Thursday Showdown Week 7

NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage and uniqueness. Fading the highest-rostered plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge is going to come by identifying the best low-rostered plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.

This article will have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting, given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. FanDuel's pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You will usually need the slate's top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.

Advice in this article will pertain predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.

Game Theory

Vegas has been somewhat baffled by this game, thanks to the uncertainty around Trevor Lawrence's knee. After his injury last Sunday, the line opened New Orleans –3. His return to practice caused it to dip to New Orleans –1.

It should be noted, though, that the game total has dropped with the news of Lawrence practicing, from 42.5 to 39.5. In other words, Vegas expects a defensively-driven (and perhaps sloppy) evening of football. The Jaguars are considered tight favorites, but it's anyone's game, and scoring will likely come at a premium.

Injury Roundup

These two teams enter the game relatively healthy – assuming Trevor Lawrence can suit up. Wideout Zay Jones didn't practice all week and will sit tonight. Across the field, the Saints should get back runner Jamaal Williams from IR, and top receiver Chris Olave looks good to go.

Captain Consideration

• Travis Etienne Jr.
• Alvin Kamara
• Chris Olave
• Calvin Ridley
• Christian Kirk

Jacksonville Jaguars

Quarterback

Trevor Lawrence (FLEX)

Lawrence's availability likely means more to the value of his receivers than it does to him. Even a healthy Lawrence could burn Showdowners badly tonight. For one, Lawrence would be coming back from a knee injury on a short week; that makes him no lock to even finish tonight's game. A re-injury, or a blowout on either side, would likely land him well below what we need from our Captain.

Running Back

Travis Etienne Jr. (CPT or FLEX)
Tank Bigsby (FLEX)

Etienne has posted 17+ DraftKings points in 4 of 6 games thus far. He's used on all three downs, as evidenced by his massive 79% snap rate and 81% opportunity rate (carries plus targets). The Saints don't present a great matchup for opposing rushers, giving up just 96 ground yards a game. But as the lead back of the favored team, Etienne can excel in a number of ways.

Bigsby is no more than a middling reserve, so don't expect any real volume. He's taken just 18 carries and dropped 2 of his 3 targets thus far. But he could certainly find the end zone at some point tonight. The bulky rookie has taken on more touches than Etienne from inside the 5-yard line, and he's already scored twice,

Wide Receiver

Calvin Ridley (CPT or FLEX)
Christian Kirk (CPT or FLEX)

Zay Jones' absence robs us of a typically dependable, low-owned Jaguar, but it should at least boost things for Kirk and Ridley. Jacob Harris and Elijah Cooks will divvy up Jones' snaps, and they're no threat to draw much volume away. Kirk and Ridley account for 44% of team targets and 70% of the air yards.

Of the two, there's more general upside in Ridley, who boasts more of a splash-play profile. He dwarfs Kirk in aDOT (12.3 to 8.2) and red-zone target share (6 to 3). In other words, Lawrence is looking for yards and touchdowns from his dynamic newcomer, with Kirk established as more of a security blanket.

Kirk has posted high-volume games in his own right, including lines of 11-110 and 8-84. But if one of these guys is going to erupt and therefore pay off as Captain, it will most likely be Ridley.

Tight End

Evan Engram (CPT or FLEX)

Engram, who has drawn 5, 8, 8, 8, and 7 targets thus far, always feels underpriced. In fact, you could definitely talk me into a Captain play, if I'm in a deep GPP and looking to zag hard from the pack. With several wideouts sharing so much Captaining, Engram could score right on their level and with fewer eyes on him.

Under the Radar

None; what you see is what you get with the tightly concentrated Jaguars.

New Orleans Saints

Quarterback

Derek Carr (FLEX)

Carr has lugged his low-impact, low-upside attack from Las Vegas to New Orleans. He still floods the underneath with targets, keeping a tight cap on his yardage and touchdown ceilings. Inconsistent at feeding Chris Olave the deep ball, Carr simply doesn't project well into the Captain role. Even last week's 50 attempts and 353 yards netted a ho-hum 20.3 DraftKings points.

Running Back

Alvin Kamara (CPT or FLEX)
Jamaal Williams – if healthy (FLEX)

Kamara has unsurprisingly stepped right into his usual three-down, high-volume role. He's returned from suspension with 25, 25, and 27 opportunities, averaging 19.2 DraftKings points along the way.

Of course, we've yet to see Kamara do it with a viable No. 2 back behind him. Rookie Kendre Miller has applied little pressure, but trusted veteran Williams should return this week. Still, it's unlikely that we'll see the Mark Ingram Treatment come out in full effect. This backfield belongs to Kamara on all three downs, and he's a lock for hefty volume if nothing else. Williams, if healthy, will likely play only a small, change-of-pace role.

Wide Receiver

Chris Olave (CPT or FLEX)
Michael Thomas (CPT or FLEX)
Rashid Shaheed (FLEX)

Olave has established himself as a brilliant young receiver, but he hasn't seen the expected Year 2 leap in his stat line. Much of that can be chalked up to the arrival of Carr, who's yet to fully connect with his new receivers. Carr has rarely thrown downfield well anyway, which hampers Olave's upside. Still, he's established as the Saints' top target, and he's always a threat to erupt.

Thomas makes for an interesting wild card. Much of the field will roster him, but few will Captain him, and those few could benefit mightily. Thomas famously hasn't found the end zone in 13 months, though his usage remains steady. He's drawn 8, 9, 9, 6, 7, and 8 looks thus far, including 3 from inside the 10. Olave won't fit comfortably into a build with Etienne/Kamara and two other strong wideouts, but Thomas will.

Shaheed could easily score 5 or 20 points tonight. He's locked down the slot job, gathering 66% of offensive snaps, and he's proven himself lethal down the field. Amazingly, he's drawn 25% of the team's attempted air yards on just 12% of the targets. He's also taken on five rushes thus far.

Tight End

Taysom Hill (FLEX)

With Juwan Johnson shelved, Hill is more than a gadget player to the Saints – he's a full-time tight end. Hill wasn't a part of the air attack until last week, when he broke out for seven catches on eight targets. (Of course, he also took a carry and threw a pass.) He's been priced up for this matchup, though, to the point that he's tough to fit in with all the high-level wideouts. Rarely is it wise to meet a new, premium salary that's been inflated by a 50-attempt game.

Under the Radar

Foster Moreau (FLEX)

Moreau, a former teammate of Carr's in Las Vegas, also posted major season-highs last week (4 of 4 targets, 33 yards). He carries a strong red-zone profile from his time with the Raiders and fits well with the short ball-minded Carr. Much of the field will jump at Hill, but Moreau makes for a much more unique play.

Kickers and Defenses

The Saints' Blake Grupe is intriguing; he kicks for a shaky offense that bogs down in the red zone, hitting the end zone just 37% of the time (fifth-worst in football). He's also hit 3 of 4 tries from 50+ yards.

Both defenses are somewhat in play, but the Jaguars pique my interest more. They're at least in the league's upper tier in terms of pressuring the passer and forcing turnovers.