Contrarian means opposing or rejecting popular opinion; going against the current practice. Being a contrarian in fantasy football is difficult because you’re taking a risk, but it can be a winning strategy. Contrarian is where the big money is made within DFS, especially in large tournaments because you’ll submit more unique lineups than your competitors.
Mix one or two of these players within a lineup to maximize individuality.
Do not create your entire lineup based on the contrarian picks below.
The key for charts:
Player = recommended contrarian play
Opponent = Home or away and the opponent
FD Roster % = This week's FanDuel roster percentages
FD Salary = FanDuel salary to roster the player
DK Roster % = This week's DraftKings roster percentages
DK Salary = DraftKings salary to roster the player
The Colts rank 29th in the NFL in expected points added on defense and 31st against the pass. 29th in 3rd down percentage allowed, 24th in points allowed per drive, 26th in red zone percentage and opposing QBs are averaging a 120.7 QB rating. Most of these stats were before they lost star DT DeForest Buckner last week. This is a get-right game for Caleb Williams and the underachieving Bears offense.
Andy Dalton is now the starter in Carolina, who will be attempting to create some stability on a bad football team. Dalton has enough NFL experience to play well immediately off the bench this week. The Raiders’ defense is average on the season and possesses only two high-end talents. Dalton is on this list because he’s extremely cheap and QB play is down across the league. Saving money with Dalton will help you create a stronger lineup elsewhere.
The Pittsburgh version of Justin Fields has limited mistakes and game-managed the Steelers’ offense to two wins. He’s averaged 11 rush attempts per game but hasn’t created a big play or TD. Fields’ first home game in Pittsburgh will be against a surprising Chargers team. While the Chargers' defense is playing well, they have played two poor offenses in the Raiders and Panthers this year. Fields is a cheap play and he could be a winning play in a lineup from a contrarian percentage.
Brock Purdy hasn’t played up to his standard this season as he’s missed Christian McCaffrey. The injuries will be worse this week with Deebo Samuel Sr. and George Kittle likely to also miss the game. Despite key pieces not playing on offense, Purdy should play well against the 32nd-ranked defense which is also losing starters. Trusting the 49ers' scheme and talent makes Purdy a calculated contrarian play.
Justin Herbert is questionable to play with a high-ankle sprain. The Chargers should be leaning on the run game, even if Herbert plays. Dobbins is playing at a high level after producing more than 130 rushing yards and a TD in each of the last two games. He’s leading the NFL in rushing yards per carry-over expected at 5.16, which is more than double the second-place ball carrier. Pittsburgh is a bottom-third run defense against RBs this season. Dobbins’ roster percentage is odd given his level of production and matchup this week.
Arizona is giving up the third most fantasy points to RBs this season. David Montgomery has been a TD machine since he’s been in Detroit. He has scored 19 total TDs in 19 games playing with the Lions. While Montgomery has to fight for touches in a crowded backfield, he has 15 or more touches in both games this season.
Opportunities are crucial for RB fantasy production. Devin Singletary is averaging over 15 touches per game and no other RB on the roster has even 5 total touches on the season. While the Giants are not a good team, they lean on Singletary in the backfield. The ceiling isn’t high for him, but the floor is solid. Cleveland is a middle-of-the-road run defense, which shouldn’t decrease Singletary’s production. The best part of using him as a contrarian option at his salary is cheap, which allows you to spend up at other positions.
After Thanksgiving in 2023, the Cowboys were a bottom 5 defensive unit and teams were running over them at will. According to PFF the Cowboys' run defense hasn’t improved much in 2024. Starting NT Mazi Smith is the worst overall DT in the NFL and backup DT Linval Joseph ranks third to last. Osa Odighizuwa is the other starting DT, who ranks overall 90th. Among Dallas’ front 7 defenders, only Micah Parsons and Damone Clark grade out in the good category for run defense via PFF. Derrick Henry gets to face this Cowboys run defense this week. Henry has scored a TD in each game but hasn’t had a breakout performance. This is about as low as Henry can be as a contrarian option and he’s spicy this week.
James Conner has earned 19 and 21 touches in each of his games this season. The Cardinals have been surprisingly competitive in 2024, which only helps Conner earn more touches via the game script. Despite being 29 years old, Conner is still an above-average starting RB in this league and great in pass protection. He’s earned a rushing TD in each game and gets some looks in the passing game as well. Detroit is an improved defense, but they’re not stout enough to ignore the touches Conner is receiving and the salary it takes to add him into lineups.
The Colts possess one of the worst defenses in the NFL and more importantly, one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL. Rome Odunze battled through a strained MCL from week one to play almost the entire game in week two. Odunze dropped a TD and hasn’t been on the same page with Williams to connect on a few other passes this season. While the other top 10 rookie WRs had great week two performances, one would think Odunze could have one soon as well. You could stack a contrarian Williams play at QB with a contrarian Odunze play at WR because they’re both cheap and in a ripe opportunity against an easy Colts defense.
I was happy for Quentin Johnston’s two TD reception day in week two. He’s been through a lot and it looked like a monkey was lifted off his back. Confidence can lift play, while doubt can defeat play. Johnston has quietly been playing much better this season and last week could give him the confidence needed to take another step in his game. The Chargers don’t have proven receiving threats to take away opportunities and he’s earned five or more targets in each game this season. Johnston is cheap and low-owned, which makes him an easy addition to a lineup or two. If Herbert doesn’t play, then this option isn’t recommended.
127 receiving yards on 18 targets is a massive day for Malik Nabers in week two. It reveals the trust of the coaching staff and Daniel Jones because it was building off a solid week one outing. Nabers is averaging double-digit targets per game, which makes him a high-end option each week. He shouldn’t be eligible as a contrarian play, so take advantage. Cleveland is an average pass defense, which doesn’t dim any of the potential for Nabers.
HC Matt LaFleur is being coy about Jordan Love’s status for playing this week. He’s indicated “there’s nothing more to see” and “we’re working through” Love’s clearance to play. At this point, the Packers know whether or not Love will play against the Titans. But it’s not in their best interest to let anyone know for game-planning purposes. In the same regard, DFS ownership of the Packers WRs is very low anticipating Love not playing. However, Love has participated in multiple passes this week, which doesn’t normally happen for a player who won’t suit up. This contrarian play is only used if Love is going to play because it will be a last-minute change to lineups. Everyone won’t be available or ready to adjust, which makes it a potential winning strategy. The Titans' secondary wasn’t stout against the Bears or the Jets. Jayden Reed is the Packers’ best-receiving option, but he’s facing arguably the Titan’s best CB Roger McCreary in the slot. Romeo Doubs has played better than Christian Watson this season, but both are viable options against Chidobe Aquzie and L’Jarius Sneed, who is the second-worst CB in the NFL this season. The very low owned roster percentage and cheap salaries make adding any of these Packers WRs to your lineups, if Love is playing, my favorite contrarian plays this week. I included all three receivers in this article because if you’re creating multiple lineups, I would mix and match any of the three players into them. For example, if Love is playing and I’m creating six different lineups, then I will have one of these three receivers in at least three of the lineups.
Matthew Stafford is now without Puka Nakua and Cooper Kupp to target in the passing game. Colby Parkinson was a letdown last week with only one reception. His luck should change moving forward with no alpha in the passing game and the Rams will likely have a negative game script against the 49ers.
Sam LaPorta was recovering from a hamstring injury during training camp, so his slow start to the season was expected. Jameson Williams’ emergence cuts into opportunities for others in the offense, but LaPorta was amazing last year. He will bounce back soon and the Cardinals’ defense has been vulnerable to TEs for over a year.
What have you done for me lately should be the theme of this contrarian article each week. The general population favors the most recent data too heavily. Isaiah Likely’s week one performance caused a high roster percentage for week two. But after a below-average game in week two, his week one performance is a distant memory. Likely has been in the conversation of being the third target in the Ravens' passing game for a while and his game is elevated this season. Dallas has a dangerous offense, which could make this a high-scoring game and create more targets for Likely.
Cole Kmet has three straight seasons with over 540 receiving yards. Lots of new pieces and an offensive coordinator have contributed to his slow start. Keenan Allen didn’t play last week and will not play on Sunday. Rome Odunze and Gerald Everett have struggled to start the season as well, but could also make the offense shift back to veteran producers in DJ Moore and Kmet. The Colts have the 31st-ranked pass defense in expected points added and they lost some recent key pieces to the defense as well.
Will Levis has thrown three INTs, fumbled twice, and been sacked seven times this season. DeAndre Hopkins has two receptions on the season, which leaves the Titans with only one real threat in the passing game with Calvin Ridley. The Packers have five INTs this season and six turnovers forced overall. The Packers' defensive line should create pressure against a young Titans OL.
Skylar Thompson is the starting QB in Miami, which creates uncertainty for the entire offense. HC Mike Macdonald generated lots of pressure on the QB in Baltimore and he’s continuing it in Seattle as they’re third in the NFL in pressure percentage per dropback. A backup QB starting against a pressure defense is a good contrarian play.