This is a week replete with close calls.
There was the close call where you almost grabbed a spoonful of Aunt Millie's mystery goo instead of Mom's stuffing (Love Millie, but the woman can't cook). There was the close call where you almost went for what may have been a lethal fifth slice of pie (four is enough, bud).
Almost talked to Uncle Carl, too. Dodged one there.
Then there are the close calls that could define the 2024 fantasy football season.
At this point, there is no shortage of fantasy managers who have no margin for error. Lose another game, and that's that—no playoffs. That makes every lineup decision all the more important. And while some calls are obvious, for some the margin between options is razor-thin.
That's where Close Calls here at Footballguys comes in.
For the sake of this exercise, we'll only consider quarterbacks and tight ends outside the top 10, running backs outside the top 20, and wide receivers outside the top 30 in the Footballguys Weekly Rankings. Help you make sure the coin flip guys turn out tails.
After all, tails never fails.
Close Call: C.J. Stroud, Houston (QB11) vs. Sam Darnold, Minnesota (QB12)
The Case for Stroud: Stroud has admittedly struggled of late—he's 20th among quarterbacks in fantasy points over the past month. But as Tristan Cockroft wrote for ESPN, the Jacksonville Jaguars could be just what the doctor ordered to get Stroud back on track.
"(Robert) Woods and (Tank) Dell are now healthy," he said, "and this is the highest-ceiling matchup remaining on Stroud's schedule. For some history, three of his six best fantasy point totals have come against the Jaguars, and he has averaged 25.0 points against them. The Jaguars have also allowed a league-most seven games of 20-plus points to quarterbacks, including Stroud's season-best 23.50 in Week 4."
The Case for Darnold: There hasn't been a more surprising success story under center this year than Darnold—after 12 weeks he has guided the Vikings to a 9-2 record and ranks 10th in fantasy points among quarterbacks. Darnold told reporters that he has simply tried not to overthink things in 2024.
"I really do think it's as simple as that," Darnold said. "Just not trying to do too much. If I feel like I've got to scramble out of the pocket, and if it's not there, just throw it away. Or, if sometimes I need to take a sack, I'm willing to do that. Continue to play within the system and within the game, and we'll continue to play solid as an offense."
The Call: Stroud. Darnold has played better of late, but Stroud is the better player. And more importantly, he has the better matchup. There isn't a team in the league surrendering more fantasy points per game to quarterbacks this year than the Jaguars—and Houston has to be seething after last week's upset loss to the Titans.
Close Call: Rhamondre Stevenson, New England (RB26) vs. Najee Harris, Pittsburgh (RB27)
The Case for Stevenson: For starters, let's just throw out last week's matchup with the Miami Dolphins, where Stevenson had just 13 yards on eight carries. That was a contest where game script got out of hand in a hurry—down 31-0 to the Dolphins, the ground game went out the window. Stevenson's production went with it.
But in each of the two games preceding last week's loss, Stevenson carried the ball 20 times. The fourth-year veteran has found the end zone six times on the ground this season. Stevenson hasn't been a league-winner, but he's a low-end RB2 for the season who has posted multiple top-10 weekly finishes.
The Case for Harris: Like Stevenson, Harris had something of a down Week 12, managing just 54 total yards in Pittsburgh's surprising loss to the Cleveland Browns. But the bruising tailback had been on a nice rip before that—from Week 6 to Week 11, Harris averaged over 15 PPR points per game.
It's a safe bet that the Steelers want to get the ground game going this week against a Cincinnati run defense allowing just under 130 yards per game. That should mean a healthy dose of both Harris and Jaylen Warren Sunday—especially if the Steelers can get a lead. The potential for a top-15 week is there.
The Verdict: Stevenson. Neither of these guys inspire a ton of confidence from fantasy managers, especially after last week's clunkers. But the Patriots take on a Colts team that has surrendered the fifth-most PPR points per game to running backs in 2024, and the Pats actually have a shot at at least neutral game scripts for much of that game.
Close Call: Nick Chubb, Cleveland (RB31) vs. Gus Edwards, LA Chargers (RB35)
The Case for Chubb: Chubb clearly isn't the back we're used to seeing—he's averaging just 3.0 yards per carry, over two yards per carry under his career average. But last week against the Steelers, Chubb scored twice, and he wrote in the Player's Tribune that he won't be satisfied until he's back to his old self.
"I can't stop until I prove to everybody that I'm the undisputed best running back in this league, and I definitely can't stop until we get the Browns back to the top of the AFC. It's been too damn long," he said.
The Case for Edwards: Edwards has been thrust into the starting lineup in Los Angeles by the knee injury suffered last week by J.K. Dobbins against the Baltimore Ravens. Edwards hasn't been especially good in his first year with the Bolts, but Michael Fabiano of Sports Illustrated sees some "sleeper" appeal with Edwards in Week 13.
"The Chargers will be without J.K. Dobbins this week due to an injured knee, so Edwards is in line to see a significant increase in carries against the Falcons," he wrote. "Their defense can be a bit vulnerable to running backs, allowing nine players to beat them for more than 15 fantasy points. That includes three runners who have scored over 21 points since Week 4."
The Verdict: Chubb. Atlanta may have been generous to running backs for the season, but for the season, the Denver Broncos are actually a slightly better matchup. There's also the matter of volume. Chubb is going to get it. But we don't really know how the Bolts will divvy up backfield touches in a Dobbins-less backfield.
Close Call: Jerry Jeudy, Cleveland (WR31) vs. Marvin Harrison Jr., Arizona (WR33)
The Case for Jeudy: Jameis Winston to Jerry Jeudy isn't exactly the pitch-catch combo Browns fans expected in 2024. But over the past month the former first-round pick of the Denver Broncos is seventh in PPR points per game among receivers. While addressing the media, Broncos head coach Sean Payton said he knows his defense will have its hands full in Week 13.
"Jameis (Winston's) personality is infectious," Payton said. "He'll tell somebody, ‘Hey, go get open and I'm going to find you.' So that's what a receiver wants. Those guys have had a—I would say—a good connection. You see it just in the limited games that Jameis has played. From a talent standpoint, (Jeudy) has great hips, great transition, and he has great football IQ."
The Case for Harrison: Harrison hasn't been the instant force in fantasy that so many expected—he's WR29 in PPR points after 12 weeks. As a matter of fact, some fantasy analysts have gone so far as to throw around the "B" word with Harrison—including Dalton Del Don of Yahoo.
"Rookie wide receivers typically perform better late in the season, and the Cardinals' WR schedule goes from the third toughest up until now to the sixth easiest moving forward" he said. "Still — Harrison Jr. is on track to be one of this year's biggest fantasy busts."
It feels like Harrison needs a better advocate. That case sucked.
The Verdict: Harrison—even after all that. Yes, there's the revenge game factor with Jeudy. And Jameis Winston will target a wideout whether he's open or not. But Patrick Surtain II and the Broncos pass defense are among the best in the NFL. Meanwhile, the Cardinals face a Vikings defense surrendering the third-most PPR points per game to wide receivers. Harrison was overvalued in 2024. But in Week 13, he'll look like the difference-maker fantasy managers expected.
Close Call: T.J. Hockenson, Minnesota (TE12) vs. Mark Andrews, Baltimore (TE14)
The Case for Hockenson: Um, last week? In an overtime win over Chicago in Week 12, Hockenson looked the part of the elite fantasy option he was prior to tearing up his knee. Seven catches on nine targets for 114 yards. Better yet, he looked himself—when tight ends average over 15 yards a grab, that's what you call stretching the field.
The nine targets are as encouraging as the yards per reception. The Sam Darnold Resurrection Tour has happened largely without Hockenson in the lineup. It didn't take Darnold long to figure out that his new No. 1 tight end is yet another asset in the passing game. Kinda surprised Darnold hasn't burst into flames—as it happens, good players catching the ball makes throwing it easier. Who knew?
The Case for Andrews: Not long ago, there was a legitimate conversation about whether Andrews was washed. Toast. Two days past turkey sandwiches. He had vanished from Baltimore's passing game. But as so often happens in fantasy football, the funeral was held before the guest of honor actually, you know, died.
However, since Week 6, Andrews has ranked sixth in PPR points among tight ends, with four games with at least 14 points. His target and yardage numbers may not be as steady or high as fantasy managers would like them to be, but this much is clear—if it's third and goal at the eight-yard line, Lamar Jackson's first, second, and third reads are all Andrews.
The Verdict: Andrews and it's 100 percent hunch. Both tight ends face uphill battles in bad matchups for the position this season. However, while Hockenson's usage last week was encouraging, Jackson and Andrews have a much stronger rapport. That's going to matter in this week's showdown with the Eagles.
Gary Davenport is a two-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association Football Writer of the Year. Follow him on Twitter (Can't make him call it X) at @IDPSharks.
