Close Calls: Week 4's Toughest Lineup Decisions

Photo: USA Today Sports

Fantasy football is essentially one long series of decisions.

You make decisions on draft day, selecting one player over another as you construct a roster. Then once the season begins, there are more decisions every week. Who to target on the waiver wire? How much FAAB to spend on that target? Who to slot in starting lineups each week?

Some of those decisions are easy. Most fantasy managers with the first overall pick decided to take San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey—we won't talk about how that has worked out so far. If you spent an early draft pick on Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen, it doesn't take much rumination to slot him into the starting lineup every week he's active.

But each and every week, there are far more difficult decisions fantasy managers must make—closely ranked WR3, RB2, and Flex options with similar matchups and prospects for the week to come. Six of one and half a dozen of the other. Except it's really not—one of those players will score more than the other, and those points can be the difference between the thrill of victory and the agony of defeat.

If you're picturing a skier careening off a course, then you're likely pretty close to me in age.

The point of this column is to help you with those toughest decisions. To help fantasy managers get the close calls right.

Every week, we're going to look at some of the closest calls of the week. Make the case for both players. And then offer up this analyst's take on which player is the correct play.

For the sake of this exercise, we'll only consider quarterbacks and tight ends outside the top 10, running backs outside the top 20, and wide receivers outside the top 30 in Footballguys' Weekly Rankings. If you're trying to decide between Philadelphia Eagles running back Saquon Barkley and Atlanta Falcons running back Bijan Robinson, you're on your own.

Also, get bent.

Let's do this.

Close Call: Aaron Rodgers, NY Jets (QB14) vs. Geno Smith, Seattle (QB16)

The Case for Rodgers: Last week against the New England Patriots, Rodgers looked quite a bit like, well, Aaron Rodgers. He was accurate. Found open receivers. Extended plays. He completed over 77 percent of his passes on the way to 281 passing yards and two touchdowns. Rodgers is back, baby!

Perhaps the most impressive part of Rodgers' last game was that eight different Jets caught a pass. Tight end Tyler Conklin had a big game. Wide receiver Allen Lazard found the end zone for the third time this season. And Rodgers teased in his postgame interview that once he and Garrett Wilson get on the same page, look out.

The Case for Smith: The Seattle Seahawks are 3-0, but that hasn't been because of gaudy numbers from Smith. The 33-year-old surpassed 300 passing yards in Week 2, but Smith has yet to throw multiple touchdown passes in a game and he was picked off twice in last week's win over the Miami Dolphins.

Still, Smith certainly has the weapons to post a big number in Detroit in Week 4. DK Metcalf caught a long touchdown a week ago against Miami. Jaxon Smith-Njigba is coming into his own as a wide receiver. Tyler Lockett remains a capable veteran pass-catcher. And there's optimism that running back Ken Walker III will play Monday night as well.

The Verdict: Smith. This all comes down to the matchups. The Jets are at home this week, but it's against a Denver Broncos defense that ranks second in the NFL against the pass, allowing just 133.3 yards per game. Meanwhile, Smith is in Detroit in a game that screams shootout against a Lions defense that has surrendered over 80 more passing yards per game.

Close Call: Chuba Hubbard, Carolina (RB20) vs. Josh Jacobs. Green Bay (RB22)

The Case for Hubbard: Hubbard had himself a game last week against the Las Vegas Raiders—21 carries for 114 yards and five receptions for 55 yards and a touchdown. Those numbers were good for the fourth-most fantasy points of the week at running back, and Hubbard now ranks inside the top-20 for the season at the position.

Hubbard had more carries in Andy Dalton's first start than he had in the first two games combined, but he appears to be entrenched (for now, at least) as Carolina's lead back and has made the most of it—the fourth-year veteran is averaging over five yards a carry and has added three receptions per game on average.

The Case for Jacobs: Had you asked this question before say Week 1, Jacobs would have been a nearly unanimous pick after signing a big contract with the Packers in the offseason. Jacobs has already shown workhorse potential in his new home, piling up 151 yards on a whopping 32 carries in Week 2.

For the season, Jacobs is averaging a full yard more in his first season in Titletown than his last year with the Las Vegas Raiders. It's not yet known if Jordan Love will return from his knee injury this week against the Minnesota Vikings, but whether Love is under center or not Jacobs should be a big part of the game plan.

The Verdict: Hubbard. To be clear, Jacobs is the superior talent on the better team. But only the Baltimore Ravens have allowed fewer rushing yards per game this season than the Vikings. Meanwhile, the 0-3 Bengals were just roasted by a rookie quarterback in Jayden Daniels and have surrendered over 140 yards per game on the ground this season.