The semi-finals are here and fantasy managers have absolutely no room for error in their starting lineups. This weekly article is meant to make those lineup decisions a little bit easier. This week, I've changed things up by only listing which players you should be starting, rather than suggesting any players to sit. You can always listen to the Starts and Sleepers episode of The Footballguys Fantasy Football Show, which releases episodes every weekday - also, check out the Week 16 Player Rankings.
QUARTERBACKS
START: Jake Browning @ PIT
- Opponent vs QBs: 9th
- Week 16 Rank: QB14
- Projected Points: 19.1
Browning has been a top-8 fantasy quarterback in each of the last three starts. Since Week 13, Browning has been the QB4 in fantasy points per game. He's been more than just a game manager; he's been a game-winner. The Bengals have made things simple for Browning and kept his average depth of target very shallow. With much of his yardage coming after the catch, Browning is at low risk for throwing turnover-worthy passes. On the other side, the Steelers defense has been falling apart. Pittsburgh will be without both starting safeties in this matchup, so expect Browning to win on short and intermediate throws as usual, but the deep parts of the field could be wide open in this game.
SLEEPER: Joe Flacco @ HOU
- Opponent vs QBs: 22nd
- Week 16 Rank: QB16
- Projected Points: 18.1
Joe Flacco has been the QB8 in fantasy over the last three weeks. He's been averaging over 300 passing yards and 2 touchdowns per game. No, seriously... look it up. Since Week 9, opposing quarterbacks are averaging 268 passing yards and 19.2 fantasy points per game. The stars appear to be aligning for Joe Flacco to be a fantasy playoff savior.
TIGHT ENDS
SLEEPER: Hunter Henry @ DEN
- Opponent vs TEs: 32nd
- Week 16 Rank: TE13
- Projected Points: 9.7
With Bailey Zappe under center, Hunter Henry has been hovering around a 20% target share as the team's first option in the passing game. Henry has 3 touchdowns over the last two games, and now he faces a Broncos defense that just allowed Sam LaPorta to score 3 touchdowns in week 15. Denver has given up the most points to fantasy tight ends this season. Hunter Henry is an obvious streamer with major touchdown upside.
RUNNING BACKS
START: Bijan Robinson vs IND
- Opponent vs RBs: 30th
- Week 16 Rank: RB8
- Projected Points: 15.7
I know this seems obvious, but sometimes we have to be reminded that good players need to start in our lineups. Arthur Smith has shown that he really does not care about the usage his best players are getting. Last week, the trio of Bijan Robinson, Drake London, and Kyle Pitts accounted for less than a third of the team's total touches. Since then, Falcons owner Arthur Blank has been asked about Smith's future, and he responded by saying, "We'll let the season play out." I may not know a lot of languages, but I am fluent in business. Blank will want Smith to use the players that the team has invested heavily in. Robinson is a catalyst player in Atlanta, and in a running back-friendly matchup, I expect him to go off in a major way.
SLEEPER: Devin Singletary vs CLE
- Opponent vs RBs: 9th
- Week 16 Rank: RB25
- Projected Points: 13.6
Not many people are thinking about starting Devin Singletary this week. I get it. It's been hard to trust any Texans' running backs this season, and the Browns defense has been very good. But as the season goes on, things change, and trends emerge. The Browns defense has softened up against running backs. Over the last six games, Cleveland has given up an average of 16.3 PPR points per game to opposing lead running backs. On the other side, Singletary has taken over as the lead back in Houston, finishing as a Top-20 fantasy running back in five of his last six games. I'm starting Singletary this week in my flex spot, and you should, too.
WIDE RECEIVERS
START: Tee Higgins @ PIT
- Opponent vs WRs: 15th
- Week 16 Rank: WR17
- Projected Points: 14.9
Copy/Paste everything I wrote about Jake Browning. Now add in the fact that Ja'Marr Chase has been ruled out in week 16. The targets should be flying in Higgins direction, especially after his two-touchdown performance in Week 15. The Steelers are not the same defense that most of us remember. Over the last three games, the Steelers have given up an average of 25 points per game to opposing offenses. Expect the Bengals to move the ball easily and target Higgins plenty.
SLEEPER: Parker Washington @ TB
- Opponent vs WRs: 29th
- Week 16 Rank: WR49
- Projected Points: 9.2
I'm reaching deep into my bag of tricks for this one. Washington is a deep flex play in your minimum 12-team, 3-WR leagues. The Jaguars are going to be without Christian Kirk and Zay Jones this week. Washington has had a decent role in the offense since Week 13, totaling 6 targets in two of his three games played. The Bucs give up the fourth-most fantasy points to wide receivers, and this game script could be set up for a back-and-forth shootout.