Two of my favorite things are Best Ball and Underdog Fantasy, and each week this offseason, I want to share with you my insights on both. With Underdog Fantasy releasing the Best Ball Mania IV tournament a few months ago, excitement has been growing each day. Each week I want to break down what has changed from the previous week when it comes to NFL news, Best Ball news, and the top ADP Risers and Fallers on Underdog. It's useful to compare Best Ball to the stock market and day trading stocks, but instead of stocks, we are looking at NFL players, specifically those players' Average Draft Position (ADP). We are constantly wanting to find those players who are of value in our drafts and avoid some of the players who might be overvalued.
Each week I will look at the Underdog ADP tool on 4for4.com to examine the top 10 risers and the top 10 fallers at ADP. These shifts in ADP are often driven by the news we have coming in that week and what some of the major touts in the industry might be saying about said players.
TOP 10 ADP RISERS
| RANK | PLAYER | POSITION | TEAM | AUG 29 ADP | ADP CHANGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sam Howell | QB | WAS | 167.4 | 16.9 |
| 2 | Kenny Pickett | QB | PIT | 150.0 | 13.6 |
| 3 | Deon Jackson | RB | IND | 197.6 | 13.5 |
| 4 | Marvin Mims Jr. | WR | DEN | 129.7 | 12.8 |
| 5 | Juwan Johnson | TE | NO | 153.8 | 12.5 |
| 6 | Luke Musgrave | TE | GB | 164.0 | 10.4 |
| 7 | Jake Ferguson | TE | DAL | 161.4 | 9.6 |
| 8 | Tyjae Spears | RB | TEN | 162.2 | 8.2 |
| 9 | Jaylen Warren | RB | PIT | 116.2 | 8.0 |
| 10 | Jahan Dotson | WR | WAS | 65.4 | 7.6 |
***These ten ADP risers are based on the dates 08/22/2023-08/29/23***
With the preseason coming to a close, we are starting to see our riser list be dominated by the players who received the most buzz during training camp and the preseason games. At the top of the list are the two quarterbacks who continued to be praised throughout the summer: Sam Howell and Kenny Pickett. Their ADP prices are still fairly reasonable and make for excellent additions to any two or three quarterback builds. The three tight ends on this list are all young, and all come with plenty of upside yet still cost you an ADP of 153.8 or less. Juwan Johnson, Luke Musgrave, and Jake Ferguson all have breakout potential for their teams as they look locked in as the top options for their teams heading into the season.
Deon Jackson is getting a bump up because of the uncertainty of the Jonathan Taylor situation, and even if Taylor was committed to the Colts, maybe Jackson's price should be warranted as he has shown some flash to his game. Marvin Mims and Jahan Dotson are the lone two wide receivers on the risers list this week and have plenty of upside and maybe are still underpriced some. They both have players ahead of them on the depth chart who are banged up, so that has also helped to force a rise in their ADP. Tyjae Spears and Jaylen Warren are the last two on the risers list, and both have been impressive this summer in camp and game situations. They look to have the backup running back roles secured on their teams and also offer great leverage as handcuff draft picks.
TOP 10 ADP FALLERS
Continue reading this content with a ELITE subscription.
An ELITE subscription is required to access content for Best Ball leagues. If this league is not a Best Ball league, you can edit your leagues here.
| RANK | PLAYER | POSITION | TEAM | AUG 29 ADP | ADP CHANGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jerry Jeudy | WR | DEN | 56.4 | 18.4 |
| 2 | Kyler Murray | QB | ARI | 178.9 | 15.6 |
| 3 | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | SEA | 72.0 | 15.2 |
| 4 | Greg Dulcich | TE | DEN | 166.6 | 13.2 |
| 5 | De'Von Achane | RB | MIA | 131.9 | 12.9 |
| 6 | John Metchie III | WR | HOU | 209.4 | 12.6 |
| 7 | D.J. Chark Jr | WR | DET | 169.9 | 12.1 |
| 8 | Rondale Moore | WR | ARI | 161.7 | 11.8 |
| 9 | Khalil Shakir | WR | BUF | 213.9 | 11.3 |
| 10 | Zamir White | RB | LV | 177.1 | 11.0 |
***These ten ADP fallers are based on the dates 08/22/2023-08/29/23***
The fallers are players that have been unimpressive this offseason or have been dealing with injuries. Jerry Jeudy and Jaxon Smith-Njigba are the two big names on the list this week, as both are dealing with injuries that don't have a definite recovery date. They look to be lined up to miss some time, so with that comes the fall in ADP. If you can deal with missing a few games, they might actually be really strong picks now to help build out your best ball roster, as they are as cheap as they have been all season in the BBM4 contest. Kyler Murray continues to have mixed reports on his recovery. The latest is that he will remain on the PUP list, and we have even heard rumors that he might miss the entire season.
The negative vibes on Greg Dulcich continue, and the ADP dips continue. Wide receivers John Metchie, D.J. Chark Jr, Rondale Moore, and Khalil Shakir all look like they might be getting passed over on the depth chart by more talented players around them, and we are seeing a fall in ADP because of it. Devon Achane has been one of the biggest fallers as he is dealing with a shoulder injury and also was falling down the depth chart before the injury news.
WEEKLY NEWS AND NOTES
- WR Treylon Burks TEN - Back at practice and on target for being active for Week 1.
- WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA - Expected to begin the season on the active roster
- QB Kyler Murray ARI - To remain on the PUP List.
- RB Zonovan Knight - Cut by the New York Jets
- QB C.J. Stroud HOU - Named the Week 1 starting quarterback
- TE Mike Gesicki NE - Sheds the non-contact jersey. Week 1 is still in question.
- RB Pierre Strong Jr - Traded to the Cleveland Browns
BEST BALL INDUSTRY NEWS
Underdog Fantasy - The biggest Best Ball tournament in history is currently live on Underdog with Best Ball Mania IV in full swing. It is a $25 entry tournament that is 572,000/677,376 (84.4%) full currently, with 65,000 new entries this week. This year the top prize is $3 million dollars, and they also have the prize pool split into a playoff structure and a total points structure. Underdog is also currently offering a $15 entry Weekly Winners contest that you draft an 18-player roster and have a shot at new prizes each week with a top prize of $20,000. This contest is currently 71.2% full with 186,000/261,000 entries, with 28,000 new entries this week.
Drafters - Drafters released a $1 Million Best Ball tournament that is a $20 entry fee and a top prize of $300,000. It is currently 55,000/111,252 full, with 15,000 new entries this week. They also have a $3 entry Mini that is 55,500/74,160 full and has a top prize of $30,000. It had 6,000 new entries this week.
DraftKings - DraftKings released their big $10 entry Best Ball tournament for 2023. It has a $1 million to 1st place price, but you will have to beat out 1,178,496 entries to win the prize. This contest is playoff-style, with the Top 2 out of 12 advancing out of Round 1 (Week 1 through Week 14). After that, the top team in Week 15 and Week 16 will make it into the Week 17 Finals. This contest currently sits at 837,000/1,178,496 full, with nearly 96,000 new entries this week. DraftKings also released a slew of other tournaments at various price ranges of $3-$2,120 in entry fees
Other sites that have Best Ball offerings - FFPC, Yahoo, FanDuel, BestBall10s
I have been playing Best Ball for five-plus years now and have learned valuable lessons along the way. I want to share that knowledge with our customers at Footballguys.com. My name is James Brimacombe, and my username on Underdog Fantasy and around the various Best Ball and DFS sites is "Eaglezzz". I will be honest with you each week as I try to help guide you on your own personal Best Ball journey in 2023. I have made mistakes over the years but have also done a few things correctly. I will always give you my knowledge from both angles. You can always follow me on Twitter as I share my Best Ball thoughts there daily and am always happy to answer questions via replies or DMs. You can follow along here @JamesBrimacombe.
Be sure to check out Underdog Fantasy. You can join their Best Ball Mania III contest here. Being a Footballguys subscriber, you'll get a 100% deposit match up to $100 if you're a first-time depositor. Have fun, and see you in the lobby!