It's the close calls that so often determine the difference between victory in defeat. No one has to tell fantasy managers to start Philadelphia Eagles running back Saquon Barkley or Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase. But it's those few points between similarly ranked fantasy options that can mean the difference between a win and a loss.
And in Week 14, that could mean an awful lot.
Sure, there are some teams who are locked into the playoffs regardless of what happens this week. For some other sad sacks, the regular season ends after this week win or lose.
If it makes you feel any better, I'm in that boat in more than a few places. 2024 has been a year.
But for quite a few folks, the playoffs have essentially already started. Find a path to victory this week, and they will play on in Week 15. Lose, and the season ends in an even more depressing fashion than tomato cans who have been out of it for weeks.
For those "win and in" managers, there's no margin for error. They need to hit on as many lineup spots as possible—especially the tougher decisions. The Close Calls.
That rather felt like a segue.
Every week here at Footballguys, Close Calls will make a case for a pair of closely-ranked fantasy options—and then make the call on which player will be more productive.
For the sake of this exercise, we'll only consider quarterbacks and tight ends outside the top 10, running backs outside the top 20, and wide receivers outside the top 30 in the Footballguys Weekly Rankings.
Enough intro-ing. Let's get to it.
Close Call: Justin Herbert, LA Chargers (QB17) vs. Jameis Winston, Cleveland (QB18)
The Case for Herbert: To make a case for Herbert, we first have to engage in a little selective amnesia—last week's clunker by the Chargers offense in Atlanta never happened. Los Angeles wasn't held to 187 yards of offense, and Herbert didn't throw for just 147 yards without a touchdown pass. It never happened.
We have seen Herbert post far better numbers this season—over a month-long stretch from Week 9 to Week 12, Herbert was sixth in fantasy points among quarterbacks. With running back J.K. Dobbins on the shelf, the Chargers' ground game has evaporated. If the Bolts have a chance against Kansas City, it lies with Herbert throwing the ball.
The Case for Winston: Um, did you watch last week's loss to the Denver Broncos? In that game, Winston set a new franchise record for passing yards in a game by a Browns quarterback, torching the Denver Broncos defense for 497 yards and four scores. In many scoring systems, Winston was Week 13's highest-scoring quarterback.
To be fair, Winston also threw three interceptions against Denver—two of which were returned for touchdowns. Winston's numbers two weeks ago against the Steelers were more modest—219 passing yards with an interception. But that game happened in a driving snowstorm, and the weather this week in Pittsburgh is supposed to be relatively pleasant for this time of year.
The Verdict: Winston. Herbert has a much better matchup—the Steelers are actually dead last in fantasy points per game allowed to quarterbacks this year. But the Broncos rank outside the top 25 in that regard, and Winston just roasted them for almost five bills. Counting on Jameis Winston for a playoff spot—welcome to 2024.
Close Call: Chuba Hubbard, Carolina (RB22) vs. Isiah Pacheco, Kansas City (RB26)
The Case for Hubbard: Not much has gone right for the Panthers this season, but the play of Hubbard has been a bright spot—so much so that he earned a contract extension during the season. Hubbard has averaged a robust 4.9 yards per carry, and with 81 more yards on the ground, he will record the first 1,000-yard season of his NFL career.
Philadelphia's top-ranked defense hasn't been easy to run on—the Eagles are seventh in the league in run defense, allowing less than 105 yards on the ground per game. But if the Panthers have any hope of pulling off a massive upset in Philadelphia, it lies with using Hubbard and the rushing attack to keep the Eagles offense off the field.
The Case for Pacheco: After a lengthy stint on injured reserve with a broken leg, Pacheco returned to action last week, carrying the ball seven times for 44 yards in limited action. Perhaps most importantly, Chiefs head coach Andy Reid told reporters that the third-year running back came out of the game none the worse for wear.
"He ended up with 20-something plays," Reid said. "Wanted to get him in the mix, caught up with the speed of the game. We were thinking around 20 plays; didn't necessarily care about the carries or not, but it worked out that way though. He came out healthy, feeling good, no setbacks."
The Verdict: Pacheco. As good as Hubbard has been this season, his 12 carries last year were his fewest since Week 2. He also lost a critical fumble in an overtime loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. These are two backs heading in opposite directions, and while Pacheco's matchup isn't especially good, it's better than Hubbard's.
Close Call: DeVonta Smith, Philadelphia (WR34) vs. Adam Thielen, Carolina (WR36)
The Case for Smith: Every fantasy manager wants to welcome an injured player back into the fold just in time for the playoffs. That's the case with Smith—after missing multiple weeks with a hamstring injury, the fourth-year pro carries no injury designation into Week 14 and will play against the Carolina Panthers.
Said Panthers have not exactly been a defensive dynamo this year. Only the New Orleans Saints have surrendered more yards per game than the Panthers this season, and Carolina is the only team in the league allowing over 30 points per game. Imagining a long Smith touchdown in an Eagles blowout doesn't take a lot of stretching.
The Case for Thielen: Thielen has had injury issues of his own this season—the NFL's oldest active wideout hadn't played since Week 3 before a Week 12 return to the playing field. Last week, Thielen was a top-10 fantasy receiver, catching eight passes for 99 yards and a score against the Buccaneers.
Thielen's matchup this week isn't as favorable—the Eagles have turned a pass defense that was a massive liability a year ago into an asset. But while the Eagles have the league's No. 3 pass defense this season, this is a game that could get lopsided and force the Panthers to the air with abandon. After halftime could come garbage time—and garbage time can be fun.
The Verdict: Thielen. You read that right. In a vacuum, it wouldn't be close. But football isn't played in a vacuum. The Eagles are the most run-heavy team in the league. Smith hasn't had eight targets in a game since September. And the Eagles will all but certainly be playing from ahead. Fantasy managers don't just want a long score from Smith. They will likely need one for a decent stat line.
Jaylen Waddle, Miami (WR34) vs. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Tennessee (WR36)
The Case for Waddle: The Miami passing game hasn't been as prolific as we expected in 2024, and Waddle has been no exception. Simply put, opposing defenses are making a concerted effort to stop Tyreek and Waddle from getting behind them, utilizing two deep safeties with regularity. Both players have suffered in fantasy as a result.
But as we saw just a couple of weeks ago, that strategy doesn't always necessarily work—Waddle caught eight passes for 144 yards and a score in Week 12 against the Patriots. The Jets aren't a favorable matchup for wide receivers, but star cornerback Sauce Gardner (hamstring) is unlikely to play, which changes that dynamic.
The Case for Westbrook-Ikhine: There hasn't been a bigger surprise at wide receiver over the second half of the season than Westbrook-Ikhine, a top-15 fantasy option over the last month. As Ted Chmyz wrote for Fantasy SP, Westbrook-Ikhine isn't just doing it with long touchdowns, either.
"His actual volume usage is trending in the right direction," he said. "He posted a season-high 20% target share in Week 12, then followed it up with a team-leading 19% and season-high eight targets in Week 13. He also posted an absolutely elite 95% route participation rate last week. This increased usage sets up perfectly for NWI heading into a dream matchup with the Jaguars, who have been far and away the worst pass defense in the NFL this season."
The Verdict: Westbrook-Ikhine. That's where we are in 2024. Yes, Westbrook-Ikhine hasn't had more than three catches in a game over the past three. But he found the end zone in all three contests, and while the Dolphins get one of the worst fantasy matchups for wide receivers, the Titans draw the best.
Pat Freiermuth, Pittsburgh (TE15) vs. Kyle Pitts, Atlanta (TE16)
The Case for Freiermuth: Freiermuth has been relatively quiet for much of the season, but he's heating up in recent weeks. Two weeks ago, in the snow against the Browns, Freiermuth had four grabs for 59 yards. That was followed by his best game of the year—season-highs across the board in a shootout win over the Cincinnati Bengals.
Freiermuth was targeted seven times against Cincinnati, catching six passes for 68 yards and a touchdown. Given the way that Jameis Winston threw the ball against Denver, this figures to be a higher-scoring game than the first meeting between these teams—and that could mean a healthy target share for Freiermuth.
The Case for Pitts: It's getting harder and harder to make a case for Pitts—last week was the second doughnut of the season for the earliest tight end ever drafted. But while speaking to reporters after last week's loss to the Chargers, Atlanta head coach Raheem Morris acknowledged to reporters that both player and team need to do a better job getting Pitts involved in the offense.
"I would like to see Kyle get more production," Morris said postgame Sunday. "I would like to see him have more opportunities. Whether it's us getting it to him or him doing a better job, we'll figure those things out as we go."
The Verdict: Freiermuth. It doesn't matter that Pitts has the better matchup. Or that he's supposedly the more talented player. We just can't do it with Pitts anymore. Yes, there was a short hot streak mid-season. But there has also been five games this season where Pitts has two or fewer receptions. Five.
Gary Davenport is a two-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association Football Writer of the Year. Follow him on Twitter (Can't make him call it X) at @IDPSharks.
