Thursday Showdown Week 8

NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage and uniqueness. Fading the highest-rostered plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge will come by identifying the best low-rostered plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.

This article will have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting, given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. FanDuel's pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You will usually need the slate's top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.

Advice in this article will pertain predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.

Game Theory

Vegas has seen the Bills struggle mightily of late – against worse teams than these Buccaneers – but still likes them to win handily at home. In other words, tonight, we target Bills... unless we don't. Plenty of Buccaneers' value is available, both as filler in a Bills-heavy lineup and on its own in a fight-the-current attack.

Injury Roundup

The biggest news of the night will be that of Baker Mayfield's (knee) status. Mayfield hasn't missed a snap all year, and he did return to limited practice this week, but the short turn time could keep coach Todd Bowles from pressing the issue. If Kyle Trask is forced to start, every Buccaneer pass-catcher takes a notable downgrade.

The Bills will again be thin at tight end, with Dawson Knox (wrist surgery) shelved and No. 3 Quintin Morris (ankle) absent from practice. Rookie Dalton Kincaid looks set for a high-usage encore.

Captain Consideration

• Stefon Diggs
• Josh Allen
• Dalton Kincaid
• Rachaad White
• Mike Evans

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Quarterback

Baker Mayfield (if active – FLEX only)

Mayfield looks like a true game-time decision tonight. If he suits up, he'll be intriguing against an injury-battered Bills defense that's been gashed for 270+ yards in 3 of 4 games. Mayfield is throwing downfield and even running a bit – he's posted scattered DraftKings lines of 21.4, 23.9, and 17.2. That makes for an interesting zag that comes 14% cheaper than Allen.

Running Back

Rachaad White (CPT or FLEX)
Ke'Shawn Vaughn (FLEX only)

White remains the clear-cut lead back here. Even as Vaughn has crept up to claim 26% snaps over the past three weeks, White hasn't fallen below 70%. That means he can meet fantasy expectations a number of ways, in a number of types of games. He's taken on 83% of team touches, after all.

Meanwhile, Vaughn remains one of the league's least efficient all-around backs. His last 36 rushes have totaled 85 scoreless yards.

Wide Receiver

Mike Evans (CPT or FLEX)
Chris Godwin (FLEX only)
Trey Palmer (FLEX only)

Evans remains one of the game's steadiest No. 1 wideouts, but his Captain resume is shaky. Mayfield's limitations do cap his upside, and we've still only seen one explosive week from Evans. His 171 yards in Week 2 were terrific, but they make up an outsized 37% of his season production. The Bills will focus heavily on Evans in their downfield zones, and a blowup seems unlikely – even if Mayfield is under center and fine.

Godwin has scored steadily as well, though with less flash and ceiling. He's still the slot specialist and his 9.1 aDOT pales to Evans' 12.9. Since Godwin relies more on volume and less on touchdown potential, he's not quite as attractive in the Captain spot.

Rookie Palmer has seized the No. 3 role; his snaps have climbed from 23 on Opening Day to 69.3 over the last four weeks. Consistent usage hasn't followed, though: aside from a notable Week 6, he's drawn just a 7% target share.

Tight End

Cade Otton (FLEX only)

Otton looks primed for some degree of a breakout. He's dominated snaps all year (97%) but with little usage to show for it. DraftKings hasn't priced him up from his 6-target Week 7; he's close to a free square at $3,000.

Under the Radar

Chase Edmonds (FLEX only)

Edmonds was just activated from IR this week but immediately practiced in full. It's anyone's guess as to how much he'll play, if at all, but he makes just about any build possible at $200.

Buffalo Bills

Quarterback

Josh Allen (CPT or FLEX)

At this point, Allen's week-to-week projections write themselves. He remains the catalyst of this offense every single week, topping 22 DraftKings points in 5 of 7 games thus far. He continues to run on the goal line and stacks well with any Buffalo receiver. There's more than enough value available to get Allen into any build.

Running Back

James Cook (CPT or FLEX)
Latavius Murray (FLEX only)

These roles look fairly cemented at this point: Cook leads the way in snaps, but not by much, while Murray gobbles up goal-line opportunities. The 10-year veteran has already taken 7 rushes from inside the 5-yard line. Murray also steals away whole drives and quarters, which makes it hard to project Cook's ceiling. Cook is dynamic, but he's not quite as strong a Captain play as Tampa Bay's White, who dominates his own backfield.

Wide Receiver

Stefon Diggs (CPT or FLEX)
Gabe Davis (FLEX only)

The Bills tend to keep their air attack concentrated among these two. Obviously, most of that credit goes to Diggs, whose 32% target share ranks among the league's highest. He's always an elite Captain play.

The real enigma, as always, is Davis. The once-upon-a-time playoff legend simply can't make himself a consistent part of the offense. Davis has posted lines of 6-92-1, 3-61-1, and 6-100-1 thus far... and 2-32, 1-35-1, 3-21, and 1-6 in the other games. Zone defense, which the Buccaneers run heavily, can fluster Davis and his considerable raw gifts.

Tight End

Dalton Kincaid (CPT or FLEX)

Kincaid was already out-targeting Dawson Knox, 27-22, before Knox had wrist surgery last week. Now, the impressive rookie looks poised for an every-down role – even No. 3 man Quintin Morris looks doubtful tonight. Kincaid may have already leapfrogged Gabe Davis as the second man for Allen. DraftKings didn't bump him enough after last week's breakout (8 of 8 targets, 75 yards).

Under the Radar

Deonte Harty (FLEX only)
Khalil Shakir (FLEX only)
Trent Sherfield (FLEX only)

One of these reserves could claim a portion of Dawson Knox's vacated opportunities. The only one with a real shot at a role is Harty, who's drawn 16 targets and scored a designed touchdown last week. Of course, this is only for the deepest and most contrarian of GPP plays.

Kicker & Defense

Any game with a 42.5 Vegas total will draw ample attention to at least one of its defenses, and make no mistake: the Bills will be popular. If backup Kyle Trask is forced to start, their roster percentage will be off the charts. Of course, that makes us want to zag another way in GPP contests, so they're a single-lineup fade.

There's more intrigue in Buffalo kicker Tyler Bass. He's one of the league's premier kickers, and the Buccaneers have been fiercely stingy in the red zone. Tampa Bay opponents have produced touchdowns on just 22% of trips inside the 20.