Two of my favorite things are Best Ball and Underdog Fantasy, and each week this offseason, I want to share with you my insights on both. With Underdog Fantasy releasing the Best Ball Mania IV tournament a few months ago, excitement has been growing each day. Each week I want to break down what has changed from the previous week when it comes to NFL news, Best Ball news, and the top ADP Risers and Fallers on Underdog. It's useful to compare Best Ball to the stock market and day trading stocks, but instead of stocks, we are looking at NFL players, specifically those players' Average Draft Position (ADP). We are constantly wanting to find those players who are of value in our drafts and avoid some of the players who might be overvalued.
Each week I will look at the Underdog ADP tool on 4for4.com to examine the top 10 risers and the top 10 fallers at ADP. These shifts in ADP are often driven by the news we have coming in that week and what some of the major touts in the industry might be saying about said players.
Top 10 ADP Risers
| Rank | Player | Position | Team | July 17 ADP | ADP Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kyler Murray | QB | ARI | 153.2 | 9.2 |
| 2 | Alvin Kamara | RB | NO | 94.6 | 7.3 |
| 3 | Nico Collins | WR | HOU | 119.7 | 6.3 |
| 4 | Tim Patrick | WR | DEN | 170.4 | 6.2 |
| 5 | Skyy Moore | WR | KC | 106.2 | 5.3 |
| 6 | Jeff Wilson Jr. | RB | MIA | 182.3 | 3.7 |
| 7 | DeVante Parker | WR | NE | 192.5 | 3.5 |
| 8 | Clyde Edwards-Helaire | RB | KC | 204.5 | 3.5 |
| 9 | K.J. Osborn | WR | MIN | 146.2 | 3.2 |
| 10 | Gerald Everett | TE | LAC | 150.3 | 3.2 |
***These ten ADP risers are based on the dates 07/10/2023-07/17/23***
We are starting to see a few risers as news and notes start to come in on players and teams. The big news this week was DeAndre Hopkins signing with the Titans. We don't see much movement so far this week, but surely next week, the likes of Ryan Tannehill and maybe even Hopkins himself will show up on this report. The other big news was with Alvin Kamara and getting a little more clarity as he pleaded no contest but looks to still receive a suspension of some sort, but drafters are viewing this as positive news. Kyler Murray is the number one riser, as he hinted that his goal is to play in Week 1. This is often what we hear from all players coming off of a major injury. But it did make headlines, so drafters are holding onto any positive sentiments for Murray.
The other risers on this list are all names that are mostly depth pieces for their teams, but with a lack of news and signings, their roles are becoming more solidified. Nico Collins has been a riser all offseason and now has a 119.7 ADP which is starting to feel pretty steep. I have been a big fan of K.J. Osborn all offseason as he has been one of my highest drafted players, and now he is cracking the top 10 risers, which feels like the first time all offseason. The running backs outside of Kamara are Edwards-Helaire and Jeff Wilson, and while neither really stands out, they still will likely have solid roles on their teams. Gerald Everett was the only tight end to crack the list, and I think that is more tied to his connection to his quarterback in an offense that is pretty expensive at the QB, RB, and WR positions, so it allows you to buy in at a discount.
Tim Patrick and DeVante Parker continue to rise, but for me, their ADPs are seeming to be too expensive as there are many WR names out there later in drafts that can give you similar production, so they are fades now unless I want to complete a quarterback stack late in the draft.
Top 10 ADP Fallers
Continue reading this content with a ELITE subscription.
An ELITE subscription is required to access content for Best Ball leagues. If this league is not a Best Ball league, you can edit your leagues here.
| Rank | Player | Position | Team | July 17 ADP | ADP Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jordan Love | QB | GB | 160.8 | 6.1 |
| 2 | Pierre Strong Jr | RB | NE | 207.8 | 5.1 |
| 3 | Isiah Pacheco | RB | KC | 86.6 | 4.3 |
| 4 | Mac Jones | QB | NE | 203.3 | 4.0 |
| 5 | Luke Musgrave | TE | GB | 205.3 | 3.8 |
| 6 | Tyquan Thornton | WR | NE | 174.8 | 3.5 |
| 7 | Jerome Ford | RB | CLE | 165.0 | 3.5 |
| 8 | JuJu Smith-Schuster | WR | NE | 117.2 | 3.3 |
| 9 | Treylon Burks | WR | TEN | 70.8 | 3.2 |
| 10 | Chase Brown | RB | CIN | 193.7 | 3.0 |
***These ten ADP fallers are based on the dates 07/10/2023-07/17/23***
I was surprised to see both Jordan Love and Mac Jones in the top four on the fallers section this week. I view both as starters that will play all 17 games for their teams this year and great pieces to help construct my best ball teams. I will continue to buy the dip on those two quarterbacks if I need a QB to pair with my elite QB or if I am looking at a three-quarterback build.
The Patriots have four players in the top eight this week, with Pierre Strong, Mac Jones, Tyquan Thornton, and JuJu Smith-Schuster making the list. I am not personally afraid to draft any of these players at cost right now, as the Patriots are a nice option later in drafts to help you fill out your roster. Pierre Strong is a name that there is some concern with as the Patriots continue to be rumored to bring in another running back.
Treylon Burks is a faller now because of the DeAndre Hopkins signing, and he will likely fall even further as drafters overreact to the news. Burks will be a huge target for me in drafts, and I will happily buy any discount I can with him. I believe Hopkins opens up the field for Burks and takes some coverage and pressure off of him as he enters year two.
Jerome Ford and Chase Brown are both falling slightly, as I think Ford's ADP got pushed too high, to begin with, so now it is just leveling back out. As far as Chase Brown, Joe Mixon is now signed and looks to have the lead role locked up, so Brown is a risky option to invest in other than an occasional last-round selection.
Weekly News and Notes
- RB Saquon Barkley NYG - No extension prior to the deadline. Risk of not playing early in the season.
- RB Josh Jacobs LV - No deal and may not report to camp.
- RB Breece Hall NYJ - Expects to play in Week 1
- WR DeAndre Hopkins TEN - The offseason drama is finally over; he is signing with the Titans.
- TE Evan Engram JAC - Agrees to a three-year deal.
- RB Joe Mixon CIN - Agrees to restructure contract.
- QB Kyler Murray ARI - Aiming for Week 1 return.
- RB Alvin Kamara NO - Pleads no contest to lesser charge. Suspension is still in play, though.
- RB Isiah Pacheco KC - Could miss the start of camp.
- RB Jonathan Taylor IND - On track for camp.
Best Ball Industry News
Underdog Fantasy - The biggest Best Ball tournament in history is currently live on Underdog with Best Ball Mania IV in full swing. It is a $25 entry tournament that is 264,000/677,376 (39%) full currently, with 24,000 new entries this week. This year the top prize is $3 million dollars, and they also have the prize pool split into a playoff structure and a total points structure. Underdog is also currently offering a $15 entry Weekly Winners contest that you draft an 18-player roster and have a shot at new prizes each week with a top prize of $20,000. This contest is currently 22% full with 57,000/261,000 entries, with 10,000 new entries this week.
Drafters - Drafters released a $1 Million Best Ball tournament that is a $20 entry fee and a top prize of $300,000. It is currently 12,800/111,252 full, with 2,000 new entries this week. They also have a $3 entry Mini that is 25,400/74,160 full and has a top prize of $30,000. It had 4,500 new entries this week.
DraftKings - DraftKings released their big $10 entry Best Ball tournament for 2023. It has a $1 million to 1st place price, but you will have to beat out 1,178,496 entries to win the prize. This contest is playoff-style, with the Top 2 out of 12 advancing out of Round 1 (Week 1 through Week 14). After that, the top team in Week 15 and Week 16 will make it into the Week 17 Finals. This contest currently sits at 414,000/1,178,496 full, with nearly 90,000 new entries this week. DraftKings also released a slew of other tournaments at various price ranges of $3-$2,120 in entry fees
Other sites that have Best Ball offerings - FFPC, Yahoo, FanDuel, BestBall10s
I have been playing Best Ball for five-plus years now and have learned valuable lessons along the way. I want to share that knowledge with our customers at Footballguys.com. My name is James Brimacombe, and my username on Underdog Fantasy and around the various Best Ball and DFS sites is "Eaglezzz". I will be honest with you each week as I try to help guide you on your own personal Best Ball journey in 2023. I have made mistakes over the years but have also done a few things correctly. I will always give you my knowledge from both angles. You can always follow me on Twitter as I share my Best Ball thoughts there daily and am always happy to answer questions via replies or DMs. You can follow along here @JamesBrimacombe.
Be sure to check out Underdog Fantasy. You can join their Best Ball Mania III contest here. Being a Footballguys subscriber, you'll get a 100% deposit match up to $100 if you're a first-time depositor. Have fun, and see you in the lobby!