Overview:
Contrarian means opposing or rejecting popular opinion; going against the current practice. Being a contrarian in fantasy football is difficult because it’s not chalk as the DFS kids would call it today. Risk is involved, but it could be a league-winning selection. Contrarian is where the big money is made within DFS, especially in large tournaments because you’ll submit more unique lineups than your competitors.
Do mix in one or two of these players within a lineup to maximize individuality.
Do not create your entire lineup based on the contrarian picks below.
Does playing contrarian in DFS really work? YES! This past week, I made over $6,000 using two of my contrarian plays in a lineup, Justin Fields and James Cook, from this article. It requires some luck, but I even had Javonte Williams in that lineup, who only scored 2.4 points.
Key for charts:
Player = recommended contrarian play
Opponent = Home or away and the opponent
FD Roster % = This week's FanDuel roster percentages
FD Salary = FanDuel salary to roster the player
DK Roster % = This week's DraftKings roster percentages
DK Salary = DraftKings salary to roster the player
CONTRARIAN QUARTERBACKS
The Patriot's defense entering the season had high hopes. However, poor play and injuries have led them to be a middle-of-the-road defense. Last week, New England lost their best CB and potentially their best pass rusher. The defense is trending even more down with Derek Carr coming to town. Carr is recovering from a shoulder injury and poor play. He’s one of the cheapest DFS QB plays out there this week, which will help you build the rest of your lineup. Look for him to bounce back with good matchups all across the field to exploit.
Joshua Dobbs in 2023 has this feel-good story to it. He’s bounced around the league and was traded just prior to the season starting with low expectations. Dobbs then leads the Cardinals to competitive football and an upset win over Dallas! In the last three games, Dobbs has posted a 99.9 QB rating or better despite playing some good defenses. We love running quarterbacks, and he’s also rushed for a minimum of 41 yards in those games. The Cincinnati defense is the fourth worst in pressure percentage and middle-of-the-road pass defense, especially with their best pass rusher, Trey Hendrickson, questionable to play. Expect the Dobbs magic to continue this week.
C.J. Stroud has been dealing this season, which makes me shocked he’s rostered at this low of a percentage. Stroud is PFF’s 15th-ranked QB of the year. He’s thrown for a minimum of 280 yards and 2 touchdowns in each of the last three games. This week Houston faces Atlanta who ranks in that middle to bottom third tier of pass defenses. Betting on Stroud to continue his streak of good play is a strong play this week.
Joe Burrow hasn’t thrown a touchdown pass in the last two weeks. The calf injury has hindered his play and the rest of the Bengals offense. We know Burrow’s potential is to be in the elite tier of quarterbacks. When will he bounce back? Last week, he faced a bottom-third pass defense and didn’t play a good game. In terms of expected pass defense, he faces the fifth-worst pass defense this week in Arizona. Burrow will bounce back eventually and betting on the correct week makes him a huge contrarian play.
Continue reading this content with a HALL OF FAME subscription.
"Footballguys is the best premium
fantasy football
only site on the planet."
Matthew Berry, NBC Sports EDGE
