Thursday Showdown Week 2

NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage and uniqueness. Fading the highest-rostered plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge is going to come by identifying the best low-rostered plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.

This article will have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting, given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. FanDuel's pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You will usually need the slate's top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.

Advice in this article will pertain predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.

Game Theory

This matchup famously played out in Week 2 of last season, with Kirk Cousins and the Vikings folding badly in a 24-7 trouncing. The Eagles turned 3 takeaways into big offense: Jalen Hurts completed 26 of 31 throws for 333 yards and a touchdown, then combined with the runners to total 163 yards and 2 more on the ground. And Week 1 didn't dissuade us much from that: the Vikings flailed and fell to the shaky Buccaneers, while the Eagles jumped atop the Patriots and held on to win. Vegas gives the Eagles (-7) here, which is a bit hefty, considering both were 2022 playoff teams, and projects a final score of 27.75-20.75. Most of the DFS world will be riding the Eagles offense (and defense) heavily in cash settings.

Injury Roundup

Running back Kenneth Gainwell has been ruled out for the Eagles (ribs), ceding the backfield to D'Andre Swift and Boston Scott. Star cornerback James Bradberry has also been ruled out, easing some of the pressure on Justin Jefferson.

Captain Consideration

• Jalen Hurts
• DeVonta Smith
• A.J. Brown
• Justin Jefferson
• D'Andre Swift

Minnesota Vikings

Quarterback

Kirk Cousins (FLEX only)

Cousins isn't an inspiring play, and it's not only due to recency bias after his faceplant in this matchup last year. He looked shaky at best in the Opening Day loss, feeding the ball to Justin Jefferson downfield but producing little offense on his own. He works as a FLEX in a lineup built for a shootout, but in general, this isn't an ideal “shoehorn in both the quarterbacks” spot.

Running Back

Alexander Mattison (FLEX only)

The Eagles defense isn't particularly dominant against the run; they were gashed several times in 2022 and ranked just 24th in yards allowed per run. Still, Mattison has yet to show he's a high-upside (and therefore captain-worthy) type of play. He's produced just 3.7 yards per rush since 2021.

Wide Receiver

Justin Jefferson (CPT or FLEX)
K.J. Osborn (FLEX only)
Jordan Addison (FLEX only)

Jefferson is All-World, but he's facing a truly elite secondary as Kirk Cousins fights for air against a truly elite front seven. When these teams clashed last Week 2, Jefferson caught just 6 of 12 targets for 48 yards. He caught just a single ball against Darius Slay, who will play shadow tonight in the absence of James Bradberry. Make no mistake: I won't be caught without Jefferson and his massive roster number aside from the deepest of tournaments. But expectations should be tempered, and looking elsewhere at Captain is a way to stray from the pack.

The always-forgotten Osborn tied rookie Jordan Addison with 6 targets in the opener, yet he checks in $1,400 cheaper here. Osborn may lack the clear upside of Addison, but he makes for an ideal mid-range punt play in a strikingly similar role.

Addison should enjoy light and broken coverages for much of the evening. Last Sunday, he cashed in on the Buccaneers' fear of Jefferson for a 39-yard touchdown over the top. It's not very tempting to stack Vikings in this matchup, but the GPP upside is there.

Tight End

T.J. Hockenson (CPT or FLEX)

Hockenson doesn't dazzle, but his rock-solid role provides big volume upside at this Captain price tag. Over 11 games as a Viking, he's drawn 20% of team targets (to Justin Jefferson's 27%) and caught 6+ balls 6 times. His 4.4 yards per catch from the opener doesn't feel sustainable. A line of, say, 8 for 65 and a touchdown would bring home 3x value – and there's GPP-winning potential beyond that.

Under the Radar

(none)

Philadelphia Eagles

Quarterback

Jalen Hurts (CPT or FLEX)

As the favored home quarterback, Hurts will slot into virtually every non-contrarian lineup. Given his dual-threat awesomeness, it's hard to picture a night in which he isn't a big part of the DFS equation. The key to playing Hurts will be stacking him appropriately, which we'll discuss in a moment. Don't consider any less than 90-95% exposure to him.

Running Back

D'Andre Swift (CPT or FLEX)
Boston Scott (FLEX only)

Here comes the chalk. With Kenneth Gainwell already ruled out, it's not insider info that Swift and Scott will dominate the Eagles backfield Tonight night. There's no guarantee Swift will win the production battle; both were treated as pure backups in Week 1, totaling 4 touches for 13 yards. But Swift did claim 19 of the pair's 27 snaps, and it's unlikely the team secured him $6 million to joust with Scott. He definitely boasts the best upside profile.

That said... there's still a bit too much spread in their salaries. Both backs carry just about the same floors and ceilings, at least in terms of volume. And there's a non-zero chance the Eagles jump to a lead, then mothball the injury-prone Swift. The $1,800 discount allows for both roster variance and, perhaps, an upgrade elsewhere. Swift + Osborn looks just as tempting to me as, say, Scott + Hockenson.

Wide Receiver

DeVonta Smith (CPT or FLEX)
A.J. Brown (CPT or FLEX)

It's hard to go wrong stacking Hurts with either of his star wideouts, who posted near-identical Week 1 production (7-79-0 for Brown, 7-47-1 for Smith on 10 targets apiece). Or with both of them, who project to overwhelm Vikings cornerbacks Byron Murphy and Akayleb Evans. Or with both of them plus tight end Dallas Goedert (see below). This mega-talented offense projects to 28 points, and those two would be a big part of that math.

Of the two, the value lies with Smith, who comes $1,600 cheaper but just as red-hot. Over his last 10 games, he's averaged a line of 6 for 83 and scored 6 touchdowns on a 26% target share. Compare that to Brown: 6 for 89 (with 5 touchdowns) on 27% over that span. Again: there is nothing to wring one's hands over with Brown, who boasts as much week-to-week upside as anyone in football. But he's priced appropriately, while Smith's ho-hum Week 1 has made his Week 2 value scream out. His 6.7 yards per catch would have been much higher had he been able to haul in a near-miss long ball.

Tight End

Dallas Goedert (FLEX only)

Speaking of that 10-game Eagles stretch, Goedert's receiving role has been discouragingly small throughout it (15% of targets). And he hardly showed up in the Week 1 boxscore, failing to catch his only target. Still, Goedert produces consistently at a difficult position, and he comes a bit too cheaply here. He's cleared 45 yards in 10 of his last 15 games, with 10+ DraftKings points in 10 of them.

Under the Radar

Rashaad Penny (FLEX only)

A surprise scratch on Opening Day, Penny will find himself in some contrarian lineups if he's active tonight. Owner of a sparkling 5,7 career yards per rush, it's easy to see Penny salting away a late win with volume.

Kicker AND D/ST

The Eagles D/ST will be by far the most sensible (and popular) of this bunch. Last year, of course, they sacked Cousins twice and forced three interceptions in this matchup. Cousins looked like a deer in headlights against this scheme, and no Vikings were able to produce. It's easy to predict a repeat and jump on the Eagles D/ST, which makes sense in an aggressive 5:1 Eagles build. It pairs well with a Viking who's more of a volume than a touchdown threat; T.J. Hockenson, perhaps.

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