Two of my favorite things are Best Ball and Underdog Fantasy, and each week this offseason, I want to share with you my insights on both. With Underdog Fantasy releasing the Best Ball Mania IV tournament a few months ago, excitement has been growing each day. Each week I want to break down what has changed from the previous week when it comes to NFL news, Best Ball news, and the top ADP Risers and Fallers on Underdog. It's useful to compare Best Ball to the stock market and day trading stocks, but instead of stocks, we are looking at NFL players, specifically those players' Average Draft Position (ADP). We are constantly wanting to find those players who are of value in our drafts and avoid some of the players who might be overvalued.
Each week I will look at the Underdog ADP tool on 4for4.com to examine the top 10 risers and the top 10 fallers at ADP. These shifts in ADP are often driven by the news we have coming in that week and what some of the major touts in the industry might be saying about said players.
Top 10 ADP Risers
| Rank | Player | Position | Team | July 17 ADP | ADP Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kyler Murray | QB | ARI | 153.2 | 9.2 |
| 2 | Alvin Kamara | RB | NO | 94.6 | 7.3 |
| 3 | Nico Collins | WR | HOU | 119.7 | 6.3 |
| 4 | Tim Patrick | WR | DEN | 170.4 | 6.2 |
| 5 | Skyy Moore | WR | KC | 106.2 | 5.3 |
| 6 | Jeff Wilson Jr. | RB | MIA | 182.3 | 3.7 |
| 7 | DeVante Parker | WR | NE | 192.5 | 3.5 |
| 8 | Clyde Edwards-Helaire | RB | KC | 204.5 | 3.5 |
| 9 | K.J. Osborn | WR | MIN | 146.2 | 3.2 |
| 10 | Gerald Everett | TE | LAC | 150.3 | 3.2 |
***These ten ADP risers are based on the dates 07/10/2023-07/17/23***
We are starting to see a few risers as news and notes start to come in on players and teams. The big news this week was DeAndre Hopkins signing with the Titans. We don't see much movement so far this week, but surely next week, the likes of Ryan Tannehill and maybe even Hopkins himself will show up on this report. The other big news was with Alvin Kamara and getting a little more clarity as he pleaded no contest but looks to still receive a suspension of some sort, but drafters are viewing this as positive news. Kyler Murray is the number one riser, as he hinted that his goal is to play in Week 1. This is often what we hear from all players coming off of a major injury. But it did make headlines, so drafters are holding onto any positive sentiments for Murray.
The other risers on this list are all names that are mostly depth pieces for their teams, but with a lack of news and signings, their roles are becoming more solidified. Nico Collins has been a riser all offseason and now has a 119.7 ADP which is starting to feel pretty steep. I have been a big fan of K.J. Osborn all offseason as he has been one of my highest drafted players, and now he is cracking the top 10 risers, which feels like the first time all offseason. The running backs outside of Kamara are Edwards-Helaire and Jeff Wilson, and while neither really stands out, they still will likely have solid roles on their teams. Gerald Everett was the only tight end to crack the list, and I think that is more tied to his connection to his quarterback in an offense that is pretty expensive at the QB, RB, and WR positions, so it allows you to buy in at a discount.
Tim Patrick and DeVante Parker continue to rise, but for me, their ADPs are seeming to be too expensive as there are many WR names out there later in drafts that can give you similar production, so they are fades now unless I want to complete a quarterback stack late in the draft.
Top 10 ADP Fallers
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