There’s only one thing more dangerous than a cornered animal—a cornered fantasy manager.
And quite a few are boxed in as Week 12 gets underway. Fantasy squads sitting at 6-5 or 5-6 (or even worse, 4-7) don’t have much margin for error. Take another loss, and that could be that—the end of the road for any aspirations of playing on past the end of the regular season.
Every fantasy point could be the difference between that season-killing loss and the win that keeps playoff hopes afloat. Every lineup decision becomes a vitally important one.
And the close calls? The razor-thin margin guys? Those decisions are exponentially more nerve-wracking—especially in a week where six teams are on bye.
Thanks, NFL. That’s a banger of an idea you all had. Why not eight?
At this pressure-packed point in the season, fantasy managers need every bit of assistance they can get.
And Close Calls here at Footballguys is here to help.
Every week, we're going to look at some of the closest calls of the week. Make the case for both players. And then offer up this analyst's take on which player is the correct play.
For the sake of this exercise, we'll only consider quarterbacks and tight ends outside the top 10, running backs outside the top 20, and wide receivers outside the top 30 in Footballguys' Weekly Rankings. And if you’re 8-3 and still looking for a hand getting that first-round bye?
We’ll lend one. But there may be a little grumbling from a certain writer who wishes he had more 8-3 wins and less 3-8 ones.
Close Call: Patrick Mahomes II, Kansas City (QB11) vs. C.J. Stroud, Houston (QB13)
The Case for Mahomes: Fantasy managers admittedly haven’t gotten what they expected from Mahomes in 2024. His ADP at Fantasy Pros was second off the board among quarterbacks. Eleven weeks into the 2024 season, Mahomes is 15th in fantasy points among quarterbacks and 18th in fantasy points per game.
However, things have been tracking in a more positive direction—after throwing three touchdown passes in last week’s loss to the Buffalo Bills, Mahomes is eighth among all fantasy quarterbacks over the last month. Mahomes also draws a Carolina Panthers team in Week 12 allowing the seventh-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks.
The Case for Stroud: It didn’t take to see what the impact of Nico Collins’ return would be to the Houston offense. The play was negated by an ineligible man downfield, but Houston’s first offensive play last week against the Dallas Cowboys was a 70-yard scoring strike to the young star wideout.
Stroud actually didn’t throw a touchdown pass against the Cowboys, and he hasn’t thrown three in a game since an October 13 win over the New England Patriots. But we have seen what Stroud and the Houston offense can do—and as that offense gets healthier it’s only a matter of time until it blows up against someone.
The Verdict: Mahomes. It’s mostly a matter of matchup—the Titans are terrible, but they actually lead the league in total defense and rank 20th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks this season. The Chiefs are also no doubt in a bad mood after last week’s setback in Buffalo.
Close Call: D'Andre Swift, Chicago (RB21) vs. Tony Pollard, Tennessee (RB22)
The Case for Swift: There was some question as to how Swift would fare in 2024 without the benefit of the Eagles’ outstanding offensive line. For the most part, Swift has acquitted himself well—he’s 17th in PPR points among running backs, amassing almost 900 total yards and five scores to date.
Swift has maintained a steady workload—he’s logged at least 15 total touches in every game since the season opener. Last time out, Swift averaged over five yards per carry, topped 80 total yards and found the end zone. He has been the most consistent part of Chicago’s offense in 2024.
The Case for Pollard: For the season. Pollard has been decent in his first season with the Titans—he’s averaged 4.3 yards per carry, caught 30 passes and topped 100 total yards three times despite sometimes splitting work with Tyjae Spears. Pollard hasn’t been great, but he’s been good.
OK, he’s been good except for last week’s loss to the Minnesota Vikings, where Pollard managed all of 15 yards on the ground on nine carries. However, with Tyjae Spears (concussion) banged up again, Pollard should see a featured back workload against the Houston Texans.
The Verdict: Pollard. It’s a combination of two factors. The first is Spears' injury and the increase in touches it could mean for Pollard in Week 12. The second is the Minnesota Vikings defense that Pollard faced last week and Swift plays this week. No team in the NFL has given up fewer yards per game on the ground this season.
Close Call: Austin Ekeler, Washington (RB26) vs. Javonte Williams, Denver (RB27)
The Case for Ekeler: Ekeler has quietly been a surprisingly large part of Washington’s explosive offense—the 29-year-old has topped 675 total yards and ranks among the top 25 running backs in PPR points. The veteran running back told reporters he’s just doing his part to help the team.
“We have players that are making plays all over the place,” he said. “That's something that we thought coming in, ‘Hey, we got a lot of players that we’re bringing in the leaders from all over the place to come in and make plays, and now it's actually starting to come alive and throw Jayden in the mix as well.”
The Case for Williams: Williams had one of the best “angry runs” of the 2024 season last week—a score in which the Denver offense essentially shoved the fourth-year veteran into the end zone. Williams finished that game with 13 touches for 87 yards and that score, finishing the week 11th in PPR points.
Williams’ carry-share has admittedly been all over the place—in the long-ago days of Week 10, Williams carried the ball all of once. But as the Broncos prepare to take on a Raiders team surrendering over 125 rushing yards per game, it’s become quite clear that Williams is the best running back on the roster.
The Verdict: Ekeler. Partly, it’s matchup—the Dallas run defense is even worse than the Raiders, surrendering 151.0 yards per game on the ground. It’s also a matter of the running back carousel in Denver—Sean Payton is a hard man to trust in a must-win week.
Close Call: Michael Pittman Jr, Indianapolis (WR34) vs. Jaylen Waddle, Miami (WR36)
The Case for Pittman: This is a close call between a couple of wide receivers who haven’t sniffed expectations this season. But while the numbers haven’t been there for Pittman this year, that’s hardly solely on Pittman. The reality is that whether it has been Anthony Richardson or Joe Flacco under center, the Indy passing game has been stuck in neutral most of the season.
Last week, however, Richardson had easily his best game throwing the ball of the season, and while Pittman’s five catches for 41 yards weren’t a huge number, it was absolutely a step in the right direction. The Detroit Lions are a time that can be thrown on, and Indy will all but certainly be playing from behind.
The Case for Waddle: Frankly, it’s not easy to make a case for Waddle this year—he has barely cracked 400 receiving yards for the season and hasn’t had a 100-yard game since Week 1. Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel admitted to reporters that getting Waddle and Tyreek Hill going this season has been tricky with opponents paying so much attention to them.
"I think every (opponent) goes with that objective because they know how good they are," McDaniel said. "They (defenses) have acknowledged sometimes that they've minimized their involvement by certain things they can do in their game, So, you have to continue to problem solve. Sometimes you think that you have solved the problem, and then you find out you haven't."
The Verdict: Waddle. This is admittedly a gut call. Pittman has the better fantasy matchup—the Lions have surrendered the fourth-most PPR points per game to wide receivers. But Waddle has to get loose for a long one at some point. He just has to. If you need ceiling, Waddle’s the play.
Close Call: Tucker Kraft, Green Bay (TE14) vs. T.J. Hockenson, Minnesota (TE15)
The Case for Kraft: In a season filled with misery at the tight end position, Kraft has been a pleasant surprise, ranking among the top 12 tight ends in PPR points. With that said, the second-year pro’s last game wasn’t his best work—he was blanked on just one target against the Chicago Bears.
Unfortunately, that’s just the nature of Green Bay’s offense—given all the young weapons Jordan Love has, their target shares tend to fluctuate a lot. Still, as recently as a few weeks ago, Kraft turned just three looks into 78 yards and a score, and Love likes looking Kraft’s way in the redzone.
The Case For Hockenson: It’s hardly surprising that Hockenson has been up and down in his limited action this season—he’s working his way back into shape after missing much of the season with an ACL tear. However, Michael Florio of NFL.com expects Hockenson to rebound from last week’s clunker Sunday against the Bears.
“Last week was disappointing fantasy-wise for Hockenson (3.3 points). That will happen with a player working his way back from injury. However, Hockenson caught eight passes for 72 yards the week prior, proving he has a high ceiling. The Bears rank in the middle of the pack against tight ends, and the upside keeps him in play, especially with six teams on a bye.”
The Verdict: Hockenson. Who am I to argue with Florio? Kraft has had his moments this season, but he’s been rather big-play dependent and as a much lower fantasy floor as a result. With Hockenson also having a higher ceiling and a superior matchup, this close call really isn’t that close.
Gary Davenport is a two-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association Football Writer of the Year. Follow him on Twitter (Can't make him call it X) at @IDPSharks.
