Thursday Showdown Week 4

NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage and uniqueness. Fading the highest-rostered plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge is going to come by identifying the best low-rostered plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.

This article will have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting, given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. FanDuel's pricing is the same for both MVP and FLEX spots. You will usually need the slate's top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel strategy revolves around unique FLEX builds.

Advice in this article will pertain predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.

Game Theory

The Packers are 2-1, yet divisional underdogs at Lambeau, which is noteworthy. Clearly, Vegas isn't impressed with Jordan Love's successful yet shaky start to the year. With a ho-hum total of 45.5, there isn't a ton of scoring upside in play here. Bettors expect the Lions to grind out a close win – but they also note that the Lions look like the slightly better neutral-field team.

Injury Roundup

Aaron Jones practiced on a limited basis this week and should return from his two-game absence. Teammate Christian Watson, however, has yet to be cleared to make his season debut. Across the field, Detroit should get lead runner David Montgomery back tonight.

Captain Consideration

• David Montgomery (if active)
• Aaron Jones (if active)
• Sam LaPorta
• Romeo Doubs
• Amon-Ra St. Brown

Detroit Lions

Quarterback

Jared Goff (FLEX only)

Goff isn't a play so much due to his arm. Only the Falcons and Cardinals have thrown the ball less vs. expectation than Goff and the Lions, who would much to pound the ball and throw quick slants all evening. But the better (and favored) of the two quarterbacks is always in play, even if the upside doesn't make you drool.

Running Back

David Montgomery (CPT or FLEX – if active)
Jahmyr Gibbs (FLEX only)
Craig Reynolds (FLEX only)

Obviously, this is dependent upon on Montgomery's health and availability tonight. But if he plays, he'll likely lead the Detroit backfield in touches, as he did handily over the first 2 weeks (38 to Gibbs' 23). Gibbs is much more exciting, but this is a movie we've seen before, with Gibbs in the old D'Andre Swift role. Last season, Swift suited up for 14 games but drew 15+ touches in only 3 of them. Gibbs would make a fantastic Captain choice around $12,000, but there's simply no reason he should cost 41% more than the clear rushing leader.

Reynolds is only in play if Montgomery sits. And even then, he'd be an uninspiring choice, as he's simply not relevant enough for his $2,800 price tag. He may see a goal-line carry or two, but he's not a direct backup to Montgomery.

Wide Receiver

Amon-Ra St. Brown (CPT or FLEX)
Josh Reynolds (FLEX only)
Kalif Raymond (FLEX only)

St. Brown continues to dominate this depth chart, claiming 48% of their targets thus far. That's up significantly from even last year's impressive 41% share. He's also drawn 3 looks from inside the 10 after just 7 all of last season. He's plug-and-play as FLEX in any Showdown and boasts the upside to be a Captain any given week. In a matchup like this one, with no dominant receiver on the other side, he's a free square. Virtually everyone will roster him, and you won't want to be left out when he catches 6+ balls. (He's done it 12 of the last 14 times he's suited up.)

Reynolds and Raymond are always dart throws, but they'll pay off if Goff is forced to throw more than expected. Remember that cashing high in a Showdown is about working against expectations, so stacking cheap receivers for a shootout is never bad. Raymond, the pure deep threat, comes much cheaper, while Reynolds failed to draw a target last week.

Tight End

Sam LaPorta (CPT or FLEX)

LaPorta has been solid in all three games as a rookie, but Week 3 was his true breakout. Goff only threw the ball 33 times Sunday, but 11 of them went to LaPorta, matching St. Brown for the team lead. And all he turned them into was 8 receptions, 84 yards, and a long touchdown that showcased just how valuable he can be on all levels of the field. I had expected an even bigger salary uptick than this; if he's the definitive 1B in this attack, then he should cost more than $8,000. There's Captain value, too, fresh off those 11 targets.

Under the Radar

Marvin Jones Jr (FLEX only)

Jones' value doesn't get much lower - he hasn't been targeted since his disastrous Week 1, a span of 62 offensive snaps. He's dirt-cheap but only playable in one or two deep-GPP multi-entries.

Green Bay Packers

Quarterback

Jordan Love (FLEX only)

Love's start to the year has made for a great story: the Packers are 2-1 against all odds, while Love has thrown 7 touchdowns to just a single interception. But a look into any deeper metric suggests chaos on the horizon. Among 34 qualifying quarterbacks, Love currently sits 33rd in completion rate and 23rd in success rate, and 3 of those 7 touchdowns did come against the pitiful Bears. These new Lions are no longer pushovers on defense, so their opposing passers are no longer must-plays.

Running Back

Aaron Jones (CPT or FLEX – if active)
AJ Dillon (FLEX only)

If Jones returns, he'll make for a popular Captain play. He hasn't suited up since turning 11 touches into 127 yards and a touchdown in the season opener. Jones and Dillon typically split snaps fairly evenly, though Jones is more involved in both facets of the offense.

If Jones can't suit up, Dillon will be even more popular than that. He'd be the unquestioned workhorse on early downs. Still, a fade wouldn't be the worst play. Dillon drew heavy rostering last week, then proceeded to touch the ball just 11 times (for 33 yards) against the Falcons. He also wasn't targeted in the passing game - No. 3 back Patrick Taylor drew 4 looks of his own. Dillon is a one-cut, through-the-hole runner, which isn't as effective when you downgrade the air attack from Aaron Rodgers to Jordan Love.

Wide Receiver

Romeo Doubs (CPT or FLEX)
Jayden Reed (FLEX only)

What the Packers wideouts lack in excitement, they make up for in volume. This is not a deep group, so these two have laid claim to 67% of the team's wide receiver targets thus far. Doubs makes for the safer play; he draws that volume while working downfield much more often. He also draws attention near the goal line, with 4 targets already from inside the 10-yard line.

Tight End

Luke Musgrave (FLEX only)

The impressive rookie turned heads in camp, drawing attention from Jordan Love on all levels of the field; onlookers made wild comparisons in response. We got our first glimpse of that last week, with Musgrave drawing 8 of Love's 44 targets. He pairs especially well in a lineup with the Lions defense - a solid volume projection between the 20s, with no real touchdown upside to ding you.

Under the Radar

Dontayvion Wicks (FLEX only)

Wicks isn't quite cheap as you'd like to see, but if you're differentiating for a shootout, he fits.

Kicker and Defense

Again, Vegas doesn't expect a barn burner tonight. The 46 total isn't particularly low, but it also isn't high, and that keeps the kickers in play. The Lions, for their part, have been poor in the red zone to open the season.

The defenses are a bit murkier. You want to chase low scoring but also splash plays like sacks and takeaways. On that front, the Lions are squarely in play. Love sports a 7:1 touchdown to interception ratio, but he has put up more than his share of near-misses. And Detroit is pressuring and sacking the passer at a top-10 rate.