No week is more fraught with Close Calls than this one.
Some have already been successfully made. You were able to find your kid a MrBeast Lab Cryo Lab Mystery Collector Figure Playset—whatever the hell that is. You cooked a moist and succulent Christmas turkey. You resisted the urge to strangle Uncle Mel when he started talking about politics after his fifth glass of Chardonnet.
You have made one correct call after another. You are on the proverbial roll.
However, there are still calls to be made. Calls with the highest of stakes. Calls that will mean the difference between championship glory and massive disappointment.
There's just one game left in most fantasy leagues—and that game is for all the marbles. Win it, and you are the champion. Lose, and you're no different than the 10 schmucks who were eliminated before you.
Every lineup call is that much more important. And while starting Saquon Barkley and Ja'Marr Chase doesn't take a whole lot of thought, there are some choices between closely ranked players that are much more difficult decisions. Those decisions will decide who wins championships in 2024.
And it's those close calls that this article aims to aid with.
Every week here at Footballguys, Close Calls will make a case for a pair of closely-ranked fantasy options—and then make the call on which player will be more productive.
For the sake of this exercise, we'll only consider quarterbacks and tight ends outside the top 10, running backs outside the top 20, and wide receivers outside the top 30 in the Footballguys Weekly Rankings.
Time to finish strong.
Close Call: Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis (QB13) vs. Jordan Love, Green Bay (QB16)
The Case for Richardson: Richardson's fantasy value is no secret—he's completing less than 50 percent of his passes, but he has five rushing scores over the past five years. He's also questionable for Week 17 with back and foot injuries, although he told reporters after missing practice Thursday that he intends of play Sunday against the New York Giants.
"From the start of the season, you're going to feel those hits the next day," Richardson said. "It's kind of weird because I was telling my family, like in college I didn't really get sore. But the NFL is a different breed, different game. It's all part of it. You just have to keep adjusting and just keep your body right so you can keep performing."
The Case for Love: The Packers are already in the postseason, but Green Bay cannot catch the Minnesota Vikings and Detroit Lions in the NFC North. There's still plenty for Love and the Packers to play for though—such as staying away from the NFC's No. 7 seed and a trip to Philadelphia to face a dangerous Eagles team.
The Packers can also muck things up for their rival, and while Green Bay lost at home to the Vikings back in Week 4, the Packers game Minnesota all they could handle at Lambeau Field. Love threw three interceptions in that loss, but he also threw for 389 yards and four scores on the way to a third-place finish among quarterbacks for the week.
The Verdict: Love—and the answer would be the same if Richardson was 100 percent healthy. The Minnesota Vikings are 30th in the NFL in pass defense, surrendering 248.7 yards per game. If the Packers are going to win this game, it will be throwing the ball—and that should mean a big afternoon from Love.
Close Call: Tyjae Spears, Tennessee (RB26) vs. Kendre Miller, New Orleans (RB28)
The Case for Spears: Spears wasn't especially effective on the ground last week, averaging just 2.9 yards per carry. But the second-year pro found the end zone twice, and with Tony Pollard still limited by an ankle injury, Michael Fabiano of Sports Illustrated believes that Spears could be a season-saver for fantasy managers in Week 17.
"Spears has been on fire over the last two weeks, scoring 48.8 fantasy points," he said. "He also saw a 29 percent touch share last week, which was more than Tony Pollard. Spears has also been getting red-zone work, seeing eight looks in the last two weeks. Spears is a nice flex option with a matchup against a vulnerable Jaguars run defense next on the schedule."
The Case for Miller: Miller was the ostensible lead back for the Saints last week against the Green Bay Packers, but it didn't amount to much—31 total yards on 10 touches. However, it's worth nothing that the game script for the Saints in that game went sideways from the jump. The team should be more competitive this week against the Las Vegas Raiders.
For the season, the Raiders have actually been decent against the run, allowing just 117.9 yards per game on the ground. Vegas is also a middling matchup for running backs from a fantasy perspective. But with the Saints chewed to pieces in the passing game, New Orleans will lean heavily on the ground game for as long as they can.
The Verdict: Spears. If Pollard doesn't play, this is a landslide, but even sharing touches, Spears is the play. The Saints utilized a three-headed backfield committee against the Packers, so Miller's no lock to see more work than in Week 16. And the Jaguars are a fantastic matchup for opposing running backs—no AFC team has allowed more PPR points to the position this season.
Close Call: DeVonta Smith, Philadelphia (WR35) vs. Marvin Harrison Jr., Arizona (WR36)
The Case for Smith: In each of the past two seasons, Smith has surpassed 1,000 receiving yards. There likely won't be a third straight with Smith sitting at 713 yards for the season. But while Smith's season-long numbers aren't great, he's been hot since returning to action—15th in PPR points among receivers over the past three weeks.
There's more than a little uncertainty at quarterback in Philadelphia right now, and frankly, Jalen Hurts will probably sit in Week 17. But Smith caught six passes on eight targets last week with Kenny Pickett under center, and this week, the Eagles face a Cowboys team allowing the ninth-most PPR points to wide receivers.
The Case for Harrison: Harrison hasn't been the difference-maker as a rookie he was expected to be—he's 36th in PPR points among wide receivers, Harrison ranks 58th in yards per route run and 68th in catchable target rate according to Player Profiler. However, Yahoo's Sal Vetri wrote that Harrison has a real chance to end his inaugural season with a bang.
"This week, Harrison will face the Rams," he said. "L.A. not only allows the second-most receiving yards per play, but earlier this season, Harrison had his best game against the Rams, all the way back in Week 2, when he totaled 130 yards and two touchdowns. All this production came in the first half and Harrison finished as the WR1 overall on the week."
The Verdict: Harrison. Vetri makes a good point about the rookie's outburst against the Rams earlier this season. But basically, it's a matter of concern at quarterback with the Eagles. It's not hard to imagine Philadelphia riding Saquon Barkley Sunday, and last week against the Commanders Pickett clearly favored A.J. Brown.
Close Call: Jameson Williams, Detroit (WR31) vs. Jayden Reed, Green Bay (WR38)
The Case for Williams: In his third season, Williams has come into his own with the Lions—he's 110 yards away from his first 1,000-yard season, Williams is averaging a whopping 18.9 yards per reception and the young wideout has come into his own as a home-run compliment to superstar Amon-Ra St. Brown.
When last we saw Williams, he was having his best game of the season, tying a season-high in catches while setting a new high-water mark for receiving yards with 147. The 49ers are dead last in the league in PPR points allowed to wide receivers. But Williams' propensity for long touchdowns offers him a measure of immunity to bad matchups.
The Case for Reed: The wide receivers for the Green Bay Packers have been making fantasy managers crazy all season long. But it's Reed who leads Packers wideouts in targets (69), receptions (52), receiving yards (803) and receiving scores. If there's a No. 1 receiver for the Packers, then Reed likely holds the title.
It has been a while since the Packers and Vikings first met, but when they did, Reed had a huge game—eight targets, seven receptions, 139 yards, and a touchdown. That week against a Minnesota defense that has allowed the most PPR points in the league to wide receivers, no wideout in the NFC had a better stat line.
The Verdict: Reed. A measure of reluctance to trust a Packers receiver in a must-win game is understandable. But fantasy matchups don't get any better for the position than the Vikings. We have already seen Reed light the Vikes up. And there's a real chance that Packers wideout Christian Watson will miss Week 17, which could mean a target bump.
Close Call: Tucker Kraft, Green Bay (TE11) vs. Chig Okonkwo, Tennessee (TE15)
The Case for Kraft: Through 16 weeks, Kraft is fantasy's eighth-ranked tight end in PPR points, averaging just a hair under 10 points a game. Kraft ranks outside the top 20 in targets at the position, but the second-year pro is eighth among all tight ends in receiving yards, and his seven receiving scores lead the team and ranks third behind Baltimore's Mark Andrews and San Francisco's George Kittle.
The Vikings haven't been as kind to opposing tight ends as to wide receivers this season. In their first meeting this season, however, Kraft had himself a day—nine targets, six receptions, 53 yards, and a touchdown.
The Case for Okonkwo: From a season-long perspective, it's not easy to really make a case for Okonkwo—his 47 catches for 437 yards and a pair of touchdowns rank the 26-year-old outside the top 20 in PPR points. He also plays for a Tennessee Titans offense that ranks 26th in the league in passing offense at just 194 yards per game.
However, in words that have rarely been uttered over the course of human history, Mason Rudolph has been a big boost to Okonkwo's fantasy value. Over the past two weeks, Okonkwo has been targeted a whopping 21 times, catching 17 of those targets for 140 yards. Over that span, he was the highest-scoring tight end in fantasy.
The Verdict: Okonkwo—God help us all. It's a matter of targets. Okonkwo has gotten peppered with them from the moment Rudolph took over for Will Levis. This week, the Titans face a Jacksonville Jaguars team that has been awful in about every way a defense can be—including giving up the seventh-most PPR points to tight ends in 2024.
Gary Davenport is a two-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association Football Writer of the Year. Follow him on Twitter (Can't make him call it X) at @IDPSharks.
