Sleepers and busts can massively tilt your fantasy football season in any direction, as we know.
You can just as easily win your league if you pick the sleepers that burst into the top tier as if you pick league-winning production in your first pick, which makes researching your quarterback, pass catcher, tight end, and running back sleepers of paramount importance.
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Every year, there are players who go outside the top 20 for whatever reason, and picking the correct sleepers out of the rest can go a long way. Using our Footballguys' Average Draft Position and Rankings tools, I'll identify some of my favorite running back sleeper candidates in fantasy drafts this season.
To be clear, we define sleepers as players who we think will perform better than most expect and be undervalued at their average draft position.
RB Sleeper: Tyjae Spears, Tennessee (ADP: RB34)
Relegated in his rookie season to backing up Derrick Henry and giving him breathers on passing downs, Spears didn't get to show his full range of talents that had him drafted on Day 2 of the NFL Draft, but he should get that chance this season. Spears and Tony Pollard will helm the new-look Titans' backfield. But Spears, who has gotten consistent positive buzz all preseason according to our Footballguys Preseason Reports, will have plenty of opportunities to show his skills.
Spears truly looks the part as a running back who could work on all three downs, as he showed his potential last season by posting a 26.3% Juke Rate (4th in NFL), a 7% Breakaway Run Rate (5th), and 4.58 Yards Created per Touch, courtesy of Player Profiler. He is going eight spots behind Pollard but deserves to be right there next to him, as he should outperform his ADP.
RB Sleeper: Chase Brown, Cincinnati (ADP: RB35)
The case for Brown all offseason long has been relatively simple: he's younger than Zack Moss, who the Bengals brought in ostensibly to replace the departed Joe Mixon, and he carries more passing-down upside than the former Bill. Sure enough, as the summer went along, Brown has garnered more and more time spent running with the first team in preseason and training camp, and while Brown's ADP has risen, he's still going five slots behind Moss' according to Footballguys' ADP and qualifies as a sleeper for me.
Brown made a living on a few big plays last season. While he didn't see much work, he still put up a very respectable 0.91 Fantasy Points per Opportunity score, ranking 12th among RBs in 2023. The former Illini back is someone you should be targeting as your third or fourth back, and he can provide flex value right out of the gate.
RB Sleeper: Ray Davis, Buffalo (ADP: RB52)
Davis has a real chance to be the running back that the Bills have been looking for since they drafted James Cook. Josh Allen is one of the most gifted quarterbacks in the league at running at the ball inside the 10-yard line, but Davis can take off some of those carries right away with his low-to-the-ground stature and come in on pass protection plays.
Cook is an interesting case study, because he truly is a very talented back. His downside is that the Bills clearly don't want to give him short-yardage and goal-line work, as he only saw four total goal-line touches all year and 29 red-zone carries (Josh Allen saw 36). Davis would further take those opportunities away. He is a 5-foot-8, 220-pound battering ram of a back that accelerates well.
Davis will probably start a bit slow in his rookie season, but he could get going in a hurry. There's plenty of opportunities in Buffalo, let's see if he can grab them.
RB Sleeper: Bucky Irving, Tampa Bay (ADP: RB54)
Irving has become one of my favorite running back sleeper candidates over the past month or so. In that time frame, he has completely separated from the other backups in the Buccaneers' running back room and solidified himself as not only Rachaad White's backup but also may have carved out a role for himself.
From Dwain McFarland's Week 3 Preseason Utilization Report, Irving came in immediately after White left the field, handling the entire slate of work for three drives by himself. He looked great in pass protection, and with White's inefficiency struggles from 2023 in the back of the mind (6th-lowest Rushing Yards over Expected), Irving could play more than a change-of-pace role.
