Contrarian means opposing or rejecting popular opinion; going against the current practice. Being a contrarian in fantasy football is difficult because you’re taking a risk, but it can be a winning strategy. Contrarian is where the big money is made within DFS, especially in large tournaments because you’ll submit more unique lineups than your competitors.
Mix one or two of these players within a lineup to maximize individuality.
Do not create your entire lineup based on the contrarian picks below.
The key for charts:
Player = recommended contrarian play
Opponent = Home or away and the opponent
FD Roster % = This week's FanDuel roster percentages
FD Salary = FanDuel salary to roster the player
DK Roster % = This week's DraftKings roster percentages
DK Salary = DraftKings salary to roster the player
Packers HC Matt LaFleur stepped out of Aaron Rodgers’ shadow last year to earn the reputation as a good playcaller in the NFL in 2023. LaFleur has created good offenses with Rodgers throwing to Davante Adams and then last year with Jordan Love throwing to a young set of skill position players. LaFleur designs game plans to his players’ strengths. Malik Willis’ strength is running the football as he ran for over 875 yards and 13 TD in his last two seasons in college. Trusting LaFleur for a cheap QB play with a history of being a good runner is a strong contrarian play.
Derek Carr produced a near-flawless week one performance with a 142.5 QB rating. It is only one game in the 2024 season, but Carr was on a heater to end 2023 with 12 TD passes against only 1 INT. Carr has posted five straight games of over a 105 QB rating, which he’s only accomplished one other time in his career. The Cowboys will be a much more formidable foe than the Panthers. However, the Saints' new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak is a wild card and could be the missing piece to maximizing Carr’s potential.
The 49ers were a difficult initiation back to the NFL for Aaron Rodgers. He looked solid at times by accurately placing the football into his playmakers' hands. Rodgers ranked 10th among all QBs in adjusted EPA in week one and that’s with some rust to his game. He should perform better against a Titans defense that isn’t as talented as the 49ers. Garrett Wilson against anyone in Tennessee is a mismatch for Rodgers to exploit.
Baker Mayfield silenced anyone who believed his 2023 season was a mirage in week one. He threw for 289 yards with 4 TDs against Washington. The Lions’ defense is more talented in 2024 and played well in week one. However, Matthew Stafford had the 7th-best adjusted EPA in week one against Detroit and this was with Puka Nakua not playing the entire game. The other boost to a Mayfield contrarian play this week is gamescript. If the Lions offense continues to perform, then the Bucs will need to keep pace through the passing game and give more opportunities to Mayfield.
Earlier I mentioned LaFleur designing a gameplan around Willis running, which would also help create rushing lanes for Josh Jacobs. In week one, Jacobs earned over 100 yards of total offense in a game on 18 touches. The Colts allowed 213 rushing yards in week one with Joe Mixon running for 159 yards. Jacobs is on par with Mixon’s talent, if not better at this point in their careers. The injury report has Jacobs as a limited participant due to his back. However, the Colts’ DeForest Buckner hasn’t practiced this week and Kwity Paye only logged one limited practice. Both are starters on the defensive line and would have a big impact if they don’t suit up.
Tony Pollard looked quick on film in his first game as a Titan and reminded me of his prime years in Dallas when he was a top-5 PFF RB. He ranked 9th in the NFL in rushing yards per carry-over expectation in week one. The Titans should lean on Pollard to take pressure off of Will Levis after his second half-collapse.
Aaron Jones was explosive in his first game in a Vikings uniform. Jones produced over 100 total yards of offense on only 16 touches. He ranked second in the NFL in rushing yards per carry-over expectation and first in PFF’s overall grade for an RB. The 49ers are a difficult matchup, which makes this a battle of strengths. HC Kevin O’Connell appears more dedicated to the run game this year, which will equate to more touches for Jones.
It’s difficult to trust OC Arthur Smith due to his personnel usage over the years. But Najee Harris had 21 touches in the first game with close to a 56% timeshare in the Pittsburgh backfield. Some of his 21 touches last week were due to a positive game script in beating Atlanta. However, they play Denver this week, who is one of the worst teams in the NFL and should garner another positive game script to be running the football. Harris bounced back in his efficiency as a runner being tied for 16th in rushing yards per carry-over expectation in 2023.
Jaleel McLaughlin produced one total yard on five receptions and 2.7 YPC on ten rushing attempts. As you read those stats the feeling you get is the reason his roster percentages are very low. Audric Estime was placed on injured reserve which creates more opportunities for Javonte Williams and McLaughlin. Williams had a higher snap share than McLaughlin but received fewer touches and we only care about touches in fantasy football. McLaughlin had a 0.34 rushing yards per carry-over expectation in week one, which was better than Jonathan Taylor, Breece Hall, Travis Etienne, and Bijan Robinson. A price tag of only 5200 on FanDuel and 4500 on DraftKings which is what makes McLaughlin one of my favorite contrarian plays of the week.
Puka Nacua's injury provides an opportunity for other Rams pass catchers to earn targets. Tyler Johnson turned into a full-time starter once Nacua left the game with an injury. Johnson received seven targets for 79 yards on five receptions after playing about 70% of the snaps. Arizona is one of the worst defenses in the NFL, which should provide plenty of opportunity for fantasy points to be scored. Johnson will still be a great value even if he regresses a little from his week one performance on a higher snap count in week two.
Xavier Worthy turned three touches in the opening game of the year into two TDs. This pace is going to decline, but it highlights why Worthy is a great contrarian play. Worthy’s ceiling on a play is a touchdown in the Kansas City offense with Patrick Mahomes II. If he doesn’t hit his ceiling on a given week, then he’ll get a few points but only costs 6200 in FanDuel and 6100 in DraftKings. The Bengals' defense is vulnerable, which makes the ceiling play more probable among the outcomes for Worthy.
The Jets defense is great against the pass and it’s led by one of the best CBs in the NFL in Sauce Gardner. This is the biggest reason Calvin Ridley is a contrarian play this week. Ridley has been the top option for Will Levis throughout training camp, preseason, and week 1. DeAndre Hopkins is recovering from a knee injury and played in only limited snaps last week and this may be the case again against the Jets, who have their injuries with CB2 and CB3 limited in practice. Ridley will see targets in this game and he could do well if he’s not shadowed by Gardner on the majority of pass plays.
Humans naturally value the last piece of information on a topic more than previous pieces of information. In DFS, some people will feel drawn to roster Isaiah Likely because of his week one performance. But people will hesitate on Marvin Harrison Jr. because he only caught one pass. Harrison is one of the most talented WRs to enter the NFL in some time and now he plays one of the weakest secondaries in the NFL. He’s a contrarian play because of week one and he’s a rookie who needs to learn more before he can produce. I believe Harrison could’ve produced in the NFL in 2023, so I will invest in him in 2024 especially when he has low roster percentages.
The Christian McCaffrey injury situation shifts the passing game targets because Jordan Mason isn’t nearly the same threat out of the backfield. Minnesota’s defense loves to pressure the QB and disguise looks both pre and post-snap. Brock Purdy will be looking to his best WR who can get open versus man and zone schemes and that’s Brandon Aiyuk.
Touchdowns are vital to winning DFS lineups. Mike Evans has scored 16 TDs in his last 20 games with Baker Mayfield as his QB, which includes the playoffs. In what could be a negative game script, it’s tough to imagine Mayfield not looking Evans’ way to help carry the offense down the field and in the red zone. Evans’ price tag is a bit high this week for good reason. He’s a good player, who scores TDs and he’s playing a below-average secondary.
Colby Parkinson’s target opportunities will increase just like they will for Johnson as I outlined earlier due to the Nacua injury. Parkinson caught four of five targets last week for 47 yards. His salary is cheap again facing a bad Arizona defense. The only concern we’ll need to monitor is if the Rams keep Parkinson in to block more due to the offensive line injuries.
Jordan Akins is famous in Chicago Bears fans' minds because he caught the desperation pass from Davis Mills to help them secure the number one overall pick. Akins could become famous again this week in the DFS community because he will have a cheap salary and start in Cleveland due to David Njoku’s injury. HC Kevin Stefanski’s offense values TEs and utilizes them often on the field. For example, Njoku earned five targets and Akins earned four targets last week. If Akins can add half of Njoku’s targets, then he’ll be a valuable player in DFS.
If Mike Gesicki secured his fourth target last week, then the fantasy football community would feel differently about him. However, an almost TD turned into an incomplete pass and Gesicki finished the day with three receptions for 18 yards. Injuries to Tee Higgins and Tanner Hudson continue to create favorable opportunities for Gesicki to earn targets. The Bengals will likely be facing a negative game script against the Chiefs. Gesicki is a cheap player in DFS and has multiple factors that could boost his outcome.
Zach Ertz was in this article last week and he produced 28 yards on three receptions off of four targets. It doesn’t appear impressive until you compare it to the top-end TEs and look at the salary saved to use on other positions. Ertz is a good contrarian play again this week due to his roster percentage and low salary. Jayden Daniels hasn’t been throwing the football down the field in preseason or week one. Daniels should be looking Ertz’s way again in week two for a high-floor play in DFS.
The Patriots pulled off the biggest upset in week one beating the Bengals. They shut down Joe Burrow and JaMarr Chase by allowing only 224 yards of offense and 10 points. Seattle didn’t look impressive in a 6-point win over the Broncos at home. They produced 304 yards of offense, and 26 points, but had two turnovers. Kenneth Walker III will not be playing in this game as well. Seattle traveling across the country is another barrier to overcome.
Daniel Jones threw two INTs and was sacked five times in the home opener. Malik Nabers is on the injury report with a knee injury that limited him in practice, but he should play. Washington’s defense isn’t overly talented. I trust HC Dan Quinn to stop the Giants more than I trust Daniel Jones to beat an NFL defense.