Underdog's Fantasy Pick 'Em is a fun way to test our predictive abilities against the market. The two keys to success are selecting the best players to target and leveraging correlations to improve our odds. You play Pick 'Em simply by choosing Higher or Lower on at least two player props. If you make the right selection, here's the payout structure:
- Two picks = 3X
- Three picks = 6X
- Four picks = 10X
- Five picks = 20X
In this weekly article, we will list our favorite plays of the week and the reasoning behind them.
Week 7 Review
Overall Picks (8-4 on the week, 44-33-1 on the season)
Overall Units (+7, +6 on the season)
- The 10X Correlation Play with four Higher plays on the Tampa Bay and Atlanta passing games hit comfortably. On the Buccaneers' side, Baker Mayfield (221.5) threw for 275 yards. His top target, Mike Evans (56.5), had 82 receiving yards. On the Falcons' side, Desmond Ridder (209.5) threw for 250 yards. His top target, Drake London (3.5 receptions), had six catches.
- 75% of our four Higher plays on the Chargers-Chiefs came home comfortably. On the Chiefs side, Patrick Mahomes II (278.5) easily topped his passing yardage total with 424. His top target, Travis Kelce (6.5 receptions), also flew over with 12 catches. On the other side, Joshua Palmer (49.5) crushed his receiving yardage prop with 133 yards. Unfortunately, we came up one short, with Keenan Allen (77.5) only managing 55 yards on nine targets.
- The attempt to predict the game script in Denver was unsuccessful. We thought the Packers would control the game on the ground with Aaron Jones (higher than 51.5 rushing yards) leading the way. Instead, he carried it just eight times for 35 yards, and AJ Dillon was the lead back in Jones' return. We were right that Jordan Love would attempt fewer than 32.5 passes but missed on both Lower props on the Denver side.
Lessons learned: The stated goal last week was to hit just one of the three correlated same-game Pick 'Ems with a 10X payout. We were able to do so and came very close on hitting a second. The strategy is worth going back to for a second week in a row.
Week 7 Picks
The correlated same-game passing props have been successful of late. Last week, we hit one of two (and came very close to hitting both). We only need to pinpoint the right games and player combinations at least 10% of the time to achieve long-term positive value. We are revisiting this approach with all four of our recommended Pick 'Ems this week.
Eagles-Commanders
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