Flip Side: 3 WRs Who Could Improve in 2023
Related: 3 QBs Who Could Decline in 2023
A player's fantasy football production can differ significantly from year to year based on a variety of factors. One of the key places to understand is when their production will be influenced by highly variable and uncorrelated stats. In many cases, players may perform better on the field but have worse fantasy production because they regress in these high-variance areas. Likewise, players may perform worse in the following season but have better fantasy production because they progressed in a positive direction in these high-variance stats. Understanding these forces will identify undervalued and overvalued players.
When setting expectations, consider the following wide receiver candidates due for regression in 2023.
George Pickens, Pittsburgh Steelers
Among wide receivers with 80 or more targets in 2022, George Pickens had the highest catch percentage on contested catches (68%). While that is a good mark, contested catch performance is not correlated year over year. Among wide receivers with 20 or more contested targets in back-to-back years, the r-square of contested catch rate is 0.02, meaning contested catch performance only explains 2% of the following season’s performance. Overall, Pickens performed well in counting stats, catching 52 passes for 801 receiving yards and 4 touchdowns, but did so on the second highest route volume (580) of any rookie wide receiver in 2022 and ran routes on the highest percent of dropbacks of any rookie wide receiver (90.5%). Graded against his volume, Pickens underperformed the average second-round rookie wide receiver, producing only 1.38 yards per route run while being targeted on 14.5% of his routes, both below-average metrics for rookie second-round wide receivers. Pickens will have a difficult time expanding his volume and should expect to regress in his contested catch performance, which will make it difficult for him to beat his 2022 production.
Christian Kirk, Jacksonville Jaguars
Christian Kirk was the beneficiary of positive touchdown variance in 2022. He ranked 30th in end zone targets (7) but had 5 touchdowns well above the league average touchdown rate on end zone targets (38%). Kirk will get added competition with the return of Calvin Ridley and should expect less touchdown fortune in 2023.
Davante Adams, Las Vegas Raiders
In 2023, Davante Adams will have his third different quarterback in three years. After a long tenure with Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay, Adams was traded to Las Vegas in 2022 to reunite with his college quarterback Derek Carr. After a good initial season as a Raider, Carr was released before the team signed Jimmy Garoppolo. Adams caught 14 touchdown passes in 2022, well above his expectation of 10.1 touchdowns. Adams led the league in touchdowns of 40 or more yards with 5 and tied Tyreek Hill with the league lead in receptions of 40 or more yards. The long touchdowns can be highly variable from year to year, and the change in quarterback should hurt Adams. Derek Carr ranked 10th among quarterbacks in the percentage of his throws that were 20 or more yards down the field (14.1%), while Jimmy Garoppolo ranked 31st among 36 qualifiers (9.1%). Overall, Adams is still a good bet for high targets and high production, but his touchdown production will be very difficult to replicate in 2023.
A.J. Brown, Philadelphia Eagles
AJ Brown had a career year in his first season with Philadelphia. He caught 88 passes for 1496 yards and 11 touchdowns in a massive breakout season. Brown has been among the most efficient wide receivers on a per-route basis, so the increase in volume in his move from Tennessee to Philadelphia has made a major impact, but his touchdown production will be difficult to repeat in 2023. Brown ranked 16th in the league with targets in the end zone (10) but ranked tied for second in the league in touchdowns on end zone targets (6), which was well above the league average. The Eagles are one of the more run-heavy teams in the league in 2022, so Brown will have a difficult time increasing red zone target volume to make up for the likely regression.
Jahan Dotson, Washington Commanders
Jahan Dotson had only 35 receptions in 12 games during his rookie season but scored seven receiving touchdowns. Dotson scored six touchdowns on eight end zone targets, a rate that is extremely difficult to repeat. Dotson was only targeted on 14.9% of his routes in 2022, and he was highly dependent on contested catches. 18 of Dotson’s 61 targets were contested, and 11 of his 35 receptions were contested catches. His 61% conversion rate is well above the 46% league average in 2022, and performance in the statistic is not predictive of future performance in contested catch performance. Dotson struggled to generate targets and was dependent on high variance touchdown and contested catch performance in 2022, which should not be expected to repeat in 2023.