Contrarian means opposing or rejecting popular opinion; going against the current practice. Being a contrarian in fantasy football is difficult because you’re taking a risk, but it can be a winning strategy. Contrarian is where the big money is made within DFS, especially in large tournaments because you’ll submit more unique lineups than your competitors.
Mix one or two of these players within a lineup to maximize individuality.
Do not create your entire lineup based on the contrarian picks below.
The key for charts:
Player = recommended contrarian play
Opponent = Home or away and the opponent
FD Roster % = This week's FanDuel roster percentages
FD Salary = FanDuel salary to roster the player
DK Roster % = This week's DraftKings roster percentages
DK Salary = DraftKings salary to roster the player
Minnesota is third in the NFL in points scored this season and Green Bay’s defense has been inflated due to playing the Colts and Titans offenses the past two games. Sam Darnold is leading the NFL in TD passes and TD percentage. He has a huge opportunity against a division opponent and I don’t see the Vikings taking the foot off the gas. The Packers CB Jaire Alexander is questionable after not practicing on Friday, while Jordan Addison was a full practice participant and will boost the offense.
It’s surprising to see Jayden Daniels’ roster percentage being low considering he’s coming off a great game last week. He accounted for 293 total yards and three TDs. Daniels will face a Cardinals defense allowing the third-highest opponent QB passer rating and the highest completion percentage. Austin Ekeler will not play, which could create more running opportunities for Daniels.
Andy Dalton was a huge contrarian play in this article last week. It’s a revenge game for Dalton as he gets to play against Cincinnati. The Bengals' defense barely pressured Washington last week, allowed 38 points, and opposing QBs are averaging a 102 QB passer rating. Cincinnati has a rest disadvantage after playing on Monday Night Football in week three. Carolina will be without Adam Thielen and Damien Lewis, but Cincinnati could be without both starting DTs. Dalton is cheap, low-rostered, faces a bad defense, and has a lot of revenge this week.
The Rams defense is 31st in points allowed, 31st in opponent passer rating, T-31st in QB hits, 32nd in yards per completion, 32nd in yards per attempt, 29th in blitz percentage. The Los Angeles defense has to try to stop Caleb Williams, who is coming off a 363 passing yards and two TD performance. Keenan Allen should return to the lineup after missing two games and help boost the passing game.
James Conner had his worst game of the year against Detroit last week, which explains his low roster percentage. Trey McBride is out for this game, which means the offense will run through Marvin Harrison Jr. and Conner. The Washington defense ranks 21st against the run and allows the third most fantasy points to RBs. Conner is PFF’s best pass blocker for an RB by a wide margin, which will only help his snap counts on passing downs. Arizona is fifth in the NFL rushing YPC and has the sixth-best offense. Conner is a huge part of it and should continue this week against a vulnerable defense.
Continue to monitor injury reports, but Joe Mixon is questionable to play after practicing on Friday. If Mixon plays after a one-game absence, then expect good production against a Jaguar defense allowing the fifth-most fantasy points to RBs. Mixon is showing no signs of slowing down as he ranks 17th in rushing yards per carry-over expectation and continues to be involved in the passing game as he has three receptions in both games played this season, which helps raise his scoring floor. Dameon Pierce has been ruled out for week four as well. Mixon only needs to contend with third-string RB Cam Akers for touches.
The Chargers defense has been boosted by playing the Raiders, Panthers, and Steelers so far this season. They allowed 114 rushing yards and 346 total yards to Pittsburgh last week, who are a bottom-third offense this season. Their defense will be worse with Joey Bosa and Junior Colson missing week four due to injuries and Derwin James Jr. due to a suspension. The Chargers offense will likely be less productive as well without Rashawn Slater, Justin Herbert, and Joe Alt questionable. The Chiefs could have better field position and more offensive opportunities purely based on those injuries. Carson Steele had 18 touches in his first NFL start compared to only 9 for Samaje Perine. Look for that trend to continue as Steele has 0.07 rushing yards per carry-over expectation as a rookie who should continue to improve as the season progresses.
San Francisco is 31st in rush defense accorded to expected points added. Things could be worse with Javon Hargrave not playing in week four and Talanoa Hufanga questionable to play after not practicing on Friday. Rhamondre Stevenson was a disappointment in week three, which made his price cheap this week and a low roster percentage. The Patriots didn’t pay Stevenson $17M guaranteed this off-season to split touches with Antonio Gibson.
Najee Harris leads all Steelers RBs in rushing attempts, but also in receptions. Harris should get a boost in touches this week because Jaylen Warren will not be playing. They’ll play a Colts defense without Kwity Paye, DeForest Buckner, and Kenny Moore II. The Colts have been vulnerable against the run this season, outside of the Chicago game last week. Look for Harris to become a workhorse for Pittsburgh this week as they’re trying to move to a 4-0 record.
The momentum is rising for Darnell Mooney and the fantasy community isn’t noticing. Mooney ranks second on the team in total targets and he’s only trailing Drake London by one. He has earned 15 targets in the last two games and caught all eight of his targets from last week. PFF has Mooney graded as the 32nd-best WR in the NFL. London and Kyle Pitts get the defensive attention, but Mooney is winning his matchups and gaining the trust of the offense and Kirk Cousins. Mooney has a cheap salary this week, which will allow you to spend more in other parts of your lineup.
Chris Godwin has earned 10 more targets than Mike Evans this season and has doubled his yardage. But we know Evans is too good to be ignored and will have monster bounce-back games. Evans led the NFL in receiving TDs in 2023 and recorded his 10th straight 1,000-yard season. The Eagles are allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to WRs this season. Tampa Bay’s defense is beat up and it could cause them to be trailing for most of this game. Evans being available as a contrarian play is surprising and I’ll be capitalizing in a lineup or two.
Creating a contrarian stack would make a unique lineup in tournaments. Darnold paired with Addison would qualify this week playing against Green Bay. Above I mentioned Alexander was questionable to play for the Packers, but backup CB Carrington Valentine is doubtful on the injury report. Most of the Packers' attention will be toward Justin Jefferson, which will leave Addison in favorable matchups. Last year at Green Bay, Addison posted 7 receptions for 82 yards and a TD stat line in this exact scenario. Green Bay is allowing the 10th most fantasy points to WRs this season.
Andrei Iosivas leads the Bengals in receiving TDs on the season and he’s two targets from leading the team on the season. Carolina’s best CB Jaycee Horn will be concentrating on Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, so look for Iosivas to continue to thrive in the middle of the field. The Panthers are allowing the eighth-most fantasy points to WRs this season. Iosivas is a low-risk play due to his cheap cost, even with Higgins working his way back from an injury.
Rashid Shaheed was all the rage after scoring a TD in each game in the initial two weeks of the season. No receptions on five targets in week three are why he’s available as a contrarian play in week four. PFF ranks Shaheed as the 14th-best WR in the NFL. Shaheed has scored a TD in two of his previous three games against Atlanta, who ranks 10th in the NFL against the pass. Chris Olave injured his hamstring on Friday, so monitor injuries Sunday morning to see if he’s playing. Shaheed is a contrarian play either way, but he’ll get a massive boost if Olave isn’t active.
Above I mentioned multiple statistics which place the Rams in the bottom two in many different defensive categories. They’re allowing the sixth-most fantasy points to WRs as well. Williams has a connection with Odunze, he looks his way for deep targets and in the end zone. Odunze dropped a TD in week two but caught a TD in week three. Allen returning to the field could reduce targets for Odunze, but we don’t know how many snaps Allen will play. Williams proved last week he’s capable of producing multiple fantasy-relevant receivers. A contrarian stack of Williams and Odunze would create a unique lineup and save money to spend elsewhere.
Cole Kmet is getting recommended as a contrarian play after I’ve mentioned Odunze as a good contrarian play and with Allen returning to the field. Give me a chance to sell you on Chicago’s TE as a contrarian play. Kmet’s snap percentage has been increasing each game as Gerald Everett’s has decreased. Kmet is noticeably quicker this season and PFF has him ranked as the 4th-best TE in the NFL. TE is tough position in fantasy this year, so chasing targets is a smart play. Kmet has had 15 targets in the last two weeks and earned 14 receptions. Williams sustained three fantasy-relevant receivers last week and Kmet could be one of those options against a bad Rams defense. Lastly, the Bears run game is terrible. Chicago should pass more based on a broken run game.
Mike Gesicki is tied for the lead in targets in Cincinnati this season. Higgins’ return could cut into his targets, but TE is tough to predict this season and I’m chasing targets. Gesicki is PFF’s 12th-ranked TE on the season. He’ll face a Carolina pass defense allowing the second most fantasy points to TEs. Gesicki is a better DraftKings play at his $3500 salary than FanDuel, but both are good contrarian options this week.
Kyle Pitts being tackled on the one-yard line in week three is a perfect analogy for what fantasy owners have gone through with him the last few seasons. The difference in 2024 is Pitts is fully healthy and Kirk Cousins gives him a high ceiling every week. Cousins is settling into the Falcons’ offense after a rocky week one game and it’s opening things up in the entire passing game. The Saints defense has been vulnerable against TEs this season and they’ll be playing Sunday without star LB Demario Davis.
Monitor the injury lists on Sunday to make sure George Kittle is active, but it’s rare to have him as an option for a contrarian lineup. If he’s active, then check to see if Deebo Samuel Sr. is playing because it could give Kittle a nice boost in targets this week. Christian Gonzalez is likely going to focus on Brandon Aiyuk, which could create Kittle as the number-one option in the passing game against the 26th-ranked Patriots pass defense according to expected points added.
Minnesota ranks second in the NFL in total defense, second in pressure rate, second in blitz rate, third in pass defense, sixth in passer rating allowed, and eighth in run defense. This play is better if Jordan Love doesn’t play, but the Vikings made C.J. Stroud and Brock Purdy look bad the last two weeks. It’s tough to envision Matt LaFleur dialing up a perfect game plan when Malik Willis throws to his first read on a high rate against one of the hottest defenses in football. Minnesota strikes me as a team that goes for the kill and I don’t expect them to let up against Willis at QB.
Pittsburgh has the best run defense in the NFL. Indianapolis has two starting Offensive lineman questionable after not practicing on Friday, which is bad news for Anthony Richardson and Jonathan Taylor. The Steelers will be without Alex Highsmith, they’re ninth in pressure percentage and third in total defense. Richardson’s struggles with accuracy could be compounded by T.J. Watt leading this Steelers' defense.