Week 5 DFS Contrarian

CONTRARIAN QUARTERBACKS

The Patriot's defense entering the season had high hopes. However, poor play and injuries have led them to be a middle-of-the-road defense. Last week, New England lost their best CB and potentially their best pass rusher. The defense is trending even more down with Derek Carr coming to town. Carr is recovering from a shoulder injury and poor play. He’s one of the cheapest DFS QB plays out there this week, which will help you build the rest of your lineup. Look for him to bounce back with good matchups all across the field to exploit.

Joshua Dobbs in 2023 has this feel-good story to it. He’s bounced around the league and was traded just prior to the season starting with low expectations. Dobbs then leads the Cardinals to competitive football and an upset win over Dallas! In the last three games, Dobbs has posted a 99.9 QB rating or better despite playing some good defenses. We love running quarterbacks, and he’s also rushed for a minimum of 41 yards in those games. The Cincinnati defense is the fourth worst in pressure percentage and middle-of-the-road pass defense, especially with their best pass rusher, Trey Hendrickson, questionable to play. Expect the Dobbs magic to continue this week.

C.J. Stroud has been dealing this season, which makes me shocked he’s rostered at this low of a percentage. Stroud is PFF’s 15th-ranked QB of the year. He’s thrown for a minimum of 280 yards and 2 touchdowns in each of the last three games. This week Houston faces Atlanta who ranks in that middle to bottom third tier of pass defenses. Betting on Stroud to continue his streak of good play is a strong play this week.

Joe Burrow hasn’t thrown a touchdown pass in the last two weeks. The calf injury has hindered his play and the rest of the Bengals offense. We know Burrow’s potential is to be in the elite tier of quarterbacks. When will he bounce back? Last week, he faced a bottom-third pass defense and didn’t play a good game. In terms of expected pass defense, he faces the fifth-worst pass defense this week in Arizona. Burrow will bounce back eventually and betting on the correct week makes him a huge contrarian play.

CONTRARIAN RUNNING BACKS

Listed as questionable, Gibbs is someone to monitor closer to gameday. But it sounds like Amon-Ra St. Brown will not play this week with Josh Reynolds and Jameson Williams getting the questionable tag. Detroit has a banged-up offense, which would rely more on the running game and receiving potential of Gibbs. David Montgomery has received the lion’s share of carries, but they could be even more run-heavy this week. Carolina’s run defense is ranked in the bottom 10 as well.

Last week, Chuba Hubbard and Miles Sanders each had 16 touches on offense. Hubbard gains 0.7 yards per carry over expected, while Sanders gains -0.83 yards per carry under expected. This advanced metric is important and the Panthers may be recognizing it. Sanders also has been dealing with a groin injury. The Panthers face one of the best-run defenses in the NFL in Detroit this week. However, if you’re looking for a cheap contrarian play, especially in DraftKings, Hubbard may be your choice at running back this week.

De’Von Achane has been in the zone for the last two weeks. He’s rushed for 304 yards while averaging 11.7 yards per carry and added 49 receiving yards with 6 total touchdowns. Achane is first in the NFL in rushing yards per carry-over expectation at 6.39. He faces the Giants this week, who have been a borderline bottom third of the NFL rush defense in 2023. While some may be doubting if Achane can keep this pace up, it’s difficult to envision a mediocre Giants defense with a bad offense creating any kind of resistance. Achane not being one of the highest-rostered players this week is shocking.

Joe Mixon has had a minimum of 15 touches in every game this season. While the Bengals offense has been floundering, Mixon has been steady with a 0.33 rushing yards per carry-over expectation. The matchup this week against the Cardinals is juicy for Mixon. Arizona is a bottom-10 rush defense and they’ve allowed running backs to thrive in fantasy football this year. Cincinnati leaning into Mixon more in this game is advantageous for the entire offense.

Players can get negative reputations and fantasy players will shy away from them. Najee Harris is setting career highs in efficiencies this year in yards per carry, yards per carry after contact, missed tackles forced per carry, and explosive runs per carry. He ranks 2nd in the NFL in breakaway run rate, 13th in evaded tackles, and 14th in juke rate(shoutout to Ian Haritz and Dave Kluge for these stats). Harris earned over 100 total yards last week and faces a solid to good run defense this week. He hasn’t reached the end zone this season, but I expect that to be changing very soon. Harris is a better player this year, which makes him a better value.

CONTRARIAN WIDE RECEIVERS

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