See dozens of Player Spotlights here >>>

The fantasy football industry has evolved dramatically over the past 25 years. What began as a niche hobby for a handful of football fanatics who delighted in statistical analysis has transformed into a multi-billion-dollar industry. This industry employs tens of thousands of people, all tasked with helping millions of customers to succeed.

As the industry has expanded, so too has the collective talent and expertise of the analysts within it. These analysts now dissect every player, team, and scenario from nearly every conceivable angle. Having had the great privilege to be part of the industry since its earliest days, I can confidently assert that Brock Purdy is among the most challenging players to analyze in the history of the industry.

An Unlikely Timeline

• Predicted to be a priority free agent after graduating from Iowa State.
• Chosen as "Mr. Irrelevant" with the final pick of the 2022 draft.
• The 49ers were wholly invested in Trey Lance and retained veteran Jimmy Garoppolo as a safety net.
• Lance was injured in Week 2, thrusting Garoppolo back into the spotlight.
• Garoppolo sustained an injury in Week 13, which led to Purdy's insertion.
• The rookie not only succeeded but thrived, steering the 49ers to an offensive resurgence and the NFC Championship Game.
• Purdy tore his UCL in the NFC Championship Game, which raised doubts about his readiness for the 2023 season.
• The 49ers signed veteran Sam Darnold during the offseason and refused to entertain trade offers for Lance.
• In the initial days of training camp, Purdy was surprisingly cleared to return to practice and team drills.

Even Unlikelier Statistics

Purdy isn't the first young quarterback to step into a playoff-caliber team and maintain stability. Two of the best-known examples are Tom Brady and Ben Roethlisberger. Brady played the role of game manager when he took over for Drew Bledsoe, and Roethlisberger's task during his first Super Bowl season was to avoid mistakes. However, Purdy didn't merely hand off the ball and avoid turnovers; he elevated an already efficient 49ers offense to an elite level.

Let's first examine the team offense, with and without Purdy.

Table: 49ers Offense, Before and With Brock Purdy

The offense surged, delivering nearly ten more points per game, primarily due to a substantial increase in efficiency. The number of plays per game and total yards slightly improved, but the points-per-play, especially touchdown efficiency, soared.

This leads us to Purdy's performance:

• 6-0 (Purdy started five games but came in early in Week 13 against Miami)
• 110 completions
• 161 attempts
• 68.3% completion rate
• 1,308 passing yards
• 8.1 yards per attempt
• 13 passing touchdowns
• 8.1% touchdown rate
• 3 interceptions
• 10 rushing yards

For context, this is what his six-game run looks like pro-rated over a full 17-game schedule:

• 312 completions
• 456 attempts
• 3,706 passing yards
• 36.8 passing touchdowns
• 8.5 interceptions
• 28 rushing yards
• 298 fantasy points

Where would 298 fantasy points rank in a season?

• 2018 – QB10
• 2019 – QB6
• 2020 – QB12
• 2021 – QB12
• 2022 – QB8
• 5-Year Average – QB10

The Supporting Cast is Exemplary

Before evaluating the sustainability of Purdy's 2022 performance, we need to acknowledge his favorable circumstances.

• Head coach Kyle Shanahan is a proven offensive mastermind.
• Running back Christian McCaffrey is arguably the league's best, especially as a receiver.
• Receivers Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk rank among the best duos in the NFC.
• Tight end George Kittle is a top-5 playmaker at his position.
• The offensive line is a top-10 unit, as per Footballguys offensive line expert Matt Bitonti.

So, are we implying that Brock Purdy could be a top-10 quarterback this year?

ABSOLUTELY NOT.

Don't let Purdy's remarkable six-game debut mislead you like a siren luring a sailboat onto the rocks. Because the only way Purdy can deliver that kind of fantasy value is to either:

A) Sustain last year's efficiency over an entire season

B) Dramatically increase his passing volume

Unsustainable Efficiency

How do we know that Purdy's debut metrics aren't sustainable? NFL history gives us the answer. We conducted a screening for quarterbacks whose performance mirrored Purdy's 2022 results:

1. Criteria: Pass Attempts >= 150
2. Criteria: Touchdown Rate >= 8.0%
3. Criteria: Completion Rate >= 68.0%
4. Criteria: Yards per Attempt >= 8.1

The outcome? This has only occurred five times in modern NFL history.

Table: NFL Quarterbacks who met all four criteria (1960-Present)

Are we being overly strict with our search criteria? What if we relax our parameters slightly? Let's examine all the instances in NFL history where a quarterback has achieved the following:

1. Criteria: Pass Attempts >= 150
2. Criteria: Touchdown Rate >= 7.0%
3. Criteria: Completion Rate >= 65.0%
4. Criteria: Yards per Attempt >= 7.5

Even after significantly lowering our efficiency thresholds, we're still left with rare occurrences. Only 28 such instances have been recorded in the league's history.

Table: NFL Quarterbacks who met all four criteria (1960-Present)

Observations:

• Only 28 occurrences in the modern era
• Joe Montana achieved this only once
• Steve Young accomplished it only once
• Kurt Warner managed it only once
• Ben Roethlisberger did it just once
• Patrick Mahomes II has done it once
• Drew Brees pulled it off twice
• Peyton Manning managed it twice
• Tom Brady achieved it twice
• Russell Wilson has done it three times
• Aaron Rodgers has done it five times

The league's finest quarterbacks haven't been able to sustain what Purdy accomplished last year over an entire season, and they've seldom come within 10% of those levels. Unless you consider Purdy to be the most efficient quarterback in league history, you must anticipate regression.

The Shanahan System = Reliable Floor

While it's clear last year's six-game sample is an unfair baseline for Purdy's upside, it's essential to acknowledge head coach Kyle Shanahan's importance in the equation. Shanahan has managed 15 NFL offenses throughout his career, consistently delivering above-average results.

Table: Kyle Shanahan Offenses (NFL Career)

Observations:

• On average, the 49ers quarterbacks attempt 536 passes per season, but curiously the last two seasons – which are 17 games instead of 16 – the team has only thrown the ball 513 times per season.
• Shanahan's system is QB-friendly, generating an average completion rate of 64.6% in San Francisco while averaging 7.9 yards per attempt.
• The touchdown rate of 4.7% is quite good but significantly below Purdys 8.1% rate last year.
• The interception rate of 2.7% is 1.5x as high as Purdy's rate last year.

Recent Stats

Projections

Final Thoughts

Brock Purdy has single-handedly dispelled the concept of Mr. Irrelevant, regardless of what unfolds in the future. Stepping into a contending lineup as the third-string quarterback, winning six consecutive games, driving an offense to 30+ points per game, and making it to the NFC Championship Game is nothing short of legendary. The torn UCL was a prominent question mark all offseason, but now that he's cleared for training camp, we're compelled to view him as the clear starter based on what the coaching staff and front office have stated and enacted.

There are few guarantees in football, but we can assert with 100% certainty that Purdy's 2022 efficiency metrics won't hold up. However, we also acknowledge that Kyle Shanahan's system provides a solid foundation, regardless of who is at the helm. Purdy's physical limitations initially obscured his college draft profile, but it has been revealed that he's a brilliant information processor. Shanahan requires a quarterback who can listen, comprehend, and execute. He doesn't want a freelancer; in that respect, Purdy might be an ideal match for the 49ers offense.

Assuming Purdy's efficiency generally aligns with Shanahan's system norms, rather than replicating his Hall of Fame caliber performance from the previous year's six-game sample, he is projected to be a low-tier fantasy QB2. Remember, he doesn't contribute much as a runner, and it's virtually impossible to be a fantasy starter nowadays without either running or throwing the ball more than 600 times. Purdy will likely do neither, even if he remains healthy and starts the entire season. Could you find a worse option than Purdy as a QB2 in Superflex leagues? Certainly. However, unless you believe he's the next Aaron Rodgers, keeping him lower on your priority list would be best.