Sunday Morning Update
Small Sunday Update this week. This is made on a gut feel more than anything as I have both Rhamondre Stevenson and James Conner projected to score within 0.1 of each other. I'm switching from Stevenson to Conner. The reasoning for this is that the Cardinals are somehow favored in this game, and one of the highest-projected scoring teams on this slate. As a tiebreaker give me the better offense. What I have realized is that I was taking Stevenson to fill out the salary cap more than the actual player.
This also allows me to go up from Malik Nabers to Rashee Rice, who feels slightly safer and goes in line with trusting the better offense.
- QB Jayden Daniels- WAS $7,900
- RB Breece Hall, NYJ, $8,500
- RB Jordan Mason, SF, $5,500
- WR Cooper Kupp, LAR, $7,700
- WR Rashee Rice, KC, $6,900
- WR Deebo Samuel Sr., SF, $7,300
- TE Trey McBride, ARI, $6,200
- Flex RB James Conner, ARI, $6,500
- TD Denver, $3,400
SITUATIONS THAT STAND OUT TO THIS WEEK ON THE MAIN SLATE.
- Detroit (vs TB) - 29.0 Points
- Kansas City (vs CIN) - 27.0 Points
- Baltimore (vs LV) - 25.5 Points
- Arizona (vs LAR) - 25.25 Points
- San Francisco (at Min) - 25.0 Points
Injuries Create Opportunity:
Puka Nacua will miss this week as he has been placed on IR with a knee injury. This is a week where Cooper Kupp should be 100% rostered as he had 21 targets last week.
Ken Walker III will miss this week with an oblique injury. While Zach Charbonnet has yet to find consistent success in the NFL, for just $6,300 is a tremendous value for the second-year player. The issue for Charbonnet is that he has yet to have that breakout performance, and could be facing a difficult New England defense that completely shut down Cincinnati’s rushing game last week.
Christian McCaffrey will once again miss this week. At just $5,500 Jordan Mason is a must-start this week after running for 147 yards last week. Deebo Samuel Sr. is also an intriguing play as he had 9 targets and 8 carries with McCaffrey out. At just $7,300, Samuel is more than a fair price.
Jake Ferguson will miss this week with a knee injury. Without their number two receiver last season, the Cowboys will likely look heavily towards CeeDee Lamb as the only other receiver for Dallas who caught more than two passes was Brandin Cooks last week.
Marquise Brown’s season appears to be over. The receiver was placed on IR this week and is having shoulder surgery. This should narrow the targets in Kansas City to Travis Kelce, Rashee Rice, and Xavier Worthy. Kelce and Rice are both in cash game consideration, while Worthy is still a GPP play, given his upside due to his speed but likely will have week-to-week volatility.
Cash Game Strategy- Week 2 Be Careful
This week is about as easy of a week to build a lineup in a long time. The reason for this is that there is value all over the board that makes this a star and scrub type lineup build. Most weeks, the optimal lineups are in the 120-125 range. This week, you can easily build a lineup that is projected to score more than 140 and get close to 145 based on Footballguys projections.
There are three players who are likely going to be 90%+ rostered this week in Jordan Mason, Zach Charbonnet, and Cooper Kupp. Both Kupp and Mason are beneficiaries of the primetime games as Kupp is coming off of a 21-target performance, while the salaries were already released before Christian McCaffrey’s announcement that he was out.
While three chalk players typically is not a big deal, the issue is that there are not a lot of elite options at the top end to spend your salary on, so because so many people are going to have a lot of salary cap to spend, it will raise the roster percentage of players such as CeeDee Lamb, Lamar Jackson, Deebo Samuel Sr., Trey McBride, Breece Hall, and Rashee Rice. What this ultimately means is your win or lose this week could entirely be based on which defense you choose, or which tight end you choose due to the overlap.
It doesn’t mean that you shouldn’t play this week, but just be careful. Don’t go crazy after a good Week 1 and you think Week 2 is easy to fill a lineup. If it’s easy for you, it’s easy for everyone to create a great lineup. The better players separate themselves on weeks where the decisions are hard, not easy.
Player Pool
Quarterback | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
| 1 | Jayden Daniels | 22.76 | 7900 | Starting quarterbacks against the Giants is going to be a trend all season. The Giants are one of the worst tackling defenses in the NFL. Whilte the Commanders got blown out in Week 1, Jayden Daniels was a fantasy star. Rushing the ball 16 times for 88 yards and 2 touchdowns while throwing an additional 184 yards. |
| 2 | Lamar Jackson | 24.78 | 8800 | The reigning MVP had a strong start to his season last week against Kansas City. Jackson threw the ball for 273 yards and a touchdown, while also running the ball for 122 yards. The issue this week is whether Jackson is going to need to run the ball as much against the Raiders as he did against the Chiefs last week. Jackson's 16 carries was the most that he has had since 2021. This could be a game where we only have 40-50 yards of rushing and while the upside is still there for Jackson, at $8,800, we need more predictability from a Raiders offense in order to put Jackson at number one this week. |
| 3 | Justin Fields | 18.89 | 7000 | With FanDuel, rushing upside is key, and no quarterback has as much rushing upside as Justin Fields who ran the ball 14 times last week. Denver's linebacker unit is about as bad as any linebacker unit in the NFL. This was a unit that was absolutely shredded by the rushing attack of Seattle last week as Kenneth Walker ran for 103 yards and a touchdown last week. The problem with Fields is that his floor is low, making him likely more than of a Cash + or GPP play this week. |
| Running Back | ||||
| Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
| 1 | Jordan Mason | 15.76 | 5500 | 147 rushing yards last week with 28 carries. There's not much more to say about Jordan Mason. Play him. |
| 2 | Breece Hall | 19.08 | 8500 | Despite largely being shut down in a negative game script as the Jets lost 32-19, Hall still produced. Hall had ran the ball 16 times for 54 yards and a touchdown, while adding another 5 receptions for 39 yards. This week, the Jets face a Titans team who defensively looked good in Week 1 holding D'Andre Swift to just 3.0 yards-per-carry, but Hall is a different level of running back compared to Swift. This should be a game in which the Jets have the lead, and are able to have a positive game script for one of the best running backs in the NFL. |
| 3 | Rhamondre Stevenson | 14.28 | 6900 | The Patriots made their game plan pretty clear in Week 1. They're going to try to win games through their defense and a heavy rushing attack. In Week 1, Rhamondre Stevenson had 25 carries and 3 receptions totaling 126 yards and a touchdown. They're going to try to give him as much volume as they can each and every week given their lack of playmakers at the wide receiver position along with their offensive line issues. For Stevenson, he's taking on a Seahawks team that looked much improved against the run in Week 1, but it's largely still unknown how they will fair without Bobby Wagner, Jamal Adams and Qandree Diggs. Their Week 1 performance needs to be discounted a little bit, given that they faced a Broncos team that looks like they're going to struggle offensively for most of the season as they posed no downfield threat in the passing game. |
| 4 | Zach Charbonnet | 14.66 | 6300 | With no Ken Walker III this week, Zach Charbonnet is going to get most of the volume. For Charbonnet, he's yet to have his breakout performance. This is only his second game with Ken Walker III being out. However, he has had three games last season with 14 carries or more. In those three games, he averaged just 3.2 yards-per-carry, and 51 yards per game. In a GPP, he is likely going to be a fairly easy fade given this lack of consistent production, but in a cash game he's at least viable. The only question is really whether you need the savings to go down to him, as there are better running backs in the high 6k range that if you can afford them, you may be better off taking. |
| 5 | Jonathan Taylor | 15.74 | 8200 | Saquon Barkley and the Eagles ran all over the Packers last week. Barkley scored three touchdowns, while rushing for 109 yards and gaining another 23 through the air. The Packers are a team that is designed to stop the pass, and while defensive tackle Kenny Clark will certainly play better than he did last week, he is in his 9th season which could be a sign of starting to decline for the 320 pound defensive tackle. For Taylor, he was largely shut down against one of the league's best run defenses in Houston as he gained just 48 yards on 16 carries, but did score a rushing touchdown to save his day in Week 1. |
| 6 | Kyren Williams | 16.85 | 8000 | With no Puka Nacua this week, the Rams options are going to be relatively limited. Williams is coming off of a difficult matchup against Detroit, and while he only was able to gain 50 yards rushing and 3 yards receiving, he did find the end zone to salvage his day. You get a high touchdown equity with Williams, as he was third in the NFL in red zone opportunities last season. When they get inside the 10-yard line, he's almost always going to get the ball at least once, if not twice which led him to score 14 touchdowns last year. Facing the Cardinals who have one of the league's worst run defenses, Kyren should be in line for a much better day this week. |
| Wide Receiver | ||||
| Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
| 1 | Cooper Kupp | 19.17 | 7,700 | 21 targets for $7,700 with Puka Nacua out? Don't overthink this one. |
| 2 | Deebo Samuel Sr. | 16.77 | 7,300 | For Deebo Samuel Sr., he's going to take on a lot of the role that Christian McCaffrey provided the 49ers. Last week, we saw Deebo have 9 targets, and was able to carry the ball 8 times for the 49ers. To get a receiver who has 17 opportunities to touch the ball at just 7,300 is a tremendous value. The 49ers will have a much more favorable matchup this week against the Vikings compared to the Jets, which should enable Samuel to find the end-zone which he scored 12 touchdowns last year. |
| 3 | CeeDee Lamb | 20.42 | 9,100 | With the savings that you can find this week, affording Lamb is not out of the question. Lamb was a little quiet last week, but the game was never in question as Dallas got out to an early lead and Cleveland's offense posed little threat. Lamb did have 10 targets in this game, and while it is another difficult matchup, with no Jake Ferguson, Lamb will be asked to do a lot this week. |
| 4 | Allen Lazard | 8.88 | 4,500 | At minimum price, Lazard had 6 receptions for 89 yards and 2 touchdowns. Having the chemistry with Aaron Rodgers should cement him as the firm number two receiver, and if you need the salary relief, paying down to Lazard could allow you to have an absolutely stacked roster this week. |
| 5 | Malik Nabers | 12.86 | 6,400 | We saw Tampa Bay tear apart this Washington defense last week. Washington was the worst secondary in the NFL in 2023, and lost Kendall Fuller in the offseason who was their top cornerback last season. While targeting a Giants receiver always comes with risk because of Daniel Jones, Nabers has the athleticism and big play potential to be the top rookie this season. Nabers led the team with 66 yards including a 25-yard reception. This is a high-risk, high-upside play that could easily be a breakout game for the rookie. |
| 6 | Rashee Rice | 14.87 | 6,900 | Expect Rice to be popular this week as the entire world saw his 103-yard performance on the opening game in Week 1. This week, the Chiefs get another home game against Cincinnati, which should be a very similar matchup to Baltimore as the Bengals defensively looked good in Week 1, but the big question is the offensive output and whether they can force the Chiefs to continue to throw the ball as Joe Burrow and the passing game seemed completely out of synch. For Rice, he's a player who came on very strong at the end of the season averaging 86 receiving yards per game over his final six regular season games including a 127 yard performance against Cincinnati in Week 18 last year. The Week 18 performance is what has him ranked a little lower than most will have him this week, as the Bengals defensively have been looking at this game all offseason knowing it was in Week 2, and may have overlooked New England in Week 1 more than they should have. |
| 7 | DJ Moore | 13.01 | 6,800 | Rome Odunze and Keenan Allen are both questionable for this game, and as bad as Caleb Williams looked in Week 1, he almost certainly will play better in Week 2. The Bears won't have the luxury of being in a defensive battle this week against Houston. They're going to need to throw the ball as Houston has one of the league's best run defenses. Moore is coming off an 8 target performance, and if either Odunze or Allen miss, he very easily could have 10+ targets this week. |
| 8 | Chris Godwin | 12.43 | 6,200 | Godwin looked great in Week 1 and looks to improve in his second season with Baker Mayfield at quarterback. Godwin had 8 receptions for 83 yards and a touchdown last week, but there are some concerns even though he is very cheap at just $6,200. For Godwin, he caught 100% of his targets, and the touchdowns for Godwin have been unpredictable throughout his career as he had just two touchdowns last year. It could be a case of point-chasing as Godwin has averaged just 3.3 touchdowns per season over the last three years. Touchdowns can be unpredictable and Mike Evans saw three targets to Godwin's one in the red zone last week. |
| Tight End | ||||
| Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
| 1 | Travis Kelce | 11.32 | 7,400 | Travis Kelce struggled in Week 1, having just 4 targets in a difficult matchup against Baltimore. Last week, Cincinnati allowed 49 yards to Austin Hooper and Hunter Henry. When it comes to touchdown equity, Kelce has amongst the highest touchdown upside of any tight end on this slate. Kelce finished second in the NFL last season in red zone targets and was the only tight end on this slate to have over 15 red zone targets as he ended the season with 20. This is a week where you can afford to pay up for Kelce this week, and it will likely create some differentiation compared to opponents. |
| 2 | George Kittle | 10.11 | 6,400 | When it comes to the tight end position this week, it is about finding a tight end with upside to differentiate yourself amongst the competition. With Kittle the upside is as high as just about any tight end on this slate, as he had 75 yards or a touchdown in 9 games last season including topping 100 yards in three games last season. With no Christian McCaffrey this week, George Kittle should be a high-risk high-upside play this week. |
| 3 | Trey McBride | 10.53 | 6,200 | McBride got off to a slow start last week as he had just 5 receptions for 30 yards. If there is a positive to take away from last week it is that McBride had 9 targets in that game. The question for McBride is what his role will be in this offense. At just 6.0 yards-per-catch, this is a different offense than last season. Last year, McBride was the primary target and still only averaged 10.2 yards-per-reception. With the team adding Marvin Harrison Jr.. the question for McBride is whether he will be anything beyond a PPR machine which he will need to show improvement as he only had 9 red zone targets all of 2023. |
| Team Defense | ||||
| Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
| 1 | Denver Broncos | 10.12 | 3,400 | To get a team at $3,400 at home facing Justin Fields, feels like a no-brainer. Fields has had turnover and sack issues throughout his career. He fumbled last week, and had multiple fumbles in the pre-season. Denver's defense is not great, and Fields could rack up a significant amount of yards, but at just $3,400, they're simply too cheap this week. |
| 2 | New England Patriots | 10.24 | 3,400 | The Patriots defense looked fantastic last week holding the Bengals to just 10 points. 2023 second-round pick Keion White had 2.5 sacks and a forced fumble last week. Facing a Seattle offense that is without Ken Walker III could force the Seahawks to throw the ball with Geno Smith which this is a 1PM game for the Seahawks traveling across the country which west coast teams historically have struggled with. To get a $3,400 defense facing a quarterback the quality of Geno Smith is going to be a strong consideration every week. |
LINEUPS
SAMPLE ROSTER 1 ($60K) – PRIMARY CASH- (FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 141.01)
Don’t feel great about going McBride over Kittle, but having three 49ers players felt like a little bit too much.
- QB Jayden Daniels- WAS $7,900
- RB Breece Hall, NYJ, $8,500
- RB Rhamondre Stevenson, NE, $6,900
- WR Cooper Kupp, LAR, $7,700
- WR Malik Nabers, NYG, $6,400
- WR Deebo Samuel Sr., SF, $7,300
- TE Trey McBride, ARI, $6,200
- Flex RB Jordan Mason, SF, $5,500
- TD Denver, $3,400
SAMPLE ROSTER 2 ($60K) – Cash Plus Lineup FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 140.7)
A cash plus lineup is one that is designed to be used in something like a 100 player or less contest where 20-30% of the prize pool cashes. These can also be used for 3-person or 5-person contests where the top person wins. Often these will have a heavier emphasis on stacking built into them, but not factoring in roster percentages compared to a true GPP lineup which may avoid some of the higher projected rostered players.
- QB Jayden Daniels- WAS $7,900
- RB Breece Hall, NYJ, $8,500
- RB Zach Chabonnet, SEA, $6,300
- WR Cooper Kupp, LAR, $7,700
- WR Malik Nabers, NYG, $6,400
- WR Rashee Rice, KC, $6,900
- TE Travis Kelce, $7,400
- Flex RB Jordan Mason, SF, $5,500
- TD Denver, $3,400
SAMPLE ROSTER 3 ($60K) – GPP Lineup (FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 141.8)
A GPP lineup is often going to avoid some of the higher rostered players and try to create stacks or game stacks that could pay off. This often is a riskier approach, and is more designed to help you understand the philosophy rather than a direct copy of the lineup. We have a GPP article written by Dan Hindery that I highly recommend if you’re looking for GPP guidance.
- QB Justin Fields, PIT, $7,000
- RB Jonathan Taylor, IND, $8,200
- RB Rhamondre Stevenson, NE, $6,900
- WR Cooper Kupp, LAR, $7,700
- WR Malik Nabers, NYG, $6,400
- WR Deebo Samuel Sr., SF, $7,300
- TE Travis Kelce, KC, $7,400
- Flex RB Jordan Mason, SF, $5,500
- TD New England, $3,400
