"Pressure, pushin' down on me, pressin' down on you, no man ask for."
Deep, ain't it? Wrote it myself. It's totally not the lyrics for a song from 1981 by David Bowie and Queen.
OK, so maybe it is—but it certainly applies to many fantasy football managers this time of year. For a lot of teams sitting at 6-4, 5-5, or 4-6, the next four weeks of the fantasy regular season will determine whether they move on or the campaign ends when the regular season does. In some respects, the playoffs have already started. The next loss could be the one that sinks the team for good.
Every point matters now more than ever. Every lineup decision is critical. And the tough calls between closely-ranked players are both more maddening than ever and more important than ever.
That's where Close Calls at Footballguys comes in.
Every week, we're going to look at some of the closest calls of the week. Make the case for both players. And then offer up this analyst's take on which player is the correct play.
For the sake of this exercise, we'll only consider quarterbacks and tight ends outside the top 10, running backs outside the top 20, and wide receivers outside the top 30 in Footballguys' Weekly Rankings. If your team is loaded with must-start stars, it must be nice.
Hoo-freaking-ray for you. We should have a party. With a cake.
Close Call: Russell Wilson, Pittsburgh (QB16) vs. Jordan Love, Green Bay (QB18)
The Case for Wilson: Since taking over for Justin Fields at quarterback, Wilson has unlocked a new dimension of the Steelers offense. Last week was Wilson's worst game as a Steeler in terms of yardage (195) and completion percentage, but he made up for that by tossing three touchdown passes.
This week, Wilson and the Steelers battle their arch-rivals for supremacy in the AFC North. The Baltimore Ravens have been quite the Jekyll-and-Hyde defense this season—while no team in the NFL has surrendered fewer rushing yards per game, no team has allowed more passing yards—almost 295 per game.
The Case for Love: Last week's bye came at the perfect time for Love—after missing time earlier in the season with an MCL sprain, he picked up a groin injury a few weeks ago. Now that he's had an extra week to get right, Love is off the injury report and fully healthy again.
Granted, the Bears aren't a great fantasy matchup for quarterbacks—no team has allowed fewer fantasy points per game to the position this season. But Love has shown both this year and last that when he's healthy and has his full complement of wide receivers, he can light up any defense in the league. He also has over 22 fantasy points in each of his last two meetings with the Bears.
The Verdict: Wilson. It's possible that Love will buck the bad matchup and post a decent stat line this week. But the Ravens have been roasted through the air by just about every quarterback they have faced this season. Wilson has his best game of the season in arguably the best matchup of Week 11.
Close Call: Rico Dowdle, Dallas (RB22) vs. Nick Chubb, Cleveland (RB24)
The Case for Dowdle: Last week's loss to the Philadelphia Eagles was admittedly a disaster all the way around. But the week before, Dowdle amassed 107 total yards as the Cowboys lead back, and while speaking to reporters, head coach Mike McCarthy made it clear that for the rest of the season, the Dak Prescott-less Cowboys will lean on Dowdle and the ground game.
"Definitely, you have to get him the ball," McCarthy told reporters about Dowdle. "That's my focus to continue to get him opportunities. He's the lead back."
It's about the only thing passing for good news in Dallas offensively right now.
The Case for Chubb: To say that Chubb hasn't looked like himself lately is an understatement—in three games, he has averaged less than three yards per carry. But as Marcas Grant wrote at NFL.com, this week's date with the Saints could be a "get right" moment.
"If there's a week for the veteran back to look more like his old self, it's against the New Orleans Saints," he said. "Just four teams have allowed more rushing yards than the Saints this season, and only three have given up more rushing scores. With the Saints offense being decidedly lackluster this season, game script shouldn't be an issue."
The Verdict: Chubb. As bad as Chubb and the Cleveland offense have been of late, it's just impossible to put any faith in Dowdle and the Cowboys after what we saw last week. Throw in a matchup with a Texans team that is allowing the fifth-fewest PPR points per game to running backs, and Dowdle's a pass if you can help it.
Close Call: Brian Thomas Jr., Jacksonville (WR33) vs. Jaylen Waddle, Miami (WR37)
The Case for Thomas: Thomas exploded into fantasy prominence early in his rookie season—he was a top-10 fantasy wideout over the first five weeks of the season. Thomas has been quiet of late, but Jaguars quarterback Mac Jones said that he intends to make every effort to get the youngster more involved in Jacksonville's offense.
"I definitely want to get him the ball and just stick to my keys as well and get him going and get the whole team going." Jones told reporters. "I think, really, as the game goes along, if you're moving the ball well, everyone's getting it. It's just sometimes tough in the last couple of weeks just not having as many plays and trying to get into that rhythm, so we're definitely trying to find that."
The Case for Waddle: Waddle's numbers this year have been very un-Waddle—one game all season long with double-digit fantasy points and a WR61 fantasy ranking. While speaking to reporters, Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa said vertical passes have been hard to come by this season.
"We just run whatever is called," said Tagovailoa. "If Mike calls for a shot play and we check it down, you know, that's just what the play entails for us to do. So, it's not like we haven't been trying to stretch the ball down the field. That's just what the defenses have been showing us."
The Verdict: Waddle. Waddle only had three catches last week, but one was a 36-yarder—the long ball that has been so absent from Miami's offense of late. The Raiders have been solid against the pass this season, but Thomas is awfully hard to trust with Mac "Wormburner" Jones under center in Jacksonville.
Close Call: Tyler Lockett, Seattle (WR38) vs. Jerry Jeudy, Cleveland (WR39)
The Case for Lockett: Lockett may well be the third wideout in the Seahawks pecking order nowadays, but the veteran is still capable of a smash week here and there. And as offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb told reporters, the 32-year-old remains a key component of the Seahawks offense.
"Tyler is so good at understanding coverage and space and finding those holes in the coverage," Grubb said. "He's just a savvy player, can understand how to put the route concept together with the coverage, and then just apply it and get the easy hit. He and Geno are on the same page: two veteran guys who know what the concept is and how to attack the coverage. So, I think just (he's a) smart, savvy football player."
The Case for Jeudy: Since Cleveland traded wide receiver Amari Cooper, it has been Cedric Tillman, and not Jeudy, who has emerged as Cleveland's No. 1 receiver. But Jeudy told reporters he still believes he can fill the role of a top receiver in an NFL passing attack.
"I've always been a guy that's always been getting the ball until I got to the league a few years," Jeudy said. "I always think I'm ready. Now they gave me the opportunity to really step up, and now it's time to take advantage of that."
Jeudy has been relatively consistent of late—12 catches for 152 yards the past two games and at least a dozen PPR points in each.
The Verdict: Jeudy. Lockett may well have the higher fantasy ceiling, and he posted a solid 4/65/1 line on eight targets in the last meeting with the San Francisco 49ers. But Jeudy's target share is more reliable, and he draws a much easier fantasy matchup for wide receivers with the Saints.
Close Call: Jake Ferguson, Dallas (TE11) vs. Jonnu Smith, Miami (TE14)
The Case for Ferguson: The Cowboys offense may be in disarray, but the reality is the team will have to keep playing—likely from behind with some regularity. Ferguson told reporters that he has confidence in backup Cooper Rush—and that their rapport together could pay dividends down the road.
"I said this to him the other day," Ferguson said. "'Coop, you threw me my first NFL touchdown.' There is still some fire there. I believe in the guy. I love him. Love the way he approaches the game. Love the way he prepares."
Rush is going to be throwing short passes a lot. And Ferguson is the Cowboys' guy where those are concerned.
The Case for Smith: Not much was expected of Smith entering the season, but he has heated up of late. The eighth-year veteran has quietly posted the ninth-most fantasy points among tight ends over the past month, emerging as an underneath target for a Dolphins team throwing more short passes.
Smith has been hit-and-miss, but the same can be said about the entire Miami offense—especially when Tua Tagovailoa was on the shelf. But with so many teams using two high safeties against the Dolphins almost constantly, Smith is finding room to roam underneath—and Tagovailoa is noticing it.
The Verdict: Smith. Lest this look like piling on, this is a very close call. The Cowboys have to be better throwing the ball this week, and they'll be playing catchup. But no team in the league has surrendered fewer PPR points per game to tight ends this season than the Texans. That's just one obstacle too many.
Gary Davenport is a two-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association Football Writer of the Year. Follow him on Twitter (Can't make him call it X) at @IDPSharks.
