sunday because they have no other skill players close to as valuable.
The Browns have scored 18 or fewer points in every game this season and have yet to gain 300 offensive yards in a game. Deshaun Watson has been sacked seven more times than the second-most QB in the NFL. He ranks 28th in the NFL in passer rating and the Browns ranked 32nd in expected points added offensively. The Eagles' defense has been inconsistent this season, but they don't have to be consistent to crush this Browns offense.
New England ranks ninth in points allowed, despite facing two of the top four offenses in the NFL. Houston's offense isn't as lethal in 2024. They rank 19th overall and 19th in points scored. However, Houston won't have Nico Collins or Robert Woods in this game. Joe Mixon is questionable as he's struggled to return from an ankle injury. The Patriots' defense carries a cheap salary while playing at home against an offense playing without a star and underwhelming in 2024.