Contrarian means opposing or rejecting popular opinion, going against the current practice. Being a contrarian in fantasy football is difficult because you’re taking a risk, but it can be a winning strategy. Contrarian is where the big money is made within DFS, especially in large tournaments, because you’ll submit more unique lineups than your competitors.
Mix one or two of these players within a lineup to maximize individuality.
Do not create your entire lineup based on the contrarian picks below.
The key for charts:
- Player = recommended contrarian play
- Opponent = Home or away and the opponent
- FD Roster % = This week's FanDuel roster percentages
- FD Salary = FanDuel salary to roster the player
- DK Roster % = This week's DraftKings roster percentages
- DK Salary = DraftKings salary to roster the player
The Packers’ pass defense has looked solid against the Titans and Colts. However, they were vulnerable against teams with solid QBs the Eagles and Vikings. Matthew Stafford will be the best QB they’ve faced this season, but the Packers won’t be healthy. Jaire Alexander missed the last game and has been limited in practice this week along with Kenny Clark. Green Bay had two other starting defenders miss practice on Thursday, which could make them short-handed on Sunday. Stafford has looked more comfortable the last two games and played well against a good Bears defense last week. Playing at home against a beat-up Packers defense could be a script for a big game.
Joe Burrow has seven TD passes against one INT over the last three games. His PFF scores in the previous two games are perfect as well. Tee Higgins returning to the field has helped make this offense whole again as they’ve averaged 33 PPG over the last two games. They’ll play a Baltimore pass defense ranking EPA 24th and only average in getting pressure on opposing QBs.
Washington’s pass defense ranks 32nd in EPA, and opposing QBs average a QB rating of 123.3. Deshaun Watson plays Washington this week with all the fantasy football eyes on Jayden Daniels, which helps hide this great matchup for Watson. Cleveland’s offensive line has been in shambles this season, but the good news is both tackles practiced on Thursday and might play on Sunday. Watson earned an elite PFF passing grade last week, and more things will be in his favor on Sunday.
Caleb Williams has made large strides in his last six quarters of football. He faces a Panthers defense ranking 29th in EPA against the pass and 32nd in the NFL in pressure percentage. While things haven’t been fully clicking for the Chicago offense, they have the potential with Keenan Allen back fully healthy, Rome Odunze, D.J. Moore, and Cole Kmet against this Panthers defense.
Chase Brown has the fourth-best PFF rushing grade this season and ranks fifth in rushing YPC over expectation at +1.56. Meanwhile, Zack Moss is -0.46 rushing YPC under expectation, and his PFF rushing grade is 16.3, worse than Brown’s. Moss only had two more touches than Brown in the last game and three more in the game prior. Week four was Brown’s best snap share at 40.3%, and it should continue to rise with his efficiency stats.
Javonte Williams hasn’t bounced back this season after being two years removed from an ACL injury. Williams’ rushing YPC under expectation is -0.9, which is the sixth-worst in the NFL. Jaleel McLaughlin is +0.18 over expectation, and the third RB, Tyler Badie, hasn’t practiced this week due to a back injury. They’ll be going up against a Raiders defense that’s 22nd in EPA against the run, and Maxx Crosby hasn’t practiced this week due to an injury. McLaughlin should see more touches in this offense, has a good matchup this week, and has a cheap salary for lineups.
Rhamondre Stevenson has fumbled in every game this season. HC Jerod Mayo is considering a change at starting RB in a press conference and said “...we can’t preach that ball security is job security and still have him(Stevenson) out there the majority of the time.” Antonio Gibson has played well in his own right this season. Gibson is +1.9 rushing YPC over expectation, which ranks third in the NFL. He’s had eight or more touches in the last three games and three receptions in each of the last two games. Gibson’s touches should increase, and he plays a Miami defense that has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to RBs this season.
This week, James Conner could be a scary pick because it could quickly be a negative game script against the 49ers’ offense and the poor Cardinals' defense. This possibility is why his roster percentage is low. However, the 49ers’ defense isn’t the same tough matchup as in the past. San Francisco ranks 20th in EPA run defense, and Fred Warner hasn’t practiced this week due to an ankle injury. If the Cardinals want to stay in this game, they’ll need a heavy dose of Conner, who has reached 83 total yards and scored a TD in three of four games this season.
Brian Robinson Jr is questionable to play due to a knee injury. Austin Ekeler has returned to practice after a concussion sidelined him for a game. Cleveland is a good run defense, but they’ve allowed a decent amount of fantasy points to opposing RBs. If Robinson is inactive, then Ekeler becomes the main running and receiving back in Washington, which he would be a bargain salary-wise and as a contrarian play.
Tank Dell was a full participant on Friday and should return from his one-game injury absence. Last season, Dell only had four total games without a TD. He’s been scoreless in three games this season. The addition of Stefon Diggs has limited some targets, but Dell still is averaging just under 6 targets per game. Dell is getting 3.4 yards of separation, which ranks 17th among all WRs. Buffalo is going to focus attention on Diggs, which could leave Dell in favorable matchups.
Keon Coleman has 50 or more receiving yards in half of the games this season, and he’s still learning the NFL game. Coleman could be in for more targets on Sunday with Khalil Shakir out due to an ankle injury. Houston’s defense is allowing the ninth-most fantasy points to opposing WRs this season and ranks 29th in opposing QB TD percentage per dropback. Passing opportunities will be available against Houston, and Coleman should be in line for more targets this week.
Kenny Moore II missed last week's game and hasn’t practiced this week due to a hip injury. Moore is a good nickel CB for the Colts. If he’s inactive, Christian Kirk is a mismatch for any other Colts DB. Kirk has reached double-digit targets in the last two games. Both Gabe Davis and Evan Engram have been limited in practice this week, which would give Kirk another boost in targets if either is inactive.
Malik Nabers will not play this week, which leaves 15 targets per game over the last three games up for grabs to the rest of the Giants' pass-catching group. Wan’Dale Robinson is the only other player on the team with more than 15 total targets. Robinson has averaged 11 targets per game the last two weeks and looks to be in line to be the focal point of the passing game.
As a Bears fan who dives into the A22 film and podcasts weekly on the team, I’ll tell you a secret. Rome Odunze might be the best WR on the Bears team right now. He’s creating separation and effort at a higher level than D.J. Moore. Odunze ranks third in the NFL in separation against man coverage. Odunze has an end zone target in each of the last three games and could’ve easily had 80 more yards last week based on separation from two routes. The Bears face a Carolina pass defense whose EPA ranks 29th in the NFL. Odunze has a cheap salary and a low roster percentage, faces a bad pass defense, and is the best option in Chicago. I will be contrarian stacking Williams with Odunze in a lineup this week.
Jerry Jeudy is averaging over seven targets per game this season. However, keep an eye on David Njoku’s status on Sunday to see if he’s active. Washington’s defense is allowing the second-most fantasy points to WRs this season, and they rank 32nd in EPA against the pass overall. Jeudy has over 70 receiving yards in two of the last three games, which could be a sign that his rapport with Watson is getting stronger. Stacking a contrarian play of Watson and Jeudy would be a cheap and unique lineup.
Not only is Davante Adams going to miss another game, but Zamir White and Michael Mayer won’t be playing on Sunday as well. The Raiders offense should be running through Brock Bowers and Jakobi Meyers. Bowers only has seven combined targets in the last two games, which is why he’s on the lower side of roster percentages. He’s PFF’s second overall TE and he should see more targets this week with those three players out.
Mark Andrews is 29 years old, and he has produced at a high level in each of the last five seasons. It’s tough to imagine Andrews just doesn’t have it anymore. He’s played with Lamar Jackson for years and has the same offensive coordinator as last season. They’ll face a Bengals defense ranked 22nd in EPA against the pass and ranked 26th in TD percentage allowed per pass attempt.
George Kittle is questionable to play with a rib injury. Please monitor his status on Sunday to make sure he’s active. Despite the injury, Kittle has been efficient this year, catching 15 of his 17 targets and scoring in his last two games. Kittle will face a Cardinals pass defense ranked 25th in EPA.
Zach Ertz is averaging four targets per contest and has three or more receptions in every game this season. Ertz has yet to score this season despite being second on the Commanders in targets and receptions. Ertz doesn’t have a high ceiling due to his age and athleticism, but he does possess a solid floor compared to his salary.
Seattle ranks first in the NFL in pressure percentage and eighth in total defense EPA. They’ll face a Giants offense that ranks 24th in total EPA and tied for the sixth-most turnovers. Malik Nabers won’t play on Sunday and Devin Singletary is doubtful due to a groin injury. Seattle will face a Giants team with a bad offense made worse without their best playmakers.
Similarly, as above, Denver will face a Raiders team without Adams, White, and Mayer. Denver’s defense ranks second in overall EPA, third in points allowed, and fifth in pressure percentage. The Broncos' defense gets to play the 26th EPA offense without three of their top five playmakers at home.