Anthony Richardson could have one of the highest ceilings in fantasy football this year, and you should definitely consider him as a top-five QB option.

Richardson entered the NFL last season as the most athletic quarterback in history. With a Relative Athletic Score of 10.00, prototypical height and weight, and explosion and speed grades surpassing those of Cam Newton, the deck was stacked in his favor almost immediately.

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Remembering the golden rule of fantasy football is always important: it isn't real football. Even if your quarterback isn't the most accurate or polished passer yet, he can still accumulate a ton of fantasy points in other ways.

Richardson only played four games, with just two being full games, before suffering a season-ending shoulder injury. What we saw in that short time span, though, left fantasy managers with an intriguing question: When Richardson is healthy, just how high is his ceiling?

Anthony Richardson: Monster or Mirage?

Richardson may have entered the NFL looking like a unicorn prospect from an athleticism and workout perspective, but on the field, people had questions. They saw his below-average 54.7% completion percentage at Florida and asked, "How does this happen with SEC weapons?" Ricky Pearsall and Justin Shorter were two of his wide receiver weapons, and both are currently on NFL rosters.

The Indianapolis Colts, after drafting Richardson fourth overall in the 2023 NFL Draft, were clearly not deterred by his completion percentage. Last July, Chris Ballard, the Colts' GM, noted that he wanted Richardson to "be able to handle the highs and lows of the position because you have to." He knew that there could definitely be some growing pains from the young QB, and they were there almost right away when, four games into the season, Richardson hurt his shoulder on a running play bad enough that he needed season-ending surgery.

Fast-forward eight months, and Richardson has embraced his rookie-year struggles. He handled the situation professionally and with a level head, and he knows that this year, he has a chance to really show what he can do.

In the works. pic.twitter.com/2ALWcxNMb5

— Indianapolis Colts (@Colts) May 6, 2024

The Offensive Situation

Much was made of the Colts' offense headed into last season and this offseason. Under Gardner Minshew II, the passing offense showed some life, with Michael Pittman Jr leading the way with 1,150 receiving yards and 110 catches.

Heading into the 2024 season, things look just as good, if not better. Jonathan Taylor worked out his contract issues with the team and is back healthy. Josh Downs has another year of experience, and now there's a brand-new toy for head coach Shane Steichen to implement into one of the craftier offensive schemes: Adonai Mitchell.

Mitchell arrives by way of the 52nd overall draft pick in this year's NFL Draft and should immediately slide into the role that many thought former second-rounder Alec Pierce would take. 

Downs and Mitchell could significantly expand this offense. Downs had an 18% target share and 27 targets in four games with Richardson last season, and he's now entrenched as a starter. Mitchell is a major X-factor, possessing immense upside if he can immediately find his footing in the NFL. He's an exceptional route runner with a great ability to get open downfield, and with Richardson's strength in attacking downfield, Mitchell could quickly become a favorite target.

With Steichen leading this offense, Richardson should be able to utilize this entire group to his advantage. His completion percentage should improve with another season of practice and familiarity under his belt. Last year, he demonstrated the ability to navigate pressure in the pocket and keep his eyes downfield while on the move. You can't teach mobility like his.

Looking at Richardson's Profile and History

In 2021, one of the first articles I wrote for Footballguys was a data dive on whether rushing quarterbacks needed to progress into talented passers rather than relying solely on their legs to have more successful fantasy careers. The article focused on Jalen Hurts and whether he could achieve this, but it can just as aptly be applied to Anthony Richardson and his future as well.

In his four games last year, Richardson had only 84 attempts. It's important to note that he had 10 and 12 attempts in two of those games because he left early due to injury. In his two complete games, he had 37 and 25 attempts and flashed the ability to make solid downfield throws into tight windows.

You have to remember that Richardson came from a Florida system where he wasn't asked to do much as a pure passer in his one starting season for the Gators. He struggled with targeting the short-to-intermediate areas of the field, and his footwork was questionable at times. However, those issues were balanced by his prowess in targeting downfield. According to Sports Information Systems, he had a 55.6% on-target percentage on throws of 31 or more yards, better than any top quarterback in the class. This indicates that while Richardson has some spotty mechanics, they are definitely fixable and can improve.

Given all of this, Richardson could easily make the jump to being a passer capable of methodically pushing the ball downfield and racking up passing yards. If he can achieve that, combined with his production on the ground—nearly guaranteed with his 6.3 carries per game—a top-seven, maybe even top-five, season is in store.

Anthony Richardson Stats

Anthony Richardson 2024 Projections

Final Thoughts

Richardson comes with some issues in his profile, and it's fair to wonder if he'll put himself in harm's way too often with his aggressive style of play. However, he is truly one of a kind at the quarterback position, and that's exactly the kind of upside we swing for in fantasy football. He's not in the elite tier of quarterbacks, but he's right there, and he's the perfect upside candidate that can win you your league in any given week because of what he brings to the table.

Richardson is my QB5 and will be an absolute gamebreaker for fantasy football this season.

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